Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

**phillybadboy** · 10-11-10, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by simonk83

They're both 4-11-0.

cool SSK lied he said he was in the lead, i'm interested in the results because of all the smack talk

**simonk83** · 10-11-10, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

cool SSK lied he said he was in the lead, i'm interested in the results because of all the smack talk

He got lucky with his units so he's slightly ahead there. He's the only one giving out the smack talk though.

**phillybadboy** · 10-11-10, 08:08 PM

OKaY i'm gona put the update here for track keeping SSK 4-11-0, and Kroy 4-11-0 in the contest after five weeks

**kroyrunner89** · 10-11-10, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

Is this like SF vs BUF?

Might be better to lose every week and get the #1 pick for next year.

I like to think of myself as more of a Carolina

**ssk13809** · 10-11-10, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

OKaY i'm gona put the update here for track keeping SSK 4-11-0, and Kroy 4-11-0 in the contest after five weeks

It's not the record it's the units that count. I lead there. And haven't trailed ALL YEAR.

**stuiees** · 10-11-10, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Dan

Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis (hamstring) are each scheduled to start against the Vikings tonight.

Beat writer Rich Cimini guessed that Holmes would only play 30-50 percent of the snaps in his first game off suspension, but it looks like Holmes is going to play significantly more than that. Despite the planned "progression" that OC Brian Schottenheimer mentioned, it's hard to keep a talent like Holmes off the field. He remains a better fantasy option than Braylon Edwards. Revis is expected to stick at left corner and not shadow Randy Moss. Oct. 11 - 11:20 am et
Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

You're right. it looks like they have crow lined up with moss on that first drive

**kroyrunner89** · 10-11-10, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by stuiees

You're right. it looks like they have crow lined up with moss on that first drive

Crow should do a decent job on Moss anyways as Moss is more of a straight line receiver and that's what Crow is best at defending

**bypp** · 10-11-10, 08:40 PM

On the under with you tonight. I was lovin' all that rain before the game. GL!

**kroyrunner89** · 10-11-10, 11:14 PM

Week 5: 2-5 ATS
Overall: 10-14 ATS

See you all next week

**stuiees** · 10-11-10, 11:20 PM

ouch... i meant to hedge my bet by taking the 2h over. stupid dinner took longer than expected.

**MexicanStallion** · 10-11-10, 11:44 PM

Rough week Kroy. Best of luck next week.

**G's pks** · 10-12-10, 08:23 AM

what was the record in here this week? How did it go?

**jedikarl** · 10-12-10, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

what was the record in here this week? How did it go?

terrible he went 2-5 ats ive done a fortune followin kroy he is a decent guy but he has well and truely lost his way this season

**G's pks** · 10-12-10, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by jedikarl

terrible he went 2-5 ats ive done a fortune followin kroy he is a decent guy but he has well and truely lost his way this season

Thanks...

Kroy maybe a good idea to update/show your season record and units lost. Just so everyone is up to date...hopefully you have a good week ahead...

**kroyrunner89** · 10-12-10, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

Thanks... Kroy maybe a good idea to update/show your season record and units lost. Just so everyone is up to date...hopefully you have a good week ahead...

See post #989 lol, win or lose I do my best to keep everyone in the loop as to how things are going. For the season I am down $1633, I've been betting $300 a game

**G's pks** · 10-12-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

See post #989 lol, win or lose I do my best to keep everyone in the loop as to how things are going. For the season I am down $1633, I've been betting $300 a game

Just wondering if you have broke it down by games bet...such as O/U results and so on... You may find an area you should limit... Also have you thought about cutting back to say maybe three games until you turn it around....

**kroyrunner89** · 10-12-10, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

Just wondering if you have broke it down by games bet...such as O/U results and so on... You may find an area you should limit... Also have you thought about cutting back to say maybe three games until you turn it around....

Basically here's how I see it. While we've had a terrible start, I feel like we've been on the right side of a lot of these. This last week could have VERY easily been 5-2 rather than 2-5, Week 4 could have very easily been 3-0 rather than 2-1, I could go on and on but bottom line is we're taking a lot of rough beats this year. As frustrated as I am and as much as I hate to be losing money and losing other people money, I'm not going to let it affect who I am as a capper. Generally, I am very conservative. Last week I thought I saw quite a bit of value and unfortunately a few breaks went against us, trust me we won't be having many weeks with more than 4 plays. This looks like a tougher slate so far this week, so naturally I'll have less picks and hopefully we can get back on the right track.

For this year:
Sides: 4-5 ATS
Totals: 6-9 ATS

Pretty much just overall bad no matter how you break it down, all I can do is just keep plugging away and doing what's worked for me in the past and hope we get back on track

**bobbyk1133** · 10-12-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

Basically here's how I see it. While we've had a terrible start, I feel like we've been on the right side of a lot of these. This last week could have VERY easily been 5-2 rather than 2-5, Week 4 could have very easily been 3-0 rather than 2-1, I could go on and on but bottom line is we're taking a lot of rough beats this year. As frustrated as I am and as much as I hate to be losing money and losing other people money, I'm not going to let it affect who I am as a capper. Generally, I am very conservative. Last week I thought I saw quite a bit of value and unfortunately a few breaks went against us, trust me we won't be having many weeks with more than 4 plays. This looks like a tougher slate so far this week, so naturally I'll have less picks and hopefully we can get back on the right track. For this year: Sides: 4-5 ATS Totals: 6-9 ATS Pretty much just overall bad no matter how you break it down, all I can do is just keep plugging away and doing what's worked for me in the past and hope we get back on track

I would beg to differ that you were on the right side of all your picks this week. I didn't agree with the SD/OAK or PHI/SF unders, but the rest seemed like solid plays. Betting the under for MIN/NY was also playing with fire due to Moss and while I didn't expect two polar opposites halves, I did expect something in between that.

What I absolutely agree with is that the variance has been higher than usual this season. I was on my way to a 9-2 week and lost 4 bets on the last play of 4 games. I have no doubt I was on the right side of all those lines (ARI/NO under, SD teaser, MIN +4.5, GB -2.5) but you can't entirely cap variance. There are a number of factors you can evaluate to limit it, but it is a fact of sports. All you can do is hope you are on the right side of it when it happens or at the very least that it evens out in the long run (which it usually does).

At the end of the day it's only week 5 and there's more than enough time to get back on track. Both squares and sharps have had trouble so far this year, but it won't stay like that all season.

**phillybadboy** · 10-12-10, 05:18 PM

keep at it kroy there are at least 12 weeks left

**Surtainly** · 10-12-10, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

Basically here's how I see it. While we've had a terrible start, I feel like we've been on the right side of a lot of these. This last week could have VERY easily been 5-2 rather than 2-5, Week 4 could have very easily been 3-0 rather than 2-1, I could go on and on but bottom line is we're taking a lot of rough beats this year. As frustrated as I am and as much as I hate to be losing money and losing other people money, I'm not going to let it affect who I am as a capper. Generally, I am very conservative. Last week I thought I saw quite a bit of value and unfortunately a few breaks went against us, trust me we won't be having many weeks with more than 4 plays. This looks like a tougher slate so far this week, so naturally I'll have less picks and hopefully we can get back on the right track.

For this year:
Sides: 4-5 ATS
Totals: 6-9 ATS

Pretty much just overall bad no matter how you break it down, all I can do is just keep plugging away and doing what's worked for me in the past and hope we get back on track

no offense man, but I'm sure in the past there were multiple instances where you were on the right side in similar scenarios... that's gambling. stop trying to justify your losses and just keep it up, things will turn around.

**22dsnyd22** · 10-13-10, 10:06 AM

all good. new week this week. i believe you will be above 53 54% by end of year. which will put you in the Black numbers. Dont let up.

**tonyp0387** · 10-13-10, 12:01 PM

[quote=kroyrunner89;6834115]Basically here's how I see it. While we've had a terrible start, I feel like we've been on the right side of a lot of these. This last week could have VERY easily been 5-2 rather than 2-5, Week 4 could have very easily been 3-0 rather than 2-1, I could go on and on but bottom line is we're taking a lot of rough beats this year. As frustrated as I am and as much as I hate to be losing money and losing other people money, I'm not going to let it affect who I am as a capper. Generally, I am very conservative. Last week I thought I saw quite a bit of value and unfortunately a few breaks went against us, trust me we won't be having many weeks with more than 4 plays. This looks like a tougher slate so far this week, so naturally I'll have less picks and hopefully we can get back on the right track.

For this year:
Sides: 4-5 ATS
Totals: 6-9 ATS

Pretty much just overall bad no matter how you break it down, all I can do is just keep plugging away and doing what's worked for me in the past and hope we get back on track[/quote|

How about Buff and Car i guess thats not lucky when you hit that under, you could also have went 1-6. You cant say very easily have been because it works both ways its called gambiling for a reason.

**simonk83** · 10-14-10, 06:57 AM

Let's gettem this week mate

**simonk83** · 10-15-10, 04:33 PM

Almost there

**jedikarl** · 10-15-10, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by simonk83

Almost there

where.... bankruptcy

**phillybadboy** · 10-16-10, 04:11 AM

Originally posted by jedikarl

where.... bankruptcy

**wquine** · 10-16-10, 07:40 AM

kroy, keep it going man, ignore the haters. BOL!

**cowboyfan08** · 10-16-10, 08:26 AM

Kroy bol on plays this weekend!!!unloading big on pitt,balt and atl!!!!new week.

**edge444** · 10-16-10, 08:30 AM

I've got to tell you Kroy I think this is a very hard week to try and get back on track. The only play I could find was the Packers and that line has gone from -5 to -3 so what do I know. So I think as usual I will leave it to you.

BOL

**simonk83** · 10-16-10, 04:09 PM

Mmm, it is a bit tough today...

**hitman2010** · 10-16-10, 04:15 PM

**MexicanStallion** · 10-16-10, 05:54 PM

Interested to see what you have for Sunday. Best of luck.

**kroyrunner89** · 10-16-10, 06:32 PM

Let’s get right to it, fact of the matter is we’re sitting at 10-14 ATS which is well below what I consider an acceptable standard. Unfortunately this will be another week of short writeups as I’m on a bit of a time crunch. Week 6 looks like a tough one, but hopefully this is where we turn things around for good this season. Here’s what I’m liking:

Baltimore Ravens +2.5
Ravens/Patriots OVER 44.5

Regardless of how well their special teams performed in Miami, that doesn’t change the fact that this New England defense is terrible. They rank 28th against the pass and 23rd against the run, which certainly bodes well for a Baltimore offense that is beginning to find its stride. The Ravens ground game will be a big part of this contest, as Ray Rice is finally starting to run well, and the struggling New England secondary will be no match for the Ravens’ wide receivers. Look for improved play out of Flacco as the Ravens’ offense has no problem putting points on the board. New England has been a very effective pass offense so far this year, but find themselves tested this week as they adjust to life without Randy Moss and face Baltimore’s 5th ranked pass defense. While statistically Baltimore has looked good so far, Brady still has plenty of weapons to attack what is still a suspect secondary, 20 points should be well within reach for the Patriots. In the end the Patriots won’t be able to muster enough offense though, and their shotty defense will cost them a chance at winning this game.

New York Giants -10

The Giants are starting to find their stride, as evidenced by their domination of the Texans and Bears last past two weeks. They face a Detroit team this week that is somehow the #1 scoring team in the NFC, despite being the 9th worst passing team and 7th worst rushing team in the NFL. The Giants’ defense has looked very good so far this year, ranking #1 against the pass and #7 against the run, which will make life very difficult on Shaun Hill and the Detroit offense. If WR Calvin Johnson is unable to go, look for Detroit to possibly score in the single digits in this one. The New York offense should be able to do more than enough to cover this spread, as they face the 9th worst pass defense and 5th worst rush defense in the league, look for a steady dose of Ahmad Bradshaw and another Hakeem Nicks touchdown this week as the Giants cruise to a blowout win in this one.

Eagles/Falcons UNDER 42.5

While Atlanta is a 4-1 team, statistically they’ve been average in every sense of the word. Their pass and rush games rank 17th and 18th respectively, and their pass and rush defense each rank 16th. So far, I haven’t seen a lot out of them that impresses me. This week, they’re matched up against an Eagles defense that’s ranked 6th against the pass and 18th against the run. We’ll be seeing a healthy dose of the Atlanta running backs this week, but in the passing game I don’t think Matt Ryan will be able to generate a ton of offense. The Eagles benefited from facing a very below average San Fransisco defense last week, and this week against the Falcons I expect to see their offensive line struggle a bit more, which will result in Kolb’s numbers taking a dive from where they were at last week. Look for a low scoring game in this one.

Chargers/Rams UNDER 45

I’m still scratching my head over this line a bit as I don’t understand how this line is so high. The Chargers have been a great passing offense so far, but have played well below average opponents in almost every game. This week, they face the Rams, a slightly above average team ranked 12th against the pass. The Rams’ defense has definitely shown signs of improvement this year, and despite getting blown out by Detroit last week I still have faith in the unit. They can definitely limit the Chargers to 24 points or less. As for the Rams’ offense, I don’t see how they score many points in this game at all. Sure, San Diego has been shooting themselves in the foot, but I refuse to believe that this team can continue to make such brutal mistakes week after week on the road. They surrendered 19 points last week to the Raiders on stupid plays (two blocked punts, fumble returned for a td), this is not something that will happen week to week. The Chargers rank #2 against the pass and #9 against the run, a great matchup against the Rams’ 29th ranked pass offense and 25th ranked rushing offense. This total should stay well under and whether or not San Diego covers will come down to how effective their offense can be.

That’s all for this week, hopefully things get back to the winning ways we’re used to. Good luck everyone!

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 10-16-10, 06:56 PM

Good luck this week Kroy

**EXhoosier10** · 10-16-10, 07:43 PM

good luck kroy. im big on balt this week