important factors for NFL capping

[dbDan]

newbie to the forum. what factors do you sharp guys see as most important in NFL football capping? thanks ahead of time.

[kroyrunner89]

It's all about the matchups. I love betting situations where a team has a one dimensional offense and is facing a team who's defense specializes in taking that away. Here's an example from last season:

Week 12 the Panthers were playing at the Jets. Both teams were 4-6, it looked like a pretty even game between two bad teams, as evidenced by Vegas' line of Jets -3. Here's what we knew at the time, the Panthers' rushing attack was one of the best in the NFL, rushing for 4.97 yards/carry at the time. Their passing game was below average however, and CB Darrell Revis was going to be covering their best WR Steve Smith. At the time, the Jets had the #3 best pass defense in the NFL, so it looked very likely that the Panthers were going to really struggle moving the ball through the air. So, you had to figure they'd try to lean on their elite ground game to get the job done. However, the Jets' also had the #8 running defense at the time as well, so I figured the Panthers' ground game would be reasonably contained. On the other side, the Jets' strongest point to season, running the ball (6th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt), was matched up with the abysmal Panthers' rush defense (28th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt allowed). I figured this game was going to be played mainly on the ground, and that the Jets had a clear edge, so I went with the plays Jets -3 and Under 41.5.

How did the game turn out? Both the Panthers' rushing and passing attacks were smothered. They ran the ball 25 times for just 75 yards, and passed 34 times for a measly 130 yards, with 4 interceptions. The final score was 17-6 Jets, and both my bets won. Find situations like these and NFL is really quite easy to profit from. You can take a look at the original writeup for the plays in my Week 12 thread here, good luck with your NFL betting this season!

[THE PROFIT]

I am a situational capper. Playing against teams going on the road after 3 straight weeks at home, shit like that.

[Rig]

go with a smart gut

[GunShard]

This is my second year in handicapping.

-Bet to win, never bet because it's fun and for the action or it's your favorite team.

-Bet on certain games, never bet on all games in one weekend and never bet on a hyped game because like Sunday and Monday night football unless it's a good spot to win.

-Money Management is the most importance.

-Future bets seem to be easier to win than ATS. Most people bet ATS because it's on every week, Futures are there for one season.

-Pay attention to the lines to the end of the week, if you can value off it.

-Pay attention to injuries.

These are rules that I follow that seems to work.

[DaProfessor23]

Good thread , alot of good info . this will be my first season trying to handicap nfl games. will use some info in this thread to help me . ty guys

[Grits n' Gravy]

all of theabove mentioned are great tools to use.

some stats i find relevant are:

- 3rd down conversion % for offense and defense
- yards per play
- points off turnovers----i also take ratings away from teams who turn it over at a high % when in scoring range.

many more, but these are a good starting point.

[icancount2one]

Kroyrunners post is great, the style defines the fight.

Also, I have a tendency to fade public perception. Look for underrated teams up against overrated teams.

[xxxvince]

wheather for over and under

[BGboothA]

Koy runner nailed it, you have to do the research...don't just bet to bet. If you aren't making a logical bet don't make the bet. I will often argue with myself (aloud) in order to defend a bet. If I can't make a solid data driven defense, then I shouldn't be making the bet.

[dbDan]

Thanks guys, all good.

BTW, are these jerseys sold in the SBR store? I don't see them. Not cheap, though or can I buy them with points?

[Daveyboy]

This is my second year in handicapping.

-Bet to win, never bet because it's fun and for the action or it's your favorite team.

-Bet on certain games, never bet on all games in one weekend and never bet on a hyped game because like Sunday and Monday night football unless it's a good spot to win.

-Money Management is the most importance.

-Future bets seem to be easier to win than ATS. Most people bet ATS because it's on every week, Futures are there for one season.

-Pay attention to the lines to the end of the week, if you can value off it.

-Pay attention to injuries.

These are rules that I follow that seems to work.

I can tell this guys a pro

[CLASSIC ROCK]

this should be a sticky great stuff to share

[bigsmitty]

Chance Harper did a great writeup about kickers...yeah I said it kickers. Most of us (especially me) are all about the big play dudes but the guys with feet win many games. Cheers-here's his gig if you want it-Putting the Foot Back in Football Betting

[JayTrotter]

Readiness is all. The name of the game is habit. If you have the right ones you win, if you have the wrong ones you don't.

MOST IMPORTANT! WIN BETS!

1. keep track of your bets, and your reasons for those bets. (to evaluate your performance and where you do well, concentrate on what YOU do best.)
2. set goals, and create plans of attack BEFORE the season starts. I.E when will you raise your bet amount, when will you lower it, will you use a percentage based on the running total of your bankroll. good advice to have a set of commandments.
3. Research the schedule, prior to the season. Focus on travel, who the team played the week before, and who they play the week after. Travel can be a huge determinant of who wins and who loses.. (especially in college football)
4. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. It's very hard to have a GREAT or a TERRIBLE performance (compared to season average) two times in a row.
5. The line is set to influence gambling activity. The sports book has years of experience, a very large bankroll, and some very strong computer algorithms. It might be the LIONS VS the COLTS unless you can find someway to exploit their size, or utilize their strengths to your advantage.

There are a couple parts of sports betting.

1. TEAM MATCH UP
2. SITUATION
3. MARKET REACTION/ PERCEPTION

THE Most Profitable of these three is to understand the market reaction. For the most part the line doesn't matter in NFL football. 75% is pick a winner, because the lines are so small.

[lovetobet]

Very good thread and some very nice points laid out. One thing that has been touched on is line movement.

In addition to all your other capping I would keep a close eye on line movement. I know some people subscribe to Reverse line movement and some don't. In my research for the past 2 years I have found that RLM is very inconsistent in every sport except one, the NFL.

I have shown a very nice win percentage and profit under a system where I am looking exclusively at RLM in the NFL and nothing else. The point I'm making is not that you need to bet this way or track RLM but I would be aware of any game that you are on that has RLM especially if you are on the wrong side of the movement. In these situations I might just make this a "no play" and move on to another game.

To me this is just one other thing to consider when capping games. I think in the NFL, watching public money and line movement is another useful tool in our arsenal to help dictate our bets.

[JayTrotter]

Reverse line movement?

hmmm?

so when the line goes from -3 to -6 I bet the dog?

[kroyrunner89]

Reverse line movement is if the majority of the public is on one side but the line moves the other way. For example, line is Saints -3, 65% of the public is on the Saints, then the line moves to Saints -2.5. In that case if you follow reverse line movement you should take whoever the Saints are playing

[dbDan]

Reverse line movement is if the majority of the public is on one side but the line moves the other way. For example, line is Saints -3, 65% of the public is on the Saints, then the line moves to Saints -2.5. In that case if you follow reverse line movement you should take whoever the Saints are playing

How do you know 65% of the public is on the Saints at -3? Is there a site that tells you this?

[VegasRandy]

I kept track of traditional NFL stats from '98 to '06 and the best advice I can give you is traditional college & NFL stats are meaningless because these stats have no context. For stats to have meaning you have to consider the situation in which the stats where achieved. Traditional stats do not do this which makes the stats vanilla and far less meaningful.

Example- What's more impressive, a 2 yrd run or a 4 yrd run? NFL stats will assign more value to the 4 yrd run but is the 4 yrd more valuable? Let's say the 2 yrd run was achieved on 3rd and one resulting in a first down and the 4 yrd run was achieved on 2nd and ten. With context the value of the 2 yrd run and the resulting first down is much more meaningful than a run that was twice as long and achieved in much less difficult conditions.

There are many scenarios like this that NFL stats don't distingush against making the underlying stats a poor barometer of actual success.

It took me 9 years to figure this out. I hope you understand this quicker than I did.

Good luck

[dvb02]

How do you know 65% of the public is on the Saints at -3? Is there a site that tells you this?

try this site sportsinsights.com

[GunShard]

I also forget to say that Weather is a factor as well.

Rain, Snow and Wind can effect how many points are scored in a game. The team with the strongest offense seem to win.

[lovetobet]

Kroyrunner - thanks for the explanation

DVB - correct sportsinsights is solid. You can also look at SBR.

[vboyt]

flip a coin!