Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

[peeteer]

As usual, good luck kroy

[G's pks]

GL today with your plays.

[bobbyk1133]

Kroy stick with sides. Totals have jumped the shark this year.

[simonk83]

Kroy stick with sides. Totals have jumped the shark this year.

I'm going to have to agree with that. Totals aren't getting us anywhere unfortunately.

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy stick with sides. Totals have jumped the shark this year.

I'm going to have to agree with that. Totals aren't getting us anywhere unfortunately.

Yup I'm finally on board with that, totals just aren't working by logic yet. I'm not going to ignore system totals, but I'm done thinking for myself on them it's just not getting me anywhere. System 2 has been killing overs so I'm going to start paying a little more attention to those, but yeah system 1 should continue to kill on sides this year and I'm going to start riding those a lot more heavily. Looks like a 2-2 day but maybe there will be 0 scoring in the second half for us in the Giants game, that sure would be nice. Worse things in the world than eating a little juice, not at all what we want but we'll get em next week! Hope everyone avoided the totals and rode the sides, good luck with the rest of the day!

[phillybadboy]

you're gettin your record back upkroyrunner nice

[kroyrunner89]

you're gettin your record back upkroyrunner nice

Today didn't help much.

Week 9: 2-2 ATS

Look for more sides than totals in the future weeks

[G's pks]

Today didn't help much.

Week 9: 2-2 ATS

Look for more sides than totals in the future weeks

Mentioned that to you a few weeks ago...GL

[peeteer]

Unfortunately, totals (especially unders) are killing you. BOL next week.

[wquine]

giants game was certainly out of the ordinary. GL next week Kroy.

[phillybadboy]

Kroy stick with sides. Totals have jumped the shark this year.

what does jump the shak mean?

[CatPulp]

what does jump the shak mean?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark

[phillybadboy]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark

read it

[HauntingTheHoly]

The actual jumping of the shark video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDthMGtZKa4

[phillybadboy]

The actual jumping of the shark video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDthMGtZKa4

hes in a leather jacket

[Capybara]

Kroy, I just saw where you are in BTP. Isn't it crazy how different one year can be from the next?!?! You WON the whole thing last year and now are so close to the bottom.... nuts, huh? Well, I can't get out of my own way this season either! Ha ha.

[kroyrunner89]

Kroy, I just saw where you are in BTP. Isn't it crazy how different one year can be from the next?!?! You WON the whole thing last year and now are so close to the bottom.... nuts, huh? Well, I can't get out of my own way this season either! Ha ha.

Haha I know, I think I've missed every single best bet this year. Guess it all evens out in the end, thank god I've managed not to throw away much of my winnings from last year so far! Hope things turn around for the both of us!

[hitman2010]

Good luck Kroy, I always stop by your topic to see your ideas.

[kroyrunner89]

Apologies for short writeups this week, on a bit of a time crunch. Good luck everyone!

• Lions/Bills OVER 45

Hopefully some of you jumped on this pick before the line shot up, however I still think there's significant value here as I think there will be 50+ points in this one. Detroit has been finding ways to put up points all year against some very good defenses, and this week are matched up against the hapless Bills who rank 24th in yards per pass attempt and 30th in yards per rush attempt. The Lions' offense should have no problem exploiting weaknesses the the Bills' defense, and should have themselves another 24+ point game. As for Buffalo, ever since Fitzpatrick came in as the starter for this team the offense has actually moved the ball pretty well. WR Steve Johnson has emerged as the reliable target that the Bills need, and their rushing game ranks 9th in the NFL carrying for 4.3 yards per carry. This bodes poorly for Detroit as they have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the season. Each defense has weaknesses that the other team's offense can exploit, I see a high scoring battle as the Bills do all they can to avoid 0-16 as this may be one of their last winnable games.

• Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Redskins have had a week off to prepare for this game, but it won't do them much good against an Eagles team that is clearly superior in almost every facet of the game. The biggest mismatch working in the Eagles' favor is the rushing game, they rank 2nd in the NFL and match up against the weak Redskin defense, the 4th worst rush defense in the NFL giving up 4.77 yards per carry. McCoy will have no problem finding holes to run through, while Vick will certainly have opportunities to scramble as well. The Washington pass defense is very average, ranking 16th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed, also not a very tough matchup for the 13th ranked Philadelphia pass offense. I think the Eagles' offense can put up 27+ points in this game, which will be more than enough to top the dismal Washington offense. The Redskins are ranked 23rd in yards per pass attempt, a tough matchup for them against the #5 Eagles pass defense, which is allowing 5.5 yards per pass attempt. McNabb is going to struggle and commit at least one turnover, Eagles will take this game by at least a touchdown as they have too much firepower for Washington to handle.

• Tennessee Titans (PK)

Miami made a panic move this week moving Pennington in as their new starting QB, a move that ultimately won't make a difference. The Titans are coming off of their bye week, traditionally Jeff Fischer coached teams have performed well in this spot going 6-3 SU. The new addition of WR Randy Moss will help give the Titans a bit of an explosive passing game, which will definitely be a factor against this 20th ranked Miami pass defense. Tennessee's pass defense has been great all year, ranking 7th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and Miami is going struggle with Pennington in at QB as he's likely to throw a couple bad passes and turn the ball over a couple times. Collins will be starting for the Titans in this game, he certainly has the ability to lead this team to victory, especially as I feel he's less likely to give the game away with turnovers than Young is. Titans should take this game in a solid road victory.


That's it for this week, despite a lot of system picks I'm not a huge fan of a lot of them so I'll go conservative this week. Good luck this week everyone!

[Let Me W1n]

no Stafford for Lions you still think theyll cover?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I caught the Bills/Lions Over 43 +100 earlier this week back on Wednesday Like your 2 other plays also, best of luck buddy!

[bobbyk1133]

Another total? I'm on the same page with PHI. Too many big question marks for me in the TEN/MIA game with Moss/Pennington making their debuts. TEN seems to make sense on paper though...

GL (especially with the total )

[kroyrunner89]

Another total? I'm on the same page with PHI. Too many big question marks for me in the TEN/MIA game with Moss/Pennington making their debuts. TEN seems to make sense on paper though... GL (especially with the total )

Haha I said I was cutting out unders for the time being, overs in my systems have actually been doing quite well. I think this one should work out, good luck tomorrow!

[Cris_from_Europe]

like the Over in Lions/Bills ... BOL Kroy

[thadchr]

Somehow I didn't see this thread until now, but I'm glad to see that I agree with all of your picks, given your excellent record.

[statnerds]

GL Kroy

no way I am looking through 35 pages, so what is the 2010 record? You were ridiculous LY, absolutely killed it.

And allow me to say what a shit card it is this week. Only thing I found was Over in NE/Pit and a lean on Buffalo.

And don't shy away from Totals if you have had success in the past. If you were winning over 200+ plays, don't fret a small variance run dragging that down. If you got an angle, method or formula that works, stick with it. might just be missing one small alteration. Never doubt yourself Kroy, you have proven you can do this.

[Indecent]

Haha I said I was cutting out unders for the time being, overs in my systems have actually been doing quite well. I think this one should work out, good luck tomorrow!

Be careful of following this too much. The overs have been hitting at a really high clip this year, but that's probably just as likely to drop down to 50% for the rest of the year as it is to stay near 60%.

GL this week

[EXhoosier10]

how are things goin today?

[belvedere86]

0-2 fuckkk

[bobbyk1133]

I'll say it again. Totals have jumped the shark this year.

[G's pks]

Kroy very tough year for you...surprised to still see you messing with the totals...better luck next week...

[phillybadboy]

i think you'll turn it aroungd dude

[jedikarl]

nicw winner last night

[Smogs]

Good comeback Kroy, after a bad sunday - always nice to end with a win like Philly

[kroyrunner89]

Haha the thing about me guys is I'm stubborn! I've found success with totals in the past and although it's been very tough so far this year what makes it different from any other year? If I see an edge I've gotta go for it, the second I start to get away from that and lose my confidence that's when we're in serious trouble. The good news is my system has been doing it's usual thing as it's 10-4 since Week 9, the typical week of launch. The bad news is that over that span I'm 3-4 on my picks which means I'm doing a realllly bad job with my official selections. Definitely my worst year yet so far, but I'm not going to quit on this thread no matter how ugly the record gets haha. Here's another total for Thursday night, being from Chicago I have had the misfortune of watching the Bears quite a bit this year so I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on their team. Here's what I'm liking:

• Bears/Dolphins UNDER 40

I’m going to jump back on the horse and try another under this week. While we’ve had little to no success with them so far this year, all I can really do is keep plugging away and not get away from my method. Chicago’s offense has been very tough to watch this year, as their offensive line has been abysmal and very much limited the passing game as a result. Cutler has had a knack for taking sacks at the worst possible times and killing drives, something that certainly is going to happen a bit tonight matched up against Miami’s above average pass defense (11th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 11th in sacks per game). The running game has also been nonexistent for the Bears, as they rank 30th in the NFL with just 3.48 yards per carry. Miami also ranks slightly above average against the run, and I expect to see another game where Matt Forte struggles to find any kind of room to run. While the Bears will certainly struggle to score points, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Dolphins will take control of this game and win it as I expect them to struggle quite a bit on offense as well. The Dolphins will be starting QB Tyler Thigpen against the Bears, who I’d be very surprised to see find the success he did last week against the Titans. The Bears have been playing a very high level of defense, ranking 12th against the pass and 3rd against the run this year. More importantly, they’re the 4th best defense when it comes to scoring efficiency, which is a great matchup against the Dolphins who are 4th worst on offense. Add into the mix that this is a Thursday night game, in which the teams usually play fairly sloppy, and this should stay low scoring game tonight. Good luck everyone!