BetterBizness' CFL Thoughts Week 10+

[tension]

The bookies in Australia don't have markets for quarter by quarter, I only get options for ML, Line and over/unders.

Oh well might give this game a miss and see whats on the table for tomorrow.

Oh byt the way BB its AFL Grand final day here today (Australia's equivalent of the super bowl). Collingwood should win easily but I have a feeling they make choke so I've gone 10 units on St Kilda +24.5

GL with your Montreal picks.

[BetterBizness]

tnx ten... i will lay some down on Kilda then... I watched the Magpies last week, how can they keep up that momentum?

[BetterBizness]

10-0 Montreal half way through first Q... we are nearly there, with some cushion... Lets get the first one...

[BetterBizness]

The bookies in Australia don't have markets for quarter by quarter, I only get options for ML, Line and over/unders.

Oh well might give this game a miss and see whats on the table for tomorrow.

Oh byt the way BB its AFL Grand final day here today (Australia's equivalent of the super bowl). Collingwood should win easily but I have a feeling they make choke so I've gone 10 units on St Kilda +24.5

GL with your Montreal picks.

Good Call Tension.. I am reluctant to pull the trigger on "randomness" ... I think Montreal will cover, but I also hate the chance of the backdoor cover which WInnipeg has been really good in the second half... It's hard with the thread because I feel, and this is NOT any excuse for the lack of Plus Units lately, that I MUST make a play... With 4 games a week though, the thread is at least some sort of entertainment value, and gives at least an IDEA of what the texture of the game is...

But with that said, unlike the NFL, the advantage is that I can focus on watching EVERY game and get a better feel for 8 teams, as opposed to the 30 in the NFL... and I CAN watch every game, where the US market can't.... so there is definately give and take...

[BetterBizness]

This safety should keep us safe in the first Q... they shouldn't go for 2 this early even if they score...

[BetterBizness]

ok they scored... F ME... now what?

[BetterBizness]

Perfect... they kick a convert as expected... 1:08 left...

[tension]

Mon -0.5 Q1 is good. nice call.

[BetterBizness]

OK we got out of it...

Cash

Montreal -0.5 Q1 - 1 Unit

[BetterBizness]

How bad is Montreal right now... Winnipeg 16-10 off of a 73 yd TD... We'll be fortunate to get this half time...

[BetterBizness]

Good night MOntreal... I want to find a second half line to bet against this sad sack team... Bad Penalties, Missed Tackles... We know what that adds up to... Happy to get out of this game down a unit...

[BetterBizness]

I"m a sucker for punishment... Winnipeg currently leads 26-17 @ Half

1.5 Units 2nd Half Montreal -5

[BetterBizness]

Well the over is already done for those that liked the points... we still have over 20 min left...

[BetterBizness]

Wow... Fumble on QB Calvillo for TD , now we have to work for the second half too when we looked good for the entire quarter... Comon Als!!!

[BetterBizness]

Cash Montreal 1.5 Units -5 - 2nd Half...

[BetterBizness]

Tension took some on Magpies ML...

[tension]

Maggies are looking good, I hope the saints can come back and keep it close in the 2nd half.

[tension]

WOWWWWW a draw!!! Game gets replayed next week. I am pretty sure all ML bets are a loss as there usually is a draw option which is usually at 51:1

Bets on Saints against the spread is win but Collingwood ATS is a loss.

[BetterBizness]

What a FN Jokeeeeeeeeeee!!!! I bet the ML and LOSE??? F me...

[BetterBizness]

I"m trying to figure out if I get the Push or not.. My bet hasn't been graded yet...

What a HORRIBLE rule...

[BetterBizness]

WOW... I get something back... Maybe this will teach me a lesson for betting a sport I know nothing about... well. probably not...

Football codes: including Australian Rules, Rugby League, Super League and Rugby Union. Wagers will be paid on the Final result of a contest (normal time or extra time where applicable). In the event of a draw (tie) as the final result - moneyline wagers on either team will be graded as half face value of the ticket. Half the bet is paid off at the quoted price, and half the bet loses.

So I lose a unit and some... could have been alot worse let me tell you...

[BetterBizness]

The bookies in Australia don't have markets for quarter by quarter, I only get options for ML, Line and over/unders.

Oh well might give this game a miss and see whats on the table for tomorrow.

Oh byt the way BB its AFL Grand final day here today (Australia's equivalent of the super bowl). Collingwood should win easily but I have a feeling they make choke so I've gone 10 units on St Kilda +24.5

GL with your Montreal picks.

Tension did you tease it? How did you get 24.5? I saw 16.5 and I was confused.. so I bet ML...

[Spartacuss]

im on Calgary -10.0 for tomorrow. Im hoping to have my 1st cfl win.

[tension]

Yea BB I went with the higher line but lower payout +24.5 was paying $1.68 as opposed to the usual $1.90 line. A ton of aussie got stung big time on todays result.

I'm also thinking Sask + overs for Lions/Stamps for tomorrow but waiting on BB's breakdown of plays.

[Masu485]

have 4 units on the BC/Cal game. 2 on BC +11 and 2 on the Over. I've NEVER had 4 units on one game before! this is stressful.

Also have 1 unit on the Over in the Riders game.

[BetterBizness]

Well ok then.. Since everyone is up (particularly those in Aussieland).. I'll have something up within the hour for the both games tonight...

[BetterBizness]

Saskatchewan @ Hamilton -1.5 O/U 52.5

Hamilton Seasonal Results (Most Recent first)
Ham 35 @ BC 31 O52.5
Mon 27 @ Ham 6 U52.5
Tor 13 @ Ham 28 U52.5
Ham 16 @ Tor 12 U52.5
Ham 39 @ Win 17 - O52.5
Win 22 @ Ham 29 - U52.5
Ham 24 @ Sask 37 - O52.5
Ham 14 @ Mon 37 - U52.5
Win 7 @ Ham 28 - U52.5
Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U52.5
Ham 29 @ Win 49 - O52.5

Seasonal Sask Results (most recent first)
Cal 37 @ Sask 43 O52.5
Sask 2 @ Win 31 - U52.5
Win 23 @ Sask 27 - U52.5
Sask 14 @ Edm 17 - U52.5
BC 13 @ Sask 37 - U52.5
Sask 26 @ Mon 30 - O52.5
Ham 24 @ Sask 38 - O52.5
Sask 20 @ Cal 40 - O52.5
Edm 20 @ Sask 24 - U52.5
Sask 38 @ BC 18 - O52.5
Mon 51 @ Sask 54 - O52.5

Its just looking like in General, Overs are starting to find their way particularly with teams that are CAPABLE of overs (Eskimos not part of this club obviously) ...

These 2 teams are DEFinitely capable of the over, and have already proven it earlier in the year with 62 points... Hate to sound "chasey" but, I don't expect the Tiger Cats are "due" to play incredible defense.. After last week, they are just happy to start getting the offense together, as are most teams I've watched these last couple of weeks (3 of 5 overs thus far)... The problem is looking at the 4 of 5 overs Sask played recently, and 3 of 4 by the Cats... I think this is the right timing at the right number ....


On the other side of the game itself... It's a guessing game again... It's probably safe to assume that Our man Ham QB Glenn is out of his funk... But then again, what do I know? Same goes with our man Sas QB Durant who torched the Calgary Secondary to WR Fantuze last week...

I really don't like the pickem here, I don't like the fact that the Riders are HORRIBLE on the road.. and that Hamilton is still working out issues that need at least a couple of games to resolve... I'm laying off the Winner of this game and just hoping for entertainment in numbers...

So on that Note:

2.5 Units - Over 52.5

[BetterBizness]

BC @ Calgary -11 O/U 54.5

BC Seasonal Results (Most recent first)
Ham 35 @ BC 31 O54.5
Tor 16 @ BC 37 U54.5
BC 38 @ Mon 17 O54.5
Cal 48 @ BC 35 O54.5
BC 13 @ Sask 37 U54.5
Cal 27 @ BC 22 -U54.5
BC 25 @ Edm 28 - U54.5
BC 20 @ Tor 24 - U54.5
Mon 16 @ BC 12 - U54.5
Sask 37 @ BC 18 - O54.5
BC 25 @ Edm 10 - U54.5

Cal Seasonal Results (Most Recent First)
Cal 37 @ Sask 43 O54.5
Cal 36 @ Edm 20 O54.5
Edm 5 @ Cal 52 O54.5
Cal 48 @ BC 35 O54.5
Edm 15 @ Cal 56 O54.5
Calgary 27 @ BC 22 - U54.5
Win 20 @ Cal 23 - U54.5
Sask 20 @ Cal 40 - O54.5
Cal 24 @ Tor 27 - O54.5
Cal 23 @ Ham 22 - U54.5
Tor 16 @ Cal 30 - U54.5

So after 2 games of picking up previous cash on soft Calgary lines vs BC, now the line is probably about where it should be... So what do we do with it? Went from 10 to 11 today, which in the CFL not only says possible Backdoor Cover if things get out of hand... We actually have a pretty good BC team as of late telling us that they are better than the beginning of the year...

Then again... BC gave up a huge lead last week, while committing 5 turnovers in their loss to the Tiger Cats... are STILL 3-8, have just 5 Defensive Linemen Dressed with injuries all around, and oh ya, Calgary has beaten the Lions NINE STRAIGHT TIMES...

Not to mention, Calgary is STILL angry after their unexpected loss last week in Regina (Saskatchewan) ... and is playing for their Home field, that they can lock up tonight... meaning there is STILL that motivation to play to cover...

and Cover they WILL...

1.5 Units Calgary 1H -6
2 Units Calgary -11

If Calgary wins, they have been over the number their past 5, BC 3 of 4... With a banged up BC Defensive line, I'm worried this game may get out of hand and Calgary MAY letdown...On the other hand, Calgary like to blow out bad teams and STILL find ways to get over... I'll lay light here and say

1 Unit Over 54.5

[BetterBizness]

14-0 Hamilton half way through first Q... Good start...

[tension]

Damnit why didn't Sask play this bad last week against the Stamps.

[BetterBizness]

Did you get the play Tension?

So far so good 18-14 w 2 min left...

[BetterBizness]

WOWWW. did you SEE that Catch at the end of the half by Sask QR Dressler for a TD? Highlight for MANY weeks to come... Full extension + 2 somersaults on the ground and recovery for the last 2 yards...

[BetterBizness]

21 - 18 at the Half and we are looking good on the OVERRRRRRR

[BetterBizness]

Lets see if we can catch a good line in the 2nd half to maybe middle this mofo...

[BetterBizness]

ok due to the pace of the game

1 Unit 2nd Half O27