RLM

[accountingbyday]

For those of you new to RLM and would like to learn, there is an article and an old site with some notes/comments on filtering the RLM bets that I found educational a couple of years ago.

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/news/reverse-line-movements-can-lead-big-profits-a-9202/

http://www.nflindex.com/rlm.html

I was surprised to see the author of the 1st article is LT Profits Sports Group and was posted on SBR Forum all the way back in 2008. Could that be the same LT Profits we have in our forum? The picture with the article may indicate otherwise, but I could be wrong.

Apologies if this info is already somewhere in 1000+ posts this forum contains.

Thanks for the info!!!

I was fairly successful last year just pcking games,but I'm trying to be more sophisticated/intelligent this year. This is exactly the kind of educational material I'm looking for!

[jolmscheid]

No I never said that, I said start paying attention when the amount of bets hits 10,000, which is often during the the week, then follow the RLM ASAP unless you like the other side for other reasons. I would NOT wait until game day if at all possible because then all the value can be sucked out of the line.

(and as a sidebar, I am on Army +7.5. I posted +5.5 in my CFB thread because I only post lines available at time of post)

Thanks for the clarification LT....so 10,000 bets is when you really start to pay attention...do you think 5,000 bets has some merit? Thanks for your professional insight...

[LT Profits]

Thanks for the clarification LT....so 10,000 bets is when you really start to pay attention...do you think 5,000 bets has some merit? Thanks for your professional insight...

5000 is ok for daily sports but not for NFL or college football

[Capybara]

Congrats to fellow Temple backers, that was a nice hit! Wonder if we'll get Army too.

[LT Profits]

Congrats to fellow Temple backers, that was a nice hit! Wonder if we'll get Army too.

and Louisiana Tech and Utah. You may want to add those.

[doublej95]

What about UNLV?

[brucelee66]

I haven't read through the entire thread but correct me if i'm wrong, line movement is affected by $$$$ not volume of bets - correct??? So just because there's 15,000 bets averaging 50$ if there's only 10,000 bets but they average $150 the line would move toward the 10,000 bets anyway?

[LT Profits]

What about UNLV?

Yes although I hate big double-digit spreads.

[BeBrave]

Be a Rebel and put some money on them!

[bobbyk1133]

I haven't read through the entire thread but correct me if i'm wrong, line movement is affected by $$$$ not volume of bets - correct??? So just because there's 15,000 bets averaging 50$ if there's only 10,000 bets but they average $150 the line would move toward the 10,000 bets anyway?

Don't bother offering logic to this thread. They enjoy living in their bubble.

[LT Profits]

I haven't read through the entire thread but correct me if i'm wrong, line movement is affected by $$$$ not volume of bets - correct??? So just because there's 15,000 bets averaging 50$ if there's only 10,000 bets but they average $150 the line would move toward the 10,000 bets anyway?

That is exactly the point. The lesser percentage moving the line implies sharper money.

[bobbyk1133]

That is exactly the point. The lesser percentage moving the line implies sharper money.

Do you not realize that public betting has become largely irrelevant with line moves? Sharps control the entire board. This is a world market now. Welcome to 2011.

[Totolover1409]

LT, if you'd like, we can together do a NCAA/NFL RLM on this thread.

[brucelee66]

I've always heard the "sharps" usually bet the early lines and cause the early movement and the later line movements is general public betting.

[LT Profits]

LT, if you'd like, we can together do a NCAA/NFL RLM on this thread.

Na, just do your thing, I don't need any additional chores. I mean I'll post them once in a while but I don't want to track and post regularly.

[matelionis]

Do you not realize that public betting has become largely irrelevant with line moves? Sharps control the entire board. This is a world market now. Welcome to 2011.

I don't understand all the hating of the RLM theory. What is the problem? If you don't think it is worth your time then leave the thread. If you have some useful information then please post it. By useful, I mean that you have tracked RLM over the past 5 years and it was a losing proposition, or something actually f ucking helpful.

[bobbyk1133]

I don't understand all the hating of the RLM theory. What is the problem? If you don't think it is worth your time then leave the thread. If you have some useful information then please post it. By useful, I mean that you have tracked RLM over the past 5 years and it was a losing proposition, or something actually f ucking helpful.

If providing updated/accurate information is hating then that's news to me.

A) public betting is almost irrelevant with line moves now
B) not all RLM represents true sharp positions
C) contrarian betting doesn't work anymore- widely confirmed
D) where is the data supporting RLM plays over the last 5 years and what is the sample size?
E) the marginal difference in winning % between consensus "sharp" plays and "square" plays isn't as big as you think. Even worse, an accurate RLM represents just a fraction of that difference.

Find me one sharp who will disagree with any of this.

This is a forum after all isn't it? Opinions, debate, etc?

There is so much talk about the analysis of games on this forum, but hardly any about the market - interpreting line movement, sharp action, etc etc.

This thread is no different than any other "system" that's been used over the years. Times change and people adapt, but it doesn't stop some people from clinging to outdated theories and ultimately--betting blind.

Look at the "totals" market right now. Up until last year sharps made a killing with "under" strategies. In 2010 that jumped the shark and the books/sharps adjusted. Going into this year most of the sharps stuck with "unders" to start the year and got slaughtered again. 4 of the week 1 lines were 41 or higher. Week 2 there is 11 lines of 41 or higher. Are sharps positioning themselves early in the week with a middle, are they going with the "overs" at the best line? Or are they waiting until the lines go up to bet the unders and take advantage of an overadjustment?

If you think the market is the same as it was years ago then you just aren't paying attention. There are probably 100 better ways to "follow sharp $$"...but if you want to bet on RLM go right ahead.
Just don't say you weren't warned.

[matelionis]

If providing updated/accurate information is hating then that's news to me. A) public betting is almost irrelevant with line moves now B) not all RLM represents true sharp positions C) contrarian betting doesn't work anymore- widely confirmed D) where is the data supporting RLM plays over the last 5 years and what is the sample size? E) the marginal difference in winning % between consensus "sharp" plays and "square" plays isn't as big as you think. Even worse, an accurate RLM represents just a fraction of that difference. Find me one sharp who will disagree with any of this. This is a forum after all isn't it? Opinions, debate, etc? There is so much talk about the analysis of games on this forum, but hardly any about the market - interpreting line movement, sharp action, etc etc. This thread is no different than any other "system" that's been used over the years. Times change and people adapt, but it doesn't stop some people from clinging to outdated theories and ultimately--betting blind. Look at the "totals" market right now. Up until last year sharps made a killing with "under" strategies. In 2010 that jumped the shark and the books/sharps adjusted. Going into this year most of the sharps stuck with "unders" to start the year and got slaughtered again. 4 of the week 1 lines were 41 or higher. Week 2 there is 11 lines of 41 or higher. Are sharps positioning themselves early in the week with a middle, are they going with the "overs" at the best line? Or are they waiting until the lines go up to bet the unders and take advantage of an overadjustment? If you think the market is the same as it was years ago then you just aren't paying attention. There are probably 100 better ways to "follow sharp $$"...but if you want to bet on RLM go right ahead. Just don't say you weren't warned.

I am not saying you can't have an opinion or have a debate. The problem is have is you saying: a) public betting is almost irrelevant with line moves - if that it true, why? b) not all RLM represents true sharp money - what does it represent? c) contrarian betting does not work anymore - why not? confirmed by who?

I am totally open to discussing whether or not RLM is valid. I just want evidence it doesn't work other than, "oh it's all b.s., and systems". This thread seems to me to be trying to prove RLM has merit by tracking wins and losses and finding parameters for optimization. If you know something they don't, let 'em know.

[bobbyk1133]

I am not saying you can't have an opinion or have a debate. The problem is have is you saying: a) public betting is almost irrelevant with line moves - if that it true, why? b) not all RLM represents true sharp money - what does it represent? c) contrarian betting does not work anymore - why not? confirmed by who? I am totally open to discussing whether or not RLM is valid. I just want evidence it doesn't work other than, "oh it's all b.s., and systems". This thread seems to me to be trying to prove RLM has merit by tracking wins and losses and finding parameters for optimization. If you know something they don't, let 'em know.

If it's stats you're looking for I don't have them, but I can bet you that there are no statistically significant stats that support RLM over the last 5 years either. I'm simply passing on information that is widely circulated among the sharps. If you do some research you'll come across the same information. Some of these things aren't hidden secrets kept in the smoky dark basements of Vegas.

I respect LT and his opinions, but we just agree to disagree on this.

[matelionis]

As ususal per this forum, just like 90% of all the posts on here, bobbyk you give no evidence of why RLM is not going to work. I am not looking for specific statistics, just information that you either do not know or do not want to share. I asked you why public betting is almost irrelevant to line movement. I don't need stats, I need an answer. What IS relevant to line movement? I also do not need stats as to why "contrarian betting does not work over time", just give me a reason. Please explain "today's" market and how it differs from years past and what we SHOULD be looking for if anything.

Bottom line is this, don't just post random things about RLM and how it doesn't work. Post information supporting your reasons why and also feel free to tell us what information IS important and that we SHOULD be aware of in the marketplace.

[8ArIvd5]

just noticed sbrodds has 71% on dal, yet 5dimes moved off the 3 to 2.5. anyone playing sf based on this move?

[bobbyk1133]

I asked you why public betting is almost irrelevant to line movement. I don't need stats, I need an answer. What IS relevant to line movement? I also do not need stats as to why "contrarian betting does not work over time", just give me a reason. Please explain "today's" market and how it differs from years past and what we SHOULD be looking for if anything. Bottom line is this, don't just post random things about RLM and how it doesn't work. Post information supporting your reasons why and also feel free to tell us what information IS important and that we SHOULD be aware of in the marketplace.

Sharps control the entire market, not the books, not the public. This is pretty much common knowledge at this point and renders RLM useless. It's pretty simple. What evidence do you need? I can't pull your head out of the sand for you. If you are paying attention to what the sharps are saying/writing over the last couple years you'll already know everything I'm saying. But if you are relying solely on this forum to form your opinions then that's on you.

[Educ8d Degener8]

If providing updated/accurate information is hating then that's news to me.

A) public betting is almost irrelevant with line moves now
B) not all RLM represents true sharp positions
C) contrarian betting doesn't work anymore- widely confirmed
D) where is the data supporting RLM plays over the last 5 years and what is the sample size?
E) the marginal difference in winning % between consensus "sharp" plays and "square" plays isn't as big as you think. Even worse, an accurate RLM represents just a fraction of that difference.

Find me one sharp who will disagree with any of this...

I think bobby meant, "If providing personal opinions"...

[bobbyk1133]

As ususal per this forum, just like 90% of all the posts on here, bobbyk you give no evidence of why RLM is not going to work.

I'll also give you 100 points if RLM hits 55% this year. We'll talk again in 15 weeks.

[Capybara]

RLM is fukking slaying today! I nailed Temple and Army plus hit the ML on Army and narrowly missed it with Temple. And now we got Utah out front early. Could be a windfall day!

[stickbit]

exactly Capy...itd always solid. look for a line move of 1-1.5 pts or more and betting percentage 65% or higher the other way. ez $. most people dont have the discipline or balls to bet these games though as most are on ugly teams that bettors dont want to put their money on.

[stickbit]

oh and i had arky st. and louisville also on my RLM list and both covered easily with Louisville winning outright. how the f&*k can you argue it? please.

[matelionis]

I'll also give you 100 points if RLM hits 55% this year. We'll talk again in 15 weeks.

Bobby are we talking NFL or NCAA?

[matelionis]

You guys are also forgetting Louisiana Tech (W), and Idaho (W). AZ, Utah, and UNLV left for today. So far 5-0 today. Last week NCAA was 3-4-0.

[stickbit]

wonder what billy walters made today? betcha he cleaned up!

[bobbyk1133]

Bobby are we talking NFL or NCAA?

NFL

[Tanko]

wonder what billy walters made today? betcha he cleaned up!

Me thinks Billy Walters made many dollars today. But I'm just a lowly RLM playa'. Maybe bobbyk1133 knows. He seems to know more about this system than most. Heck, maybe bobby is really billy just trying to turn us off on playing on his back.?.?

Peace brothers. Just having fun.

[accountingbyday]

If providing updated/accurate information is hating then that's news to me.

A) public betting is almost irrelevant with line moves now
B) not all RLM represents true sharp positions
C) contrarian betting doesn't work anymore- widely confirmed
D) where is the data supporting RLM plays over the last 5 years and what is the sample size?
E) the marginal difference in winning % between consensus "sharp" plays and "square" plays isn't as big as you think. Even worse, an accurate RLM represents just a fraction of that difference.

Find me one sharp who will disagree with any of this.

This is a forum after all isn't it? Opinions, debate, etc?

There is so much talk about the analysis of games on this forum, but hardly any about the market - interpreting line movement, sharp action, etc etc.

This thread is no different than any other "system" that's been used over the years. Times change and people adapt, but it doesn't stop some people from clinging to outdated theories and ultimately--betting blind.

Look at the "totals" market right now. Up until last year sharps made a killing with "under" strategies. In 2010 that jumped the shark and the books/sharps adjusted. Going into this year most of the sharps stuck with "unders" to start the year and got slaughtered again. 4 of the week 1 lines were 41 or higher. Week 2 there is 11 lines of 41 or higher. Are sharps positioning themselves early in the week with a middle, are they going with the "overs" at the best line? Or are they waiting until the lines go up to bet the unders and take advantage of an overadjustment?

If you think the market is the same as it was years ago then you just aren't paying attention. There are probably 100 better ways to "follow sharp $$"...but if you want to bet on RLM go right ahead.
Just don't say you weren't warned.

Bobby,

Honest question - not flaming.

You said there were 100 better ways to follow the sharp money. I realize that's an exaggeration (the 100 number), but obviously you believe there are better ways. Can you tell me one or two of what you believe to be the best ways to follow the sharps? I'd love to learn.

[QuantumLeap]

Sharps control the entire market, not the books, not the public. This is pretty much common knowledge at this point and renders RLM useless. It's pretty simple. What evidence do you need? I can't pull your head out of the sand for you. If you are paying attention to what the sharps are saying/writing over the last couple years you'll already know everything I'm saying. But if you are relying solely on this forum to form your opinions then that's on you.

I agree bobbyk. In fact, I think this is the biggest problem with using RLM and I've been trying it for 3 or 4 years. The amount of money going on one team is not widely published and for good reason.

The number of bets we see at the public consensus sites show the number of bets, not the money. This represents a lot of squares but not all square money moves lines. The lines move based upon money, not based upon how many squares bet on one side.

[BeBrave]

RLM has its positives no its not perfect