This is my first post -- so play nice. 
Using data over the last 5 years, I've found trends for betting the OU on certain games that seem to come out pretty well. I'm really just using thresholds, so it's not even all that complicated.
And broken down by bet...
Overall, over the last 5 years we show:
Now, here is where I wonder if I am doing some statistical nit-picking.
Betting suggested overs for the last 5 years in weeks 1 and 2 have a 4-11 record. So I was thinking of just not betting them. Of course, I would like to logically support this. It is easy to say that offenses aren't clicking early in the season and, thus, you can't bet the suggested overs with the expectation that offense will be putting points on the board like they will during other weeks.
On another note -- not trying to mix leagues, this post is mostly centered around NFL -- I've done similar analysis on college football games and actually come up with an overall of 70%. I'm not too sold on it as it is only 87 plays (4 pushes) over 5 years. And the nit-picking gets a little... crazy. Like "only ever bet a suggested over on a non-conference game after a bye week" (11-1 from 2005-2009)... all other "over" scenarios were either losers or too close for comfort.
And on yet a last note -- I have a pretty extensive database at my hands with odds data (unfortunately) only going back to 2005. I would be willing to run the numbers to test any specific trends if someone thinks they might have something. I was recently asked to check how often the Gamecocks cover under Spurrier because someone heard that he pays attention to the line for the sake of the football boosters. He's 31/55 over the last 5 years... so just bet on Steve Spurrier and you'll beat the juice! ;-)
I look forward to some thoughts and honest criticism.
Cheers:
Miles
Using data over the last 5 years, I've found trends for betting the OU on certain games that seem to come out pretty well. I'm really just using thresholds, so it's not even all that complicated.
Code:
SEASON WIN LOSS PUSH PCT 2005 43 34 0 55.8 2006 33 22 4 60 2007 38 23 2 62.3 2008 30 24 2 55.6 2009 34 16 1 68
Overall, over the last 5 years we show:
Code:
Overs 75-56-4 57.25% Unders 103-63-5 62.05% Totals 178-119-9 59.93%
Betting suggested overs for the last 5 years in weeks 1 and 2 have a 4-11 record. So I was thinking of just not betting them. Of course, I would like to logically support this. It is easy to say that offenses aren't clicking early in the season and, thus, you can't bet the suggested overs with the expectation that offense will be putting points on the board like they will during other weeks.
On another note -- not trying to mix leagues, this post is mostly centered around NFL -- I've done similar analysis on college football games and actually come up with an overall of 70%. I'm not too sold on it as it is only 87 plays (4 pushes) over 5 years. And the nit-picking gets a little... crazy. Like "only ever bet a suggested over on a non-conference game after a bye week" (11-1 from 2005-2009)... all other "over" scenarios were either losers or too close for comfort.
And on yet a last note -- I have a pretty extensive database at my hands with odds data (unfortunately) only going back to 2005. I would be willing to run the numbers to test any specific trends if someone thinks they might have something. I was recently asked to check how often the Gamecocks cover under Spurrier because someone heard that he pays attention to the line for the sake of the football boosters. He's 31/55 over the last 5 years... so just bet on Steve Spurrier and you'll beat the juice! ;-)
I look forward to some thoughts and honest criticism.
Cheers:
Miles
