Canadian Football League 2 0 1 0

CLASSIC ROCK · 07-30-10, 07:40 AM

Like EDM tonight ,what's your thoughts Hawk

Hawk007 · 07-30-10, 08:05 AM

*.5 BC/Edm o53 (push)

YTD
2-3
-.95u

mart59a · 07-30-10, 12:56 PM

Great job Hawk…let’s keep it going.

BC - +1.5

The Lions just have a better team. Expect them to pound the turf against the worst rushing defence in the CFL.They won the first game against the Eskimos 25-10 and I think they can win this one too.

dakota_nyg · 07-30-10, 01:58 PM

What's with the Eskies? Will they ever win?

mart59a · 07-30-10, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by dakota_nyg

What's with the Eskies? Will they ever win?

Not tonight...hopefully.

TKAT · 07-30-10, 05:00 PM

i took EDM cuz its there last chance. BC is better, but EDM is better then theyve shown. lose and your coach is gone and players are gone too. desperate times... goodluck to you all

BetterBizness · 07-30-10, 11:44 PM

I Parlayed Esks -2 + Over 52.5 with the late movement...

JUST ONE TIME FINALLY!

Hawk007 · 07-31-10, 12:04 AM

BetterBizness

TKAT

BetterBizness · 07-31-10, 12:09 AM

16 points at the half + Lightning storms and Rain all second half... and they score 37... Still not sure how we got to 53...

mart59a · 07-31-10, 12:02 PM

Congrats to the Eskimo backers and how about that total...exactly 53.
BetterBizness gets gets them both by a hair.

Does everyone like the home teams today?

TKAT · 07-31-10, 12:48 PM

all over the home teams...unsure of the total in the SK game may play under 27 1st half, we'll see...going over 55 in CGY as well bol

jureslo · 07-31-10, 01:10 PM

Saskatchewan will win today but I don't know if they'll cover.

BetterBizness · 07-31-10, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by mart59a

Congrats to the Eskimo backers and how about that total...exactly 53.
BetterBizness gets gets them both by a hair.

Does everyone like the home teams today?

I was actually on the right side of a Stupid coaching move when BC Coach Buano went for 2 after they scored on the pick 6... setting the table for an Eskimo TD.. .anyhow... old news now...

Thinking Sask/Ham Over again... NFL Network shows it for all the US base crew as well...

joe.park · 07-31-10, 03:14 PM

I like Sask game over today.

TKAT · 07-31-10, 04:28 PM

locked in the SK cover, and took CGY -6.5 and the over -55...just unsure on the SK total

mart59a · 07-31-10, 05:01 PM

SK cover - CGY -6.5 - and the over. With you on this KAT.

jureslo · 07-31-10, 05:06 PM

I'm in. Sask to cover.

Hawk007 · 07-31-10, 05:28 PM

*1.5 Ham/Sas O55 (WIN)
*1 WPG/Cal U55 (WIN)

YTD
4-3
+1.55u

jureslo · 08-01-10, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by jureslo

I'm in. Sask to cover.

mart59a · 08-05-10, 10:50 AM

Any thoughts on these Friday picks ?

Montreal (-6 )
This is a revenge game for the Als … expect the home team to bring it this time around.

Edmonton (-5 )
No comparison to Ricky Ray and Cleo Lemon at Qb ... I like the home team here as well.

Hawk007 · 08-05-10, 12:58 PM

*1 Sas +6'

BetterBizness · 08-05-10, 01:02 PM

I debating the flyer moneyline with Sask +210 right now... Green Riders are solid road team... Solid team everywhere really... Not going to get a price like this rest of the year...

Hate f*n value though... Value never seems to cash checks...

CLASSIC ROCK · 08-05-10, 01:56 PM

sask line looks too good scares me

BetterBizness · 08-05-10, 02:13 PM

Further looking at tonight...

Montreal, after losing by 3 opening night in a shootout, by all rights, SHOULD have lost game 2 but for the Eskimos WR Stamps dropping a gift in the third Quarter that would have by rights ended the game, going up 19...

As it happens... Montreal scores next drive, Win the game... Go into a Struggling BC and Squeek out another one despite being behind...

So really, COULD the Als be 0-3... VERY likely... Instead, they are 2-1, with Momentum, and kick it into high gear Crushing the lowly Cats, and the Overachieving Argos...

Sask on the other hand... Beat the Als Week 1, win on the Road in BC (Who won IN Edmonton the week before), Win a rivalry game vs those same Esks in Week 3... But then get a whopping to Calgary in Week 4, but mostly due to a 21 point 4th Quarter... Week 5 Again, the lowly Cats get beaten, and here we are Two 4-1 teams squaring off...

So after the History lesson, my take is that the Riders are a VERY good team, playing a Very Decent Team with some momentum... But I do not quantify a VERY Decent team to be a 6.5 point Fav... And I believe that the ML +210 has a very good opportunity to rear its head...

With THAT said, Talking Totals...

I also believe the Total will be WAY, WAY Under the 60... I see this game more in the 24-21 range then the 54-51 range as it was in Game 1... Even 31-28 makes it.... I think If you believe in Rider Nation, the under is a gift tonight as Both Defenses continue to get better and are approaching mid-season form. Take away Week 1, and The Riders are 2-1-1 on the Under 60 (The Over coming from the 18 Point final 4 minutes of last game... The week before 16 points in the final 4 to hit 60)

Montreal is a very Under team going 0-4 under 60 the last 4 games, tossing out week 1... Books are obviously referencing back to the shootout of week 1 to keep this total up there, along with the last 2 Rider games that shouldn't have been... My analysis says that this game should be a ball moving careful possession game, that Montreal showed last 3 games with over 37 Minutes, 29 Minutes, 35 Minutes respectfully (Sask hovers within seconds of exactly 30 minutes for the last 3 games... ) Should be very tight...

May even be a good opportunity to parlay A Sask Cover with the Under if things go according to plan... (when does that happen?)

Me thinks I'll fly with a 1 unit Sask +6.5 + Under 60.... But I like 2 units on the Under tonight... But it looks like based on the Sask Last couple that the number will need ALOT of cushion, so If you can get a first half line total, that would likely be a very, very good bet for Below 30...

BetterBizness · 08-05-10, 02:17 PM

My line on intertops just went to Riders +7, and ML +230... If you're on the Riders, this is a very very good time to bet them...

Hawk007 · 08-05-10, 08:03 PM

Thanks for your insights. Excellent write-up and I agree on the inflated total, might jump on it as well.

Locked in at +7.

BetterBizness · 08-05-10, 09:57 PM

Obviously Overthinking here, but I mentioned the under bet I made to a friend of mine who knee jerked the reaction "but don't those teams play each other over alot?"

2009

Grey Cup
Mon 28 Sask 27

Week 8
Mon 34 Sask 25

Week 2
Mon 43 Sask 10

All 3 games last year Under 60...

Sask overall 2009 - 5 of 20 Over 60...
Mon Overall 2009 - 7 of 20 Over 60

CLASSIC ROCK · 08-06-10, 08:38 AM

good stuff better biz thinking under myself

BetterBizness · 08-06-10, 10:59 AM

Thanks Hawk and Rock..

Since I got some good responses from you guys, I'll try and go a little further into the Edmonton Game and see if we can come up with anything...

mart59a · 08-06-10, 12:22 PM

Thanks for the awesome write-up Biz...should be a good game.
Still like the Als -7 at home.
Good luck to all.

BetterBizness · 08-06-10, 12:26 PM

Edmonton Toronto Preview

Edm -5.5 -230 O/U 51

I'm going to try and not be such a Homer, since I'm in Edmonton and am going to the game...

But It looks like alot of this game will be based on Emotions, which right off the bat, is BAD... Because to me, when there are too many emotional, and personal decisions leading up to a game, Like the Maciocia Firing, and The retaining of Lemon at QB... You end up Guessing ALOT... So right off the bat I'm not betting this game much at all...

Despite being the Homer, I will say initially the Eskimos are starting to put stuff together, getting their first Win, at Home, in their first 5 games... That's good, and so my lean is taking the inflated money line right now for a small action wager, but to go after the 5.5?? Yikes...

Clearly, the line is one of those "transition" band wagon lines that focuses heavy on each of their last games, that could have Perfect Storm written all over it... Or will it?

Really, this shouldn't be more than a FG line... But after Win #1, it seems the Eskimos have "Figured out how to win"... versus the One REAL bad outing by the Argo's, who, despite having TWO more wins then the Eskimos, were VERY MUCH in the game in Montreal last week, down just a TD at half... But like Montreal seems to do, building on momentum, they scored 24 unanswered in the second half... So then what... Argo's now won't win a game all season??? Lets toss in the towel???

What about the 3 games before when Toronto Beat BC by 4 (Home), Calgary by 3 (Home), and Winnipeg by 2 (Road)... Lemon was 19/28, 18/36, and 15/23... Last week, Lemon was just 8 for 19... Clearly a carefully possessed Road game would be in the works for Toronto if they are to hang out to the end...

To me the kid is still learning the Canadian game, and now his job/career is on the line.. But Edmonton isn't exactly an easy place to place historically, although, just 1 win in 3 games at home isn't exactly inspiring any Eskimo fans...

Last years Toronto / Edmonton Matchups

Week 16 - Edm 22 - 19 (In Toronto)
Week 18 - Edm 36 - 10 (In Edmonton)

Remember though, both games were also DEEP into the season where Toronto was WELL out of the playoffs... The Argos next win, will give them 4 wins, the most they've seen in the past 2 seasons... Doesn't mean it will happen tonight, but I'm pretty sure they will fight pretty hard to bounce back....

With that Said... Ricky Ray has thrown for 300+ in 3 of the last 4... Despite Losing 3 of the past 4... The Eskimos are stacked for people to Catch the Ball out of all sorts of Formations... simply Put, Edmonton Is BUILT to score lots of points with the personal they have... As much as Toronto has to keep this game close early, If they let Edmonton start pitching and catching, this could be a repeat of last weeks second half vs Montreal... Keep in mind also that RB Whitlock has 3 - 99+ yard games out of 5... And again, It's up to the Toronto Defense to stop ALOT of weapons...

If the Argo's are going to hang on, the Time of Possession will be crucial... in their 3 wins they never exceeded 31 minutes, and in the 2 losses, just 17 minutes (week 1 Calgary) and 22 minutes (Week 5 Montreal)... Again, this could have Blowout written all over it...

I think, the conservative approach is taking Edmonton ML, and making a little something on the -230... But as a degen, I may in fact look to attacking the NO Value 5.5...

The total on this game will likely fall in line with Toronto's play, moreso than Edmonton...

In Toronto's losses, they have scored 10,16 points.. in their wins 36,27,24.. On the number (51) they are 1-2-2

Edmontons games tend to be in the 20's - 10, 23,20 21, 28 ...On the Number (51) - They are 3-2

If I'm leaning on the Esks in a Blowout, 35-14 seems reasonable, thus under...
If I'm leaning on Toronto to play a tight game and cover... I could see more of a 28-25 score... For either side...

The Action Junkie I am, I'm going to say Edmonton 35-14 is my lean... Do with that what you will....

miley · 08-06-10, 03:42 PM

Montreal is great lately. I think they cover.

isles71 · 08-06-10, 05:00 PM

I will try saskatchewan +7

BetterBizness · 08-06-10, 05:45 PM

My Line has moved on the Eskimo game to -6 and 50.5... Looks like alot of money is going Edmonton's way...

BetterBizness · 08-06-10, 06:37 PM

Wow what a horrible start to the Montreal Game for the Under betters... I hope they can settle down...