The responses here are amusingly obtuse for the most part. If "anything can happen," why do you geniuses assume that it goes against you? Randomness can benefit you just as much as it can hurt you.
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can someone post them up?Comment -
ive never heard of any solid evidence that fezz isnt a pro gambler and making a substantial income off itComment -
Fezzick is a fraud
he does not even bet
he tries trio scam peopleComment -
Fezzik does bet....but by his own saying there are many sharper than him when it comes to betting.
but he specializes in contests which he has done very well with over the years.Comment -
I guess if you can get a good price now, then it doesn't hurt to play before any line movement. Three of his plays look good.
Atlanta in a pick makes sense since they are a good team going against a backup QB.
Miami -2 1/2 looks like a good play if you can get it, Buffalo is no good and Henne may have a big year having perhaps the most talented receiver in Marshall.
Arizona/ St Louis under 41.5 appears to be the way to go since the Rams are bad, but the head coach is defensive minded. Arizona no longer has Kurt Warner, so they won't exactly be the greatest show on turf.
I guess I'll make the bad move and try to book that parlay now. Then again, I bet preseason games if I like the quarterback rotations and see how a coach treats pre-season.Comment -
Unless you have reason to thing those "things that can happen" are more likely to go against you than your way, what difference does it make?
If you handicap a game 50/50 and are getting 3 points now, what difference does it make if later information comes (which it will) as long as it's equally likely to hurt or help you?Comment -
No, he doesn't specialize in contests. He's done well in contests. That isn't the same thing.
If I sit down to play cards one night and hit my club flush draws but miss my diamond draws, that doesn't mean I'm good at club flush draws and bad at diamond draws.
Fezziks posted record last year was terrible. Perpetual Czech and others did a complete count of it and he was clearly a losing player. I'm not knocking him, I'm just saying, he hasn't proven anything.
He hasn't even proven ability at NFL betting. NFL sides are so few in number that the results for a few years don't mean much. And he hasn't even done well in the NFL outside the contest.
I'm not knocking Fezz, btw, I have nothing against him and like his forum presence. I'm not knocking him, I'm knocking misunderstanding generally.Comment -
Great point. I think many people need someone to look-up at and invent hero's. Fezzik is garbage around Vegas because when he opens his mouth nothing of substance comes out. He's a joke.
Look at his week 1 play of San Fran. It's okay to take San Fran in week 1 upto -1.5? Stupid play.
Here is a little bit of advice. To win on the road you need to have a good QB. Last year SF was 2-6 on the road. Alex Smith is not the type of QB you want to back as a road favorite. Then consider Seattle is one of the toughest road venues in the NFL and it's a division rival. It's a stupid amateur play.
Stay away from Denver in Wk 1 for the same reason.
Of course Fezzik doesn't have any reasons for his play's. After all, he's a sharp therefore doesn't need any reason. See the trick?
Learn the game and don't believe all the self important loud mouths.Comment -
way to early camp is just ready to openComment -
Look, you do not win all these contests by being a square player. Back-to-back Hilton wins alone should put you into a Hall of Fame, if there was one, and he has won much more. Fezz also very publicly made picks thru FEZdaq and also did very well. Google it if you want more.
These early positions are typical of a modeler; Fezzik isn't one but everything points to the fact that he is working with one. An alliance between an advantage player and a modeler can be very good.Comment -
[quote=Wrecktangle;5517713]Look, you do not win all these contests by being a square player. Back-to-back Hilton wins alone should put you into a Hall of Fame.[quote]
Probably everyone who wins enters the next year. It's always just been a matter of time before someone won twice in a row.
And as for the "squares don't win these" comment: are you kidding? These contests are for squares (because there's no line shopping, there's a fixed number of bets, there's no totals wagering) and touts who enter multiple tickets (Fezzik does that, I believe) hoping to build their tout's resume.
Put 30 people in a room and have them announce their birthdays and most likely two will share a birthday. That fact just shocks you, doesn't it?Comment -
He does not bet
CASE CLOSED
No one would work if he was so good
He is a fukkin scammerComment -
If he can manipulate lines with early picks ( ala RAS), he's OK.
I met him once !
His record is unremarklable.
sort of went tout.
In closing he's not that different from Shrink, but probably smarter/ better overall.Comment -
Always remember anyone selling picks lose because if they did not all they would do is bet them and not hustleComment -
Yeah, what's up with Fezzik? We were wondering why a guy who has posted many losing picks could win so many contests so we calced the odds of the contest wins being chance. Given that the first contest was luck, we then calced the odds of winning the other 10 or 11 contests that he had won. The odds were well over 1 in 10,000 as I recall and the assumptions were pretty conservative.
No doubt the guy has gone tout and his picks certainly seem to have gone to crap. But somehow the guy wins contests like no one else.
...it's a mystery.
...or he releases shitty picks to put folks off following, or he's scalping, or ...
Doesn't Billy Walters do a lot of this shit?
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get em slickComment -
The last 2 years have been just luck.
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I wouldn't early bet (fade) against this stuff, but I think he (Fez) is just taking a position that can change at any time.
Fezzik could wind up on the opposite of this .
Info is useless, really, IMO !Comment -
It does seem a little early but if you are confident that there is value in an early line, why not bet it? Granted the risk of injury is substantially higher but it is as likely to help you as hurt youComment -
You bring up some good points about playing San Fran this early, definitely a pass at this time. Not sure about Denver on road @ Jacksonville is quite the same thing. Orton likely won't be the starter for Denver and Jacksonville probably won't sell out even if it is season opener. Definitely 2 games you want to wait closer to game time if one wants to bet them.Comment -
if someone has a bankroll of say 100,000 dollars, why not bet and then tout as well so you can increase your bankroll and your bottom line profit? unless you have a multi-million dollar bankroll, wouldn't it be smart to bet your plays and then sell them right after you bet them so you can make more money? i think this idea that only losers sell picks is just naive. if you are a winning player, you can make so much money by betting your plays at the best number then selling them to customers so you can make money on your winning bets and then also from your customers who are paying you because they are losers at betting but you are a winnerComment -
Ask him ho much he bets???
Guy is garbage like many have said hereComment -
[QUOTE=Pokerjoe;5520053][quote=Wrecktangle;5517713]Look, you do not win all these contests by being a square player. Back-to-back Hilton wins alone should put you into a Hall of Fame.Poker, if you total up the public events (contests and FEZDAQ) he has a very good record and as someone else has mentioned it is at least 1:10000 against happening by chance (I have it higher than that). If you would care to do a little probability work yourself, you might see it. Being a poker player, I would hope your maths are better than you are showing presently.
Probably everyone who wins enters the next year. It's always just been a matter of time before someone won twice in a row.
And as for the "squares don't win these" comment: are you kidding? These contests are for squares (because there's no line shopping, there's a fixed number of bets, there's no totals wagering) and touts who enter multiple tickets (Fezzik does that, I believe) hoping to build their tout's resume.
Put 30 people in a room and have them announce their birthdays and most likely two will share a birthday. That fact just shocks you, doesn't it?
As to only squares play the Hilton, that is just not the case. Early on all the pros played in them. Granted, once folks did the odds of chance being a winner out of the some 200+ players fewer pros play today, but if you have a model that shows in test above 55%+ it is a +EV situation. I'm pretty sure Fez has this. He talks about "originators" too much to not have access to one or more model trains. And before you come up with the old chestnut, "nobody wins at that rate" I'll push your memory of Count Zero totaling my NFL modeling in the late 90s to 2001 or so where he had me at 58%+ over some 5-6 years of NFL picks.
As to all the "proven" public picks that Fez is a loser, you have no idea what fraction of his total he is posting. If he is an advantage player on his non-contest selections he may only have a long term slight win rate against the market, and it will take a lot of games to "prove" that he is not a long term winning player. PC and that crowd like toting things up, but no one has performed a statistical test of any type on Fez's "selections".
Fez is not a friend of mine, we don't even know each other. I'm simply going off his public record, and it is extraordinary.
As for JJ: stick to making videos, Clown. You are ever so much better at that than this biz and your spreadsheets have enough data to show statistical proof of that.Comment -
I think Fezz takes sports betting to an entirely different level that few can understand or grasp.Comment -
Fezz is a Dr. Bob clone,period. He has advocated him for years and follows and uses the same capping procedures as he does.
In regards to the Hilton contest both years he came from behind to win. As a matter of fact last year he was in the middle, towards the end of the season and came out of no-where to win.
By far the best capper in NFL is ACE-ACE with his 99% system, he actually came in 3rd last year in the Hilton contest, and yes he bets on his owns games.
Fezz has and always will use other peoples money to make a living, but in the end there is nothing wrong with that either, he has done quite well indeed.
You should see his big house that he owns in Vegas !!!!!!
To each their own.........................
pawComment -
I like a couple of thoseComment -
I think its too early for anyone to start capping games. Wait till next month when a couple of preseason games have played out before you start reading into the teams. I mean of course anyone will look good in front of the scout team ...Comment -
he is lucky. anybody with luck can beat 350 bettors back to back. he pulls his picks out of hat. what a lucky bettor he isComment -
I don't like the Atlanta pick. Atlanta can't stop the run. Look at last year's games. And Pittsburgh's defense is much better. If Ben was playing, Pittsburgh would be a 3 or 4 point favorite.Comment
