I had a very mediocre week last week going 9-7 and 2-2 on best bets bringing my overall record to 48-35-2 and 18-10 in best bets. So far I'm about 600 bucks up in the NFL this year as I've put 100 on every best bet.
Chicago +3 @ Washington -- I feel for Washington. I really do. They have had to deal with so much. But at 5-7 they seem done to me. They have lost 4 straight, 3 in a row since Taylor left for injury. And now... I just don't see it. Grossman has only thrown one pick since becoming the starter again 3 weeks ago.
Carolina +10.5 @ Jacksonville --- Playing a pathetic 49er team may jumpstart this Carolina team. They are going to be playing hard as they still have an outside shot at the last NFC wildcard position. I look for them to keep it close enough to cover.
Dallas -10 @ Detroit --- Detroit is falling apart by the seems. They can't run. AT ALL. Dallas, who has had secondary problems, can focus on the pass because not only do the Lions have no rushing offense, they don't even attempt to have one. I think there might be a lot of points scored in this one (I like over 51 as well). If I had to take a guess I'd say the score maybe be somewhere in the 38-24 range.
Buffalo -7.5 vs Miami ---Miami is toast. They had the Jets at home, their best chance to pick up a W, and they lost by 27. I don't see them winning this season. Buffalo, at 6-6, is very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt. The line at 7.5 is a bit scary because the Bills don't score much... but then again, neither did the Jets. If the line is below 7 I say its a sure thing. But if the line moves at all, I highly doubt it will be in that direction.
NYG +3 @ Philly -- I'm not a Philly fan or a Donovon McNabb fan by any means, but I have to say, I got a kick out of that abysmal performance by Feeley Sunday. I can't believe people were talking QB controversy. Jim Rome and others were just being straight up stupid. McNabb comes back just in time for a late playoff push... but the Giants will end it. Manning, who's confidence was obviously crushed vs the Vikings, gained it back in the 4th quarter last week. The Eagles, in my opinion, fall one weapon short on offense... if the Giants can keep Westbrook from exploding, I see them winning this game
Pittsburgh +13 @ New England --- The Patriots have found a way to come back and win the last two but near defeats to two average at best teams has brought some questions to the forefront. To me, Randy Moss's play the last two weeks epitomize the Pats stumbles. He doesn't seem to be playing as hard as he did early in the season and in the last two weeks he has dropped as many touchdown passes as he has grabbed. The Patriots defense has shown holes and have let opposing running backs have big games catching the ball throughout the season. If the Steelers can utilize Willie Parker effectively then they can make a game of this
San Diego pk @ Tennessee --- Honestly, I just really don't think Tennessee is that good. Young has finally shown the ability to throw the ball downfield but he too lacks weapons. The running game, their so-called forte, is not as good as people thought. San Diego is back on track and seems to be hitting stride. Now that Turners job seems secure I think the Chargers are playing loose and I expect them to dominant this game on the road
Oakland +10.5 @ Green Bay --- Oakland has shown flashes. They are a team on the rise. Kiffin has said he doesn't want to start Russell in the hostel GB environment and McCown played great Sunday. McCown starts but if he struggles I bet we see Russell. I have almost no doubt that Farve will start Sunday though I haven't seen anything on his status in a few days. He will need to shake the Dallas game off and play mistake free football like he's done all year. I like the Raiders to keep it close, especially if they can cause a turnover or two
Cinci -6 vs St. Louis --- The reason this line hasn't come out yet on most books is probably due to the crazy nature of the Rams QB situation. Bulger will likely be out. Frerotte is also likely to miss week 14. Neither QB has played well but if Brock Berlin is the starter (never taken an NFL snap) then the Rams have real problems. Who are we kidding though? They already have real problems. They can't run they ball even with one of the best back in the game. Cincinnati is still explosive on offense and St. Louis isn't good against the run or the pass. This game has blowout written all over it
Tampa Bay +1 @ Houston --- this line has not open yet on most books... I can see why. Tampa has been on fire lately winning 4 straight. Their running game has come out of the woodworks, Graham has been stellar. Their passing game, though it ranks 20th in the league, has been incredibly efficient. Garcia has only thrown 3 picks all year and McCown played amazing last week, completing his first 15 passes. Houston has played well at home but injuries have decimated this once promising young team. Rosenfels will likely get the start and while his number look decent, most of that came in one game. The Texans lack a dominant run game and with Tampa's great pass defense I don't see Houston moving the ball.
Arizona +7 @ Seattle --- Arizona's playoff hopes are alive and well after a big win against Cleveland. They barely survived that game and won because Cleveland killed themselves with mistakes. Seattle won a VERY similar type game. They were outgained by Philly just as Arizona was by the Browns. If Boldin and Fitzgerald are healthy I think Seattle could be in for a long day
Minnesota -8.5 @ San Francisco --- San Francisco has to get Gore going. That's their only chance. My bet is that they won't. Dilfer can't turn the ball over. We knew he wasn't going to be winning any games for them but we didn't think he'd lose many either. He has. Minny runs all over the 9ers.
NYJ +3.5 vs Cleveland --- I think the Browns are starting to hear the footsteps. They played tight Sunday against Arizona. Derek Anderson has regressed a bit after a great start. He needs to calm his nerves. A loss here and things could fall apart for one of the best feel good stories in football. It will be interesting to see how they respond. They Jets are coming off a blowout victory after a win verse pittsburgh a few weeks ago. They are still playing hard even though their season is done. They could play the role of spoiler here.
Denver -6.5 vs Kansas City --- This one is a toss up to me. If the line hits 7 I would be on the other side, though again, I don't think it will move in that direction. Both teams just look bad now.
Indy -10 @ Baltimore --- Indy has the 2nd ranked offense and 4th ranked defense. Baltimore's offense ranks 26th. Their defense, though very solid against the run, has not been great against the pass. With 6 straight loses and their playoff chances out the window I look for Manning to carve up Baltimore's secondary. Baltimore gave the Pats a good run for their money but their focus may not be there early in the week as they try to get over the loss.
New Orleans -4.5 @ Atlanta ---New Orleans playoff hopes are dwindling. They need to win out. I look for Brees and company to leave Atlanta with a big win. Redman played well in bring the Falcons back last Sunday... but he's not the answer.
Chicago +3 @ Washington -- I feel for Washington. I really do. They have had to deal with so much. But at 5-7 they seem done to me. They have lost 4 straight, 3 in a row since Taylor left for injury. And now... I just don't see it. Grossman has only thrown one pick since becoming the starter again 3 weeks ago.
Carolina +10.5 @ Jacksonville --- Playing a pathetic 49er team may jumpstart this Carolina team. They are going to be playing hard as they still have an outside shot at the last NFC wildcard position. I look for them to keep it close enough to cover.
Dallas -10 @ Detroit --- Detroit is falling apart by the seems. They can't run. AT ALL. Dallas, who has had secondary problems, can focus on the pass because not only do the Lions have no rushing offense, they don't even attempt to have one. I think there might be a lot of points scored in this one (I like over 51 as well). If I had to take a guess I'd say the score maybe be somewhere in the 38-24 range.
Buffalo -7.5 vs Miami ---Miami is toast. They had the Jets at home, their best chance to pick up a W, and they lost by 27. I don't see them winning this season. Buffalo, at 6-6, is very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt. The line at 7.5 is a bit scary because the Bills don't score much... but then again, neither did the Jets. If the line is below 7 I say its a sure thing. But if the line moves at all, I highly doubt it will be in that direction.
NYG +3 @ Philly -- I'm not a Philly fan or a Donovon McNabb fan by any means, but I have to say, I got a kick out of that abysmal performance by Feeley Sunday. I can't believe people were talking QB controversy. Jim Rome and others were just being straight up stupid. McNabb comes back just in time for a late playoff push... but the Giants will end it. Manning, who's confidence was obviously crushed vs the Vikings, gained it back in the 4th quarter last week. The Eagles, in my opinion, fall one weapon short on offense... if the Giants can keep Westbrook from exploding, I see them winning this game
Pittsburgh +13 @ New England --- The Patriots have found a way to come back and win the last two but near defeats to two average at best teams has brought some questions to the forefront. To me, Randy Moss's play the last two weeks epitomize the Pats stumbles. He doesn't seem to be playing as hard as he did early in the season and in the last two weeks he has dropped as many touchdown passes as he has grabbed. The Patriots defense has shown holes and have let opposing running backs have big games catching the ball throughout the season. If the Steelers can utilize Willie Parker effectively then they can make a game of this
San Diego pk @ Tennessee --- Honestly, I just really don't think Tennessee is that good. Young has finally shown the ability to throw the ball downfield but he too lacks weapons. The running game, their so-called forte, is not as good as people thought. San Diego is back on track and seems to be hitting stride. Now that Turners job seems secure I think the Chargers are playing loose and I expect them to dominant this game on the road
Oakland +10.5 @ Green Bay --- Oakland has shown flashes. They are a team on the rise. Kiffin has said he doesn't want to start Russell in the hostel GB environment and McCown played great Sunday. McCown starts but if he struggles I bet we see Russell. I have almost no doubt that Farve will start Sunday though I haven't seen anything on his status in a few days. He will need to shake the Dallas game off and play mistake free football like he's done all year. I like the Raiders to keep it close, especially if they can cause a turnover or two
Cinci -6 vs St. Louis --- The reason this line hasn't come out yet on most books is probably due to the crazy nature of the Rams QB situation. Bulger will likely be out. Frerotte is also likely to miss week 14. Neither QB has played well but if Brock Berlin is the starter (never taken an NFL snap) then the Rams have real problems. Who are we kidding though? They already have real problems. They can't run they ball even with one of the best back in the game. Cincinnati is still explosive on offense and St. Louis isn't good against the run or the pass. This game has blowout written all over it
Tampa Bay +1 @ Houston --- this line has not open yet on most books... I can see why. Tampa has been on fire lately winning 4 straight. Their running game has come out of the woodworks, Graham has been stellar. Their passing game, though it ranks 20th in the league, has been incredibly efficient. Garcia has only thrown 3 picks all year and McCown played amazing last week, completing his first 15 passes. Houston has played well at home but injuries have decimated this once promising young team. Rosenfels will likely get the start and while his number look decent, most of that came in one game. The Texans lack a dominant run game and with Tampa's great pass defense I don't see Houston moving the ball.
Arizona +7 @ Seattle --- Arizona's playoff hopes are alive and well after a big win against Cleveland. They barely survived that game and won because Cleveland killed themselves with mistakes. Seattle won a VERY similar type game. They were outgained by Philly just as Arizona was by the Browns. If Boldin and Fitzgerald are healthy I think Seattle could be in for a long day
Minnesota -8.5 @ San Francisco --- San Francisco has to get Gore going. That's their only chance. My bet is that they won't. Dilfer can't turn the ball over. We knew he wasn't going to be winning any games for them but we didn't think he'd lose many either. He has. Minny runs all over the 9ers.
NYJ +3.5 vs Cleveland --- I think the Browns are starting to hear the footsteps. They played tight Sunday against Arizona. Derek Anderson has regressed a bit after a great start. He needs to calm his nerves. A loss here and things could fall apart for one of the best feel good stories in football. It will be interesting to see how they respond. They Jets are coming off a blowout victory after a win verse pittsburgh a few weeks ago. They are still playing hard even though their season is done. They could play the role of spoiler here.
Denver -6.5 vs Kansas City --- This one is a toss up to me. If the line hits 7 I would be on the other side, though again, I don't think it will move in that direction. Both teams just look bad now.
Indy -10 @ Baltimore --- Indy has the 2nd ranked offense and 4th ranked defense. Baltimore's offense ranks 26th. Their defense, though very solid against the run, has not been great against the pass. With 6 straight loses and their playoff chances out the window I look for Manning to carve up Baltimore's secondary. Baltimore gave the Pats a good run for their money but their focus may not be there early in the week as they try to get over the loss.
New Orleans -4.5 @ Atlanta ---New Orleans playoff hopes are dwindling. They need to win out. I look for Brees and company to leave Atlanta with a big win. Redman played well in bring the Falcons back last Sunday... but he's not the answer.
I would be very uneasy betting on pitt now that the line has dropped to 11 though I still like them. If the line would drop below 10 that might change.
