Mighty Ducks NFL Picks!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Still think Steelers might be the right play, Palmer needs a big game tonight if they want to win this. Can see them having some trouble getting those 1st downs if the passing game isn't there. Take the steelers now at +money?

Sorry, I wasn't on the computer to answer your question. But yes the Steelers -5 were the right play 100% not just because it cashed but the way the public was hammering down the line from 6 all the way down to 5. Hope you played it and won some money.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Hey D3 I love your plays always and am looking everywhere here and then read this post: "For any of you that have been following my threads, I have been on a roll and do not blindly make picks unless I have a good read on them. I love prime time games and have been having a great read on them, I was on the giants over the cowgirls and peyton and indy last week and was dead on with the packers last night. This is a VERY tough game to call this spread and if your taking pitt or cincy you are straight guessing. The play here is the over 41 for a couple reasons. The public is on the under HEAVY expecting the typical steeler d and cincy's improved unit. However, cedrick benson and, specifically, the bengals have been successful against this pitt defense before. I think they move the chains and chad ochiocinco and TO love the big lights and big games, they will both come to play as well. In addition, I think pitt will lean on big ben to open up the stingy cincy d by throwing it to their big recievers and TE. Mike wallace is always a candidate for a big play as well. Finally, I love these types of games because I expect the defenses to make things happen and give both teams GREAT field position and put them in position for FG and points. THE ONLY PLAY ON THIS GAME IS OVER 41 - ENJOY ANOTHER CORRECT PICK!" In Babylons thread. What do you think of this stuff?

Whoever you got that quote from was dead on and i'm glad he cashed. He definitely knew what he was talking about and I give him props for that. The Under 41 was in check without those turnovers at the begining of the game and near the end. Hope you played the Over and won yourself some cash.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Play #68: Steelers/Bengals Under 20.5 +100 1H ($200 to win $200) LOSS

Play #69: Steelers/Bengals Under 41 -105 ($210 to win $200) LOSS

Updated Record: 40-29-0 (+4532)

[FlaxMartin]

Glad I got on steelers -5. We had a bit of bad luck buddy, those turnovers are very hard to anticipate. Especially when 21 of the total points came from turnovers. On to thursday!

[CHAZ]

So disappointed in myself this week, absolutely pathetic plays Turnovers pretty much fuked both my Under plays and the Over was the RIGHT play on this game. All day I was watching the line movement in the Steelers and when that line got down to -5 and the late money came in before kick-off, that should of been my play on this game. Just a poor ass performance by me in picking the right plays this week, I should of done better.

On to week 10 boys, you can't win every week.

Its all good Ducks. Betting is a marathon not a sprint and so far this season you are way ahead of the pack.

Keep up the great work!

[The J-Dizzle]

I got the Steelers-5 at almost +money, it was the right play from the start, the bookies just messed with our heads there for a while (and it worked)..

My two leans: steelers over 23.5, over 9.5 punts.

Looking forward to your plays next week D3!!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Glad I got on steelers -5. We had a bit of bad luck buddy, those turnovers are very hard to anticipate. Especially when 21 of the total points came from turnovers. On to thursday!

I got the Steelers-5 at almost +money, it was the right play from the start, the bookies just messed with our heads there for a while (and it worked).. My two leans: steelers over 23.5, over 9.5 punts. Looking forward to your plays next week D3!!

I'm glad both of yous guys cashed something on last nights game, good job guys!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Its all good Ducks. Betting is a marathon not a sprint and so far this season you are way ahead of the pack. Keep up the great work!

Of course its a marathon i'm just angry at my self for some piss poor picks that lost me money. Thanks for the positive feed back man, much appreciated

On to week 10 cannot wait!

[PSD999]

Betting is a marathon not a sprint

nice money are only numbers good luck D3

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I like 2 plays for tomorrow nights game. Looking into both of them right now and might play 1 today pending line movement.

Ravens ML and Under 43.5 are my leans.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Play #70:

Lions/Bills Over 43 +100 ($300 to win $300)

[hitman2010]

Hey, this OVER Li/Bi is very possible result. Why you just play $3. I see the strong play you usually put $4, and very strong you play $7, the perfect play you put $10. So you consider that play is a normal play?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Hey, this OVER Li/Bi is very possible result. Why you just play $3. I see the strong play you usually put $4, and very strong you play $7, the perfect play you put $10. So you consider that play is a normal play?

I'm not quite sure I understand exactly what you mean but my wager amounts are based on how strong I feel about a play. I don't have an exact wager amount for set plays like you said regular, strong, very strong, and perfect. I increase my wager amount depending on my total winnings thus far this season so I can afford to increase my wager amounts to $300-$500 mainly. As my total winnings increase as the season progresses then my average $300 bet will increase aswell and so on and so forth. My big play last week on the Pats was just a bet I liked a lot and decided to wager more then usual on it. All my bets I place I intend to win obviously, but I feel better about some more then others I guess and thats when I increase my wager amount. Hope this helped.

[ChileCheese]

Hey D3,
I think I noticed you on ATL earlier this week.. some other thread I believe...
Anyhow, how come the switch over to BAL now?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Hey D3,
I think I noticed you on ATL earlier this week.. some other thread I believe...
Anyhow, how come the switch over to BAL now?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/513150-nfl-picks-atlanta-falcons-slight-favorites-over-baltimore-ravens

I could come up with my own write-up based on this game but it would be fairly similar to that link above I provided. Great info in that article everything you need to know is in there.

[ChileCheese]

Cool, thanks for the link.. Personally, Im using the Ravens for a 10 point teaser. But im sure either side of this game is right for that.
In fact, lots of match ups are prime for 6-10 point teasers this weekend.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good luck with teasing the Ravens. Personally think they could win tomorrows game straight up but I won't pick a side. I can't bet against the Falcons not just because there my team because I know to succeed in this business you MUST bet with your head and not your heart. But the Falcons thus far in the season and since drafting Matty Ice that they shouldn't be bet against. Matt Ryan's 17-1 home record is something thats really pushing me away from taking a side in this game and might just play the Under the total.

[FlaxMartin]

Taiiling as always bud

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Play #70:

Lions/Bills Over 43 +100 ($300 to win $300)

Thats my only play I have locked in already. If I have a play on tomorrows game it will be played tomorrow because i'm leaning Under 43.5 and I was that number to go up.

[ChileCheese]

Concerning the possibility of you betting under... how does a Thursday Night Game affect that? My memory is fuzzy on mid week games. But I would wager a guess that teams playing on only 3 days rest will be tired and Defenses will suffer.

[hitman2010]

I got you D3. Thank for your respond.

[LBDT168]

are you gonna be playing your Falcons tomorrow, D3?

[DblDeuce]

I like your Sunday play. Thank you.

[DblDeuce]

Looking forward to tomorrow nights under too.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Concerning the possibility of you betting under... how does a Thursday Night Game affect that? My memory is fuzzy on mid week games. But I would wager a guess that teams playing on only 3 days rest will be tired and Defenses will suffer.

Yes, both teams will be coming in to tomorrows game on 3 days rest but more like a 2 day rest for the Ravens since they lose a day to travel to Atlanta. I guess you could take this into consideration when picking either a side on the total but I wouldn't grade this as important as some people might. Good insight though whats your lean on the total? I'm guessing Over?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I got you D3. Thank for your respond.

No problem bud, hope it helped

are you gonna be playing your Falcons tomorrow, D3?

Originally was leaning Falcons because they've proven not to bet against them at home. After looking more into it I think the Ravens match-up well offensively against the Falcons D and if the Falcons aren't able to stop the Rice from rushing and those dump off passes from Flacco the ATL D could be in some serious problems in terms of getting of the field on 3rd down. Staying away from picking a side on this game just going to cheer for the Falcons

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Play #71:

Ravens/Falcons Under 43.5 +100 ($200 to win $200)

I wanted to hold off this play until tomorrow but I like the price that I'm getting it at right now so i'll just lock it in tonight.

[NFL-Addicted]

Good luck D3. I think the Over/Under players on field don't care about it. I lean on Atlanta now, I am gonna play a small bet to watch the game.

[ChileCheese]

Id be leaning towards the total going over. Partly due to the short rest, but more to do with the Falcons ability to pass the ball, and the Ravens ability to score on teams who cant stop the pass. I do not think this will be a game with a lot of running, and most likely will resemble last weeks game with TB. The Bucs could not run the ball, just as people assume Baltimore wont either, but still put up points against a very weak secondary. Anyhow, if Im wrong, and both teams rush 20-25x, I think the under is safe. But if they both go to the air, Id suspect a 27-23 final for one side.. .Just dont know which side that is. If its a rushing game, I think 20-17 is more appropriate.

[big0mar]

Id be leaning towards the total going over. Partly due to the short rest, but more to do with the Falcons ability to pass the ball, and the Ravens ability to score on teams who cant stop the pass. I do not think this will be a game with a lot of running, and most likely will resemble last weeks game with TB. The Bucs could not run the ball, just as people assume Baltimore wont either, but still put up points against a very weak secondary. Anyhow, if Im wrong, and both teams rush 20-25x, I think the under is safe. But if they both go to the air, Id suspect a 27-23 final for one side.. .Just dont know which side that is. If its a rushing game, I think 20-17 is more appropriate.

Has Atlanta been able to win when they haven't successfully run the ball? Have they faced a defense as physical as Baltimore's?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good luck D3. I think the Over/Under players on field don't care about it. I lean on Atlanta now, I am gonna play a small bet to watch the game.

Good luck with the play. Go Falcons!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Has Atlanta been able to win when they haven't successfully run the ball? Have they faced a defense as physical as Baltimore's?

Atlanta is 6-0 when able to rush the ball for more then 100 yards and are 0-2 when not able too. Steelers and Eagles were both able to hold the Falcons under 100 rushing and that is something that should be taken into consideration.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Chilecheese, I'm basing my Under bet on these teams will have a run first mentality. More running means more time off the clock. For the Ravens to win this game they have to air it out to Boldin and use those dump off passes to Rice like they used last week against the Dolphins. Atlanta will be looking to run the ball because they know there more successful when they do so. 6-0 when rushing for more then 100 yards in a game but the Ravens should be able to maintain Turner, or maybe not we'll find out tonight. The last game between these 2 was in 2006 and both these teams are almost completely re-built on offense since the last game.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Play #72:

Ravens/Falcons Under 21.5 +102 ($200 to win $204)

[ChileCheese]

Chilecheese, I'm basing my Under bet on these teams will have a run first mentality. More running means more time off the clock. For the Ravens to win this game they have to air it out to Boldin and use those dump off passes to Rice like they used last week against the Dolphins. Atlanta will be looking to run the ball because they know there more successful when they do so. 6-0 when rushing for more then 100 yards in a game but the Ravens should be able to maintain Turner, or maybe not we'll find out tonight. The last game between these 2 was in 2006 and both these teams are almost completely re-built on offense since the last game.

I completely agree. Its just a gut feeling, you will have BAL more capable of stopping the run, thus forcing the pass. And Flacco will do what Freeman did last week.
But anyhow, I dont have any money on the totals, so I hope its a 3-0 game and you win it all, and Im wrong as Fukk.