Why do football totals only drop a couple points for bad weather?

big joe 1212 · 06-30-10, 10:05 PM

sometimes it makes for more turnovers which create a lot of points

slacker00 · 07-01-10, 05:26 AM

Different kinds of bad weather has different effects. I'd say that snow actually INCREASES the total, for example. Also, one must take into account the amount of wind or rain because slight rain doesn't really affect anything or maybe even INCREASES the total due to similar effects to snow, but if there's enough rain to affect the turf and the mud is deep enough it can decrease. At the very least, there must be a more careful examination of the exact description of weather before assessing a total. Personally, I take it on a game by game basis because there aren't a lot of absolute rules about weather. Weather capping is a fine art and also very profitable because so many squares will simply get it wrong.

Club · 07-01-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

Different kinds of bad weather has different effects. I'd say that snow actually INCREASES the total, for example. Also, one must take into account the amount of wind or rain because slight rain doesn't really affect anything or maybe even INCREASES the total due to similar effects to snow, but if there's enough rain to affect the turf and the mud is deep enough it can decrease. At the very least, there must be a more careful examination of the exact description of weather before assessing a total. Personally, I take it on a game by game basis because there aren't a lot of absolute rules about weather. Weather capping is a fine art and also very profitable because so many squares will simply get it wrong.

Good post. Even though it isn't rocket science, most gamblers screw up weather betting over and over. I love to see a game with rain or snow (but no significant wind) and watch the total go down. Rain or snow either does nothing or helps the over and you can often pick up a free point or two on the total. The only time I bet under due to weather is when the winds are very heavy so that it will seriously affect the passing and kicking games or the grass field is in such bad shaope no one can get any footing, like that Pitt/Miami game a while back but those games are very rare.

pavyracer · 07-01-10, 10:12 AM

Rain might actually help the total go up. Wind always brings the total down. And the snow has to be combined with extreme cold to bring the total down.

Onefreedm1nd · 07-01-10, 10:25 AM

Wind definatly hurts scoring but rain/snow might actually favor the offense as the defense has to react.

awao6rayat · 07-01-10, 11:07 AM

Yeah weather is a huge factor some teams play better in the snow then other

iwantcougars · 07-01-10, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by awao6rayat

Yeah weather is a huge factor some teams play better in the snow then other

This, also have in mind a total passing team will still air the ball even when the weather is bad, also the punts/kickoffs travel less, so there are more chances of scoring

SportNut · 07-01-10, 01:20 PM

I do like to wager on bad weather...

BGboothA · 07-01-10, 03:19 PM

yeah with the right offense it can effect bad weather. A dome team like Indy going into bad weather is a bigger deal than say NE going into bad weather.

jayc88 · 07-01-10, 04:21 PM

if you see a nfl total drop by 6+ points you go the other way ,
nfl totals are relatively sharp, market movements like that are mostly overractions due to bad weather

jayc88 · 07-01-10, 04:23 PM

i only remember one game from the last season where the patriots played against the titans i think and the total dropped like crazy because of snow
pats alone covered the over in the first half , won't work like that every time but going against these type of line movements is a rare occasion where you easily find a +ev bet in the nfl

THE PROFIT · 07-01-10, 04:28 PM

Football is an offensive game, which means points will be scored. The offense has the advantage, regardless of the weather, injuries, etc...

The offense knows what they plan to do to achieve their goal of scoring points on every possession. The defense has to react & adjust & compensate for a planned attack. That's tough to do

jjgold · 07-01-10, 05:19 PM

I think pouring rain might keep a total lower
Cold weather not really
Wind/snow totals are lower but it does not seem to affect game

lTheShadowl · 07-01-10, 05:37 PM

sloppy conditions = sloppy play = many turnovers = can lead to easy scores

GunShard · 07-01-10, 07:09 PM

The heavy snow last season on the Titans vs Patriots game.

The Patriots won 59-0.

Rig · 07-01-10, 08:13 PM

it leads to easy scores slips, mistakes, and POINTS

BetWeather · 07-02-10, 05:41 AM

Slacker00 you may change yr mind after seeing this NLF 1861 Game Weather Study!

Check out this study of 1861 NFL games to see some facts
on Rain, Wind and Snow effect on totals.

http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

Rain and snow do cause NFL games to have lower scores.

Event
Games
PPG
All NFL Games
1,861
42.0
Dome Games
344
45.7
Outdoor Games
1,473
41.4
Rain or snow
219
37.9
*Flurries
7
39.4
*Light Snow
11
48.5
*Snow
13
35.9
*Chance Rain
83
37.2
*Light Rain
44
37.8
*Rain
61
37.2
Windy conditions do cause NFL games to have lower scores.
Wind(mph)
Games
PPG
0
119
43.6
1-4
158
42.2
5-9
622
41.8
10-14
342
41.2
15-19
153
40.2
20-24
60
37.0
25-29
14
33.6
30+
3
23. Crosswinds do cause much lower scores than winds going
from end zone to end zone.
Event
Games
PPG
Winds of 20+ mph-no crosswind
54
37.0
Winds of 20+-crosswind
17
31.5

HoulihansTX · 07-02-10, 07:06 AM

Middles, Middles Middles

Books have a lot of exposure, when totals are put out on Sunday night. Then the weather changes from good to inclement. They cant change to total by 10 points b/c of the exposure a book would have with possible middles.

MC PICKS · 07-02-10, 07:43 AM

Snow and rain have very little affect on the outcome of a game. The wind is they key. Heavy winds, bet the under.

BetWeather · 07-02-10, 08:08 AM

Have looked at this 1861 Game NFL study

Originally posted by GunShard

The heavy snow last season on the Titans vs Patriots game.

The Patriots won 59-0.

One game does not a study make!
And right... the Titans did not score a single point.

New study of 1861 Games shows ANY bad weather makes huge difference!

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Many of you have stated or believe that mildly bad weather does not
effect football games. Think again...

Just found an interesting study of 1861 NFL games that shows that almost any bad weather greatly effects totals.

In many cases drastically. This study doesn't even factor in "Passing Teams"
which of course have a much harder time in bad weather.

It does seem to show that all football teams do worse in bad weather.

Here is the link.

http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

Here are some sample "facts" from the study.
In 1861 games average Points Per Game was 42.0
- When there was "Rain or Snow" average total was just 37.
- With cross winds totals dropped to as low as 31.

"Passing" college teams should be hugely effected.... which interests me greatly.
What is your Opinion?[/COLOR]

BetWeather · 07-02-10, 08:13 AM

Hello ** Picks!

Originally posted by MC PICKS

Snow and rain have very little affect on the outcome of a game. The wind is they key. Heavy winds, bet the under.

New study of 1861 Games shows ANY bad weather makes huge difference!

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Many of you have stated or believe that mildly bad weather does not
effect football games. Think again...

It does seem to show that all football teams do worse in bad weather.

Here is the link.

http://footballplayergrades.com/NFLWeatherStudy.html

Here are some sample "facts" from the study.
In 1861 games average Points Per Game was 42.0
- When there was "Rain or Snow" average total was just 37.
- With cross winds totals dropped to as low as 31.

"Passing" college teams should be hugely effected.... which interests me greatly.
What is your Opinion?[/COLOR]