BGboothA's ML experiment

[BGboothA]

It seems like everyweek in the NFL there are games that are nearly 50/50 a spread of 3.5 can lead to a ML around +180. These games create in my mind a chance to make some money playing the ML dogs. If you can pick these dogs around 50% you would turn a profit.

I got to think about this last year while a local radio station ran a year long contest called "pick the underdog" or something like that. Where everyweek you would send in a text picking one of the underdogs for the week to win. I played that contest hitting 9 of the 16 weeks I played. (the winner of the contest picked a remarkable 13 of 16).

So am I crazy and this is a stupid idea....maybe....but we are going to find out. Some weeks there might be a few plays, some weeks there may be a whole bunch. I really don't know.

Right now my week 1 leans (I will post specific plays closer to game time)

MIN @ NO (MIN +194)
CLE @ TB (CLE +125)
CIN @ NE (CIN +192)
DEN @ JAX (DEN +123)
DET @ CHI (DET +222)

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

BOL with this, makes a lot of sense and can turn very profitable.

[icancount2one]

Cincy Detroit and Minny all look like reasonable picks. I think Cincy is the best pick.

[BGboothA]

Also thinking at Buffalo @ home against the dolphins. Buf +167

[BGboothA]

After looking closer at the game on Thursday, I am NOT including MIN @ NO in my ML experiment.

[BGboothA]

Alright so we need 2 of these 4 to hit in order to stay positive in this little experiment. All plays are risking 1 unit.

CLE @ TB (CLE +136)
CIN @ NE (CIN +211)
DEN @ JAX (DEN +144)
DET @ CHI (DET +235)

[BGboothA]

Not the start that I had hoped for in this mix. 0-4....still think Detroit was robbed, and Den and CLE both had chances to win, but it still 0-4.