Putting the Foot Back in Football Betting
Special team units are too frequently forgotten by the average NFL bettor, but sharps undertand the importance of the kicking game on the gridiron and how it translates to the pay window.
Once upon a time, NFL quarterbacks were real men. They played both offense and defense in the old days, just like everyone else on the team, but they also handled the kicking and/or punting duties well into the 1960s. Sammy Baugh, George Blanda, Sid Luckman, Frank Gifford – real men.
Thanks to job specialization, the whole “punt, pass and kick” ideal has fallen by the wayside, even at the youth levels. And kickers? They’ve become the laughingstock of the NFL, noticeable only when they fail, or when they injure themselves after succeeding like Bill Gramatica did in 2001. It’s a shame, really.
But sharp handicappers know full well the value of punters and kickers to a football team and how the kicking game translates to NFL betting odds.
Even a lousy team like the Cleveland Browns can become your personal license to print money. The Browns finished the 2009 campaign at 5-11, but thanks in part to the best special teams unit in the NFL (as determined by the statheads at Football Outsiders), Cleveland was a glorious 10-6 ATS when all was said and done. Phil Dawson and Billy Cundiff combined to hit 23 of their 25 field-goal attempts. That’s 92 percent; only three teams did better last year.
Accurate kicking is the backbone of a strong special teams unit. Powerful punting is also a plus, and Cleveland has one of the best in the league in Dave Zastudil. The former Ohio Bobcat was brilliant in 2008, cranking out punts at a 45.5-yard clip (42.3 yards net), and his 2009 effort was nearly as impressive at 44.7 yards (39.1 yards net). But the Browns went 7-1 ATS after Zastudil was placed on injured reserve halfway through the season and replaced by Reggie Hodges (39.8 yards per punt, 36.4 yards net), who had already been on the roster of seven other NFL teams since joining the league in 2005.
Quarterbacks are still somewhat more important than punters. Replacing Derek Anderson (42.1 QB rating) with Brady Quinn (67.2 QB rating) was the actual turning point for Cleveland’s fortunes last year. There isn’t much optimism for 2010 with Jake Delhomme (59.4 QB rating for the Carolina Panthers) getting the first crack at the starting job under the regime of new president Mike Holmgren, but having both Dawson and Zastudil on board gives the Browns a leg up in their quest to get 'over' the posted total of 5.5 regular season victories.
Fans of the Oakland Raiders feel much better about 2010 now that Jason Campbell (86.4 QB rating) has arrived to wash out the bad taste left behind by JaMarcus Russell (50.0 QB rating). The Raiders also went 5-11 last year, and like the Browns, they fared much better in the second half of the season after Russell was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski (80.6 QB rating).
But the Raiders also survived the season at 8-8 ATS with considerable help from kicker Sebastian Janikowski (26-of-29) and punter Shane Lechler, who made his fifth Pro Bowl with a league-best average of 51.1 yards (43.9 yards net). Both Janikowski and Lechler are back for 2010, and Oakland is well equipped to go OVER the total of six wins.
Let’s also not forget the importance of the kick off. One of the reasons the Pittsburgh Steelers had so much trouble last year (9-7 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) was the ridiculously good field position they allowed their opponents. Jeff Reed was last in the league in kickoff distance at 60.6 yards a pop, generating only three touchbacks. The Steelers also had major issues with their coverage unit, and there’s some hope that replacing special teams coordinator Bob Ligashesky with Al Everest will make a difference. But Reed is not being replaced – he’s considered too valuable on field goals (27-of-31), especially at tricky Heinz Field, and Pittsburgh isn’t willing to use an extra roster spot on a kickoff specialist.
Since Ben Roethlisberger (100.5 QB rating) will miss at least the first four games to suspension, Reed’s short kicks make the 'under' well worth a look for the Steelers on the total of 8.5 wins. Ah, the thrill of victory – and the agony of the feet.
Special team units are too frequently forgotten by the average NFL bettor, but sharps undertand the importance of the kicking game on the gridiron and how it translates to the pay window.
Once upon a time, NFL quarterbacks were real men. They played both offense and defense in the old days, just like everyone else on the team, but they also handled the kicking and/or punting duties well into the 1960s. Sammy Baugh, George Blanda, Sid Luckman, Frank Gifford – real men.
Thanks to job specialization, the whole “punt, pass and kick” ideal has fallen by the wayside, even at the youth levels. And kickers? They’ve become the laughingstock of the NFL, noticeable only when they fail, or when they injure themselves after succeeding like Bill Gramatica did in 2001. It’s a shame, really.
But sharp handicappers know full well the value of punters and kickers to a football team and how the kicking game translates to NFL betting odds.
Even a lousy team like the Cleveland Browns can become your personal license to print money. The Browns finished the 2009 campaign at 5-11, but thanks in part to the best special teams unit in the NFL (as determined by the statheads at Football Outsiders), Cleveland was a glorious 10-6 ATS when all was said and done. Phil Dawson and Billy Cundiff combined to hit 23 of their 25 field-goal attempts. That’s 92 percent; only three teams did better last year.
Accurate kicking is the backbone of a strong special teams unit. Powerful punting is also a plus, and Cleveland has one of the best in the league in Dave Zastudil. The former Ohio Bobcat was brilliant in 2008, cranking out punts at a 45.5-yard clip (42.3 yards net), and his 2009 effort was nearly as impressive at 44.7 yards (39.1 yards net). But the Browns went 7-1 ATS after Zastudil was placed on injured reserve halfway through the season and replaced by Reggie Hodges (39.8 yards per punt, 36.4 yards net), who had already been on the roster of seven other NFL teams since joining the league in 2005.
Quarterbacks are still somewhat more important than punters. Replacing Derek Anderson (42.1 QB rating) with Brady Quinn (67.2 QB rating) was the actual turning point for Cleveland’s fortunes last year. There isn’t much optimism for 2010 with Jake Delhomme (59.4 QB rating for the Carolina Panthers) getting the first crack at the starting job under the regime of new president Mike Holmgren, but having both Dawson and Zastudil on board gives the Browns a leg up in their quest to get 'over' the posted total of 5.5 regular season victories.
Fans of the Oakland Raiders feel much better about 2010 now that Jason Campbell (86.4 QB rating) has arrived to wash out the bad taste left behind by JaMarcus Russell (50.0 QB rating). The Raiders also went 5-11 last year, and like the Browns, they fared much better in the second half of the season after Russell was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski (80.6 QB rating).
But the Raiders also survived the season at 8-8 ATS with considerable help from kicker Sebastian Janikowski (26-of-29) and punter Shane Lechler, who made his fifth Pro Bowl with a league-best average of 51.1 yards (43.9 yards net). Both Janikowski and Lechler are back for 2010, and Oakland is well equipped to go OVER the total of six wins.
Let’s also not forget the importance of the kick off. One of the reasons the Pittsburgh Steelers had so much trouble last year (9-7 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) was the ridiculously good field position they allowed their opponents. Jeff Reed was last in the league in kickoff distance at 60.6 yards a pop, generating only three touchbacks. The Steelers also had major issues with their coverage unit, and there’s some hope that replacing special teams coordinator Bob Ligashesky with Al Everest will make a difference. But Reed is not being replaced – he’s considered too valuable on field goals (27-of-31), especially at tricky Heinz Field, and Pittsburgh isn’t willing to use an extra roster spot on a kickoff specialist.
Since Ben Roethlisberger (100.5 QB rating) will miss at least the first four games to suspension, Reed’s short kicks make the 'under' well worth a look for the Steelers on the total of 8.5 wins. Ah, the thrill of victory – and the agony of the feet.
Same here i cant wait for NFL also