Thursday, September 9th
Minnesota Vikings@ New Orleans Saints (-5) 8:30 PM EST NBC
With QB Favre returning, many will opt for Playoff revenge for the underdog Vikings. They outgained the Saints 475-257 but suffered 5 critical turnovers. That will not be easy to come by with the loss of WR Rice and continuing problems in the OL. That puts much of the work load on RB Peterson and a top rated defense. This bureau, however, will favor the Saints offense behind QB Brees which has looked like they won’t miss a beat from last season’s explosive unit. This long term, profitable situation has a solid recent run with defending Super Bowl champs 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS in opening week action.
Sunday, September 12th
Carolina Panthers@ New York Giants (-6½) 1:00 PM EST
Here’s a revenge situation for which we will opt. The Giants were slaughtered 41-9 in the final game at Giant Stadium LY. As they were eliminated from the Playoffs, their defense virtually gave up in that game. Carolina had a 247-60 overland edge but much has changed in the last 8 months. NY’s new DC Fewell inherits a much improved stop unit particularly in the back 7. In a quite opposite way, Carolina is a much different team with 5 new defensive starters. Though the Panthers finished on a 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS run at the end of last season, the offense remains a bit below LY’s attack unit. Expect QB Manning and an improved passing game to lead the Giants to an opening day revenge win in their new stadium.
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM EST
Big mid-week news is that, as planned, Bill Parcells has ceded day to day control of the operations. Let’s see how long that lasts. The Bills are again in a state of flux with new coordinators on each side of the ball. That’s a proven negative in early season NFL action. This means they will implement their 3rd offensive scheme in 3 years behind a weak OL. Miami, with new DC Nolan, will cause havoc to this unit with a variety of blitzes. Miami has upgraded their passing attack by adding WR Marshall which will operate behind a better OL than that of the Bills. Though Miami hasn’t won here their last 5 trips, they are a solid 11-4 ATS away. Most importantly, they are a far more cohesive unit than that fielded by new HC Gailey.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM EST
This is a quality Atlanta offense that returns intact behind QB Ryan and RB Turner. They will be going up against the strength of the Steelers, a unit that also returns intact and is led by highly regarded DC LeBeau. News that the Steelers will be without their first 2 quarterbacks has pushed this line to Atlanta as road favorite. That’s a clear error in the opinion of this handicapper. Both QB Dickson and Batch have the tools and mobility to cause havoc for the Falcons. The OL is improved despite the loss of LT Colon and insertion of C Pouncey. Most of all, the Steelers have a huge home field advantage and a significant emotional edge as a winning team last season who did not make the Playoffs and recorded a 6-10 ATS mark with -48 AFP. Steelers a bargain at this price.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-6½) 1:00 PM EST
Lions may actually be the better of two poor alternatives in this game between a pair of teams that could be headed in opposite directions. The Lions offense is clearly an upgrade with emerging QB Stafford throwing to solid receivers and rookie RB Best complimenting the passing game. Their DL has also been upgraded with Suh leaving their major weakness, again, to be their back 7. But the Marts/Cutler combo has yet to impress. In no small part due to inconsistencies with the OL, former Detroit HC Marinelli takes over the DC position for the Bears with plenty of knowledge of his former minions. Edge to Detroit on offense, Chicago on defense in a game that figures to be closer than expected.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (-4 ½) 1:00 PM EST
It’s been a long time since there was more preseason hype about the Bengals than the Patriots. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their passing game with what could turn out to be one of the explosive units in the league. Yet is there anyone better to slow down a potent attack than Patriots AC Belichick who will act as his own DC in 2010. Though the Pats have issues at OL and with a defense that seems to be declining each year, the offense again could lead the league with return to full health of QB Brady and WR Welker. Respect improvement of the Bengals offense, a team that is on a 9-2 ATS run as underdog, but still favor the home field of New England and the Brady/Belichick combo to get the opening day victory.
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 1:00 PM EST
The Bucs are committed to rebuilding with defense first. Yet that may not be a match-up in their favor with Cleveland upgrading its signal caller position, with QB Delhomme and an improved OL. Starting Tampa Bay QB Friedman is suffering an injured thumb and has a young group of offensive teammates which will most likely commit more turnovers than the defense can force. As a result, Cleveland will have a big edge with their secondary and more continuity with their coaching staff. The better team is the underdog, making the Browns and line to get only their 2nd opening day road win in 11 tries.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) 1:00 PM EST
These were a pair of underachieving defenses last year, as the Broncos couldn’t stop the run and Jacksonville could not stop the pass. It’s questionable whether those units will be significantly improved, leaving the Jags with an edge in the offensive match-ups. Running Back Jones-Drew should have success overland after he was rested in much of August. Broncos’ problems are well documented with significant issues along the OL and their top runners, Moreno and Buckhalter suffering lingering injuries that prevented them from meaningful playing time in August. Most troubling is the Jags’ recent success against the spread, which finds them 9-23 ATS MRT with a -81 AFP last year. They are just 3-13 ATS at home and 4-16 ATS vs. ND opponents. Like Jags to get the win, but don’t like the inflated price and their recent ATS records.
Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Houston Texans 1:00 PM EST
The Colts suffered through another win-less August, but just like recent years they appear capable of making a Super Bowl run. If they do so, it will have to be behind a banged up OL in the early going. The Texans obviously have the potential to continue their recent upsurge, which saw them post a 9-7 SU record in 2009. Last year, Houston was “close but not cigar” against the Colts, signifying the degree to which they have closed the gap. But until they get over the hump, it’s tough to fade veteran QB Manning and a quality Colts who has defeated Houston 15/16 meetings.
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-6) 1 PM EST
Oakland’s new look offense will feature a quick strike attack that figurehead Al Davis has long wanted. The question is whether QB Campbell and a questionable OL and WR unit can execute the game plan. Yet motivating factor for this selection from this bureau is the Titans’ failure out of the gate in 2009 which saw them start 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS before finishing on an 8-2 SU streak to barely miss the playoffs. Don’t think veteran HC Fischer, who has covered 6 of his last 8 openers, will let that happen again. Look for Titans’ ground game, behind RB Johnson, to control the proceedings in this opening day win.
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 PM EST
Assuming the defenses are anywhere new comparable in this match-up, give a major edge to the Green Bay offense. Philly starts QB Kolb behind a banged-up OL. The Green Bay attack unit has far more continuity behind QB Rodgers, RB Grant, and a far more experience and healthier OL than in 2009. The Packers should win an anticipated shoot-out.
San Francisco 49er’s (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks 4:15 PM EST
Seattle’s first year HC Carroll is not even an odds-on choice to get the job done in the long run. They will open the 2010 season with an OL that is a work in progress, making it challenging for QB Hasselbeck and his quality WR’s to reach their potential. Under HC Singletary, the 49er’s have far more cohesion and remains an underrated entity with his recent marks of 18-6 ATS and 12-4 ATS. The 49er’s won all four August games despite limiting playtime of key contributors. SF proves why they are the division favorite with resounding Week 1 win.
Arizona Cardinals (-4) @ St. Louis Cardinals 4:15 PM EST
We weakly side with the worst of two poor alternatives in this opening game. Arizona has a QB situation that is iffy at best and was among the biggest losers in offseason free agency. Expect them to once again try to improve a running attack that was one of the worst in the league in 2009. But even this rebuilt roster has a meaningful edge over a St. Louis team that did little to improve their bottom of the barrel defense and must begin opening week play with rookie QB Bradford, plenty of issues on the OL, and without top WR Avery. This won’t be pretty.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins 8:20 PM EST NBC
Sunday night debut for HC Shanahan and Washington may not be pretty. The distractions of Haynesworth leave concerns for a defense, as do the continuing ankle problems for a less-than-mobile QB Mcnabb. Dallas coaching continuity is far more advanced at this stage, as is the offensive potential of QB Romo and his top-flight playmakers. The Dallas defense should also clearly control the festivities against Mcnabb.
Minnesota Vikings@ New Orleans Saints (-5) 8:30 PM EST NBC
With QB Favre returning, many will opt for Playoff revenge for the underdog Vikings. They outgained the Saints 475-257 but suffered 5 critical turnovers. That will not be easy to come by with the loss of WR Rice and continuing problems in the OL. That puts much of the work load on RB Peterson and a top rated defense. This bureau, however, will favor the Saints offense behind QB Brees which has looked like they won’t miss a beat from last season’s explosive unit. This long term, profitable situation has a solid recent run with defending Super Bowl champs 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS in opening week action.
Sunday, September 12th
Carolina Panthers@ New York Giants (-6½) 1:00 PM EST
Here’s a revenge situation for which we will opt. The Giants were slaughtered 41-9 in the final game at Giant Stadium LY. As they were eliminated from the Playoffs, their defense virtually gave up in that game. Carolina had a 247-60 overland edge but much has changed in the last 8 months. NY’s new DC Fewell inherits a much improved stop unit particularly in the back 7. In a quite opposite way, Carolina is a much different team with 5 new defensive starters. Though the Panthers finished on a 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS run at the end of last season, the offense remains a bit below LY’s attack unit. Expect QB Manning and an improved passing game to lead the Giants to an opening day revenge win in their new stadium.
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM EST
Big mid-week news is that, as planned, Bill Parcells has ceded day to day control of the operations. Let’s see how long that lasts. The Bills are again in a state of flux with new coordinators on each side of the ball. That’s a proven negative in early season NFL action. This means they will implement their 3rd offensive scheme in 3 years behind a weak OL. Miami, with new DC Nolan, will cause havoc to this unit with a variety of blitzes. Miami has upgraded their passing attack by adding WR Marshall which will operate behind a better OL than that of the Bills. Though Miami hasn’t won here their last 5 trips, they are a solid 11-4 ATS away. Most importantly, they are a far more cohesive unit than that fielded by new HC Gailey.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM EST
This is a quality Atlanta offense that returns intact behind QB Ryan and RB Turner. They will be going up against the strength of the Steelers, a unit that also returns intact and is led by highly regarded DC LeBeau. News that the Steelers will be without their first 2 quarterbacks has pushed this line to Atlanta as road favorite. That’s a clear error in the opinion of this handicapper. Both QB Dickson and Batch have the tools and mobility to cause havoc for the Falcons. The OL is improved despite the loss of LT Colon and insertion of C Pouncey. Most of all, the Steelers have a huge home field advantage and a significant emotional edge as a winning team last season who did not make the Playoffs and recorded a 6-10 ATS mark with -48 AFP. Steelers a bargain at this price.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-6½) 1:00 PM EST
Lions may actually be the better of two poor alternatives in this game between a pair of teams that could be headed in opposite directions. The Lions offense is clearly an upgrade with emerging QB Stafford throwing to solid receivers and rookie RB Best complimenting the passing game. Their DL has also been upgraded with Suh leaving their major weakness, again, to be their back 7. But the Marts/Cutler combo has yet to impress. In no small part due to inconsistencies with the OL, former Detroit HC Marinelli takes over the DC position for the Bears with plenty of knowledge of his former minions. Edge to Detroit on offense, Chicago on defense in a game that figures to be closer than expected.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (-4 ½) 1:00 PM EST
It’s been a long time since there was more preseason hype about the Bengals than the Patriots. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their passing game with what could turn out to be one of the explosive units in the league. Yet is there anyone better to slow down a potent attack than Patriots AC Belichick who will act as his own DC in 2010. Though the Pats have issues at OL and with a defense that seems to be declining each year, the offense again could lead the league with return to full health of QB Brady and WR Welker. Respect improvement of the Bengals offense, a team that is on a 9-2 ATS run as underdog, but still favor the home field of New England and the Brady/Belichick combo to get the opening day victory.
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 1:00 PM EST
The Bucs are committed to rebuilding with defense first. Yet that may not be a match-up in their favor with Cleveland upgrading its signal caller position, with QB Delhomme and an improved OL. Starting Tampa Bay QB Friedman is suffering an injured thumb and has a young group of offensive teammates which will most likely commit more turnovers than the defense can force. As a result, Cleveland will have a big edge with their secondary and more continuity with their coaching staff. The better team is the underdog, making the Browns and line to get only their 2nd opening day road win in 11 tries.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) 1:00 PM EST
These were a pair of underachieving defenses last year, as the Broncos couldn’t stop the run and Jacksonville could not stop the pass. It’s questionable whether those units will be significantly improved, leaving the Jags with an edge in the offensive match-ups. Running Back Jones-Drew should have success overland after he was rested in much of August. Broncos’ problems are well documented with significant issues along the OL and their top runners, Moreno and Buckhalter suffering lingering injuries that prevented them from meaningful playing time in August. Most troubling is the Jags’ recent success against the spread, which finds them 9-23 ATS MRT with a -81 AFP last year. They are just 3-13 ATS at home and 4-16 ATS vs. ND opponents. Like Jags to get the win, but don’t like the inflated price and their recent ATS records.
Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Houston Texans 1:00 PM EST
The Colts suffered through another win-less August, but just like recent years they appear capable of making a Super Bowl run. If they do so, it will have to be behind a banged up OL in the early going. The Texans obviously have the potential to continue their recent upsurge, which saw them post a 9-7 SU record in 2009. Last year, Houston was “close but not cigar” against the Colts, signifying the degree to which they have closed the gap. But until they get over the hump, it’s tough to fade veteran QB Manning and a quality Colts who has defeated Houston 15/16 meetings.
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-6) 1 PM EST
Oakland’s new look offense will feature a quick strike attack that figurehead Al Davis has long wanted. The question is whether QB Campbell and a questionable OL and WR unit can execute the game plan. Yet motivating factor for this selection from this bureau is the Titans’ failure out of the gate in 2009 which saw them start 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS before finishing on an 8-2 SU streak to barely miss the playoffs. Don’t think veteran HC Fischer, who has covered 6 of his last 8 openers, will let that happen again. Look for Titans’ ground game, behind RB Johnson, to control the proceedings in this opening day win.
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 PM EST
Assuming the defenses are anywhere new comparable in this match-up, give a major edge to the Green Bay offense. Philly starts QB Kolb behind a banged-up OL. The Green Bay attack unit has far more continuity behind QB Rodgers, RB Grant, and a far more experience and healthier OL than in 2009. The Packers should win an anticipated shoot-out.
San Francisco 49er’s (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks 4:15 PM EST
Seattle’s first year HC Carroll is not even an odds-on choice to get the job done in the long run. They will open the 2010 season with an OL that is a work in progress, making it challenging for QB Hasselbeck and his quality WR’s to reach their potential. Under HC Singletary, the 49er’s have far more cohesion and remains an underrated entity with his recent marks of 18-6 ATS and 12-4 ATS. The 49er’s won all four August games despite limiting playtime of key contributors. SF proves why they are the division favorite with resounding Week 1 win.
Arizona Cardinals (-4) @ St. Louis Cardinals 4:15 PM EST
We weakly side with the worst of two poor alternatives in this opening game. Arizona has a QB situation that is iffy at best and was among the biggest losers in offseason free agency. Expect them to once again try to improve a running attack that was one of the worst in the league in 2009. But even this rebuilt roster has a meaningful edge over a St. Louis team that did little to improve their bottom of the barrel defense and must begin opening week play with rookie QB Bradford, plenty of issues on the OL, and without top WR Avery. This won’t be pretty.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins 8:20 PM EST NBC
Sunday night debut for HC Shanahan and Washington may not be pretty. The distractions of Haynesworth leave concerns for a defense, as do the continuing ankle problems for a less-than-mobile QB Mcnabb. Dallas coaching continuity is far more advanced at this stage, as is the offensive potential of QB Romo and his top-flight playmakers. The Dallas defense should also clearly control the festivities against Mcnabb.
