Best Bet For Sunday

**jayz00** · 12-18-07, 11:51 PM

beg to differ

but GL man

**MJFtheGenius** · 12-19-07, 12:00 AM

I say Dallas is the best bet, I expect a blowout.

**Razz** · 12-19-07, 12:16 AM

Amazing how in week 2 everyone said the Bengals -6.5 at the Browns was a stone cold lock and now no one expects them to be able to beat the Browns at home.

**SBR Lou** · 12-19-07, 12:23 AM

Browns 1st half for me...

Good luck Hamburglar!

**jackpot269** · 12-19-07, 10:41 AM

browns small 4 me

**The Seer** · 12-19-07, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by hamburglar628

Browns -3.

There is no way the Browns will lose this game to the Bengals. They will win the game, the worse anyone could do is break even. The Bengals defense is horrible, at its not like the Cincy offense is explosive like it used to be. BROWNS -3!

That is a typical public view on this game and why the books set the lines the way they do.

**KCRams** · 12-19-07, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

That is a typical public view on this game and why the books set the lines the way they do.

Exactly...I see a CIN win

**Furt** · 12-19-07, 04:28 PM

why?

**KCRams** · 12-19-07, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Furt

why?

Public opinion has a lot to do with how sportsbooks shade their lines. Sportsbooks aren't a group of cappers demanding, for example, that "CLE will win by 3 or more pts and I dare you to bet against me". They are trying to even up both sides of the line in order to make as much money as possible. Obviously there is more to handicapping than just that one aspect alone, but it does carry a lot of weight. I think CLE barely wins vs average teams and is a bit overrated in the public eye and has a subpar defense. They play in CIN where I think the Bengals have the offensive weapons that are overdue and they know the Browns well. A high scoring game would not surprise me as the Bengals D is subpar as well. I see the home team winning.

**hamburglar628** · 12-19-07, 07:08 PM

A cincy win? Browns are controlling their own playoff spot right now. I like the browns offense better than the bengals right now. Unlike the bengals, the browns can control the clock, run the ball all game if they wanted to, and cincy's defense is horrible. I love this game. Browns -3. I've been with the browns the last two weeks (both covering against the jets and bills)

**Hitek** · 12-19-07, 09:16 PM

Dallas, Cincy, Pitts, are the best bets this week!!!! I also like the over on the Dallas and Pitts game...

**The Seer** · 12-20-07, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by hamburglar628

and cincy's defense is horrible. I love this game. Browns -3. I've been with the browns the last two weeks (both covering against the jets and bills)

The Browns defense is just as bad if not worse. Check their stats. Bengals allow less points per game. Since the browns have been covering lately doesn't mean they will this week. The odds makers will adjust to them eventually.

**tblues2005** · 12-20-07, 12:18 PM

It is a big rival game just like the Eagles and Cowboys, I would stay away from this game because of that.

**The Seer** · 12-20-07, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by Hitek

Dallas, Cincy, Pitts, are the best bets this week!!!! I also like the over on the Dallas and Pitts game...

The best bet is that chick in your avatar. Hot.

**outdrawed** · 12-20-07, 01:30 PM

The Seer nailed this. Public all over the Browns. Go the other way. Betting sports is ezfosheezy

**outdrawed** · 12-20-07, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by hamburglar628

A cincy win? Browns are controlling their own playoff spot right now. I like the browns offense better than the bengals right now. Unlike the bengals, the browns can control the clock, run the ball all game if they wanted to, and cincy's defense is horrible. I love this game. Browns -3. I've been with the browns the last two weeks (both covering against the jets and bills)

"Team A has something to play for" has to be one of the top 5 worst arguments in sports betting. Cincy's defense is similar to Cleveland's defense, and continuing to bet a team because they covered the spread two weeks in a row has to be one of the other top 5 worst arguments in sports betting.

**hamburglar628** · 12-20-07, 05:33 PM

So you think the Browns will lose a rival game, a chance of a playoff berth, after coming off of two wins? Bengals are awful this year. Betting against the public for your main reason for the Bengals to win is horrible. Good Luck betting the bengals. I love the browns -3 once again.

**Cannonfodder** · 12-20-07, 06:20 PM

At this time browns good bet

When I'm writing this on pinnacle you get +120.

I don't understand the faith people have in cinci, people who have backed cinci this year overall have lost money.

+3 for an away team is something to be wary of and I know the arguments stated. Its fair to be paranoid when you see what seems to be good lines.

If you don't like the browns that is not a good reason to bet cinci the smartest thing to do is not bet the game at all.

I wouldn't bet this game heavy but for the price as it stands right now the browns are a smart bet.

**Hitek** · 12-20-07, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

The best bet is that chick in your avatar. Hot.

Thanks for the compliment. The over is looking good on the PITTS game I hope you took that with me.

**hamburglar628** · 12-20-07, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Cannonfodder

When I'm writing this on pinnacle you get +120.

I don't understand the faith people have in cinci, people who have backed cinci this year overall have lost money.

+3 for an away team is something to be wary of and I know the arguments stated. Its fair to be paranoid when you see what seems to be good lines.

If you don't like the browns that is not a good reason to bet cinci the smartest thing to do is not bet the game at all.

I wouldn't bet this game heavy but for the price as it stands right now the browns are a smart bet.

Either bet browns -3 or nothing...the worse you can do is push in this game. How can people constantly love the bengals, they are not as good as they were the past few years.

**The Seer** · 12-20-07, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by Hitek

Thanks for the compliment. The over is looking good on the PITTS game I hope you took that with me.

Got that too.

**hanco21** · 12-21-07, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by hamburglar628

A cincy win? Browns are controlling their own playoff spot right now. I like the browns offense better than the bengals right now. Unlike the bengals, the browns can control the clock, run the ball all game if they wanted to, and cincy's defense is horrible. I love this game. Browns -3. I've been with the browns the last two weeks (both covering against the jets and bills)

Bengals are coming off there worst game of the year. My book just dropped the line to 2.5 and they are daring you to take the Browns. Public is all over Cleveland at about 80 % ratio. I really believe Cincinnati is set for a huge game.

Get Cincy at +3 if you can still get that line.

**patsfan2727** · 12-21-07, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by hanco21

Bengals are coming off there worst game of the year. My book just dropped the line to 2.5 and they are daring you to take the Browns. Public is all over Cleveland at about 80 % ratio. I really believe Cincinnati is set for a huge game.

Get Cincy at +3 if you can still get that line.

Nothing is more annoying than people who base their bets fading the "majority public opinion". last night, 75% of the public was on Pittsburgh. How did that work out for the "Public"?

Oh, and this whole "They are BEGGING you to take the Browns" Dude, I think you are looking far too much into what a -2.5 means after a team's name. All the books do is set the line, then the public changes them based on bets. The only reason it may have moved to 2.5 is because of action, not because the books are trying to force your hand.

The Browns are clearly the better team, the Bengals are a joke who just lost to SF and it wasn't even that clost. Browns were taking it to PITT a few weeks ago away, and should have won the game. Good luck with that CINCY pick. I'll take the team who I think will win, not the one who the public thinks will lose. Browns -3

**hamburglar628** · 12-21-07, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

Nothing is more annoying than people who base their bets fading the "majority public opinion". last night, 75% of the public was on Pittsburgh. How did that work out for the "Public"?

Oh, and this whole "They are BEGGING you to take the Browns" Dude, I think you are looking far too much into what a -2.5 means after a team's name. All the books do is set the line, then the public changes them based on bets. The only reason it may have moved to 2.5 is because of action, not because the books are trying to force your hand.

The Browns are clearly the better team, the Bengals are a joke who just lost to SF and it wasn't even that clost. Browns were taking it to PITT a few weeks ago away, and should have won the game. Good luck with that CINCY pick. I'll take the team who I think will win, not the one who the public thinks will lose. Browns -3

Exactly...Browns in every area are a better team this year than the bengals. Just because their home this game doesn't mean anything. Browns have something to play for, if they win this game they clinch a playoff berth. Why wouldn't you bet the Browns? Answer that.

**masr** · 12-21-07, 01:56 PM

like CINCY +3

**patsfan2727** · 12-21-07, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by masr

like CINCY +3

In the last 8 games....

Cleveland is 7-1 ATS. Their only loss was to AZ, in the game where they got the shaft on the force-out on the last play of the game. They need a win to clinch a playoff spot.

Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS. They just lost as serious favorites in San Fran. They don't play that well @ home, and they have nothing to play for other than individual stats.

Seriously, please give me ONE reason to take the bungles other than these two teams play each other tough. If you are so confident with CIN take the ML dude. I wouldn't take Cincy here even at +7.....

**Cannonfodder** · 12-21-07, 05:45 PM

Patsfan has it right, see he bases his picks on logic not voodoo. If you want to pick cinci you must have a reason.

**The Seer** · 12-21-07, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

They need a win to clinch a playoff spot.

.....

That's an overated angle.

**Ditaln1** · 12-21-07, 08:43 PM

People always laugh at me when I say "a team is playing with high emotion or to win a playoff spot" . What is the greatest motivator? Fear usually, The Cleveland players know that winning this game puts them in the playoffs, and the 'fear' of losing will motivate them. But then again, I always get laughed at when I say that. so laugh away

On the other angle, even though Cincy is out of the race, wouldn't they love to NOT see Cleveland go to the Playoffs?

Personally, I like Cleveland here, they have been playing very good ball lately. Their offense clicks now, their running game is good. Cinci just doesn't seem to have it together this year, even with their great receivers.

**Skidcom** · 12-21-07, 09:12 PM

I see Vertigo catching up to CLV. Cincy did look awful but the money flow is shading way too much to the browns

**jayz00** · 12-22-07, 02:20 AM

I like cincy here....... I agree with the fact that one team is playing for a play off berth is overrated. specially on the road thats a added burden. Football or any sport for that matter is about momentum shifts. looking at the tapes of these two teams past few games, I can't find any team having two much over the other in any department. Except one team was very disappointing last week. Did not show any heart when they went down on the "road".

But i like them to turn things around here at home. They showed me enough last week to suggest that they can. IMO cincy is the value here.

GL everyone

**Stevebeav** · 12-22-07, 03:48 AM

Agree with premise

"Team A has something to play for" has to be one of the top 5 worst arguments in sports betting..absolutely correct.

One of the money makers for cappers over past several decades....66% winners other way, plus the dreaded sandwich game....Home Div Games, and road fav / Home Dog in Div is also in 60's....acc'dg to a very well read book by leading capper...uumm, I think his intials are something like war..?

ALL THAT SAID, when you cruch the RAW numbers, and take out the systems....Cleve is at least -3....but all the variables, leave me looking to, "Find a Better g

ame"

**Spaded707** · 12-22-07, 10:22 PM

Bengals are going to **** the browns up every week this season they have followed a loss with a win they want nothing more than to beat there division rival and get revenge for early this year, Bengals Moneyline for sure

**The Baron** · 12-23-07, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by The Seer

That is a typical public view on this game and why the books set the lines the way they do.

And you are what? Better than the public. Do you have a magic crystal ball? Is it telling you to bet Ravens? Baltimore sucks. They will loose.