Spar's NFL Plays

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  • SparJMU
    SBR MVP
    • 02-18-10
    • 1648

    #1
    Spar's NFL Plays
    The last few years I have picked 100% of NFL games and kept records. Basically I was always around 51% or 52% which we all know is a losing season and just as strong as flipping coins. Last year I really started studying handicapping and I hit 54% for the complete season, picking every single NFL game. This year I am going to try to narrow my selections to a few each week. I do not encourage anyone to tail me as there are certainly more qualified handicappers out there, but I would like to try a thread and see what kind of results I get.

    Just as a heads up if anyone decides to follow along, early in the season my plays are small, in the 0.5 to 1 unit range as I start to feel things out. By late season and playoffs my units usually get much higher as I increase my bankroll. My big games ought to be about 5 to 7 units, with the extremely rare 10 unit play. Even at a measly 54%, last year was very successful for me as I hit the majority my big plays late in the season, but who knows what will happen this year.

    And by the way a few college plays might sneak in there, but this will be at least 80% NFL.
  • Framsr
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-08-09
    • 22

    #2
    BOL this year.
    Comment
    • bostnboy3
      SBR Rookie
      • 08-04-10
      • 27

      #3
      saints +6.5
      Comment
      • SparJMU
        SBR MVP
        • 02-18-10
        • 1648

        #4
        Thanks, I have been told the first step to getting really serious about this is to document your plays consistently for an entire season. In the past I had a friend tracking plays for a group of people, so this is my first effort out on my own.

        On that note.....

        .55 to win .50 on Mississippi St. +1
        Comment
        • SparJMU
          SBR MVP
          • 02-18-10
          • 1648

          #5
          Close one last night but no cigar. I am going back to the home dog tonight with Marshall +12.5 which is currently +102 on Matchbook. So .50 units to win .51.

          Another side note, I will mostly use -110 odds, however I shop 4 different books including matchbook and will take the + odds when I get them.

          Season Record:

          0-1
          -.55 Units
          Comment
          • jasont
            SBR MVP
            • 02-24-08
            • 1227

            #6
            gl this yr
            Comment
            • SparJMU
              SBR MVP
              • 02-18-10
              • 1648

              #7
              Season Record:

              1-1
              -.03 Units

              NFL Week 1

              Steelers ML +107 1 units to win 1.07
              Jaguars -3 -110 1.1 unit to win 1
              Chiefs +4.5 -110 1.1 unit to win 1
              Comment
              • SparJMU
                SBR MVP
                • 02-18-10
                • 1648

                #8
                Season Record:

                3-1
                2.03 Units

                Pending:

                Chiefs +4.5

                1.1 units to win 1.0
                Comment
                • SparJMU
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-18-10
                  • 1648

                  #9
                  Season Record:

                  4-1
                  3.03 Units
                  Comment
                  • SparJMU
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-18-10
                    • 1648

                    #10
                    Not a lot of time today to shop lines. All plays are 0.55 to win 0.5.

                    CLE -3
                    CHI +7.5
                    MIN U 41
                    OAK -3
                    DEN -3.5
                    NYG +5
                    Comment
                    • SparJMU
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-18-10
                      • 1648

                      #11
                      3-3 this week for -0.15. Pretty big waste of a weekend. I was out of town, with a pathetic internet source, and didn't get into my normal handicapping routine at all. Looks like next weekend will be the same thing. Good news is I am always much stronger late in the season so hopefully these little setbacks won't do too much damage.

                      Season Record:

                      7-4
                      2.88 Units
                      Comment
                      • SparJMU
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-18-10
                        • 1648

                        #12
                        49ers +5.5

                        1.1 Unit to win 1.
                        Comment
                        • SparJMU
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-10
                          • 1648

                          #13
                          Season Record:

                          8-4
                          3.88 Units

                          Last night was a perfect example of why you flat bet, or at least keep a disciplined approach to your money management. I almost made my first 5 unit play of the year on the 49ers last night. While I would have won the bet, it would have been extremely close despite San Fran dominating the game. Obviously I was on the right side, but there is no such thing as a lock.
                          Comment
                          • SparJMU
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-18-10
                            • 1648

                            #14
                            1.1 units to win 1

                            Ravens -10.5
                            Bills +14.5
                            Comment
                            • SparJMU
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-18-10
                              • 1648

                              #15
                              Season Record:

                              9-5
                              3.78 Units

                              After a pretty uneventful first few weeks, I will finally have the time this week to really analyze the games. Should be a nice week.
                              Comment
                              • SparJMU
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-18-10
                                • 1648

                                #16
                                Feeling good about this week. Good to be back with plenty of time to analyze the games. Also extremely excited to attend the Eagles game this week. The return of fat crap Mcnabb. By the way, the Eagles aren't nearly as good as everyone is calling them right now. Wait until Vick plays against a decent defense. If they were on the road at Dallas or New York this week I would be large against them. Fortunately they are at home against a pathetic Redskins team so they should move to 3-1.

                                Season Record:

                                9-5
                                3.78 Units

                                Half Unit Games

                                Ravens ML 0.5 units to win 0.6
                                Browns +3 0.55 units to win 0.5
                                49ers +7 0.55 units to win 0.5
                                Jaguars +7 0.55 units to win 0.5
                                Redskins +5 0.55 units to win 0.5

                                1 Unit games

                                Bills +5.5 1.1 units to win 1
                                Raiders +3.5 1.1 units to win 1
                                Chargers -8 1.1 units to win 1
                                Giants -3.5 1.1 units to win 1
                                Comment
                                • SparJMU
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-18-10
                                  • 1648

                                  #17
                                  Bets are going in now, I am making a few very minor adjustments to bet size.

                                  Half Unit Games

                                  Ravens ML 0.5 units to win 0.6
                                  Browns +3 0.55 units to win 0.5
                                  49ers +7 0.55 units to win 0.5



                                  1 Unit games

                                  Bills +5.5 1.1 units to win 1
                                  Raiders +3.5 1.1 units to win 1
                                  Chargers -9 1.1 units to win 1
                                  Giants -3.5 (+1.05) 1 units to win 1.05
                                  Jaguars +7 1.1 units to win 1
                                  Redskins +6 (-112) 1.12 units to win 1
                                  Comment
                                  • SparJMU
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-18-10
                                    • 1648

                                    #18
                                    Well I doubt there are many followers at this point consdiering I don't like to hype myself up and I stick to a conservative money management policy, but I told you guys I was going to have a big week, and 7-2 is pretty good. I hope people followed along and cashed in like I did.

                                    Season Record

                                    16 -7, 70%
                                    7.23 Units
                                    Comment
                                    • SparJMU
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-18-10
                                      • 1648

                                      #19
                                      Sorry for all the time off. Planning a wedding and getting married is extremely time consuming. But fun.

                                      Searching for good lines today, so not everything is -110 to win 100. See lines below.

                                      CLE +13. 1.14 to win 1.
                                      TEN -2.5. 1.09 to win 1.
                                      CIN +3.5. 1 to win 1.02.
                                      CHI -3. 1.04 to win 1.
                                      BUF +13. 1.09 to win 1.
                                      TB -3. 1.06 to win 1.
                                      DAL -3. 1.16 to win 2.
                                      Comment
                                      • SparJMU
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-18-10
                                        • 1648

                                        #20
                                        Very disappointing week at 3-4, but I guess I was due to come back down to earth. 16-7 is a little too good to be true.

                                        Season Record:

                                        19-11, 63%
                                        5.97 units
                                        Comment
                                        • SparJMU
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-18-10
                                          • 1648

                                          #21
                                          This is kind of a strange week, a lot of tight matchups and tight lines. A bunch of lines look like sucker bets (Washington +3, Pittsburgh, etc.) which is always scary. I will continue to tread lightly with 1 unit plays.

                                          Arizona -3. 1.1 to win 1.
                                          Jets -6. 1.1 to win 1.
                                          Patriots -6. 1.1 to win 1.
                                          Comment
                                          • scarface2738
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 10-12-10
                                            • 134

                                            #22
                                            Miami at +1 is the bet of the week.
                                            Comment
                                            • navyhawk
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 05-08-10
                                              • 184

                                              #23
                                              BOl on your plays spar. Really like Miami like scarface this week. Ez game imo.
                                              Comment
                                              • SparJMU
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-18-10
                                                • 1648

                                                #24
                                                Pretty pathetic week. I didn't feel great about it going in, and managed to let two obvious sucker bet situations get away with Detroit and New Orleans. I knew the right play and didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. Anyway the season has been pretty mediocre at this point, but like I said before I always gain confidence later in the season.

                                                Season Record:

                                                20-13, 61%
                                                4.77 units
                                                Comment
                                                • dimon
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-14-09
                                                  • 1159

                                                  #25
                                                  PM Sent...good picks and right about the suckers with DETROIT and NO...can't belive missed them...when it looks that easy, play opposite
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SparJMU
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-18-10
                                                    • 1648

                                                    #26
                                                    Houston ML. 1 unit to win 1.3.
                                                    Bears -3. 1.1 to win 1.
                                                    Comment
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