BetterBizness' CFL Thoughts Week 10+

[BetterBizness]

Calgary @ Montreal -3.5 O/U 58

Cal Seasonal Results (Most Recent First)
Mon 21 @ Cal 46 O58
BC 29 @ Cal 10 U58
Cal 37 @ Sask 43 O58
Cal 36 @ Edm 20 U58
Edm 5 @ Cal 52 U58
Cal 48 @ BC 35 O58
Edm 15 @ Cal 56 O58
Calgary 27 @ BC 22 - U58
Win 20 @ Cal 23 - U58
Sask 20 @ Cal 40 - O58
Cal 24 @ Tor 27 - U58
Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U58
Tor 16 @ Cal 30 - U58

Montreal Season Results (Most recent first)
Mon 21 @ Cal 46 O58
Mon 44 @ Win 40 O58
Edm 14 @ Mon 31 U58
Mon 27 @ Ham 6 U58
BC 38 @ Mon 17 U58
Win 17 @ Mon 38 U58
Mon 22 @ Tor 37 - O58
Sask 26 @ Mon 30 - U58
Tor 10 @ Mon 41 - U58
Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - U58
Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U58
Mon 33 @ Edm 23 - U58
Mon 51 @ Sask 54 - O58

Preview to come...

[BetterBizness]

First thing I'm reading everywhere from anyone that hits the CFL is that this is gimme under... and it looks that way by many stretches... Montreal is 6-0 UNDER at home... Calgary is 4-2 OVER 58 on the road...Montreal's Defense is fired up to stop the beating they took last week...

BOTH teams are starting a new center... Montreal got a new kicker to replace K Duval...

So many things lead to the under its' not even funny.... Yet.. I'm going to play contrarian and look at the over since the line since the beginning of the week has dropped an entire point.. the LInes makers MUST be stupid... right?

Calgary on the road has scored 37, 36, 48, 27 in their last 4 ... Montreal @ Home - 31, 17, 38, 30

Burris has thrown for 411, 136, 348, 404 in his last 4... Calvillo has thrown 227, 477, 327 since he came back from injury... His last 2 games.. 8 TD's...

Both of these teams are talking about the defensive battle.. But I don't see it in their nature... I know it's the square play, it really is... But I'm going to bite on the number... 8 TD's and change we need... 1 per team per Quarter.. I'm going to say yes!

In the meanwhile... I think Calgary will seriously unload on Montreal tomorrow.. I don't believe it will be that close... But I'm going to be a little more on the conservative side, as I wasn't with Winnipeg last week and take the points.. since they're giving them to me...

But lay relatively low in the amount of this game...Compared to some of my plays lately...

2 Units Over 57 (at current time)
2 Units Calgary +3.5
.5 Units Parlay Calgary ML 150 + Over 57

[tension]

Why are these 2 games on Monday ? Is it a public holiday in Canuck land ?

[BetterBizness]

Oh FFS.. I put this game into a bunch of NFL parlays thinking it was today... Yes its a Holiday - Thanksgiving in Canada...

Thanks Ten!

[tension]

Thanksgiving ? Oh I didn't think Canada celebrated that. I'm planning a holiday to America with my winnings and I'll be in Vegas for the American thanksgiving

[latinrus]

Following on this also! FFS the Over last night was close! 2nd halves killed me yasterday!

[BetterBizness]

welcome to the thread Latinrus... Glad you could make it... Sucks we missed the big play on the over ffs... unfortunately, jus a couple units on the ML.. I couldn't have spread it out a little more huh

How come when you make a big call, you can't seem to have put a million on it...

[BetterBizness]

The Steam is driving the Calgary under to 56...That's a big move in the CFL... lots of money driving that number down...

[BetterBizness]

Because every point matters.. let see what happens if the number is adjusted 2...56 is a sweet spot in the CFL.. and we get 3 pushes, and another over from Calgary...

Cal Seasonal Results (Most Recent First)
Mon 21 @ Cal 46 O56
BC 29 @ Cal 10 U56
Cal 37 @ Sask 43 O56
Cal 36 @ Edm 20 P56
Edm 5 @ Cal 52 O56
Cal 48 @ BC 35 O56
Edm 15 @ Cal 56 O56
Calgary 27 @ BC 22 - U56
Win 20 @ Cal 23 - U56
Sask 20 @ Cal 40 - O56
Cal 24 @ Tor 27 - U56
Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U56
Tor 16 @ Cal 30 - U56

Montreal Season Results (Most recent first)
Mon 21 @ Cal 46 O56
Mon 44 @ Win 40 O56
Edm 14 @ Mon 31 U56
Mon 27 @ Ham 6 U56
BC 38 @ Mon 17 U56
Win 17 @ Mon 38 U56
Mon 22 @ Tor 37 - O56
Sask 26 @ Mon 30 - P56
Tor 10 @ Mon 41 - U56
Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - U56
Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U56
Mon 33 @ Edm 23 - P56
Mon 51 @ Sask 54 - O56

[xraygord]

This is most interesting, I took the OVER at 57.5 yesterday for a unit...

[BetterBizness]

The last time this much steam plowed through a number, Calgary was -2.5 favs in Saskatchewan, which eventually turn to -3.5 .. and for those of you that forget how that turned out... Calgary was up 11 and lost in O/T ...

[BetterBizness]

This is most interesting, I took the OVER at 57.5 yesterday for a unit...

I liked the over of 57 yesterday xray... I would like it even more if 55.5 would be an option...

56 in the CFL is 37 to the NFL... It is a magic number...

[BetterBizness]

some tidbits I found for this game...

After last week's 46-21 win by the Stamps over Montreal at McMahon Stadium, the all-time series between the teams is dead-even: 30-30-1 . . . The Stamps are 12-18 in games played in Montreal . . . Calgary has a 4-1 record against East Division teams this season; Montreal is 4-3 against the West . . . Calgary and Montreal share the CFL lead in turnover ratio; each has a plus-14 mark . . . Stamps QB Henry Burris has a 2-to-1 TD-to-interception ration against the Alouettes over his career: 26 touchdowns, 13 picks, and a 96.4 QB rating, which is his second-highest against any CFL team . . . The Stamps have held Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo to under 300 yards in passing in three straight games, although it should be noticed that both of last year's efforts were lopsided Montreal victories . . . Calgary R Ken-Yon Rambo has caught touchdown passes in four straight games against Montreal . . . As impressive as the league-leading 120 points Calgary has scored off of turnovers this season is the similarly league-best 48 points Calgary has surrendered after committing a turnover . . .

[BetterBizness]

The 2 chicks are sitting back today as now my avatar is dedicated to the recent Montreal Allouette signing of LSU K Colt David... This, according to credible sources, is his sister.... Go Colt... Get us that Over!!!

[BetterBizness]

Add 1 Unit Calgary +3.5

Total 3 Units Calgary +3.5

[Bbr]

Add 1 Unit Calgary +3.5

Total 3 Units Calgary +3.5

Tailing you on this one. Lets cash.

[BetterBizness]

wow.. Betting against steam on both ends now.. Calgary +3.5 is +101 on pinny... 56 is +100 .. Love when that happens...

Sticking with the plan anyhow... not making huge plays on this game, but big enough...

[BetterBizness]

On one site (Intertops).. Line drops to -105 on the under 56... On Pinny, line JUMPS to 56.5... whoa...

[BetterBizness]

Adding 2 Unit Over 56...

Total 4 Units Over 56...

[infamousbacardi]

Bizness...I've never bet the CFL before...but I'm going to take a look today...good luck to us!! Tailing you on both in a modified version!

2 Team Teaser #188942311 (Placed by Web)Football - CFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
CANADIAN FOOTBALL - WEEK 15
(485) Calgary Stampeders +10½ Mon@12:05p
Competitor486) Montreal AlouettesTeased 7.0 points
Football - CFL Lines (Game) Total
CANADIAN FOOTBALL - WEEK 15
(485) Calgary Stampeders vs. (486) Montreal Alouettes Over 49½ Mon@12:05p
Teased 7.0 points
Risk US$ 67.60 to win US$ 52.00

[BetterBizness]

I like that bet... I really hope that comes through, it means I stood a chance...

[Marigold HD]

I put $1,100 to win $1000 on the over.........I do have a bad feeling though

[Marigold HD]

Yup, this is looking like trouble

[BetterBizness]

Yup.. Ugly so far.. BUrris looks like sheit...

[BetterBizness]

Senor Burris.. any chance of a first down anytime soon...

[BetterBizness]

Glad they extended that drive to get the single... that will help the over...

[BetterBizness]

They are feeling each other out in the first Q... no shots downfield yet... just wait until they open it up...

[BetterBizness]

PS... 2 FG's Colt David... you know you're sisters a star right now doncha!

[BetterBizness]

WP Anthony Calvillo... Montreal 13-1... Maybe the best thing for Calgary to WAKE THE F UP!

[Marigold HD]

lets hope so

[infamousbacardi]

Awesome...13-1...I've never seen a CFL game before, how do you get 1 point???

[BetterBizness]

ON a Punt or Field Goal.. If you miss and they don't run it out... you get a "Rouge" - a single...

[infamousbacardi]

So you get 1 point just for getting down into FG range?

[infamousbacardi]

Burris has lost 2 fumbles as well...should be closer game with perhaps some more points...seems to be ok...it's not a great start, but it's still there for the taking.

[BetterBizness]

FFS Calgary... do SOMETHING...