Green Bay vs Dallas Thoughts

[ChuteBoxe]

This game really messes with my head. lol. Dallas has more points/game, more yards gained, allowed less yards, has the advantage in time of possesion, better red zone numbers, better kicking numbers, and less penalties than Green Bay.

Yet a lot of the other cappers opinions i've valued as a second or third opinion are all going Green Bay, the public is on Green Bay, even the so-called "experts" (best betting record on GB or Dallas) on Wagerline are going Green Bay. The trends on the other hand, are in Dallas' favor SU, but 50% ATS in this situation. I was for Dallas since last Sunday, but then I had to start thinking. Great. lol.

So,will this be Favre's game, because it might be the last shot he has in Irving? Will the Green Bay defense be too much for Romo? What's Woodson's status? I want to, but I don't even know I'm going to touch this game.

[curious]

This game really messes with my head. lol. Dallas has more points/game, more yards gained, allowed less yards, has the advantage in time of possesion, better red zone numbers, better kicking numbers, and less penalties than Green Bay.

Yet a lot of the other cappers opinions i've valued as a second or third opinion are all going Green Bay, the public is on Green Bay, even the so-called "experts" (best betting record on GB or Dallas) on Wagerline are going Green Bay. The trends on the other hand, are in Dallas' favor SU, but 50% ATS in this situation. I was for Dallas since last Sunday, but then I had to start thinking. Great. lol.

So,will this be Favre's game, because it might be the last shot he has in Irving? Will the Green Bay defense be too much for Romo? What's Woodson's status? I want to, but I don't even know I'm going to touch this game.

Green Bay wins this game straight up, one of the best moneyline bets of the year.

[shrax4]

Very much like GB getting all those points here. I see it as a very close game down to the wire. Take the +7

[sikballplaya24]

go for the easyiest money play...

Over Packers/Cowboys 51

[curious]

go for the easyiest money play...

Over Packers/Cowboys 51

Is that for the first quarter?

[McBa1n]

Some dude on the Dennis Miller sports show said that Woodson was ready to play. Don't know if it is true or not.

Last update I got on Woodson was that he's "80%". Al Harris said he thought he would go - as did Nick Barnett. He probably will have to take a shot, though, to play. I subscribe to the premium content on milwaukee's journal-sentinal online - that's the best info they've had all week.

Other injury keys are Johnny Jolly and KGB on the D Line. Colin Cole (probably #6 or #7 on the depth chart for the whole line) was put on IR this week. That's something to watch, too. KGB's injury is to his ankle. Jolly, I THINK, will go (he's the #3 or 3a DT and great run-stopper). KGB looks like he's going to play, also.

Safety is a big concern - Nick Collins isn't ready yet, most likely, although the coach said he will likely start - and his backup, Rouse, who has filled in nicely, might actually miss the game. They brought in Marviel Underwood off the street - he might have to play. Underwood is probably the 2nd worst safety I've seen, after Adam Archuletta (his skill level now, that is). Underwood couldn't tackle anything in preseason or cover it.

Also, it should be noted, that GB will not hold guys out in a marginal situation, even if it means more risk of injury. The 'inside' beat reporters have said that this is their most likely way of playing the game, even if McCarthy isn't saying anything. They have to have this game if they want a strong chance of making the superbowl.

[roasthawg]

Last update I got on Woodson was that he's "80%". Al Harris said he thought he would go - as did Nick Barnett.

i saw harris on sc, i think he was playin with the camera a little...i do think woodson will play based on heart alone, he's a fb player have no doubt about it. i don't think he'll be 100% though, i'd hate to see him get destroyed by to...regardless i'm still on the pack pretty big in this one- i can't seem to leave these big games alone!!!

[Mr Charles 76]

Ok. Just to show you all that my money is where my mouth is I bet the ML for GB at the Red Rock here in Vegas and got it at + 220 for $300.00. Win is 660.00 plus my 300.

[outdrawed]

and the Cowboys are 21st in pass defense!

This is a myth. The Cowboys are allowing 6.39 ypa, good for 6th best in the league. They give up more yards per game because they're allowing the 5th highest pass attempts in the league. Dallas is better than GB at pretty much every phase of the game, except special teams.

[McBa1n]

Ok. Just to show you all that my money is where my mouth is I bet the ML for GB at the Red Rock here in Vegas and got it at + 220 for $300.00. Win is 660.00 plus my 300.

I love Red Rock's sportsbook - that's the one closest to me. Stations do a nice job with their setup.

[joeygats]

ok after looking at this 1 close forget packers secondary they are not as good as u think with that being said this will be all offense take the over gl

[Mr Charles 76]

I love Red Rock's sportsbook - that's the one closest to me. Stations do a nice job with their setup.

You might know me then. I am thin Blonde always wearing LA Dodgers Gear or Cowboys Gear (Usually LA Dodgers) and I sit at one of the middle seats at the bar on the book side. I am there at least 3x per week. Look for the Black 51's hat or ask Justin were "Chuck" is.

I will buy you a beer (with drink tickets of course) if you can find me. I will be there all day Sunday.

[Mr Charles 76]

This is a myth. The Cowboys are allowing 6.39 ypa, good for 6th best in the league. They give up more yards per game because they're allowing the 5th highest pass attempts in the league. Dallas is better than GB at pretty much every phase of the game, except special teams.

First let me say, I am a DIE HARD Cowboys fan, but I can't let that cost me money.

Here is the deal yo. This game is like father and son fighting in the back yard. Favre is Romo 15 yrs ago and vice versa. Check the stats, its true. Romo is still young so he is jittery. Favee's experience will win this game if for no other reason than Romo doesn't think he is ready to kill his hero yet.

Add to that the fact that the Road scored average vs. Road allowed for Gb beats Dallas' home scored vs. home allowed average, The ATS average favors GB and the power charts favor GB and you have a situation where tony romo, as great as he is and as great as he will become, is not ready to beat GB (More importantly Brett Favre) as long as both corners are playing for GB (which the are).

Bottom line = GB by 1 to 3. Book it Baby! We can talk more on Friday if you bother to log on.

[McBa1n]

Haha, cool man. I'm the low key 'overserved' guy in the Ahman Green jersey... I usually only go there to play cards and stay at home for football. But if I go out to watch a game, that's where I go. I usually sit at a table by the bar on the enclosed area up there - book side. I know exactly where you're talking about. I only go there a couple times/month now, though. Usually when company is in town or a game I want to watch that I can't get on direct tv.

[Sportsgirl]

I love the dynamic duo of non-contributors we have in MJFtheGenius (a "genius" who has yet to weigh in his opinion on this topic but has still managed to flame two others) and Destroyer (whose favorite comment is LOL).

If you guys are going to post solely for the purpose of increasing your post count, could you at least share a thought that you didn't pull out of your ass?

Just a suggesstion.

Mr. Charles - I think I just got a wee crush on you

[Sportsgirl]

Quote:
Originally Posted by icsky3
This may be Farves last time to take down Dallas IN dallas. He will have one of his best games ever against this team and win. If they dont win.... they'll cover heheh.:[/QUOTE]

What a great in depth analysis of the game, that really breaksdown both teams.

It actually is a better analysis than you'd think. With talent being what it is to even be a player in the NFL, emotion can never be discounted and is a much bigger factor in a team winning than you might think.

Emotion is running high with Green Bay. They are the "charmed team" this season in the NFL and I think they win this one SU.

[The Seer]

It actually is a better analysis than you'd think. With talent being what it is to even be a player in the NFL, emotion can never be discounted and is a much bigger factor in a team winning than you might think.

Emotion is running high with Green Bay. They are the "charmed team" this season in the NFL and I think they win this one SU.

I understand that. With everyone in the NFL being a professional athlete, emotion is very underrated in it's application to handicapping. So to counterpoint what you said: Dallas knows they need this game for home field advantage in the playoffs. I don't think they're in awe like the media is portraying it. They'll be focused.

[Sportsgirl]

With everyone in the NFL being a professional athlete, emotion is very underrated in it's application to handicapping. So to counterpoint what you said: Dallas knows they need this game for home field advantage in the playoffs. I don't think they're in awe like the media is portraying it. They'll be focused.

I agree with you completely - on your first sentence, that is! I know Dallas needs this game, but "needing the game" and having a completely unexpected and emotionally-charged season as the Packers have had makes me extremely reluctant to pick against them. Just glad my Steelers aren't playing them!
Good luck!

[outdrawed]

First let me say, I am a DIE HARD Cowboys fan, but I can't let that cost me money.

Here is the deal yo. This game is like father and son fighting in the back yard. Favre is Romo 15 yrs ago and vice versa. Check the stats, its true. Romo is still young so he is jittery. Favee's experience will win this game if for no other reason than Romo doesn't think he is ready to kill his hero yet.

Add to that the fact that the Road scored average vs. Road allowed for Gb beats Dallas' home scored vs. home allowed average, The ATS average favors GB and the power charts favor GB and you have a situation where tony romo, as great as he is and as great as he will become, is not ready to beat GB (More importantly Brett Favre) as long as both corners are playing for GB (which the are).

Bottom line = GB by 1 to 3. Book it Baby! We can talk more on Friday if you bother to log on.

I'll be here, but only because I'm smart enough to know one game isn't an indication on your skill at picking games. There's a reason the best cappers are only at 60%.

Also, if you could show me where I said I bet on the Cowboys, that would be sweet. Your logic is outstanding. I said the Cowboys pass defense is better than people think because people only look at ypg. If you give me 2000 snaps against the Cowboys defense, I'm pretty sure I could manage more yards than Favre could with 1 snap. It's the same idea.

The fact is, the Cowboys ARE better than the Packers in pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, and rush defense, or at the very least, have PLAYED better than the Packers in each of those categories. (Although, interestingly enough, FO has Favre as the better QB over the course of the season. I'm not sure how that works out.)

That all being said, were the line movement (moving in GB's favor DESPITE the majority of public money being on the Packers) not totally perplexing, I would absolutely love GB +7. Yes, Dallas is better than GB at all phases, but they're not significantly better. Dallas and GB are pretty much mirror images of each other. Great pass offense (#2 and #3 respectively), decent rush offense (#6 and #9), great rush defense (#5 and #7), and decent pass defense (#7 and #13).

But like I said about the line, I don't understand why the books moved it to push the 7, when people were already taking GB +6.5. I'm a novice capper, and my first three weeks of betting football games have been, for the most part, trying to analyze the teams and matchups, but the one thing I've learned is if something doesn't make sense, and the side you're on is the side everyone is on, and your side is getting better and better odds, you're probably in trouble.

Anyways, if GB wins, I'll congratulate you tomorrow on a big win, but I won't be anymore convinced you know what you're doing than I am now. (Not an insult, I don't know if you know what you're doing right now or not, I'm just saying tonight's game won't change my opinion). I ended up hedging my Pack +7 (-115) with Dallas -275, so I'm hoping for another game-winning field goal from Nick Folk.

[Mr Handicapable]

Where do you find these numbers? GB is 32nd in rushing...not 9th and GB is 2nd in passing...Dallas is 5th! Either way...GB is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. I think the Dallas ground game is overrated at #11...they mainly run Barber in the 2nd half to run the clock with a big lead....they definitely don't control the game with their running game. GB on the other hand is running the ball w/more conviction w/Ryan Grant...look for Grant to pickup 80 yds or so to give Favre some balance! Ints are about equal if you throw out Romo's disaster in Buffalo! I see a 3-4 point game determined in the 4th quarter. Having Charles Woodson available would definitely be huge but I think GB covers either way!

[SBR Lou]

I think the Dallas ground game is overrated at #11...they mainly run Barber in the 2nd half to run the clock with a big lead....they definitely don't control the game with their running game.

That's what their problem is. They do not get him involved early enough. They probably feel with his sheer power and physicality as a runner that its a good match up having him rush into a worn down defense later in the game. I think the guy's physical enough to do it in the first half too.

[travismcilrath]

to many injuries for green bay to win

[Teasem]

Tough game to call...slight lean to Dallas. if it goes down to -6.5 I'll play Dallas for sure. Right now, the public is all over Green Bay. It's a terrible sign if the public is on a dog in an NFL game...very contrary to betting behavior.

This is correct

[jsala007]

Everyone is wrong!!!

Green Bay will get smashed tonight, everyone is assuming that they're getting a value with this line, but it's at 7 to trick you, if it was a few points less everyone would be on Dallas, but since its at 7 nobody thinks Dallas will cover. Dallas is too good not to destroy a banged up GB defense while being at home. Dallas is flat out the better team and will cover easily, especially if they jump ahead early on.

[outdrawed]

"Where do you find these numbers? GB is 32nd in rushing...not 9th and GB is 2nd in passing...Dallas is 5th! "

I'm going by DVOA. Go to www.footballoutsiders.com to find this. You're using very unreliable numbers. GB is 32nd in rushing yards per game, but that's because they throw far more often than they run. I'm actually surprised DVOA has them at 9th, given they're only averaging 3.6 ypc. I imagine it has something to do with playing good rush defenses. They've played Minnesota (#3) twice, NY (#4), Chicago (#9), Detroit (#10), KC (#13), Philly (#15), and Wash (#16). Only SD, Carolina and Denver are outside the top half. Since DVOA is based heavily on strength of schedule, GB's rushing efficiency is higher than if they had played Oakland 11 times.

Also, I believe those numbers are also weighted to give more relevance to games in the near past. After Week 10, I think Week 1 is ignored completely, Week 2 matters very little, and the importance increases from there. As we all know, GB has had itself a rushing resurgence in the past few weeks, and that should only continue with games against Oakland and St. Louis lurking.

[Sportsgirl]

GB is 32nd in rushing...not 9th and GB is 2nd in passing...Dallas is 5th! "

NFL.com has these same stats.

[beaneaters]

I took Dallas at -6.5. I think both secondaries rank about the same, but Dallas has a special weapon in Witten. Cowboys also have a more proven run game, and home field. And while they can play down to some opponents, they definitely won't be caught off guard by anything Favre brings. Overall, I just think Dallas is the better team.

[WhoDEY]

Ok I'm new to this site and I like the fact that there are "some" people that seem like they know there S@#T. I have been playing the games for about ten years.

Take Dallas -7 and the Under 51.5

GB Def. if not where it has been (INJ) and i feel that Brett to do for a crash game.

[outdrawed]

NFL.com has these same stats.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I'm well aware what NFL.com says. It also says Miami is 3rd in pass defense which is really just too funny.

Read the rest of my post. The stats he was using are, for the most part, meaningless.

[alexda[]]

I am a HUGE Dallas fan but even I have to admit this line is a trick. Brett Favre is playing as good as ever and Tony is still young and jittery at times. As an advanced Handicapper I must go with GB to win out right. The book only places this line because they know that if they go any less they will get hammered when GB wins. I will say it again, Greenbay wins outright. ML GB is a good bet. I like the over too but not as much as the ML on GB.

seems like the publics on gb tho with 61% ( twominutewarning-nfl tracker). and isnt your reasoning backwards because if the books thought gb was going to win they would have made the line lower so that more ppl would bet on dallas. just seems too good to be true to me with gb being 8-0 ats on the road and usually too good to be true is just that. favre also does have a bad history with dallas

[Mr Charles 76]

Thanks Sportsgirl.....

Mr. Charles - I think I just got a wee crush on you

I crush you too.

[Sportsgirl]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I'm well aware what NFL.com says. It also says Miami is 3rd in pass defense which is really just too funny.

Read the rest of my post. The stats he was using are, for the most part, meaningless.

I misread your post ... just saw the part where you asked, "Where do you find these numbers ..." and I was answering.

[MJFtheGenius]

Did I hurt your feelings.

Look at the bright side. One of us is going to have alot to say to the other around 10:30 PST tonight.

See ya then.

Yea I do remember the game with Hall, TO had a good game. i also rememeber the last time TO went against Al Harris, he had a career game. I also dont remember when the 3rd/4th best qb in the league was supposed to throw at least 2 INT's. Who cares if Romo is nervous, every athlete is nervous when they step on to the field/court. I played bball and soccer, still play soccer for college and got nervous everytime I went out there, took a shit before every ****in game, its how it is.

[outdrawed]

Ah, cool. No worries then.

[alexda[]]

im pretty sure mjf is right about your fourth line in your original post being wrong