Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

**bobbyk1133** · 10-17-10, 11:31 PM

Stick to your system Kroy. If it works it will turn around, if it doesn't then you need to find out. Getting gun shy and going through an identity crisis isn't going to change the system. Either you're confident as a capper or you're not. Stuck in between is the black hole of death.

**Ricki Roma** · 10-17-10, 11:46 PM

If all your picks were on a teaser on bodog they would have won...

**HauntingTheHoly** · 10-18-10, 12:09 AM

<-----lost two bodog teasers this week (surely the bears don't lose to seattle at home and Atl doesn't get blown out, right?), and had my worst week of the season at 0-4-1.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 10-18-10, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Didn't really understand your picks this week. Double digit spread is always playing with fire, and what in the PHI/ATL game indicated an under? I liked the BAL pick but not at +2.5. Could have gotten it all week at +3 and late in the week if you shopped around or bought the half point.

What in your system is giving you an edge? All your writeups included basic rankings the whole world already knows. Might want to look into DVOA and other stats that aren't from CBSsports.com.

Twat DVOA is?

**bobbyk1133** · 10-18-10, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by HauntingTheHoly

<-----lost two bodog teasers this week (surely the bears don't lose to seattle at home and Atl doesn't get blown out, right?), and had my worst week of the season at 0-4-1.

I had CHI capped at -2.5 so I wasn't completely surprised. I didn't play it because I don't trust SEA on the road though. CHI is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. I missed on ATL too. They looked like a solid dog pick, but give PHI credit for the win.

Originally posted by HauntingTheHoly

Twat DVOA is?

DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent.

Basically it's advanced statistical analysis. Generic stats only tell half the story and shouldn't be used exclusively when evaluating a matchup. I'm not saying something like DVOA should be used exclusively either, but the more info the better if stats are your thing. Another good example is team sacks. Looking at how many sacks a team produces/gives up per game is only partial information. If you look at those stats along with QB hurries/hits you'll get a much better idea of that category.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 10-18-10, 01:08 AM

@bobbyk

Yeah man, I just needed Chi to win the game, they were half a teaser and lost it for me. Then a separate teaser I had Atlanta +9.5 - felt damn good about that one but just goes to show how much God hates me. =( Hahaha!

Thanks for the info on DVOA, that sounds very interesting. I'll have to look into it before next week. Any good starting places you care to point out?

**bobbyk1133** · 10-18-10, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by HauntingTheHoly

@bobbyk Yeah man, I just needed Chi to win the game, they were half a teaser and lost it for me. Then a separate teaser I had Atlanta +9.5 - felt damn good about that one but just goes to show how much God hates me. =( Hahaha! Thanks for the info on DVOA, that sounds very interesting. I'll have to look into it before next week. Any good starting places you care to point out?

Football Outsiders.

**stuiees** · 10-18-10, 01:34 AM

Another disappointing sunday that could have easily gone our way. GL going forward.

**peeteer** · 10-18-10, 01:43 AM

..tough week...Good luck in the future.

**GoCougs!** · 10-18-10, 03:56 PM

Wow. I've been away for a bit and noticed things haven't gotten much better around here. I am a firm believer in positive vibes, as are "most" of the people around here.
Best of luck Kroy and all the other believers. Things will turn around.

**wquine** · 10-18-10, 05:44 PM

i value what kroy puts on the table, simple as that.

**phillybadboy** · 10-20-10, 01:26 PM

keep at it Kroyrunner,lookin forward to your plays, 11 more weeks to turn it around

**Ca$hfloW** · 10-20-10, 01:47 PM

BOL kroy I hope your turn it around

**n1co35** · 10-20-10, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

First and foremost all the credit in the world to SSK for extending his lead on me yet again this week. Congrats sir, however you can quit calling for me to give up because I'm going to see this through to the end. I'll be back either later tonight or tomorrow to address the poor results so far, sorry to all the unfortunate tailers so far

keep at it kroy, i know you will turn this around.
BOL next week.

**kroyrunner89** · 10-20-10, 10:28 PM

Thanks to all for the encouragement! Looking forward to redemption! Still plenty of time to make this season a success

**dvb02** · 10-20-10, 11:21 PM

Keep at it Kroy. It will turn around for you.

**EXhoosier10** · 10-21-10, 09:25 AM

you got it goin for ya kroy

**A's Fan** · 10-21-10, 02:41 PM

Good luck this week kroy!

**simonk83** · 10-21-10, 11:33 PM

Good luck mate

**Jakoby87** · 10-22-10, 01:49 AM

Gl Kroy ready for you to go on a huge RUN!!!

**ssk13809** · 10-22-10, 11:14 AM

I have to step it up too. 4-0 isn't good enough. My goal is to mathematically win the contest by Week 13 so Kroy can give me the 300 points early.

**Timmay** · 10-22-10, 02:51 PM

When do you post up your pics Kroy?

**simonk83** · 10-22-10, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Timmay

When do you post up your pics Kroy?

Sometime in the next 12 hours or so I believe.

**phillybadboy** · 10-22-10, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

I have to step it up too. 4-0 isn't good enough. My goal is to mathematically win the contest by Week 13 so Kroy can give me the 300 points early.

**simonk83** · 10-23-10, 04:08 AM

Let's get it done this week Kroy. Looking forward to your thoughts

**kroyrunner89** · 10-23-10, 07:29 PM

Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Steelers/Dolphins UNDER 41

The Steelers finally got starting QB Ben Roethlisberger back last week against the Browns, and while it took him a little while to get going he ultimately led the squad to a 28-10 victory. Meanwhile, the Dolphins return home coming off of a 23-20 win over a banged up Packers squad. At this point of the season I don’t have to tell any of you how good Pittsburgh’s defense is. They’re ranked 8th against the pass, 1st against the run, and are allowing just 12 points per game. Miami’s offense has been less than stellar so far this year. While the passing numbers are average with Henne throwing for 6.24 yards per pass attempt, he rarely attempts a pass of 20+ yards and the offense lacks explosiveness as a result. The Dolphins have struggled running the ball so far as Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have combined for just 3.91 yards per carry, 22nd in the NFL. I could see Marshall coming away with a touchdown in this game as the Steelers’ secondary is their weakest point, but I really can’t see the Dolphins mustering over 13 points in this game as their running game will struggle to get going. Furthermore, Henne has struggled with turnovers recently, throwing five interceptions over his last three games (although three of these came against the Patriots). Pittsburgh has 8 interceptions through five games, and I love their chances at coming away with one or two turnovers in this contest. On the offensive side of the ball, Roethlisberger has shown the ability to take care of the ball. Last season he threw just 12 interceptions all year, and threw for 257 yards on 27 attempts last week with three touchdowns to one interception. Granted, Miami’s defense is better than the Cleveland defense he threw all over last week. However, Miami’s secondary does struggle at times, particularly covering the tight end. Heath Miller should see some targets this week, and I like WR Mike Wallace’s chances at catching a long pass as well. Miami’s 12th ranked pass defense will slow the Steelers, but not enough for them to win this game. I predict a 20-13 Pittsburgh victory.

Carolina Panthers +3

I have to say, I absolutely love the Panthers in this spot. I’ve finally come to terms with a simple fact, the 49ers are not a good football team. The Panthers return QB Matt Moore to the starting lineup, a move I believe is absolutely the right one as QB Jimmy Clausen is nowhere near ready to play at the professional level. Along with Moore’s return to the lineup, the importance of the return of WR Steve Smith can not be emphasized enough. The Panthers are simply a different team with Smith in the lineup, and since last season Moore has looked to him often and he’s typically scored at least once per game. Smith’s presence also helps give the running game a little more room, RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart should finally get going and have productive games on the ground. The 49ers offense has struggled all year, with their struggles last week against a poor Oakland defense especially disturbing. Carolina’s defense has actually been pretty good, ranking 16th against the pass and 3rd against the run. The Panthers should be able to limit RB Frank Gore and put the pressure on QB Alex Smith, forcing a couple turnovers in the process. This is a great spot for the Panthers to get their first win of the season, I see them doing it as they take this game outright.

I’m going to stop there for the week, good luck everyone!

**simonk83** · 10-23-10, 07:34 PM

On it, thanks mate. BOL to us this week!

**bobbyk1133** · 10-23-10, 07:42 PM

That PIT/MIA game is an interesting one. I have the game at a PK without factoring in Ben's return. So is he worth at least a FG? I think so but this game still makes me nervous. They will probably win by 20 and I'll be kicking myself.

Love CAR in that spot too. They are one of the few home dogs this week and it's good to see you accepted SF is crap because 71% of ppl don't agree with us. SF is also traveling to the east coast playing the 1pm game. History doesn't favor them with that trend.

**gtboy** · 10-23-10, 08:20 PM

gl this wk kroy, tailing the pits/mia picks. thanks for ur effort.

**C-Gold** · 10-23-10, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Football Outsiders.

Good idea but those guys are horrible with their picks. They try and peddle their cheesy books and databank but their predictions suck. Last year they picked the Bears to win it all.... They said the Rams were an underrated 8-8 team... It's like one of those NFL get your story straight commercials.

They constantly made fun of Rex Ryan, and Favre etc. They are a bunch of arrogant New England pricks that aren't 1/8th as good as they think they are. Don't even bother clicking on their site. It's a bunch of nerds that don't know anything about football or gambling. Trap game, what's that? I hate those fockers, they just peddle product.

**bobbyk1133** · 10-23-10, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

Good idea but those guys are horrible with their picks. They try and peddle their cheesy books and databank but their predictions suck. Last year they picked the Bears to win it all.... They said the Rams were an underrated 8-8 team... It's like one of those NFL get your story straight commercials. They constantly made fun of Rex Ryan, and Favre etc. They are a bunch of arrogant New England pricks that aren't 1/8th as good as they think they are. Don't even bother clicking on their site. It's a bunch of nerds that don't know anything about football or gambling. Trap game, what's that? I hate those fockers, they just peddle product.

I wasn't endorsing the site as a whole. The conversation was about statistics but maybe you are still learning how to read.

**TO9** · 10-23-10, 09:02 PM

GL this week

**Totolover1409** · 10-23-10, 11:53 PM

Love the panthers here too. Took em ML

**ssk13809** · 10-24-10, 12:52 AM

GL Kroy. You definitely need it.

**udlock4life** · 10-24-10, 12:55 AM

bol