Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)

**jhack704** · 10-10-10, 03:12 PM

2-1 so far, i cant complain cuz i cant believe the chi car under won even tho tb just fuked us

**belvedere86** · 10-10-10, 03:14 PM

2-1 so far. very nice. but the tampa game pisses me off

**belvedere86** · 10-10-10, 03:14 PM

yea true. thought the bears game was already over after the first quarter

**phillybadboy** · 10-10-10, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

i think that bucs bengals game will go OVER 38 gl

tbcinci 38 OVER, hows that contest goin?

**tonyp0387** · 10-10-10, 06:48 PM

Kroy do you think your the only person in the world that can hit 67%? You are aware there is not a person in the world that averages over 60 % ats on earth. You had a great year but no track record . Its great you had a fantastic year last year but hitting over 60% year after year is impossible. A more realistic number would be 55% over a 500 game span. BOL to you in the future but when you bust out numbers like 67% its just laughable. You can't be taken seriously when you bust out numbers like that.

**jhack704** · 10-10-10, 06:49 PM

good thing i hedges oak +6.5 at halftime, to cover that sd lost, sucks the sd and under blew your profit today

**stuiees** · 10-10-10, 07:12 PM

damn, that sd oak game could have gone better...

**22dsnyd22** · 10-10-10, 07:17 PM

ouch

**stuiees** · 10-10-10, 10:23 PM

my god... another poor week. hope you can get it together kroy gl to you

**kroyrunner89** · 10-11-10, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

Kroy do you think your the only person in the world that can hit 67%? You are aware there is not a person in the world that averages over 60 % ats on earth. You had a great year but no track record . Its great you had a fantastic year last year but hitting over 60% year after year is impossible. A more realistic number would be 55% over a 500 game span. BOL to you in the future but when you bust out numbers like 67% its just laughable. You can't be taken seriously when you bust out numbers like that.

When I throw 67% out there that's a season long goal, you're right that will never happen over a multiple season span for anyone. My goal for multi year average is 60%.

Originally posted by stuiees

my god... another poor week. hope you can get it together kroy gl to you

Shaking my head after another bad one, all I can really say is ouch. We had to deal with 19 flukey points in the SD-Oak game, there was simply no overcoming the fact that they all went to Oakland. Could have easily been a 4-2 day but 2-4 is the reality and we'll have to deal with that unfortunately, believe me my bankroll is hurting after how this season has started. I'm going to have a play tomorrow night, not forcing anything or chasing I've been on it all week and now that I know the injury situation for the Jets a little better I'm ready to roll with it. I've been saying this far too much lately but hopefully tomorrow is the beginning of us finally turning things around

**kroyrunner89** · 10-11-10, 12:43 AM

My Sunday picks were disappointing once again this week as I struggled to a 2-4 ATS record. Again, it felt like things could have broken very differently for us in a couple of those and it could have been a 4-2 day, but unfortunately another losing week is the reality we must deal with as all that matters is the actual final score. On the bright side, I have a Monday night pick that I think has an outstanding chance of cashing for us and will hopefully mark a turning point for our very slow start this season. I assure you I'll continue working as hard towards these picks, and I still remain confident that we'll be on the right side of things by the end of the season. We aren't even 1/4 of the way through the year yet, there's plenty of time to right things and I won't panic and force picks because things aren't breaking our way right now. Here's what I'm liking tomorrow night:

Vikings/Jets UNDER 38

I'm sure some of you are getting sick of the under picks, believe me I am too. However, I have multiple reasons to support this pick. First of all, my totals system loves this pick. Although the system hasn't factored in the Randy Moss trade, it also hasn't factored in the return of Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace for the Jets. In my mind, at worst that's a cancels out the Moss factor, but in reality I think it swings even more of an advantage to the Jets' defense. Things have been terrible for the Minnesota offense so far this year. They've struggled protecting Favre, and while Peterson has good numbers on the surface the majority of it came against a shotty Detroit defense. The Jets rank 3rd against the run so far this season, and with Pace returning to the lineup that will only make them stronger. While Randy Moss may eventually offer a boost to Favre and the passing game, with Revis blanketing him all game it'll almost be like he isn't there. For the Jets' offense, as I've said before it all starts with the run for them. The Vikings are currently the #8 rush defense in the NFL, which will seriously limit what the Jets can do if they can't establish the run. While Sanchez has had a terrific start to the season and we could believe that the Jets will do a good job moving the ball through the air, let's remember that the bulk of his numbers have come against the Patriots, Dolphins, and Bills, three pass defenses that are not very good at all. The Minnesota defense will offer Sanchez a real test this weekend, and despite the return of WR Santonio Holmes to the team I think we're going to see more modest numbers out of Sanchez. This is going to be a hard fought defensive battle, I like this total to go under by a touchdown.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

**Smogs** · 10-11-10, 01:02 AM

Good luck to us followers tonight, let's see it happen

**bobbyk1133** · 10-11-10, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

Although the system hasn't factored in the Randy Moss trade, it also hasn't factored in the return of Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace for the Jets. In my mind, at worst that's a cancels out the Moss factor, but in reality I think it swings even more of an advantage to the Jets' defense. Things have been terrible for the Minnesota offense so far this year. They've struggled protecting Favre, and while Peterson has good numbers on the surface the majority of it came against a shotty Detroit defense. The Jets rank 3rd against the run so far this season, and with Pace returning to the lineup that will only make them stronger. While Randy Moss may eventually offer a boost to Favre and the passing game, with Revis blanketing him all game it'll almost be like he isn't there. For the Jets' offense, as I've said before it all starts with the run for them.

The biggest benefit of the Moss trade will be AP. Those wanting to stack 8 in the box will think twice leaving Moss on an island. It will also benefit Harvin in the same way it benefited Welker. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits some big plays with soft coverage underneath. If Revis covers Moss keep in mind he'll be going up and down the field all night so don't be surprised if Revis comes out of this game due to his hamstring. Also consider that Favre will force throws to Moss a number of times. A team that throws down field a lot creates a lot of completions/interceptions/pass interference outcomes. Both teams are also averaging 29 points combined from drives of 60+ yards which is well above the league average.

**stuiees** · 10-11-10, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by bobbyk1133

The biggest benefit of the Moss trade will be AP. Those wanting to stack 8 in the box will think twice leaving Moss on an island. It will also benefit Harvin in the same way it benefited Welker. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits some big plays with soft coverage underneath. If Revis covers Moss keep in mind he'll be going up and down the field all night so don't be surprised if Revis comes out of this game due to his hamstring. Also consider that Favre will force throws to Moss a number of times. A team that throws down field a lot creates a lot of completions/interceptions/pass interference outcomes. Both teams are also averaging 29 points combined from drives of 60+ yards which is well above the league average.

I can almost guarantee the jets will go 1v1 against moss using revis. he can stay with anyone, and yes that includes randy moss... when the jets played the pats, moss caught a nice 1 hander for a td, but that was also the play that revis got injured. ill tail you on this play again kroy and hope for the best. GL to everyone else who wagers.

**canepole** · 10-11-10, 06:30 AM

thanks kroy appreciate your hard work

**DJStroke** · 10-11-10, 07:03 AM

already on the over, but GL everyone!

**opie1988** · 10-11-10, 07:37 AM

Good luck Kroy. Don't worry about yesterday. I took an epic beatdown myself.

**dvb02** · 10-11-10, 07:56 AM

Good luck tonight Kroy!

**wquine** · 10-11-10, 08:11 AM

i feel your pain kroy, took a ML with the chargers because i didn't trust them on the road but they couldn't even win let alone cover. sigh!

well idk about the under here, will have to look into it more, minny's o-line is prob the key here.

**GoCougs!** · 10-11-10, 11:08 AM

Is anybody doing well with NFL the last three weekends? I have been hitting at an all time LOW!

**22dsnyd22** · 10-11-10, 12:10 PM

Kroy I dont doubt your system at all. It seems like with a lot of your losses that you are in fact on the right side. Now going into week 5 I would venture a guess that your system should work even better with more data to use. That being said, This year has been a tougher year all around IMO. I know a lot of gamblers and most all of them had a better year thus far last year than this year. Do you ever think that the way refs are giving teams 160 free yards this year with ticky tack penalties along with more parity in the league would make picking totals way more difficult this year. I myself find it really difficult to play really low totals and sometimes totals period due to this. It seems any given sunday a game could have 14-17 more pts more than expected just due to officiating. I myself hate the way NFL games are being called these days. Anyways I just wanted to know if you had any opinion on this at all. The more i watch football this year the more I want to steer away from totals altogether. BOL going forward KROY.

**peeteer** · 10-11-10, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

I assure you I'll continue working as hard towards these picks, and I still remain confident that we'll be on the right side of things by the end of the season. We aren't even 1/4 of the way through the year yet, there's plenty of time to right things and I won't panic and force picks because things aren't breaking our way right now.

That's right attitude, good luck.

**Dan** · 10-11-10, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by stuiees

I can almost guarantee the jets will go 1v1 against moss using revis. he can stay with anyone, and yes that includes randy moss... when the jets played the pats, moss caught a nice 1 hander for a td, but that was also the play that revis got injured. ill tail you on this play again kroy and hope for the best. GL to everyone else who wagers.

Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis (hamstring) are each scheduled to start against the Vikings tonight.

Beat writer Rich Cimini guessed that Holmes would only play 30-50 percent of the snaps in his first game off suspension, but it looks like Holmes is going to play significantly more than that. Despite the planned "progression" that OC Brian Schottenheimer mentioned, it's hard to keep a talent like Holmes off the field. He remains a better fantasy option than Braylon Edwards. Revis is expected to stick at left corner and not shadow Randy Moss. Oct. 11 - 11:20 am et
Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

**cowboyfan08** · 10-11-10, 03:43 PM

Bol kroy,damn a total been killin on sides got to foolin with totals and got burned!!!!!!!!

**tonyp0387** · 10-11-10, 05:17 PM

That 38 is a bad number. You can get 39 1/2 at a lot of shops right now.

**FlaxMartin** · 10-11-10, 05:33 PM

I hope for a small viks W

**phillybadboy** · 10-11-10, 06:34 PM

anybody have an update on that SK vs KROY contest? thanks

**kroyrunner89** · 10-11-10, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

That 38 is a bad number. You can get 39 1/2 at a lot of shops right now.

Yeah very strange movement with this line, it was 39.5 most of the week, had fallen to 38 when I wrote up the post last night and I was kicking myself for waiting on it and losing value, then it went back up throughout today despite in-climate weather. GL to all no matter what number you got it at

**tonyp0387** · 10-11-10, 06:52 PM

I doubt it matters this game either stays way under or flys over.

**bobbyk1133** · 10-11-10, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

I doubt it matters this game either stays way under or flys over.

Nice analysis.

I feel so much better about my bet.

**phillybadboy** · 10-11-10, 07:57 PM

sorry to bother, but does anyone have an update on that SK vs Kroy contest?

**ssk13809** · 10-11-10, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

sorry to bother, but does anyone have an update on that SK vs Kroy contest?

The usual

SSK wins another week. Extends his lead. Kroy is basically buried and never had or will have a lead. He might as well give me 300 points right now. That's what he gets for challenging an expert like me.

**bobbyk1133** · 10-11-10, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

The usual SSK wins another week. Extends his lead. Kroy is basically buried and never had or will have a lead. He might as well give me 300 points right now. That's what he gets for challenging an expert like me.

Is this like SF vs BUF?

Might be better to lose every week and get the #1 pick for next year.

**simonk83** · 10-11-10, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

sorry to bother, but does anyone have an update on that SK vs Kroy contest?

They're both 4-11-0.

**phillybadboy** · 10-11-10, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by ssk13809

The usual SSK wins another week. Extends his lead. Kroy is basically buried and never had or will have a lead. He might as well give me 300 points right now. That's what he gets for challenging an expert like me.

cool, nice work, but what is the record for both of you guys?