In the NFL, it’s a long way from the hot, humid days of August to the cool evening breezes in September. Yet, the more things change, the more things stay the same. At the heart of handicapping the NFL for any statistical guru, it a team’s ability to control the line of scrimmage. As a result, we have come to learn that in the last 10 years NFL teams who outrush their opponent by 30+ yards are 1263-402 (75.9%). True to form, NFL team’s who outrushed their foes by 30+ yards in Week 1 were 7-2 ATS. We also know that turnovers are the components that are hardest to handicap, yet most meaningful. In the last 10 years, NFL teams who held a 3+ or more TO advantage in a game vs. their opponent were 525-37 (93.4%). With NFL head coaches being fully aware of my research, there were no such occurrences in Week 1. Thirdly, though every half point is critical when placing any wager, we know that concept can be a bit overrated when selecting your favorite NFL team to cover the spread. In fact, in games where the opening line is 6 or less, the straight up winner covers over 80% of the time. In Week 1m considering every game on the board, regardless of the line, teams who won the game straight up covered 15/16 games based on the opening Pinnacle line. The lesson is clear, shop for value whenever you are placing your wager, but don’t let the pointspread get in the way of your handicap in competitively priced games.
One thing that didn’t stay the same from August to September was “scoring the football”. It was an unusually high scoring preseason in the NFL. The linemaker used an average over/under line of 26 points per game, his normal average. Yet, scoring went off the chart, with teams combining for over 40 PPG, resulting in an OU record of 27-27-1 ATS. Totals handicappers were more than a little curious to see if this would impact Game 1 under lines, and if scoring would remain relatively high once the regular season began. Though the linemakers stayed true to form in posting an average over/under line of 42.3, scoring was decidedly lower with teams combining to average only 37.2 PPG resulting in a 5-11 over/under mark.
One thing that didn’t stay the same from August to September was “scoring the football”. It was an unusually high scoring preseason in the NFL. The linemaker used an average over/under line of 26 points per game, his normal average. Yet, scoring went off the chart, with teams combining for over 40 PPG, resulting in an OU record of 27-27-1 ATS. Totals handicappers were more than a little curious to see if this would impact Game 1 under lines, and if scoring would remain relatively high once the regular season began. Though the linemakers stayed true to form in posting an average over/under line of 42.3, scoring was decidedly lower with teams combining to average only 37.2 PPG resulting in a 5-11 over/under mark.