4 game parlay that WILL hit - writeup included

[eglickman]

1. KENTUCKY PK @ Florida State WIN
2. FLORIDA PK vs Michigan (Jan 1)
3. Redskins PK @ Seattle (Saturday)
4. Jaguars -1.5 @ Pittsburgh (Saturday

Reasons
1. Florida State will be sitting a large chunk of its starting lineup because of a huge cheating scandal. I would've picked Kentucky regardless of this, having had a great season, even picking off #1 LSU. Any of their losses came down to the wire and were against top teams. Kentucky wins this game BIG.

2. Florida is the far superior team, having an elite Heisman-winning QB in Tim Tebow, who scored the most touchdowns in all of college football this year, and a top receiver in Percy Harvin, who many think should have also been a Heisman candidate this season. Florida has been dominating all season, and would've been a BCS national championship candidate, had it not slipped up against #1 LSU in the closing minutes. This will be a high-scoring affair, but Florida wins easily.

3. The Redskins are hot right now, making few mistakes. They are rolling on every cylinder. The defense held the Cowboys to one yard last game. Don't think that it's because they rested their starters. Many starters weren't rested until the second half. The Redskins held Cowboys RB's like Marion Barber and Julius Jones to one yard after penalties. Romo was in for over an half and scored 0 TD's. The Redskins have also improved much from last season, effectively stopping long passes. Safety LaRon Landry, out of LSU, is just one of the defensive players to thank for this. The Redskins offense is also doing very well. I don't care what everyone says about Todd Collins. Who cares about his history? I couldn't care less if he never snapped a football in his life. Maybe he is a nobody, but right now, he is playing like a somebody. He's thrown for 664 yards in the last three games and 3 TD's, with much precision. I'm fairly sure Collins has thrown 0 interceptions as well. Him throwing to Santana Moss is starting to embody Tom Brady throwing to Randy Moss. The two are a great combination. Collins has also had much help from RB Clinton Portis, who is arguably one of the best RB's in the league. In recent weeks, he ran for 126 yards and a TD against the Giants, 76 yards and a TD against Minesota's top rush defense, and 104 yards and 2 TD's against Dallas. Take Redskins straight up, and if you still don't believe me, at least take the points. I think it's at +4 right now. I don't know if Sean Taylor's death is impacting their game, but I also want to throw in the fact that the Redskins haven't lost since attending his funeral. They're on a 4 game win streak and were the underdog in at least half of these games.

4. I expect the Jaguars to run all over the Steelers. From doing a little research, I found out that the Steelers most lethal area is in rushing. They're 3rd in the league in rushing, while only 22nd in passing, and 17th in yards. However, and this is a big however, their leading rusher, Willie Parker, is injured and will not play in the game. Also, Steelers QB Roethlisberger also recently suffered an ankle injury. He didn't practice this week and was kept out of the Steeler's season finale. Who knows if he'll play his best game against the Jaguars. Regardless of the injury, he has been a little inconsistent this year. The Steelers have lost 3 of their last 4, including a loss to the Jaguars. The Jaguars, conversely, have won 3 of their last 4. They've been cliquing very well lately, and also have two explosive RB's in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Covering -1.5 will not be a problem for the Jaguars.

This parlay has about a 1:7 yield.

[remmy358]

you're guaranteeing a 4 teamer....ok...good luck, hope you hit.

[eglickman]

I'm not guaranteeing it, but I think it's a strong play. I'm 4-0 on my last four NFL plays (Redskins over Vikings, Redskins covering with Cowboys, Titans covering, Ravens covering over Pittsburgh). It's a huge yield, so not much has to be risked. I'm just trying to provide some information in helping people make some picks. If you're not sure about them all, maybe do a straight wager on one or two of them.

[Tchocky]

I like all your picks. Good luck.

[SBR Lou]

Good luck with the parlay.

[heineken]

that will hit.

[minet123]

Good Luck with your plays

[Doc JS]

I'm not guaranteeing it, but...

Umm...the title of the thread is:
4 game parlay that WILL hit

That sorta sounds like a guarentee to me.

Or should the title of the thread been:
4 game parlay that I think it's a strong play

Well...at least you didn't call it a LOCK or is WILL HIT pretty much the same thing as a LOCK???

Either way...good luck with your play. My personal opinion, FWIW, is that I doubt that both road teams will win in the NFL. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both difficult places to play in January.

[louis]

I disagree with the Redskins. The Cowboys may not have rested starters the whole game, but they sure didn't go out there and expose all their plays so their playoff opponents could study them. The Cowboys ran basic stuff, and did pull starters near the end. This idea that the Redskins are "hot" and on a "streak" just makes the line a better value on the boring Seattle Seahawks. Home teams in the playoff do very well, by the way. I'm taking Seattle against Washington. I think it is an obvious pick.

[eglickman]

Umm...the title of the thread is:
4 game parlay that WILL hit

That sorta sounds like a guarentee to me.

Or should the title of the thread been:
4 game parlay that I think it's a strong play

Well...at least you didn't call it a LOCK or is WILL HIT pretty much the same thing as a LOCK???

Either way...good luck with your play. My personal opinion, FWIW, is that I doubt that both road teams will win in the NFL. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both difficult places to play in January.

Thanks Tchocky, crazyl, heineken, and minet123. Doc JS, I don't mean any disrespect, but as a responsible better, you should already know that there is no such thing as a guarantee. Just assume when someone throws around the word "lock" or "it will hit" it expresses their strong confidence in the pick. And I don't get what it means to say Seattle and Pittsburgh are "difficult places to play in January." I stand by my picks.

Regardless louis, the Redskins HAVE been hot lately. Did you see them against the Vikings? They were huge underdogs, and they won outright easily. They're fighting with all of their hearts and are finally playing as one unit. It's a very talented squad; in fact the most expensive in the league. Regardless of where the game is played, the Redskins and Jaguars should win.

Anyway, Kentucky won today so I covered the first game so far. Florida vs. Michigan is tomorrow.

[eglickman]

By the way, Hasselbeck's health is being questioned.

Quote from http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nfl/features/briefingroom

"Hasselbeck injured his right wrist after falling in the second quarter Sunday at Atlanta, but X-rays came back negative, according to the Seattle Times."

"Even in the absence of structural damage, Hasselbeck could have trouble gripping, following through or putting his usual zip on the ball. Backup QB Seneca Wallace's dynamic ability and an opening-round home game could help against Washington, but this injury suddenly puts Seattle's playoff hopes in doubt."

[astro61200]

Dont see the Skins beating the Seahawks.. I also laughed a bit when you compared Moss/Collins to Moss/Brady

The fact is that they beat the Vikings, yes, but the Vikings werent that great anyway, their QB is terrible and if you can stop the run you can stop the Vikings... not to mention they have the worst pass defense in the NFL

The Skins were 4-4 on the road, Seattle 7-1 at home... Seattle outscored opponents 27-14 at home, Wasington was outscored 19-22 on the road

Seattle is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, while Washington is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games... teams rarely will win ATS 5 weeks in a row, another reason I like Seattle

Washington may keep it close for a bit but I'll be siding with the Seahawks in this one

Good luck tho

[eglickman]

True, but forget these trends, they are meaningless in this game.

The Seahawks have become a one dimensional team. They rely on the pass to do it all for them. Shaun Alexander wasn't a factor against the Redskins last time, and he's even less of a factor now. They clearly are weaker than the team that went to the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.

The Seahawks have no WR that scares anybody and the Redskins secondary matches up WELL against their WR's. If the Redskins can get to Hasselbeck and rough him up, he'll make mistakes. He has never handled adversity that well and his weaknesses are hidden because he plays in the weakest division in football. Not to mention he may be injured.

[astro61200]

ATS win 5 weeks in a row is a very big trend... almost always you will see the line move the wrong way, ie public is leaning greatly on one side and it moves the other way...

Everyone is high on the Redskins because they've beat a mediocre Vikings team, the Cowboys' backups, the below .500 Bears, and the Giants at home, where they went 3-5

Teams rarely go into Seattle and come away with a W, they are 33-7 at home since 2003, a win percentage of 83%

[eglickman]

Don't write off the Redskins, my friend. The Redskins aren't 9-7 right now, and the Cowboys aren't 33-7 since 2003. The Redskins right now are a different team than they were earlier this season and in past seasons. The same goes with Seattle, but that's not a good thing. The way I look at it is they are both 0-0. I know Seattle fans will be loud, but expect their voices to die down after a few series. I know such was the case for Minnesota and New York fans. Washington is the play.

I also forgot to mention the Redskins played one of the three most difficult schedules in the NFL in 2007. Seattle has had a much easier schedule.

[astro61200]

Don't write off the Redskins, my friend. The Redskins aren't 9-7 right now, and the Cowboys aren't 33-7 since 2003. The Redskins right now are a different team than they were earlier this season and in past seasons. The same goes with Seattle, but that's not a good thing. The way I look at it is they are both 0-0. I know Seattle fans will be loud, but expect their voices to die down after a few series. I know such was the case for Minnesota and New York fans. Washington is the play.

I also forgot to mention the Redskins played one of the three most difficult schedules in the NFL in 2007. Seattle has had a much easier schedule.

I assume you mean the Seahawks arent 33-7 since 2003...

But I dont get what you are saying... the Redskins are 9-7... the Seahawks are 33-7 at home since 2003... they were 7-1 at home this season, their stadium is one of the loudest in the NFL, maybe only behind Arrowhead... Its the playoffs, the fans arent going to sit down and be quiet after a few series... maybe if the Redskins are up 21-0 they will, thats about it

Seattle is much louder than Giants stadium, and much MUCH louder than the Metrodome

Sorry I think the Seahawks can make the NFC championship game, dont see them having much of a problem against the Redskins

[astro61200]

Not to mention that the public loves the Redskins, which is another warning sign for me

[eglickman]

Yes, typo, I meant the Seahawks. The point I'm trying to make is that these teams' records won't necessarily impact how they play this weekend. Momentum has changed for both teams. I don't think the fans will be an issue for Washington. Collins was calm under pressure at Minnesota and New York. Also, who have the Seahawks played this year? They've had one or two hard games, but many were cupcakes. They have Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis in their division. Do you think they would've fared the same playing Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia each twice? They've also played mediocre teams like Cincinatti, Chicago, Carolina, Baltimore, and Atlanta. I would say their hardest games were against Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans, two of which they got wrecked in. I would even dare to put forward the notion that the Seahawks have had the easiest schedule in the league this year. Go look at who Washington has played.

Relying on the pass won't be enough for Seattle to win this game. Their one-dimensional nature will be exposed this weekend.

[eglickman]

Also a 70% chance of rain in Seattle this Saturday. Could be harder for the Seahawks to throw against the Redskins pass defense.

[astro61200]

Yes, typo, I meant the Seahawks. The point I'm trying to make is that these teams' records won't necessarily impact how they play this weekend. Momentum has changed for both teams. I don't think the fans will be an issue for Washington. Collins was calm under pressure at Minnesota and New York. Also, who have the Seahawks played this year? They've had one or two hard games, but many were cupcakes. They have Arizona, San Francisco, and St. Louis in their division. Do you think they would've fared the same playing Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia each twice? They've also played mediocre teams like Cincinatti, Chicago, Carolina, Baltimore, and Atlanta. I would say their hardest games were against Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans, two of which they got wrecked in. I would even dare to put forward the notion that the Seahawks have had the easiest schedule in the league this year. Go look at who Washington has played.

Relying on the pass won't be enough for Seattle to win this game. Their one-dimensional nature will be exposed this weekend.

Washington def Miami, 16-13 in OT
Washington def NY Jets, 23-20 in OT
Buffalo def Washington, in Washington, 17-16

Sorry those are 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, I dont care what the Bills record is they are terrible... Washington had problems with them

Washington's best win, of teams using their starters, was in New York... they beat one playoff team the entire season, excluding Week 17 since Dallas didnt even use their starters

Seattle beat 1 playoff team aswell... so the schedules dont seem that much different really... beat up on the bad teams

How do I think they would fare with the Redskins schedule? Well they already beat Philly once, in Philly, so I'd reasonably assume they'd beat them again in Seattle, 2-0, the Giants are awful at home so I could expect a Seahawk W there, couldnt see them going into Seattle and winning, 4-0, Dallas is solid and I doubt the Seahawks would win against them in Dallas, 4-1, but if they played in Seattle and rested their starters, as was the case with the Redskins, they'd also win that game, 5-1

As I said, good luck with the parlay... I'll be on the Seahawks minus the points.. especially since the public keeps lowering the line for me... tho gotta make sure I get it in before the smart money comes in and pushes it back up

[eglickman]

Man you're totally wrong. You're not getting my argument at all. All three of those games were before the Redskin's started playing Collins and had a great momentum shift. The Bills game should've been won, but a poor, unusual, call by Gibbs gave the Bills a 15 yard penalty, putting them into field goal range in the closing seconds. The Redskins have been cliquing so much better since that game. Aside from playing Dallas, Philadelphia, and New York in the division, the Redskins also had games against the Packers, Patriots, and Buccaneers. They had few cupcake games; teams like the Lions, Bills, Bears, and Vikings are not playoff teams, but are still very competitive teams. All of their losses, excluding to the Patriots, were within a touchdown (within 8 for eagles actually) and could've easily gone the other way, and in many cases should've. And there's no way you can predict how the Seahawks would do against Dallas, Philadelphia, and New York. There's no way they'd go 5-1 against those teams, but that doesn't matter: the point I was trying to make there is that the Redskins are in a much harder division than the Seahawks are. There's no way the Seahawks cover this game.

This argument will go on for too long, so let's just draw it here. GL.

[astro61200]

Man you're totally wrong ... If you really think they'd go 5-1 against these teams, you are wrong. ... There's no way the Seahawks cover this game.

All of this talk is making me want to double or triple my bet on the Seahawks!

[Doc JS]

Doc JS, I don't mean any disrespect, but as a responsible better, you should already know that there is no such thing as a guarantee.

Yes, I do know that. I'm not the one who titled this thread: 4 game parlay that WILL hit.

Just assume when someone throws around the word "lock" or "it will hit" it expresses their strong confidence in the pick.

No, I asssume that it means they don't know what they're talking about because there is no such thing as a lock.

And I don't get what it means to say Seattle and Pittsburgh are "difficult places to play in January."

It means you should check out their playoff records at home in January. You'll find they both win a LOT of the time.

I stand by my picks.

As you should. I was not trying to talk you out of your picks. And I wish you the best of luck.

[eglickman]

Well I've clarified that I think it's a strong pick. Good luck.

[harsh506]

Lol ITS A LOSS

[eglickman]

That blows! Who knew Michigan's Henne and Arrington would have career high days? What an upset.

[Doc JS]

That blows! Who knew Michigan's Henne and Arrington would have career high days? What an upset.

I, too, was surprised that the Gators lost. But Florida just couldn't slow them down.

If it hadn't been for the Michigan turnovers, it wouldn't have been as close as it was.

Michigan clearly came in on a mission to win Lloyd Carr's last game and they played with a sense of urgency that Florida never matched.