NFL Odds: Packers Favored Versus Colts
Will we see a concerted effort tonight from the Indianapolis Colts when they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 3 of the NFL preseason? Maybe, maybe not. The Colts have won just four of their past 24 exhibition games, covering only six against the NFL spread in that span. But Week 3 has seen Indy's best chances. ESPN has the game beginning at 8 p.m. (ET) from not-yet frozen Lambeau Field.
Maybe now the Indianapolis Colts will take things seriously.
Not that they have to. The NFL exhibition season isn’t about winning and losing; it’s about getting your players ready for the games that count. Indianapolis is 4-20 SU and 6-17-1 ATS in exhibition play over the past six seasons, including 0-2 SU and ATS this year. Why would they bother busting their collective hump Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers?
They wouldn’t. But before you go rushing to punch your ticket for Green Bay, don’t forget that this is a very special time of year: Week 3 of the preseason, when the starting unit will get a proper dress rehearsal for the 2010 campaign. Here’s how the Colts have fared in their third exhibition game in recent years:
2009: Indianapolis 17, Detroit Lions 18 (DET +3)
2008: Indianapolis 16, Atlanta Falcons 9 (IND +3)
2007: Detroit 10, Indianapolis 37 (IND -6½)
2006: Indianapolis 27, New Orleans Saints 14 (IND -3½)
2005: Chicago Bears 24, Indianapolis 17 (CHI +6)
2004: Buffalo Bills 17, Indianapolis 30 (IND -6½)
2003: Indianapolis 28, Denver Broncos 23 (IND +5)
2002: Buffalo 7, Indianapolis 19 (IND -4)
That’s not too shabby. Even over the past five years, with the Colts being so laissez-faire about the preseason, they’re 3-2 SU and ATS in Week 3. That’s testament to how really, really good Peyton Manning and the Indy starters have become. They made the playoffs in each of the seasons listed above, winning the AFC title twice and the Super Bowl once, after the 2006 campaign.
The Packers don’t have the same credentials to fall back upon at this time of year. They’re still working on all aspects of the game despite going 11-5 (11-4-1 ATS) in 2009. Here are Green Bay’s Week 3 results in their two seasons with Aaron Rodgers at starting quarterback:
2009: Arizona Cardinals 37, Green Bay 44 (GB +3½)
2008: Green Bay 27, Denver 24 (GB +3)
That’s part of a 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS exhibition record under Rodgers (1-1 SU and ATS this year). His 2010 preseason thus far has been nearly perfect: 20-of-24 passing for 276 yards and three touchdowns, with zero interceptions and zero sacks. That eclipses Manning’s numbers after two games: 16-of-25, 182 yards, one TD and one pick, although that pick arguably should have been caught by WR Anthony Gonzalez.
Since we can get away with treating this Week 3 matchup like a regular season game, the problem with betting on the Colts here is with the offensive line. As great as Manning is, he’s operating behind a front five that will be missing center Jeff Saturday and left tackle Charlie Johnson. They’ll be facing a strong Packers defensive line that ranked third in run blocking efficiency last year and picked up 37 sacks, good for 11th place out of the 30 teams. If that wasn’t enough, tight end Dallas Clark (100 catches last year) is also out with a left leg injury.
Let’s not forget as well that the starters should be long gone by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. This is not good for Colts supporters. Curtis Painter appears to be in over his head at the NFL level; the former Purdue star took what was a 10-0 lead against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 and turned it into a 27-10 deficit with three picks and a fumble. The Niners (–3.5 road faves) went on to win 37-17.
Matt Flynn, on the other hand, was serviceable in relief of Rodgers during the previous two exhibition seasons before hitting a snag this year with a pair of interceptions and a pair of fumbles. But Flynn did lead the LSU Tigers to the national championship, and he looks like Manning compared to Painter. That could be the difference Thursday night with the Packers laying four points on the NFL betting odds.
Will we see a concerted effort tonight from the Indianapolis Colts when they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 3 of the NFL preseason? Maybe, maybe not. The Colts have won just four of their past 24 exhibition games, covering only six against the NFL spread in that span. But Week 3 has seen Indy's best chances. ESPN has the game beginning at 8 p.m. (ET) from not-yet frozen Lambeau Field.
Maybe now the Indianapolis Colts will take things seriously.
Not that they have to. The NFL exhibition season isn’t about winning and losing; it’s about getting your players ready for the games that count. Indianapolis is 4-20 SU and 6-17-1 ATS in exhibition play over the past six seasons, including 0-2 SU and ATS this year. Why would they bother busting their collective hump Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers?
They wouldn’t. But before you go rushing to punch your ticket for Green Bay, don’t forget that this is a very special time of year: Week 3 of the preseason, when the starting unit will get a proper dress rehearsal for the 2010 campaign. Here’s how the Colts have fared in their third exhibition game in recent years:
2009: Indianapolis 17, Detroit Lions 18 (DET +3)
2008: Indianapolis 16, Atlanta Falcons 9 (IND +3)
2007: Detroit 10, Indianapolis 37 (IND -6½)
2006: Indianapolis 27, New Orleans Saints 14 (IND -3½)
2005: Chicago Bears 24, Indianapolis 17 (CHI +6)
2004: Buffalo Bills 17, Indianapolis 30 (IND -6½)
2003: Indianapolis 28, Denver Broncos 23 (IND +5)
2002: Buffalo 7, Indianapolis 19 (IND -4)
That’s not too shabby. Even over the past five years, with the Colts being so laissez-faire about the preseason, they’re 3-2 SU and ATS in Week 3. That’s testament to how really, really good Peyton Manning and the Indy starters have become. They made the playoffs in each of the seasons listed above, winning the AFC title twice and the Super Bowl once, after the 2006 campaign.
The Packers don’t have the same credentials to fall back upon at this time of year. They’re still working on all aspects of the game despite going 11-5 (11-4-1 ATS) in 2009. Here are Green Bay’s Week 3 results in their two seasons with Aaron Rodgers at starting quarterback:
2009: Arizona Cardinals 37, Green Bay 44 (GB +3½)
2008: Green Bay 27, Denver 24 (GB +3)
That’s part of a 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS exhibition record under Rodgers (1-1 SU and ATS this year). His 2010 preseason thus far has been nearly perfect: 20-of-24 passing for 276 yards and three touchdowns, with zero interceptions and zero sacks. That eclipses Manning’s numbers after two games: 16-of-25, 182 yards, one TD and one pick, although that pick arguably should have been caught by WR Anthony Gonzalez.
Since we can get away with treating this Week 3 matchup like a regular season game, the problem with betting on the Colts here is with the offensive line. As great as Manning is, he’s operating behind a front five that will be missing center Jeff Saturday and left tackle Charlie Johnson. They’ll be facing a strong Packers defensive line that ranked third in run blocking efficiency last year and picked up 37 sacks, good for 11th place out of the 30 teams. If that wasn’t enough, tight end Dallas Clark (100 catches last year) is also out with a left leg injury.
Let’s not forget as well that the starters should be long gone by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. This is not good for Colts supporters. Curtis Painter appears to be in over his head at the NFL level; the former Purdue star took what was a 10-0 lead against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 and turned it into a 27-10 deficit with three picks and a fumble. The Niners (–3.5 road faves) went on to win 37-17.
Matt Flynn, on the other hand, was serviceable in relief of Rodgers during the previous two exhibition seasons before hitting a snag this year with a pair of interceptions and a pair of fumbles. But Flynn did lead the LSU Tigers to the national championship, and he looks like Manning compared to Painter. That could be the difference Thursday night with the Packers laying four points on the NFL betting odds.