Is Cleveland A Trap Game?

[SBR Lou]

-3

versus Bengals in Cincinnati...

Jamal Lewis is like a bowling ball, he should run over the Bengals, Derek Anderson is a stud, am I missing out on something other than the road factor?? Some key injuries here?

[area51steve]

No, it's not a trap.. Get in on the browns early.. There is no way the bengals defense will be able to stop the browns. The worst that could happen is the browns win by 3 points and you get your money back. Wouldn't doubt if the line moves to 3.5 or 4 in the next couple days.. GL

[SBR Lou]

Strongly considering this.. funny thing is the role reversal from earlier this year.. After Browns got blown out by Pittsburgh, everyone thought the Bengals would clean the Browns clock in week 2...

[area51steve]

Strongly considering this.. funny thing is the role reversal from earlier this year.. After Browns got blown out by Pittsburgh, everyone thought the Bengals would clean the Browns clock in week 2...

Yea, its crazy.. Who would of thought the browns would be playoff contenders this year. They got one hell of an offense but it's their defense that needs work.. That game in week 2 was crazy.. Don't remember the score but that game went way over the total.

[beaneaters]

I don't know if a division rival can count as a trap game, but I agree, Cleveland at -3 is as good as its going to get this week. Both teams can score, but Cleveland has plenty to play for.

[slacker00]

Cleveland is on a mission. Bengals have packed it in for the season. Then again, maybe the Bengals took last week off resting up for the chance to punk a hated division rival. But, I just think the Bengals are pussy cats in 2007. Pound the dawg pound.

[outdrawed]

The game is in Cincinatti.

[outdrawed]

I will most likely be on Cinci big btw. Cleveland and Cinci are far more evenly matched than people want to think.

[pokernut9999]

2 highly intelligent teams will be meeting here. The key will be to take the team that makes less than 20 mental mistakes. Of course with it being so close to Christmas both teams will have a lot on their minds other than football.

[buztah]

When division rivals meet you can throw stats out the window. Just look at Dallas and Philly. This game could go either way and the Bengals have as much to play for as the Browns -- the opportunity to keep a team they hate out of the POs. If I were to play it I would take the bengals ML. No bet placed yet though. Got to think on it a bit more.

[outdrawed]

Cinci is an intelligent team? You just spent an evening arguing that most professional athletes were stupid and used Chad Johnson as evidence. Marvin Lewis and Romeo Crennel are widely considered to be two of the worst coaches in the league. Hell, the Bengals had 10 guys arrested last year. How does any of this add up to intelligent football teams?

[pokernut9999]

Cinci is an intelligent team? You just spent an evening arguing that most professional athletes were stupid and used Chad Johnson as evidence. Marvin Lewis and Romeo Crennel are widely considered to be two of the worst coaches in the league. Hell, the Bengals had 10 guys arrested last year. How does any of this add up to intelligent football teams?

And you say you are intelligent and you missed the whole point of the post.

[outdrawed]

I guess I did...

[EGGY6199]

look there is no good side to this one bar the over maybe... too close to call

[outdrawed]

Well I disagree. I think Cinci is the right side, and once I have time to get numbers to back that up, I will.

[The Seer]

There is no way the bengals defense will be able to stop the browns. The worst that could happen is the browns win by 3 points and you get your money back.

That's the same kind of thinking that people were on here saying about the Bengals - 49ers last week. I'm liking the Bengals even more now. Be wary of cleveland being a road favorite.

[Ditaln1]

I will most likely be on Cinci big btw. Cleveland and Cinci are far more evenly matched than people want to think.

No offense here Outdrawn, but are you serious?

Let's look at the teams over the past few weeks.

Last week : Cleveland 8, bills 0 (ok, crappy weather had a factor)
Cincy 13 , SAN FRAN(SAN FRAN!!!) 20

2 weeks ago : Cincy 19 , St. loius 10 (barely beat ST.loius)
Cleveland 24 , Jets 18 (big come back from behind)

Sure, Cleveland lost to Arizona the week before, cincy lost to pitts. I can keep going.

Again, no offense but these two teams are not evenly matched, Cleveland has this all day.

Chad Johnson drops way too many balls, even though his stats are decent this year. Carson Palmer is sub par. TJ is a great receiver if Carson can actually throw a ball without getting intercepted.

Cleveland has the leading punt returner in the league(per yard gained), 3rd best TE, a damn good receiver in Edwards, great running game with Lewis and let's face it, Anderson has been the star this year for them.

I agree with this, if both teams offenses are 'on' this game, it will be a shoot out like when they played first of the year, but the way Cleveland has been playing lately and how Cincy has been playing, I think Cleveland has more momentum and desire to win.

That's my 2 cents.

Oh, and Cleveland is 11-3 ATS this year and Cincy is 4-9-1 . Just some info.

[outdrawed]

No offense here Outdrawn, but are you serious?

Yes.

Let's look at the teams over the past few weeks.

Last week : Cleveland 8, bills 0 (ok, crappy weather had a factor)
Cincy 13 , SAN FRAN(SAN FRAN!!!) 20

2 weeks ago : Cincy 19 , St. loius 10 (barely beat ST.loius)
Cleveland 24 , Jets 18 (big come back from behind)

Sure, Cleveland lost to Arizona the week before, cincy lost to pitts. I can keep going.

You didn't say anything that even came close to having Cleveland as better than Cinci, never mind almost a TD better on a neutral field. apparently when Cinci beat St. Louis by 9, they BARELY beat them, and when Cleveland won by 6 against the Jets, it was a great come from behind win. Give me a break. Cleveland was the team that dodged a bullet.

Again, no offense but these two teams are not evenly matched, Cleveland has this all day.

Chad Johnson drops way too many balls, even though his stats are decent this year. Carson Palmer is sub par. TJ is a great receiver if Carson can actually throw a ball without getting intercepted.

Cleveland has the leading punt returner in the league(per yard gained), 3rd best TE, a damn good receiver in Edwards, great running game with Lewis and let's face it, Anderson has been the star this year for them.

Lolz. CJ and Housh > Edwards. Palmer and Anderson are pretty close, although Anderson has had one heck of a year and I hope he continues to do well. Anyways, you still haven't said anything about Cleveland being 3 points better on the road, just that Cleveland has a better offense, which I agree with.

I agree with this, if both teams offenses are 'on' this game, it will be a shoot out like when they played first of the year, but the way Cleveland has been playing lately and how Cincy has been playing, I think Cleveland has more momentum and desire to win.

Momentum and "desire" to win is so overrated.

Oh, and Cleveland is 11-3 ATS this year and Cincy is 4-9-1 . Just some info.

Big whoop. It took the public over half the year to realize that Cleveland was a solid football team and that Cincy wasn't. These records are completely irrelevant.

I'm not saying Cinci is the better team. I said Cinci is better than people want to give them credit for. Their 5-9 record is a poor reflection on how they've played this year, and they've played far better at home than on the road. Anytime >65% of the public is on the road favorite, I almost always go the other way, especially if I can back it up. Cleveland is about 3 points better on a neutral field, and I will gladly play the Bengals here.

[pokernut9999]

How about Cleveland is going to playoffs and Bengals are not.

Usually a good indicator who is better team.

[outdrawed]

How about Cleveland is going to playoffs and Bengals are not.

Usually a good indicator who is better team.

Huh? I already said Cleveland is the better team. I'm pretty sure you're trying to argue with me for the sake of arguing with me.

[outdrawed]

also, that's a pretty poor indicator of who the better team is. remember when baltimore was 4-2? Yeah, they sucked then too.

[pokernut9999]

need to change your handle to sloooowdraw

[outdrawed]

See, you keep making this terrible posts (both in this thread and the other) that are completely devoid of any logic whatsoever and then instead of trying to explain what you meant with your terrible logic, you try and turn it around that I'm just stupid for not knowing what the hell you are talking about.

[jayz00]

i like the bengals here i think they were disappointed with the bad start against the 49ers. I didnt like the body language of the bengals when they went down last week..... but thats happens when you are on the road. I dont look at too much stats, coz they are exactly that "stats" .

Im going with cincy here to turn things around at home...... I like the fact that they are the dogs too.... can"t find anything in the browns to tell me they gonna run away with this one. that suites me just fine.

the fact that browns have something to play for........thats more pressure on them.... For a little road fav that could be fatal.

cincy for me for now

[The Seer]

Actually outdrawed is right. They are closer than people realize. The big difference in the spread figures is Cincy was expected to do big things and Clevelnad hasn't been. ATS is past perception. Just because a team is 11-3 ATS and the other is 4-9-1 doesn't mean the better overall ats will cover. If anything it means just the opposite. Just because Clev is playing for the playoffs and Cincy isn't doesn't mean Cincy will show up and go half speed. They are pro athletes and will play just as hard.

Offensive
ppg
Cincy 23.1
Clev 26.3

Yds/r
Cincy 3.7
Clev 4.2

Yds/pass
both 7

passer ratings -Palmer is actually slightly better and has more yards so he doesn't throw any worse than Clev

Defensive

ppg allowed
Clev 25.4
Cincy 24.7

yd/r
Clev 4.5
Cincy 4.2

yd/p
clev 6.5 allowed 27 TD passes and more passing yds
Cincy 7.1 " 25 TD passes

interceptions (def)
Clev 8
Cincy 13 Cincy +4 to margin

[RickySteve]

Uh oh!

[The Seer]

How about Cleveland is going to playoffs and Bengals are not.

Usually a good indicator who is better team.

Kinda like the Seattle - Carolina indicator.

[outdrawed]

Kinda like the Seattle - Carolina indicator.

I'm confused. Do you disagree that Seattle is the better team?

[The Seer]

I'm confused. Do you disagree that Seattle is the better team?

Seattle- going to playoffs. Carolina - not. Carolina beat Seattle.
I think Seattle is the better overall team. I'm just showing that it doesn't necessarily mean shit. Cleveland may be better on a neutral field but I don't think they will be at Cincy.

[pokernut9999]

Kinda like the Seattle - Carolina indicator.

Seattle had clinched already and nothing to play for.

I never said who would win the game, just pointing out who the better team is.

[pokernut9999]

Actually outdrawed is right. They are closer than people realize. The big difference in the spread figures is Cincy was expected to do big things and Clevelnad hasn't been. ATS is past perception. Just because a team is 11-3 ATS and the other is 4-9-1 doesn't mean the better overall ats will cover. If anything it means just the opposite. Just because Clev is playing for the playoffs and Cincy isn't doesn't mean Cincy will show up and go half speed. They are pro athletes and will play just as hard.

Offensive
ppg
Cincy 23.1
Clev 26.3

Yds/r
Cincy 3.7
Clev 4.2

Yds/pass
both 7

passer ratings -Palmer is actually slightly better and has more yards so he doesn't throw any worse than Clev

Defensive

ppg allowed
Clev 25.4
Cincy 24.7

yd/r
Clev 4.5
Cincy 4.2

yd/p
clev 6.5 allowed 27 TD passes and more passing yds
Cincy 7.1 " 25 TD passes

interceptions (def)
Clev 8
Cincy 13 Cincy +4 to margin

the old saying is stats are for loseers. Only thing that counts is the W's

[ShamsWoof10]

I like Cinncy. ML here... Cinncy. can still put points up and move the ball...

[The Seer]

the old saying is stats are for loseers. Only thing that counts is the W's

I agree with you.
I normally don't hang my hat on stats either (as was the case with SF, Chi last week). However, I was saying that I think they are relatively even teams as well. Cleveland has probably come through in the clutch a few more times which is something that can't be measured by stats except W and Ls.

[outdrawed]

Seattle- going to playoffs. Carolina - not. Carolina beat Seattle.
I think Seattle is the better overall team. I'm just showing that it doesn't necessarily mean shit. Cleveland may be better on a neutral field but I don't think they will be at Cincy.

Seattle wasn't 7.5 points better, but they are still a better team, and would win >50% of the time in Carolina.

[outdrawed]

the old saying is stats are for loseers. Only thing that counts is the W's

Actually, I use almost all stats in my picks. They are a far better indicator of future success than W/L.