C-Gold's WEEK 1 CARD

[C-Gold]

Can't believe it, the season is finally here!

Saints -4.5 ( 1 unit)
Patriots -4.5 ( 1 unit)
Colts -2 ( 2.5 units)
Packers -3 ( 2.5 units)
Baltimore + 2 ( 1 unit)
Baltimore +9/Green BAY @ Philly O40.5 ( 1 unit) TEASE

[C-Gold]

Saints
- Last year the Vikings dominated the Saints except for a few bad plays, and still lost the game. If both teams play "their game" then the Saints win and it isn't a field goal game. It has to burn Vikings fans up that they deserved to win, yet they still lost.
- The Saints offense will score their points, but what about the Vikings? He who should not be named has a banged up ankle, hasn't been in camp, and now Rice is injured.
- In general I don't like Favre not practicing and being in camp. It puts one man above the team who gets to live by a different set of rules, and plus he's not getting in sync with his teammates. A lot of offense is about timing, and yes he might be able to do it, but teams practice for a reason... Not taking advantage of that and having a bum ankle isn't good.

Arguments against?
- Dog on a nationally televised game
- Favre on a Thursday night nationally televised game
- The Vikings DID outplay the Saints in the last meeting

If anything Favre is a question mark for me, while Brees is not. The Vikings outplaying the Saints last time matters, but in essence the Saints have more they can "correct". I don't think their problems weren't correctable. You could sit down, look at the tape and make corrections.

I don't really see this being a FG kind of game, and think the line will move to -6 or -6.5 by the time kickoff rolls around and the gamblers put their bets in. If you want the Saints take it now.

[C-Gold]

Patriots
Bungles are overrated, Patriots are underrated. I don't know what else to say, I say this line also goes up to 6 when your retail gambler figures out who they want to bet on. There is no bigger mismatch than Head Coach. Marvin Lewis is a dud and Bellicheat is the best. The Patriots will win at home, and they will cover over the Bengals.

[C-Gold]

Colts
This team is going to win the Super Bowl this year.

They won a few years back, nearly had an undefeated season, are good every year, can win at home, win on the road etc. I took the Texans at home late in the year as a sucker bet over Indy and won. This is no sucker bet, the Colts will win and cover. The Colts nearly went undefeated last year, and nearly won the SB. If Manning didn't throw that late pick maybe THEY would have been defending champs and the line would be higher.

I don't like that the Texans lost Shannihan, and think everybody has been picking this team to "break out" for years. The Colts win, it might be close but Peyton Manning will beat this home dog. In general betting against home dogs is unprofitable, but if you pick your spots it can be good. The Colts will win and cover.

[C-Gold]

Packers -3
This was the play that jumped out at me. You get a young Kolb that everybody loves vs Aaron the man Freaking Rodgers. I believe the Packers are going to challenge the Colts in the super bowl, and they are already starting to get some hype. The offense and their quarterback are like a machine.

This game won't be easy, but the line moved from 0 to 3. I am kicking myself. The books moved the line because everybody is betting the packers, and they want to protect themselves. I know in general everybody on one side is bad, but the "public play" doesn't always lose...

I am kicking myself for not TEASING GB to +7 with something when they were at 0, but I had to refund my account ( and the -3 should cover or push anyway).

I also like the over in this game with GBs secondary hurt.

[C-Gold]

Baltimore +2

Baltimore is a rock solid team, but they aren't sexy. They play hard nosed football, good defense, good special teams, and punch you in the mouth. Flacco isn't going to wow you like Aaron Rodgers but the Ravens are a good TEAM.

The Jets are overrated right now. They nearly missed the playoffs, but then got hot, went on a late season run, and then had a TV show about them and everybody wants some of the Jets. Classic overvalued team. Some people think they are going to the SB this year, some realize they might not even make the playoffs. Mark dirty sanchez isn't there yet dude. He's a liability and not an asset.

This should be a close, hard fought game, and even though the Ravens are on the road, they are clearly the better team. Baltimore has the look of about a 12-4 team, while the Jets could potentially fall back to 7-9. Take the better team and the points here.

[C-Gold]

If you'll look at my card what do you see?

Good teams.

Some might be at home ( Saints, Pats), some are the better team that is a small road favorites ( Indy, Pack), some is the better team that is a small road dog ( Balt), but you bet on the "good teams" in the NFL when you get a good price. In general I'd rather bet on a good team at a fair price, than a crappy team at a fair price... The Peyton mannings, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady's of the world surprise you to the upside, where as the Jason Campbell's, Jemarcus Russell's, Matthew Staffords of the world surprise you to the downside. You just never know what is going through the mind of a crappy quarterback or crappy head coach. Yeah. the crappy team might be getting 10 points and the line is "fair", but bad players lose you money... Good players... you watch the highlights and say I wish I shoulda woulda coulda cashed in betting on THAT guy! At the same time you don't want to overpay but I don't think I am in the cases here.

THAT'S ENOUGH TALKING TO MYSELF. I'd be more than happy to talk anything through or talk about some stuff I missed.

[JosephPavs]

I follow the AFC south close and really doubt colts win..

[C-Gold]

I follow the AFC south close and really doubt colts win..

- The Colts nearly went undefeated last year, nearly won the SB and that wasn't the first time. They are a legit super power.
- The Colts defense will be better than people think. I know it's painful to watch 4 yard run over and over and over down the field, but they will be better than people think.
- I don't like that Houston lost their really really good offensive coordinator
- Schaub is overrated. He's a good player, but he's not as good as his stats which were REALLY REALLY good. Mike Shannihan, Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shannihan are some awesome coaches with good schemes that are QB friendly. I mean look at the success under them. They got Brian Griese to the pro bowl??? He's a decent player, but he's not a pro bowler. Shanny had a young Jay Cutler throw for 4,000+ yards and look like the next Elway... Schaub is DECENT, but he's putting up top 5 stats and he's probably not even one of the top 10 best QB's in the league. The schemes/plays/philosophy of those coaches is VERY QB friendly... I'm a big Kubiak fan and understand Houston's talent... I took them last year vs Indy when everybody bet Indy and I cashed in.

It should be a good game and all but P. Manning will come out victorious. Why do you think the Texans win?

[aman86]

You're right on. Packers saints pats and colts are great picks. I don't care that they're favorites the points are so few and these teams I expect to dominate anyway

[Addicted2Action]

i think you are crazy laying the points with the pats, lets not forget cincy is a very quality team and in case you havnt noticed the pats D is in serious decline...yes pats offense looks to back on track but cincy is not gonna get lit up and i believe there offense can control this game with the run game and Palmer will have all day to make plays when he so chooses.....+4.5 is a gift imo...

[Addicted2Action]

Packers is scary as they are no doubt the squarest play on the board (not saying i would take philly, actually like the over if anything)...regardless how you feel about Kolb Ried trusted him enough to trade Mcnabb to a div rival and i think he has proven to be a good judge of talent, while kolb im sure is going to experience growing pains this year i doubt they come against a depleted GB secondary..this game has shootout written all over it and i just feel better with that over as opposed to GB and there banged up secondary as road favs (and i am very high on the Packers this year).....

[C-Gold]

A2A

Are the Patriots going to lose at home to the Bungles? No. So then it's a question of how much are they going to win by. In my opinion Cincinatti wasn't as good as their record last year. They benefited from an off year in their division, schedule, and some close wins. When the playoffs came around they got pimp smacked by the Jets and showed that they didn't even belong in the playoffs. I actually picked Cincy to make the playoffs last year too. The Patriots should win their division and host a home playoff game next season, while the Bengals will spend all year fighting for a wild card spot. Marin Lewis is a 6-10 year away from the pink slip.

The Patriots still have the best coach in the league, Brady will do better this year, and they have homefield in this game and won't lose. So do they win by a FG, or do they win by say a touchdown? The line is at 4.5 now but will go to 6 by kickoff.

[Addicted2Action]

i hope it goes to 6 but i doubt it as that is where it opened and has not done anything but went down, hopefully you right, im hoping the squares jump all over the pats and drive it back up...will pats lose? i say very possible as there defense has serious issues, they cannot create a pass rush and have problems in coverage..either way i see this being close and ill take my chances with the Bungles as you will find out last year was no fluke as Palmer will be better this year another season removed from his injury (as will brady). like the under 45 in this game maybe more than a side.......

[C-Gold]

Packers is scary as they are no doubt the squarest play on the board (not saying i would take philly, actually like the over if anything)....

The Packers isn't a "square" play, it is a "heavy" play but remember the line was a pick em' and moved all the way to -3... It moved for a reason, the books don't want everybody betting on the Pack, and had to move the line to start enticing people to bet on the other side.

In general yes, you don't want to bet on the same game as everybody else, but the team with the money on it doesn't ALWAYS lose. Sometimes the public wins, most of the time they lose, but this time the Packers win. Forget about who the money is on, have you seen Aaron Rodgers? Kolb has a crap load of pressure on him in this home opener, and the guy is still unproven.

It's no L by any stretch, but the Packers have a much better than 50% chance of winning this game and if you keep taking games like that over and over again you end up with a positive bank account.

[Addicted2Action]

i agree i love rodgers, i ended up with late picks in most my Fantasy drafts so ended up taking him in almost all of them, like i said i just worry about there depleted secondary, this is a game i could see kolb performing very well in, not like he has never started in philly before, he looked quite good against the saints when he stepped in last year...like i said i wouldnt bet philly but feel like this is a over just sitting on a platter (and i hate overs)......either way good talk, i love this time of year i miss talking football, there only so much you can say about a baseball game......

[Addicted2Action]

on the bright side, i love Bal as well, wish i would have bet it early when it was 3 but either way i think they win this game outright......

[C-Gold]

I'm not as high on Kolb as some people... I don't know much about him.

but he's been getting a lot of praise for 3 games. 1 game where he was blown out by the Saints and picked up a lot of garbage yards ( yes they were lets be honest, the game was over in the 2nd quarter)... He ran up some stats vs a horrible Chiefs team, and he was what, 1-2 as a starter with decent stats in a blowout loss and vs a crappy team? Not as impressing when you put it like that huh? AJ Feeley racked up some stats in a few games as a backup.... Nobody cares so much about him.

If Kolb plays as well as Jeff Garcia did as an Eagle they will be pretty happy. The Packers have dealt with injuries before... Al Harris was out at the end of last year and GB still finished with a very good statistical defense.

Sometimes people get so focused on a team "losing" a guy, but when you look at what the Pack still has it's a lot... They should have a top 5 offense this year and had a top 5 defense last year. I do think they benefited from an easy schedule but you don't pick who you play.

[Addicted2Action]

really like your bal/GB ov tease,........

[C-Gold]

really like your bal/GB ov tease,........

Thanks I like teasing with stuff that makes sense...

Like I really wish I teased GB at a pickem to +7... I would have done it sooner but I was taking money out putting money in.

but in general you want to tease certain numbers so it will benefit you. Like teasing the Pats -4.5 is stupid because you lose points when you cross 0... but if you tease a 3 point team and get them to 10, or tease an 8 team down to 1 etc.

Baltimore is the better team and SHOULD win outright. If anything Baltimore is probably a little underrated where as the Jets are overrated... So you want to give me Baltimore and 9 points in a teaser? That pushes it up to more than a 50% chance of winning...

The Packers/Eagles game should fly well over 41... In all honestly, if both teams come to this fight swinging you could get that in 1 half... Aaron Rodgers has been in some shoot outs like the Cards playoff game last year, or the Minnesota match up last year...

[Addicted2Action]

yea bro i understand the teaser theory ...like i said i love the gb/philly ov at 47 at 40 it is almost a no lose i would say, and teasing balty through the 3 and the 7 is always the way to go......

[DennisGreen]

Nice write-ups C Gold. GL to you this season

[C-Gold]

yea bro i understand the teaser theory ...like i said i love the gb/philly ov at 47 at 40 it is almost a no lose i would say, and teasing balty through the 3 and the 7 is always the way to go......

Hell yeah, the only way I see the GB game not going over 40 is like a 30-10 GB win if Kolb doesn't show up ( unlikely IMO), or maybe you get teams getting into the Red zone but not scoring tds... Maybe like a 23- 16 game ? Both teams seem decent enough in the red zone and that shouldn't happen.

You should take that teaser bro... Baltimore getting more than a TD in a game they are going to win anyway? Come on bro... Follow me to freedom!

[JosephPavs]

- The Colts nearly went undefeated last year, nearly won the SB and that wasn't the first time. They are a legit super power. - The Colts defense will be better than people think. I know it's painful to watch 4 yard run over and over and over down the field, but they will be better than people think. - I don't like that Houston lost their really really good offensive coordinator - Schaub is overrated. He's a good player, but he's not as good as his stats which were REALLY REALLY good. Mike Shannihan, Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shannihan are some awesome coaches with good schemes that are QB friendly. I mean look at the success under them. They got Brian Griese to the pro bowl??? He's a decent player, but he's not a pro bowler. Shanny had a young Jay Cutler throw for 4,000+ yards and look like the next Elway... Schaub is DECENT, but he's putting up top 5 stats and he's probably not even one of the top 10 best QB's in the league. The schemes/plays/philosophy of those coaches is VERY QB friendly... I'm a big Kubiak fan and understand Houston's talent... I took them last year vs Indy when everybody bet Indy and I cashed in. It should be a good game and all but P. Manning will come out victorious. Why do you think the Texans win?

Houston's Offensive Cordinator is actuall probably going to be Mostly Kubiak for the first couple games...

The O Line has a New coach that they really enjoy playing for

Schaub's Stats are only good because they were pass heavy due to the inability to run the ball for more than a 3 yard avg

They had a huge fumbling problem that should be cured with foster

Not really worried about Cushing being out for the first 4 games

They lost both games to the Colts last year on in the 4th Qtr 1 was a pick the other was a missed field goal to go to overtime....

I am not too worried about the Texans Defense since they will all be as healthy as they can be being the 1st game of the year....

If they are going to do anything they know that they have to win this game week 1 and the players have an attitude that I have not seen before and are really pushing to have a great home field presence.

Sorry to rant but these are just a few of the points that I see....


Where did the Colts get better over the off season as I like to say you better be driving the bus or get run over....

[Totolover1409]

Love the Baltimore pick. Totally agree with the Jets being a bit over rated. Amazing D but JaMarcus Russell had a better passer rating than Mark Sanchez last year.

[C-Gold]

ADD:
Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl +800 ( 5 units)

Peyton Manning's young receiving core gets another year older, he might have the best pass catchers he's ever had with Wayne, Clark, Collie, Garcon and Gonzelz... certainly the deepest core he's ever had. He has a two headed monster in the backfield, and the offensive line can't be worse than a few years ago when they won the title.

Keep this in mind, Peyton Manning is the best QB in the league, maybe the best ever and he only has 1 title... I don't expect him to retire with only 1 title and this is maybe the best Colts team he's had.

The defense looks legit. The front 7 is more stout than usual, they should have less of the usual Chinese drip torture of gashing 5 yard runs up the entire field and they added a new D-Lineman. Their secondary isn't bad, with Bethea back there, the corners and a healthy for now Bob Sanders.

The team is a year removed from Tony Fungis, the ultra conservative coach that clearly wasn't a playoff coach/big game strategist.

The Colts were undefeated for much of the year last year, and it wouldn't shock me if they had a similar year this year. Can I call for a 14-2 win loss record? Peyton Manning lost the Super Bowl last year but I expect him to work harder than ever in the off season and come back a winner next year. Remember him picking apart the Jets and Ravens nasty defenses at the end of last year so systematically? People said it was unfair how good he was. Then the Saints and Greg Williams had a super game plan that changed each quarter and the Saints pushed out a win.

This year I see the Colts beating the Packers or maybe the Giants for Peyton's second title. They lost last year, but you can bet that he worked harder than ever to win the big one again.

Enjoy, the season is finally here.

[C-Gold]

I will be looking at halftime plays tonight. Hopefully we get a sloppy low scoring 1st half so I can take the 2nd half over. I'm glad I bought the line at -4.5, I see it at -5.5(-120) meaning it will probably hit -6 it isn't already there. 6 is not a super key number like 3 and 7, but 1, 4, 6 and 10 are pretty important numbers too. I'm happy I got the number before it shifted.

GL and enjoy the kickoff!

[C-Gold]

ADD
New York Giants to win the Super Bowl 1 unit, 25-1 Odds.

I pick the Colts to win it all, but the Giants at 25-1 is just too good to pass up. The Giants filled in their holes on defense ( MLB, S) added another play maker at DE, the young WR's mature, and they added depth on the O-Line.

The Giants made the playoffs every single year with Eli Manning as a starter except last year, won 1 super bowl, and were the #1 seed once. That's pretty impressive, and I do believe the Giants make it again this year... The Colts is who I think will win, the Giants at 25-1 is fantastic value.

[C-Gold]

ADD
Saints/Vikings 2nd half OVER 23.5 ( 1 unit)

[C-Gold]

Saints
- Last year the Vikings dominated the Saints except for a few bad plays, and still lost the game. If both teams play "their game" then the Saints win and it isn't a field goal game. It has to burn Vikings fans up that they deserved to win, yet they still lost.
- The Saints offense will score their points, but what about the Vikings? He who should not be named has a banged up ankle, hasn't been in camp, and now Rice is injured.
- In general I don't like Favre not practicing and being in camp. It puts one man above the team who gets to live by a different set of rules, and plus he's not getting in sync with his teammates. A lot of offense is about timing, and yes he might be able to do it, but teams practice for a reason... Not taking advantage of that and having a bum ankle isn't good.

Arguments against?
- Dog on a nationally televised game
- Favre on a Thursday night nationally televised game
- The Vikings DID outplay the Saints in the last meeting

If anything Favre is a question mark for me, while Brees is not. The Vikings outplaying the Saints last time matters, but in essence the Saints have more they can "correct". I don't think their problems weren't correctable. You could sit down, look at the tape and make corrections.

I don't really see this being a FG kind of game, and think the line will move to -6 or -6.5 by the time kickoff rolls around and the gamblers put their bets in. If you want the Saints take it now.

I think my write up was legit. You DID want to take the game at -4.5... not 6, and Brees and the offense shoulda woulda coulda had 20 points if it wasn't for 2 missed FG's, but the Vikings played sloppy and Favre and the Sidney Rice-less Vikings offense didn't hold their end of the bargain.

I did end up adding the 2nd half under and losing, because now way in hell I would have predicted a 14-9 game....

[C-Gold]

1-1 on Thursday night... That's ok, help me cycle through that Bonus money...

ADD Titans Money Line -270
1.5 Units to win a little over .5 units.

[C-Gold]

ADD: Cleveland Browns +3 ( 1 unit)
Every fan is so low on Delhomme. He's a long time starter, has been to the SB, and had a bad year last year. He's still better than Freeman who had a worse year than Delhomme last year... Mangini is NOT a good head coach, but he's still better than Raheem Morris. Neither team is very good, but take the better coached, better quarterbacked team on the road here WITH 3 points.


Week 1
Saints -4.5 ( 1 unit)
Saints/Vikings 2nd half Over ( 1 unit)
Browns +3, ( 1 unit)
Patriots -4.5 ( 1 unit)
Colts -2 ( 2.5 units)
Packers -3 ( 2.5 units)
Baltimore + 2 ( 1 unit)
Baltimore +9/Green BAY @ Philly O40.5 ( 1 unit) TEASE
Titans Money Line -270, 1.5 units

GL and I will be looking for 2nd half totals and plays! I'm a big fan of taking 2nd half overs in what should be high scoring games.

[C-Gold]

The bets look so good so far except for the Colts.

Houston's offense has been contained, and the Colts have shot themselves in the foot with 3 drive killing dropped balls ( Thanks Garcon, why don't you go back to your 3rd world country and try and rebuild it), and a failure to convert at the 2 yard line. Once again, thanks Garcon. Buy some hands.

I'm scared of the Colts winning by 1 ...

[C-Gold]

ADD: New York Giants 2nd Half -3.5, 1 Unit

Good Luck!

[JosephPavs]

Not trying to rub it in just want to know why you went against what I said you asked for my opinion had no rebutal and still went with your heart.......



JP