BetterBizness' CFL Thoughts Week 10+

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  • BetterBizness
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 05-20-06
    • 5737

    #281
    Tension...The NJ loss cost me about 20 units Profit as I had the over, and Jersey at -170 with the Edmonton Under... alas...
    Comment
    • tension
      SBR High Roller
      • 08-11-10
      • 192

      #282
      I didn't lose a lot on the devils as my max bets got limited at ~$50 I had under 5.5 goals and NJ -1.5
      Comment
      • BetterBizness
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-20-06
        • 5737

        #283
        Come over to my NHL thread at some point ...

        What were you crushing your bookie with? AFL?
        Comment
        • hitman2010
          SBR MVP
          • 09-03-10
          • 1465

          #284
          keep it up BB.
          Comment
          • tension
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-11-10
            • 192

            #285
            Not really sure what triggered my account to bet limited with my bookie, I play wayyy too many markets to narrow it down to what caused it.
            Comment
            • azplaya
              SBR Sharp
              • 09-12-10
              • 378

              #286
              You got anything for today bb?
              Comment
              • BetterBizness
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-20-06
                • 5737

                #287
                Yup... I try and cap nearly every game... but I wait until usually a couple of hours before for the final opinion... should be up right away for the Toronto Sask Game...
                Comment
                • clbonham2
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 05-27-10
                  • 125

                  #288
                  Whats the word of the day?
                  Comment
                  • BetterBizness
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 05-20-06
                    • 5737

                    #289
                    I think it's "Toronto" ... But I have to see if it's a sucker line at 11 or not...
                    Comment
                    • BetterBizness
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 05-20-06
                      • 5737

                      #290
                      Toronto @ Saskatchewan -11 @ O/U 49

                      Toronto Seasonal Results (Most recent first)
                      Sask 27 @ Tor 16 U49
                      Edm 24 @ Tor 6 U49
                      Win 13 @ Tor 17 U49
                      Tor 16 @ BC 37 O49
                      Tor 13 @ Ham 28 U49
                      Ham 16 @ Tor 12 U49
                      Mon 22 @ Tor 37 - O49
                      Tor 29 @ Edm 28 - O49
                      Tor 10 @ Mon 41 - O49
                      BC 20 @ Tor 24 - U49
                      Cal 24 @ Tor 27 - O49
                      Tor 36 @ Win 34 - O49
                      Tor 16 @ Cal 30 - U49

                      Seasonal Sask Results (most recent first)
                      Sask 27 @ Tor 16 U49
                      Sask 32 @ Ham 25 O49
                      Cal 37 @ Sask 43 O49
                      Sask 2 @ Win 31 - U49
                      Win 23 @ Sask 27 - O49
                      Sask 14 @ Edm 17 - U49
                      BC 13 @ Sask 37 - O49
                      Sask 26 @ Mon 30 - O49
                      Ham 24 @ Sask 38 - O49
                      Sask 20 @ Cal 40 - O49
                      Edm 20 @ Sask 24 - U49
                      Sask 38 @ BC 18 - O49
                      Mon 51 @ Sask 54 - O49

                      Preview to Come...
                      Comment
                      • BetterBizness
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-20-06
                        • 5737

                        #291
                        One thing I've noticed... is before the last game that hit 43, in which 30 were scored at the half, and just 3 in the 4th quarter... the last FIVE Toronto Saskatchewan games (since 08, twice a year they play) were over 49... Most of them way over... With BAD Toronto teams...
                        Add... Sask has played FIVE of SIX overs at home this year... while Toronto has played 4 of 6 overs on the road at 49...

                        Add Lemon is back at QB and a little more motivated to play well with QB Bell waiting to take his spot... Nothing says "lets play well", then knowing your job is on the line as a professional... Add Toronto Defensive Line is a bit banged up without DT Huntley, and already without DT Bell for a few weeks... Adds maybe a couple of extra nanoseconds of time and space for Sask QB Huntley and RB Cates in the big picture...

                        Add Toronto would like to stay in check with Hamilton after the Cats beat the Esks, but literally without pressure... they are 3 games up on Winnipeg... 3 games up on Edmonton who won't be crossing over anytime soon... Tor Coach Barker can literally open up the playbook in this game... and I think he will now that his people are getting healthy.. RB Boyd, WR Copeland, WR Owens.. QB Lemon... Finally ALL of them are back for the first time in weeks... Sask QB Durant is a little banged up with an ankle injury where he was kicked in practice... But really, when is that going to stop one of the star QB's in the league...

                        Add... Perfect spot for a letdown game... You know when the media is hyping "Saskatchewan needs to not look through Toronto" ...

                        I'm going to be daring here and sprinkle a little on the +410 ML as well as go after the Over 49... If you don't feel so daring, I think the fact that the past 5 games they've played (again vs BAD toronto teams) ... Riders have NOT covered 11 once (although 2 pushes) ...

                        Thus:

                        Going to LOAD up on the over in this game... we have some momentum the past week, and particularly after last night (The Obvious Under with a Minute left in the half, that turned into a Hope for 9 min at the end)... We're shooting for a moon.. I hope I'm not nuts... Don't lose your shirt... It just looks like a strong play, lets hope it turns out to be one...

                        7 Units OVER 49...
                        3 Units Tor +11
                        1 Unit Tor ML +410
                        0.5 Units Tor ML + Over 49
                        Comment
                        • latinrus
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-01-10
                          • 11188

                          #292
                          With u on this my friend! BOL
                          Comment
                          • BetterBizness
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 05-20-06
                            • 5737

                            #293
                            49 is one of the lowest numbers you can get in the CFL Rus... Lets hope they shame it...
                            Comment
                            • azplaya
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 09-12-10
                              • 378

                              #294
                              Bb - any thoughts on tor tt of 19 or sask tt of 33?
                              Comment
                              • BetterBizness
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 05-20-06
                                • 5737

                                #295
                                I would lean to Toronto TT over 19 vs the 33... Toronto has 2 ways to cover that... In the first 3 quarters where their gameplan has already scored 21+.. or in the last Quarter where they have 10-13 and are getting blowout, but are forcing the backdoor cover... Hopefully it's the first one...
                                Comment
                                • azplaya
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 09-12-10
                                  • 378

                                  #296
                                  Cool...and I was wrong sask tt is 30..put 1.5x on tor tt over 19 as well as 5x on game over...let's do this thing!
                                  Comment
                                  • BetterBizness
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 05-20-06
                                    • 5737

                                    #297
                                    Ok we're in it together... I put my money where all my bets lie (and then some)... So we win, we win together, when we lose.. its your own fault for betting what a stupid internet guy says...

                                    But in all seriousness, that's why I try and write up all the games with all the season score, so that despite any bias' I may have (Edmonton rings a bell), a person can get a perspective, and essentially analyze the cap...
                                    Comment
                                    • BetterBizness
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 05-20-06
                                      • 5737

                                      #298
                                      I don't like the Sask 30... just could hover around there...
                                      Comment
                                      • BetterBizness
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 05-20-06
                                        • 5737

                                        #299
                                        I'm readlly debating adding another unit to Tor ML... YEs I realize Sask is unbeaten at home...
                                        Comment
                                        • Masu485
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-14-08
                                          • 7700

                                          #300
                                          , too bad. i'm on the Under for the game.
                                          Comment
                                          • BetterBizness
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 05-20-06
                                            • 5737

                                            #301
                                            Add

                                            1 Unit Tor ML +410
                                            Comment
                                            • BetterBizness
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 05-20-06
                                              • 5737

                                              #302
                                              Add (wow how much am I putting in this)

                                              2 Units 1Q Over 10...
                                              Comment
                                              • tension
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 08-11-10
                                                • 192

                                                #303
                                                Wow, I knew this game started at 8am my local time and I was still in bed turned around to look at the clock and it was 7:58. Damn I was so fast out of bed onto my PC to place my bets hahaha.
                                                Comment
                                                • BetterBizness
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 05-20-06
                                                  • 5737

                                                  #304
                                                  CASHHHHH

                                                  2 Units Q1 OVERRRR!!!!!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BetterBizness
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 05-20-06
                                                    • 5737

                                                    #305
                                                    Sask Offense is Crushing us...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BetterBizness
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-20-06
                                                      • 5737

                                                      #306
                                                      Gebus Toronto... YOu can't go to Boyd Every Fn time!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • tension
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 08-11-10
                                                        • 192

                                                        #307
                                                        I opened up a Bet365 account as they let me bet and withdraw with AUD I think its based in Europe. They don't have markets for quarter betting though which is a shame

                                                        Well my aussie bookie didnt have quarter betting either so I guess i'm not missing out.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BetterBizness
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 05-20-06
                                                          • 5737

                                                          #308
                                                          15-14 at half.. ABove pace... need 10 a Q now...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • hitman2010
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-03-10
                                                            • 1465

                                                            #309
                                                            what plays on thread 290?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BetterBizness
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 05-20-06
                                                              • 5737

                                                              #310
                                                              Thread 290 is a preview post...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • tension
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 08-11-10
                                                                • 192

                                                                #311
                                                                Come on Argo's need a TD now!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • tension
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 08-11-10
                                                                  • 192

                                                                  #312
                                                                  I don't care who scores we just need scoring now!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Masu485
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-14-08
                                                                    • 7700

                                                                    #313
                                                                    niice, got my Under and even though u had the Over, it seems you did pretty good off this game also! I love CFL, everybody wins!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • tension
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 08-11-10
                                                                      • 192

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Wow that really hurts, fucken Sask always does this to me
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • BetterBizness
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 05-20-06
                                                                        • 5737

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Well Tension... 30 points at half... 4 in the third, and 10 in the 4th... we lose by 5... not exactly sure how that happened... Capping the under was absolutely crazy in that game that was just go go go all game... but classically to preserve unders... Turnovers and 2 and outs late kill us...

                                                                        Still Cash:

                                                                        1.8 units Over 1Q
                                                                        2.7 Units Tor +11
                                                                        8.20 Units ML
                                                                        = 12.7 Units


                                                                        Net

                                                                        12.7 - 7.5 = 5.2 Units
                                                                        Comment
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