BetterBizness' CFL Thoughts Week 10+

BetterBizness · 08-29-10, 12:41 PM

Week 6-9 Updated Scorecard

The So far CFL record as Noted in Various threads... I started in Week 6

Week 6 - Start
Sask @ Mon = +3.6 Units
Win @ Ham = +2 Units
Cal @ BC = +3 Units
Tor @ Edm = -1.1 Unit

Overall Week 6 = +7.5 Units

Week 7
BC @ Sask = 0.0 Units
Ham @ Win = + 1.0 Units
T.O @ Mon -= + 2.65 Units
Edm @ Cal = -1 Unit

Prop Bets 2-1 +.7 Units

Week 7 Total = +3.35 Units

Week 8

Win @ Mon = +1.9 Units
Ham @ Tor = +1.9 Units

Week 8 Total = +3.8 Units

Week 9
Cal @ BC = +2.7 Units
Sask @ BC = +3.7 Units

Week 9 Total = +6.4 Units

Overall Week 6+7+8+9 Total = +21.05 Units

BetterBizness · 08-29-10, 12:54 PM

Week 10 Games

Friday, Sep 3rd
B.C. @ Montreal

Sun, Sep 5th
Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Monday, Sep 6th
Toronto @ Hamilton
Edmonton @ Calgary

BetterBizness · 08-29-10, 01:03 PM

Early Leans

Originally posted by BetterBizness

Friday, Sep 3rd
B.C. @ Montreal

Sun, Sep 5th
Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Monday, Sep 6th
Toronto @ Hamilton
Edmonton @ Calgary

Friday, Sep 3rd
B.C. @ Montreal

Got to think Montreal, if without QB Cavillo, will adjust the number to somewhere around 7-8... If A.C is in, probably 10-12... Books have been very scared to make big lines the past 3 weeks, and they have not done well... Let's not tell them... I think early on, pending on QB we can almost jump on anything 10 and less no matter who is at QB...

Sun, Sep 5th
Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Sask comes off a HUGE loss in Edmonton... Another 2 weeks off for Win QB Pierce could help.. But an Angry bounce back game from Sask at home could be more double digits... Again, anything under 8 I'm probably looking to pound early...

Monday, Sep 6th
Toronto @ Hamilton
This may be the game of the week... Ham at home, beating Tor on the road last time... Toronto wants to even the score... Ham probably -2.5 here, but I'm looking at the distraction factor of Hamilton @ home huge... Lots of Politics that can cause alot of chaos.... Leaning Toronto ...

Edmonton @ Calgary

I said we should look at what Edmonton does at Home to Sask... Ok.. QB Zebransky stepped in and looked VERY poised.. Maybe not enough yet for a QB controversy, but the Boise St. boy looked really good despite a couple of rushed underthrown tosses for INT's ... I love the way he steps out of the pocket.. But Calgary Defense is poised, and the last time I thought the Esks were going to play close to Calgary, they lost by 40...

I see Calgary still by no less than 8, maybe as much as 10... The Lean as a homer is the Esks, but the number has to be in the double digits...

AndyCapper · 08-29-10, 04:23 PM

Thanks BBiz for the Under in the Edm/Sask game!!!

It was a good weekend for me, went 2 for 2 with you big CFL picks

BetterBizness · 08-29-10, 04:34 PM

Thanks A.Cap!!!

AndyCapper · 08-29-10, 04:42 PM

My Weekend:
Cal(-5)/ BC 3x

Edm/ Sask Under 3x

Edm/ Sask Under Halftime 1x

Sask(-6)/ Edm in a parlay 1x

All in All an awesome weekend! Thanks Bbiz! I'm lovin this CFL Money, keep it comin'

BetterBizness · 08-29-10, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by AndyCapper

My Weekend:
Cal(-5)/ BC 3x

Edm/ Sask Under 3x

Edm/ Sask Under Halftime 1x

Sask(-6)/ Edm in a parlay 1x

All in All an awesome weekend! Thanks Bbiz! I'm lovin this CFL Money, keep it comin'

I did say Fade me on the Esks too... I'm no less then shocked Riders were up 14-0 and didn't score again... Clear fade next week on the Esks... Who BTW are tied for the final playoff spot... and likely won't be 80-1 this week...

BetterBizness · 08-30-10, 01:45 PM

Greek set the early lines

BC @ Mon -10.5

Win @ Sask -10.5

Tor @ Ham -3.5

Edm @ Cal -12

BetterBizness · 08-30-10, 01:50 PM

We all knew the day would come when the Books attempted to get smarter... The lines have finally been launched... 3 in the Double Digits

This will be a tougher week I think... We may have to chase a little more first half stuff possibly to adjust...

Winnipeg may have the best chance to cover i think in early thoughts.. They play most games tough, and we have to know where the Riders attitudes are at after losing in Edm...

Edmonton may be worth leaning on.. or even buying a couple points on... Or it's one hel of a trap... It's those 18-20 point thrashings that get a garbage TD late that mess these up alot...

Toronto seems like a very fair cover, if Not ML... I'm riding with the distraction issue of Hamilton in this spot alot with their possible moving ...

Montreal is all about Calvillo... I may be inclined to shoot with BC here.. but alot has to work for them, and it hasn't so far...

balman · 08-30-10, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by BetterBizness

Greek set the early lines

BC @ Mon -10.5

Win @ Sask -10.5

Tor @ Ham -3.5

Edm @ Cal -12

agree these lines are a lo sharper than past few weeks..

my ealry leans, not betting yet, would be

bc +10.5 if no AC, Mont -10.5 if AC plays
Win +10.5 (sask makes to many mistakes on offence, i see a sask win by 7 or less)
tor @ ham no play at 3, maybe TO at 3.5 or better to close to call
Cal -12 (edmonton got a early xmas present from sask last week, calgary is the best team in the league right now and if burris would stop throwing INTs they would win by 3TDs instead of 2)

Cheers

AndyCapper · 08-30-10, 09:23 PM

Agree with you Balman, AC is the deciding factor in the Mont/BC game. Do you know what AC's chances of playing are?

BetterBizness · 08-30-10, 11:37 PM

It's for sure...

He said he will definitely miss Friday's game against B.C., but hopes to be back for the next game on Sept. 11 in Hamilton against the Tiger-Cats...

So we are putting all our hope in Chris Leak? The last time Leak started a game was on Jan. 8, 2007, when he led the Gators to a 41-14 victory over Ohio State for the NCAA championship.

Leak completed 10 of 15 passes for 99 yards after Calvillo went down. Leak attempted only 11 passes during the 2009 season.

BetterBizness · 08-30-10, 11:42 PM

It's hard for me at this point to like anything about the MOntreal game... I believe it's a pure guess as to how a young rookie will play in his first start in the CFL...

It would be a shot to take the Lions of course, but it's a tough spot... maybe worth looking at the under if anything...

BetterBizness · 08-31-10, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by balman

Cal -12 (edmonton got a early xmas present from sask last week, calgary is the best team in the league right now and if burris would stop throwing INTs they would win by 3TDs instead of 2)

Cheers

The Homer in me, despite drunk at the time.. Would disagree from what I remember of that Sask game.. Durant didn't make the most of his opps, combined with the Esk D really playing well not allowing a point in the last 3 Quarters...

If THAT edmonton brings THAT game to the table... +12 isn't THAT crazy..

Or is that the trick?

balman · 08-31-10, 09:19 PM

BB..
your right no AC in montreal so under is likely the best bet, total is low for CFL 49.5.. lions +10.5 without AC for montreal i think is still a good bet... haha like you might be homer in me talking...

BetterBizness · 09-03-10, 02:55 AM

This will be the preview for Wedding Saturday... So I will do as much preview the day before instead of doing Wedding things...

BC @ Montreal -10.5 O/U 51

BC Seasonal Results (Most recent first)
Cal 48 @ BC 35 O51
BC 13 @ Sask 37 U51
Cal 27 @ BC 22 -U51
BC 25 @ Edm 28 - O51
BC 20 @ Tor 24 - U51
Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U51
Sask 37 @ BC 18 - O51
BC 25 @ Edm 10 - U51

Montreal Season Results (Most recent first)
Win 17 @ Mon 38 O51
Mon 22 @ Tor 37 - O51
Sask 26 @ Mon 30 - O51
Tor 10 @ Mon 41 - P51
Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - P51
Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U51
Mon 33 @ Edm 23 - O51
Mon 51 @ Sask 54 - O51

Clearly the entire game revolves around a Guess? Will Mon Backup QB Chris Leak do the things he's supposed to do? Or maybe, What exactly is he supposed to do?

I'm thinking The Line in Montreal set with a TD and FG in mind is set right off the bat to trap all of us into thinking BC will have the game of a lifetime.. Because, Cavillo or NOT... this is a very good team... with a VERY good coach in Marc Trestman... whose list of groomed QB's over the years includes Bernie Kosar, Steve Young, Jake Plummer and most recently, Tim Tebow.

Another piece for those thinking BC is the Longshot of the week...

"Calvillo missed three 2007 games with a rotator cuff problem, including one against B.C. However, backup Marcus Brady had 300 yards on just 13 completions in his first start in two years and the Lions left town fuming again, 32-14 losers."

I'm having all sorts of problems betting the Lions in this spot, despite loving longshots... I think Montreal will control clock, and play better defense and win in a lower scoring ugly 27-14 type game...

I'm laying .5 Units on the Al's because I'm not in love with this trap at all... But I really like the Under here with game management and 1 unit on the under 51...

balman · 09-03-10, 10:41 AM

agree the under is the play here..

cheers
Balman

tension · 09-03-10, 05:12 PM

Hi BB! For some reason I was wondering why the other thread wasn't being updated heh.

I'll go with you with 1 unit on the unders

balman · 09-03-10, 09:05 PM

dam QBs killing the under...

tension · 09-03-10, 09:12 PM

Well that 3rd quarter totally screwed the unders.

AndyCapper · 09-05-10, 01:12 PM

Any thoughts on todays Win-Sask game???

balman · 09-05-10, 01:40 PM

i would play sask -9.5 but 1/2unit play.. not happy with the way Darian Durant is playing right now... to many turnovers by Sask.. but the D is solid..

AndyCapper · 09-05-10, 02:05 PM

Might just lay off this game altogether. Bbal, what about tomorrows games? Any insight?

AndyCapper · 09-05-10, 07:15 PM

Tight game between Sask-Win as predicted. Winnipeg covered -9.5. Glad I laid off, was leaning towards Sask.
Lets get some of that CFL $$$ tomorrow

BetterBizness · 09-05-10, 11:43 PM

Sorry Boys.. was away for a day... Will be updating tomorrows games in the Morning for the 3 people that follow the thread

I think I was leaning on Winnipeg to cover anyhow, but after I got crushed on Montreal Last night...

tension · 09-06-10, 07:37 AM

Without your write up I've gone with Toronto Argonauts win @ $2.60. Game starts at 4:30am my local time so it should be close to finished by the time I get up for work.

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 12:32 PM

Toronto @ Hamilton -4 O/U 49

Hamilton @ Toronto -2.5 O.U 49.5

Hamilton Seasonal Results (Most Recent first)
Ham 16 @ Tor 12 U49.5
Ham 39 @ Win 17 - O49.5
Win 22 @ Ham 29 - U49.5
Ham 24 @ Sask 37 - O49.5
Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - O49.5
Win 7 @ Ham 28 - U49.5
Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U49.5
Ham 29 @ Win 49 - O49.5

Toronto Seasonal Results (Most recent first)
Ham 16 @ Tor 12 U49.5
Mon 22 @ Tor 37 - O49.5
Tor 29 @ Edm 28 - O49.5
Tor 10 @ Mon 41 - O49.5
BC 20 @ Tor 24 - U49.5
Cal 24 @ Tor 27 - O49.5
Tor 36 @ Win 34 - O49.5
Tor 16 @ Cal 30 - U49.5

At First look... The over is appealing... Toronto has played 5 of 7 over, and When Toronto wins.. They tend to correlate with the over as well... If you are Toronto, it's a good bet to go over... although I think 49 is a low number in general, and before the last game in Toronto where they scored 16, they on their own scored 39, 29, and 24...

Which comes down to CAN Toronto win this game... I'm saying YES! My early lean on the Hamilton Distraction factor is mildly still in play.. But I really lean more to the fact that Toronto REALLY should have won that last game... 13 points for the Ti-Cats in the 4th, with 9 of those coming in the last 6 minutes says that Hamilton deserved the win, but snuck it out when no one was looking... I'm looking for Toronto, particularly, QB Lemon to come back using the Strong running game of RB Boyd to get the Offense moving, and adjusted... One quote FOR the Argo's I liked

"Coach Barker did a great job of making it a process so I have learned the (CFL) game one step at a time,” Lemon said. “By the time we were in training camp, I felt comfortable with the system. I did not have it down by any means, but I felt like I had the foundation to rely on.”

I think this kid is getting better adjusting to the CFL game, and I expect him to do ok, considering he was 18-31 last game they didn't even score a TD...

I am making a BOLD play taking:

1 Unit Parlay - Toronto ML + Over 49.5
2 Units - Over 49.5

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 01:38 PM

Edmonton @ Calgary -12.5 O/U 54

Edmonton Seasonal Results (Most recent first)
Sask 14 @ Edm 17 - U54
Edm 15 @ Cal 56 - O54
Tor 29 @ Edm 28 - O54
BC 25 @ Edm 28 - U54
Edm 21 @ Win 47 - O54
Edm 20 @ Sask 24 - U54
Mon 33 @ Edm 23 - O54
BC 25 @ Edm 10 - U54

Cal Seasonal Results (Most Recent First)
Cal 48 @ BC 35 O54
Edm 15 @ Cal 56 O54
Calgary 27 @ BC 22 - U54
Win 20 @ Cal 23 - U54
Sask 20 @ Cal 40 - O54
Cal 24 @ Tor 27 - O54
Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U54
Tor 16 @ Cal 30 - U54

This is a great article that sums up this game...

Edmonton Journal

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/John+MacKinnon+Esks+Stamps+study+contrasts/3486365/story.html

Cliffs:

The Stampeders are 7-1, the best team in the CFL, undefeated at home and against West Division opponents, successfully battling complacency, and loaded with skill players performing at or near their peak.

The Eskimos are 2-6, one victory into what they have framed as a brand new season, which means they're also one victory away from that fragile club that fired GM Danny Maciocia after the club's first win this season, changed a couple of position coaches and is scouring NFL roster cuts and examining possible CFL trades in an effort to shore up their lineup. The Eskimos have a 1-2 receiving tandem of Fred Stamps, who is injured, and Kelly Campbell, who is a game-time decision, owing to an ankle sprain that had him on crutches much of the week.

The only thing I got for the Esks, is that they won't lose by 40... But if they lose by 14 it very well may be a moral victory...

Going to play

1.5 Units Under 54
0.5 ML Esks +500 because good contrarian betting OBViously says there is no way Esks have a chance...

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 02:31 PM

Toronto Game is Rediculous...

2 INTs In the Red Zone... And a fumble... Terrible start so far

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 02:37 PM

Third time now in the Red zone... twice within the 10... Any chance of a FG?

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 02:58 PM

Wow a Blocked Punt with 2 seconds left... 20-6 at half despite everything... Fantastic!!!

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 02:59 PM

Trust me Toronto STILL has a great chance to win this game.. if they do we call it perfect... Their Offense has been Fantastic, must have 200+ yards... Just 2 bad picks...

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 03:31 PM

Toronto FINALLY gets their TD.. we're getting there...

Looking to Toronto NEXT week @ BC with anything -3 or less... Lemon is getting more and more comfortable as a CFL QB...

BetterBizness · 09-06-10, 03:52 PM

Toronto nearly 350 Yards of Offense going into the 4th Q .. Down by 14