NFL Systems (via StatFox) went 36-13 (73%) last season

[ackem19]

Got these from Statfox from the last week of last season. They all seem pretty profitable. Enjoy and BOL!

Play On - Road teams - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.3% +19.2 units Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (20-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.6
The average score in these games was: Team 26, Opponent 20.5 (Average point differential = +5.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (58.8% of all games.)

The situation's record last season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-14).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (60-38).

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games.
(84-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +55.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.5
The average score in these games was: Team 21.5, Opponent 21.5 (Total points scored = 43)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 60 (50.8% of all games.)

The situation's record last season was: (22-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-16).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (126-86).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (244-222).

Play On - Road teams - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents.
(80-40 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.6%, +32 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (57-62 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.7, Opponent 20.6 (Average point differential = +0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (33.3% of all games.)

The situation's record last season was: (9-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (40-19).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (185-145).

[Wrecktangle]

mark this thread

[LuckyBeans]

Thread Marked.

[ackem19]

How do you mark a thread?

[saints7011]

How do you mark a thread?

like this...

[kroyrunner89]

These really aren't systems, these are trends. I don't buy into these and really doubt they'll be useful going forward

[ClimbSomeRocks]

These really aren't systems, these are trends. I don't buy into these and really doubt they'll be useful going forward

Agreed they are last years trends. Is that not one of the things we look at when we handicap?

[kroyrunner89]

Agreed they are last years trends. Is that not one of the things we look at when we handicap?

There's absolutely nothing you can learn from these kinds of trends though. There isn't even any kind of logic backing these. Here's the thing, if you play with numbers enough you can make them say ANYTHING you want. Do you think people went into last year saying "Hey I think I should play an under every time there's two average scoring teams and the total is between 42.5 and 49"? Of course not. Trends like these are only things you can come up with looking back at a season and manipulating data, and are useless going forward unfortunately.

There are a lot of cappers out there who would love to believe that trends like these actually offer an edge, but sportsbooks wouldn't exist if they did. Trends offer an easy way out for cappers, but unfortunately in this business no such way exists. In the end it comes down to the two teams taking the field on Sunday and how they match up with each other, and if you want to find an edge you're going to have to do the work to find it

[Bogart45]

Nice post Kroy. For instance the 1st one is 38-14 last 10 seasons, but that mean between 1983 and 1999 it was 22-24.

[Wrecktangle]

Data sets are like prisoners of war: if you torture them long enough, they will admit to anything.

[DaProfessor23]

nicely put wrecktangle and kroyrunner .

[ClimbSomeRocks]

It is true that these are just trends and that you can make statistics say anything that you want; however, I would not completely discount this theory. For example one autobet for last year was to fade any team who played the steelers. Would you say that this was simply coincidence or is there more?

I say do not discount this trend until the facts of this season discount it

[JosephPavs]

Maybe if you were talking about season opener QB pass percentage with 3 sets of receivers and avg X yards with an average of X points vs a team that has stayed the same and has averaged X yards when on the road... Those are the trends that help me...

[70kgman]

How does that first one even make any sense in reality? You are playing on a team who's defense sucks at forcing turnovers against a team that hardly ever turns the ball over.

[gtboy]

There's absolutely nothing you can learn from these kinds of trends though. There isn't even any kind of logic backing these. Here's the thing, if you play with numbers enough you can make them say ANYTHING you want. Do you think people went into last year saying "Hey I think I should play an under every time there's two average scoring teams and the total is between 42.5 and 49"? Of course not. Trends like these are only things you can come up with looking back at a season and manipulating data, and are useless going forward unfortunately.

There are a lot of cappers out there who would love to believe that trends like these actually offer an edge, but sportsbooks wouldn't exist if they did. Trends offer an easy way out for cappers, but unfortunately in this business no such way exists. In the end it comes down to the two teams taking the field on Sunday and how they match up with each other, and if you want to find an edge you're going to have to do the work to find it

thank you =========

[HauntingTheHoly]

Got these from Statfox from the last week of last season. They all seem pretty profitable. Enjoy and BOL!

Play On - Road teams - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.3% +19.2 units Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (20-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.6
The average score in these games was: Team 26, Opponent 20.5 (Average point differential = +5.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (58.8% of all games.)

The situation's record last season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-14).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (60-38).

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games.
(84-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +55.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.5
The average score in these games was: Team 21.5, Opponent 21.5 (Total points scored = 43)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 60 (50.8% of all games.)

The situation's record last season was: (22-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-16).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (126-86).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (244-222).

Play On - Road teams - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents.
(80-40 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.6%, +32 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (57-62 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.8
The average score in these games was: Team 20.7, Opponent 20.6 (Average point differential = +0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (33.3% of all games.)

The situation's record last season was: (9-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (40-19).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (185-145).

Play On - Opponents of Tampa Bay Bucs - in every single game, for the entire season, regardless of odds. Money Line only.

Thought I'd make a contribution.