Ahhh, what a wonderful, exciting time this is! Week one, a new season (perhaps the last for a while??) and a blank slate - other than 2 units profit from Thursday night's 'under' at New Orleans. I tend to start the season slow, and am a bit worried as I actually haven't completed my usual pre-season research etc in time, so stakes are low on the following bets. Constructive feedback is more than welcome.
5 units on Miami -3 @ Buffalo
Miami were second best in third down conversions last year, Buffalo 32nd (otherwise known as 'worst'). It worries me a little that Buffalo have a new LB's coach fresh from spending the last five years inside Miami's defense, and that the Bills posted a remarkable defensive passer rating last season, despite facing elite QBs six times.
But I think a Dolphins squad that suffered through an horrendous downturn in turnover differential last season, had to deal with transitioning from supersafe ChadPennington to Chad Henne mid-season, and get to visit Buffalo during decent weather, can get the win
here over Buffalo as the Bills try to bed in with a completely overhauled coaching staff. The Dolphins lost here last year thanks largely to four interceptions - including one from Ricky Williams - and if they avoid a repeat this should be reasonably comfy.
Mystic Limey forsees: Miami 24 - 13 Buffalo
3 units Houston ML over Indianapolis at 2.05
These teams performed with remarkabe similiarity on both sides of the ball last season, but of course the Colts won five more games. And there's the rub. We've all seen Houston throw away winning chances against Indy more than once, and can't help suspecting that once again the Colts will prevail thanks to that little extra touch of quality and know-how.
However, in a home opener and with just a hint of offensive line difficulty for the visitors, I'll give the Texans a chance.
Mystic Limey forsees: Houston 31 - 27 Indianapolis
5 units Jacksonville -3 over Denver
I made good money being on Denver's side early last season, but I'm going the other way here. East coast trips weren't kind to the Broncos last year (0-3), and Sunday's 93 degree heat and 11am kickoff (on Denver body-clocks) will not be forgiving. While Jacksonville quietly racked up the league's fifth best yards per carry and fourth best third down conversion rate last season, there are some statistical worries in supporting them (pass defense, mainly). Even so, I think is a decent situational spot, so Limey backs Jax.
Mystic Limey forsees: Denver 16 - 27 Jacksonville
3 units Atlanta -1.5 @ Pittsburgh
This one feels risky, yet I reckon most of that is simply due to the Steelers 'aura'. Fact is, Atlanta were good on the road last season and defended the run pretty well, so they seem well-placed to dare their opponents here to beat them through the air with a hugely inexperienced QB. That's the situation and it isn't any different just because the opponents wear black and gold. The Steelers didn't play much like the Steelers last season, and early games could be tough going with no 'Big Ben' plus a rookie center. So, I'm gritting my teeth and backing a Falcons team that I opposed frequently with success last year and still suspect of being a bit over-rated.
Mystic Limey forsees: Atlanta 22 - 13 Pittsburgh
3 units Tennessee -6 over Oakland
Tennessee's terrible start to last season owed much to playing a strong set of opponents (almost sixty wins between them by season's end) and a sprinkling of bad luck. They suffered a huge downturn in their turnover differential. I also expect Oakland to improve this season due to certain statistical measures. However, I don't like the Raiders' chances travelling here while finding their feet on offense with a new co-ordinator, new QB, new center. I think it's same old, same old for now, and they take a pounding.
Mystic Limey forsees: Oakland 13 - 28 Tennessee
3 units Philadelphia ML (2.25) over Green Bay
These two outfits performed with remarkable similarity across a range of stats last season, both coming second in their divisions too, of course. With that in mind, I'll gamble that home advantage and the potential to rediscover Green Bay's protection woes from early last season can help the Eagles offset their own change at Quarterback, whose long-term effects remain to be seen.
Mystic Limey forsees: Green Bay 19 - 27 Philadelphia
4 units San Francisco -3 @Seattle
I have these 49ers down as over-rated on various stat indicators, and I hate going against these things. Still, when a reasonably settled club faces a team on opening day that is going through a remarkable overhaul of its coaching and roster then there should really only be one winner. Especially when that team is also transitioning to a new offensive blocking scheme and fielding a rookie left tackle.
Mystic Limey forsees: San Francisco 24 - 10 Seattle
There is likely to be at least one bet across the Sunday late and Monday night games. Also, see my 'picking every game' just-for-fun thread.
5 units on Miami -3 @ Buffalo
Miami were second best in third down conversions last year, Buffalo 32nd (otherwise known as 'worst'). It worries me a little that Buffalo have a new LB's coach fresh from spending the last five years inside Miami's defense, and that the Bills posted a remarkable defensive passer rating last season, despite facing elite QBs six times.
But I think a Dolphins squad that suffered through an horrendous downturn in turnover differential last season, had to deal with transitioning from supersafe ChadPennington to Chad Henne mid-season, and get to visit Buffalo during decent weather, can get the win
here over Buffalo as the Bills try to bed in with a completely overhauled coaching staff. The Dolphins lost here last year thanks largely to four interceptions - including one from Ricky Williams - and if they avoid a repeat this should be reasonably comfy.
Mystic Limey forsees: Miami 24 - 13 Buffalo
3 units Houston ML over Indianapolis at 2.05
These teams performed with remarkabe similiarity on both sides of the ball last season, but of course the Colts won five more games. And there's the rub. We've all seen Houston throw away winning chances against Indy more than once, and can't help suspecting that once again the Colts will prevail thanks to that little extra touch of quality and know-how.
However, in a home opener and with just a hint of offensive line difficulty for the visitors, I'll give the Texans a chance.
Mystic Limey forsees: Houston 31 - 27 Indianapolis
5 units Jacksonville -3 over Denver
I made good money being on Denver's side early last season, but I'm going the other way here. East coast trips weren't kind to the Broncos last year (0-3), and Sunday's 93 degree heat and 11am kickoff (on Denver body-clocks) will not be forgiving. While Jacksonville quietly racked up the league's fifth best yards per carry and fourth best third down conversion rate last season, there are some statistical worries in supporting them (pass defense, mainly). Even so, I think is a decent situational spot, so Limey backs Jax.
Mystic Limey forsees: Denver 16 - 27 Jacksonville
3 units Atlanta -1.5 @ Pittsburgh
This one feels risky, yet I reckon most of that is simply due to the Steelers 'aura'. Fact is, Atlanta were good on the road last season and defended the run pretty well, so they seem well-placed to dare their opponents here to beat them through the air with a hugely inexperienced QB. That's the situation and it isn't any different just because the opponents wear black and gold. The Steelers didn't play much like the Steelers last season, and early games could be tough going with no 'Big Ben' plus a rookie center. So, I'm gritting my teeth and backing a Falcons team that I opposed frequently with success last year and still suspect of being a bit over-rated.
Mystic Limey forsees: Atlanta 22 - 13 Pittsburgh
3 units Tennessee -6 over Oakland
Tennessee's terrible start to last season owed much to playing a strong set of opponents (almost sixty wins between them by season's end) and a sprinkling of bad luck. They suffered a huge downturn in their turnover differential. I also expect Oakland to improve this season due to certain statistical measures. However, I don't like the Raiders' chances travelling here while finding their feet on offense with a new co-ordinator, new QB, new center. I think it's same old, same old for now, and they take a pounding.
Mystic Limey forsees: Oakland 13 - 28 Tennessee
3 units Philadelphia ML (2.25) over Green Bay
These two outfits performed with remarkable similarity across a range of stats last season, both coming second in their divisions too, of course. With that in mind, I'll gamble that home advantage and the potential to rediscover Green Bay's protection woes from early last season can help the Eagles offset their own change at Quarterback, whose long-term effects remain to be seen.
Mystic Limey forsees: Green Bay 19 - 27 Philadelphia
4 units San Francisco -3 @Seattle
I have these 49ers down as over-rated on various stat indicators, and I hate going against these things. Still, when a reasonably settled club faces a team on opening day that is going through a remarkable overhaul of its coaching and roster then there should really only be one winner. Especially when that team is also transitioning to a new offensive blocking scheme and fielding a rookie left tackle.
Mystic Limey forsees: San Francisco 24 - 10 Seattle
There is likely to be at least one bet across the Sunday late and Monday night games. Also, see my 'picking every game' just-for-fun thread.
