Anyone Use the Hilton Contest for Picks

[falconticket]

I was just looking at the website for the Hilton Supercontest for this year. It tells you how many players are on specific teams. Seems like a pretty good indication of sharps picks. Baltimore is high on the list with 100 teams. Balt was getting 2.5 on there sheet though. KC is pretty high with 67 teams. SD has 52 and jets are 2nd to last with only 19. Pretty cool contest, would like to get in but I think you have to be present to put your picks in. Does anyone look this contest over/ any useful info there?
oops. Wrong thread, How can i move over to NFL?

[WorkHorse]

Falcon, you are on the right track my friend.

I play Steve Fezzik's plays every week. Steve has won the past two contest and won almost $200,000 last year hitting 64.9%. He went 3-2 yesterday.

If you chose to follow like I do....play every play because there are ups and downs. The key is where he ends up at the end of the year. He's pretty solid in NFL by evidence of the past two Hilton wins.

GL

[falconticket]

I was all over the contest yesterday, I didn't use his plays in particular but I used the highest played teams from all the contestants to give me Baltimore and Kansas City last night. Good day for me. I will be looking forward to seeing what is played next week. I think they release them on sat.

[ATL5150]

When do they post the picks on the hilton website? Saturday?

[boeing power]

Falcon, you are on the right track my friend.

I play Steve Fezzik's plays every week. Steve has won the past two contest and won almost $200,000 last year hitting 64.9%. He went 3-2 yesterday.

If you chose to follow like I do....play every play because there are ups and downs. The key is where he ends up at the end of the year. He's pretty solid in NFL by evidence of the past two Hilton wins.

GL

he actually went 3-1-1, he got a push on the browns at +3 as did I, i bought the half point as the line was 2.5 at kickoff

[phillybadboy]

he actually went 3-1-1, he got a push on the browns at +3 as did I, i bought the half point as the line was 2.5 at kickoff

sup dude, so you bet nfl too?

[falconticket]

I think they post Saturday. I just Google's it and found the website. I can't believe I didn't at least know about this resource years ago. Could be very valuable once they start posting the leaders and we can see who's hot.

[streakyrocket22]

great stuff falcon...do you know if Steve Fezzik has a website?? or do you have the link for the Hilton Contest?

Thanks for the help!

[VegasPlayer]

Careful - Word is that Fezzik is a great contest player but not so good capper overall.

[vyomguy]

Their top 5 plays went 2-2-1...not so sharp i say.

[illcrushem]

http://hiltoncontestproxy.com/picks/category/picks/

http://hiltoncontestproxy.com/picks/2010/09/11/2010-hilton-contest-week-1-consensus-picks/

http://hiltoncontestproxy.com/picks/

just something i found

[falconticket]

Yes I agree that it is not a sure thing or lock of course. I am just going to use it in conjunction with my own picks. It really reinforced my Baltimore and KC play. I went from 1 unit to 2 units on each. So worked for me this time.

[Flying Dutchman]

Careful - Word is that Fezzik is a great contest player but not so good capper overall.

Fezzik is an advantage player. BUT, He has a modeler who is damn good for his football contests...

...and no, we haven't found out who he is...yet.

[falconticket]

Hey Dutchman I'm not clear on your terms advantage and Modeler. Can you clarify? Not a sharp here, just ur average player.

[linewiz]

http://hiltoncontestproxy.com/picks/category/picks/

http://hiltoncontestproxy.com/picks/2010/09/11/2010-hilton-contest-week-1-consensus-picks/

http://hiltoncontestproxy.com/picks/

just something i found

Thanks. I have been looking for that. It's a nice resource to have.

[mister bee]

Fezzik is an advantage player. BUT, He has a modeler who is damn good for his football contests...

...and no, we haven't found out who he is...yet.

What does "advantage" player mean?

[falconticket]

Not sure. I was wondering.

[vyomguy]

Hey Dutchman I'm not clear on your terms advantage and Modeler. Can you clarify? Not a sharp here, just ur average player.

Advantage player is someone who finds an edge in a line...its called +EV (positive expected value). As far as how he calculates his EV...he uses his own statistical models to arrive at this.

A modeller is someone who analyses the previous statical data and creates models to predict the future results. Most models wont cross 55%. But in softer markets, you can hit 60% if your model is good.

Fezik must have hired some good statistician who does modelling for him. He probably then filters out the best based on his intuition.

Having said this, NFL has probably the sharpest lines of all the sports in the world. Its the toughest to beat using math. But the sharps find other ways to beat the book.

[THE HITMAN]

I give it a look and get some ideas, but don't play it as concrete

[mister bee]

Advantage player is someone who finds an edge in a line...its called +EV (positive expected value). As far as how he calculates his EV...he uses his own statistical models to arrive at this.

A modeller is someone who analyses the previous statical data and creates models to predict the future results. Most models wont cross 55%. But in softer markets, you can hit 60% if your model is good.

Fezik must have hired some good statistician who does modelling for him. He probably then filters out the best based on his intuition.

Having said this, NFL has probably the sharpest lines of all the sports in the world. Its the toughest to beat using math. But the sharps find other ways to beat the book.

Thanks. Great reply.

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

Advantage player is someone who finds an edge in a line...its called +EV (positive expected value). As far as how he calculates his EV...he uses his own statistical models to arrive at this. A modeller is someone who analyses the previous statical data and creates models to predict the future results. Most models wont cross 55%. But in softer markets, you can hit 60% if your model is good. Fezik must have hired some good statistician who does modelling for him. He probably then filters out the best based on his intuition. Having said this, NFL has probably the sharpest lines of all the sports in the world. Its the toughest to beat using math. But the sharps find other ways to beat the book.

VERY WELL SPOKEN

[falconticket]

Thanks. Makes sense. I'm not much on the ESPN model accuscore as it seems way off at times. But I will be peeking at the contest just to get some ideas. For instance 100 teams played Baltimore last week which I already was into so I doubled. If the top plays are contradictory to my plays I might just lay off. We will see. I was horrible last year. Need a good season. Willing to try anything this year. Good outcome last week.

[vyomguy]

If the top plays were making money, hilton wouldn't be releasing it in the first place . Be careful.

[CarloTwoGuns]

ye accuscore sucks

[tbird509]

if you were horrible last year,just do the same thing,and when your ready to place your bets,just take the opposite of your orginal play lol

[linewiz]

Hey Vyomguy. Just want to echo the others in saying thanks for the explanation on advantage players, and what is meant, in this context, by "advantage". You explained it perfectly. As far as the NFL having the sharpest lines in the world, therein lies my dilemna. When I put in the necessary time and grunt work, I am able to stay in the black in basketball and baseball. But I am not able to do it in football unless I am tailing more skilled cappers. However, I find football the most fun to follow and bet.

[Flying Dutchman]

...what vyomguy said is pretty much my meaning.

I have seen modelers hit %s as high as Fezzik over the last two seasons, but I've never seen an advantage player do this.

Again, this guy is seriously, outrageously good.

[falconticket]

if you were horrible last year,just do the same thing,and when your ready to place your bets,just take the opposite of your orginal play lol

I tried that once and lost too. Everyone has some bad runs. Just part of the game.

[Robber]

good idea. ill try this

[illcrushem]

Their picks should be up sometime today? Just curious to see what they look like

[weebler]

Does anyone know how the consensus picks have done historically?

[ripit4me]

looks like good information!
1. does anyone know how to take advantage of this information? just maybe use the number one consensus pick and/or widest margin pick and hammer that bet?
2. does anyone subscribe to this service? how soon do you get the picks?
3. how soon does the list come out so that we don't need the service, or maybe if it's too late, the lines may be out of our favor.

most of these are probably sharps and i heard from someone who frequented the Hilton when they posted the picks that year made a lot of money.

[ripit4me]

nevermind, probably not too useful, picks come out saturday and may not be able to take advantage of early lines.

[Robber]

forgot about this

how did they do?

[julio_cat]

Personally I put in a list the plays of

Fezzik
Cody Lubisky
Ronin
Sportsmemo Tim
Tcovers

and play a unit each with the result of the addition - substraction proccess.

The concensus is not good IMO, because the majority of players will have a losing record at the end of the season.