6 home dogs for Week 2

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

They don't care if 70% is on one team if the money is even on both sides. Percentages don't mean shit. Books make a killing on halftime lines in the NFL anyway. Anything they lose to the public on a full game they usually get back with square bets people make at HT

Exactly. Remember this a buddy once told me, he had a friend who was part CEO or some crap of the MGM Grand in Vegas. End of the day when all sporting events are over and done with we always make more then we lose, ALWAYS!!!!

Which means even though you cashed out end of the week $4000 and your happy as fuk, theres some other joe blow who owes $4000 and another idiot that owes $5000 and so on and so forth.

[JR007]

Some of these are around key numbers some are not ...teaser ramifications are here as well...wait for the late moves

[Limey]

At S(quare)portsbook:

Cincinnati +1.5 -- 83% of bets on Baltimore
Detroit +4.5 -- 96% of bets on Philly
Washington +3 -- 85% of bets on Houston
Jets +2 -- 96% of bets on New England
San Francisco +5 -- 95% of bets on New Orleans



Like clockwork. Will all of these cash? No. But I'm guessing if you play the six, at worst you split, with a good chance of going 4-2.

Take the points, though -- no ML's.

I like the Bengals chances and the 'Skins game is a really interesting one, but Detroit are still poor until proven otherwise and coming off a heart-breaking loss, the Jets were lucky to split 1-1 with the Patriots last season and for all the rebound need in San Francisco I just don't think they're a good or well-enough-coached team to trouble the Saints unduly. Still, I don't think home dogs are a bad approach.

Now just learn to count to five and you could make a killing

[ParlayJunkie]

Eagles are going to cover. That one looked great and still does. Spread is already at -6 on my site now.

[No coincidences]

Cincy is an underdog bec they got their asses whooped by the patriots

Exactly, and if there's anything the public bettor does well, it's base their opinions of a team's next game on what they saw last.

Biggest fallacy in sports. Vegas knows this, and they set the lines accordingly.

[No coincidences]

>???

What do you mean, GM? To win it all?

[No coincidences]

They don't care if 70% is on one team if the money is even on both sides. Percentages don't mean shit. Books make a killing on halftime lines in the NFL anyway. Anything they lose to the public on a full game they usually get back with square bets people make at HT

True, but that's where RLM comes into play.

Again, see KC last week.

IMHO, the games I listed should be leans for everyone because you get a home team at + money (some at night). If the line moves against the public's support late, pound the shit out of the other side.

This thread is just a reference/starting point. I'm not fully supporting these picks until I see where sharp money goes right before kickoff. But they are worth keeping an eye on.

[jaks440]

I immediately liked the SF line -- the books take advantage not only of people liking the Saints but seeing a bad performance from SF last week (28 points under the spread). In the NFL, those past performances mean less in reality than in the public's mind and the bookies take advantage of that!

[Rod1010]

the bengals win 21-18

[No coincidences]

I immediately liked the SF line -- the books take advantage not only of people liking the Saints but seeing a bad performance from SF last week (28 points under the spread). In the NFL, those past performances mean less in reality than in the public's mind and the bookies take advantage of that!

If you take a favored visitor -- let alone one at more than -3 or 4 -- you're just asking for trouble in my opinion.

That's got a 20-17 Saints win written all over it.

[Goat Milk]

oh i thought you said you wanted balty at Even after that jets game ended. anyway i am assuming Ed is not playing.

[JR007]

A respected capper on another website......said....watch the history of the moneyline movement to get a true indicator, not the moneyline/spread.......just the moneyline

[Firefox14]

I would think that the spread with be indicative of the money line??? No???

[filter15]

I wouldnt just bet theese on the principle they are home dogs

[EastsidaProduct]

I'm with you on 3-out-of-5. Can't see the Jets do much of anything. The Texans are the real deal, my man. BOL
________________________________________ ________________________________________ _________

[DaAce]

san fran and washington

[lakerboy]

They don't care if 70% is on one team if the money is even on both sides. Percentages don't mean shit. Books make a killing on halftime lines in the NFL anyway. Anything they lose to the public on a full game they usually get back with square bets people make at HT

90% of those people post here

[letitburn]

At S(quare)portsbook:

Cincinnati +1.5 -- 83% of bets on Baltimore
Detroit +4.5 -- 96% of bets on Philly
Washington +3 -- 85% of bets on Houston
Jets +2 -- 96% of bets on New England
San Francisco +5 -- 95% of bets on New Orleans



Like clockwork. Will all of these cash? No. But I'm guessing if you play the six, at worst you split, with a good chance of going 4-2.

Take the points, though -- no ML's.

good luck

[zacharyj53]

I can see betting 4 of the 5 NFL plays but I could not put money on the Lions.

[PoweRay]

I like Cincinnati to win

[No coincidences]

3-0-1 with the big one pending for MNF. Would've been a clean sweep if the Skins hadn't collapsed.

Just realized I couldn't even count right in the initial post.



Point stands, though.

[bobbyk1133]

Nice calls. WSH blew an easy win, but so did PHI. I picked CIN to win the division and knew they had to have this game, but i thought it was going to be too close a game to make it an official pick. The most shocking game for me was the Jets. NE had a TD lead twice and no Revis in 2nd half.

[lakerboy]

i really think you win 0,1, or 2 of these max.
public can bet on whom the best team is, it's up to Vegas to adjust the line.
in these cases you should have waited til kickoff for more points.

snowball you need to get some education on how lines are set. the fact you thought no home dogs might cash tells me that. you should know better.

[No coincidences]

The only thing that worries me about SF tomorrow is the fact that these picks are at 3-0-1 for the week. Would be more comfortable if at least one of them failed, because as you know, oddsmakers aren't crazy about letting too many trends settle in.

I went 4-2 with home dogs last week and 3-0-1 this week -- that's a pretty dangerous run for line watchers who might get greedy tomorrow. We'll see.

[kidkonggolf]

That would have been a real nice ML Home Underdog Parley payoff!!! BOL

[No coincidences]

Niners complete the semi-perfect week at 4-0-1.

[No coincidences]

Carolina, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Denver, Seattle, Chicago all open as Week 3 home dogs.

I'll take a look later this week. I'm spent from this rollercoaster ride.