NFL Week 12: Thursday's Play

[buffettgambler]

Lions/Packers Under 47.5
When people think of either team, the first thought that comes to mind is both team’s dangerous passing games and the ability of both offenses to put up a lot of points on the board. What fails to get mentioned is the solid productivity of both defenses, which have been flying under the radar all season. It is no surprise that in a situation like the one mentioned, there exists value on the Under.

With all the attention surrounding Favre in Green Bay, the Packers solid defense has not been getting the credit they deserve. They have been solid since the start of the season, and in fact have been showing signs of getting progressively better. They have allowed 17 points in their last two games, and have not allowed more than 20 points in four of their last five games. This does not bode well for a Lions offense that has been quietly getting progressively worse, and have actually been in a rut of late. Teams are better prepared in stopping their passing attack compared to earlier in the season, while the Lions continue to find difficulties putting up points commensurate to their yards gained. Fundamentally speaking, they Packers defense poses a match up problem for the Lions, as they have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league to counter the Lions receiving threats, while their solid pass rush can take advantage of a slumping line. Expect the Lions to also be more committed to a running game this time around, as they once again found out last week that employing one dimensional passing attack have not paid off dividends for them. Simply put, I am expecting the Lions to move the ball decently, but points for them will come at a premium.

The Lions defense has also been playing well, and have yet to show signs of slowdown, coming off a solid outing against a dangerous Giants offense, which followed recent solid outings against the Broncos, Bucs and Bears. Their ability to create turnovers has also allowed their opponents yards to not commensurate their points on the board. Although the Packers are currently perceived as one of the hotter offenses in the league, the fact that they played against anemic offenses that failed to stay on the field allowed them to have more opportunities to make things happen. Allowing Favre to face five sub par pass defenses in his last seven games has also enabled him to appear super human. Although the Packers have some fundamental advantages against the Lions defense, expect some regression out of their unit this time around, as they face a defense better suited in curtailing their strengths. The Packers will be able to put up a decent amount of points in the board, but recent performances of reaching 20’s should not be deemed probable.

Although both offenses are dangerous and pass oriented, I feel such variables are fully reflected in the line. What I don’t feel is getting the credit deserved is both teams defenses that have been playing well all season. In my opinion, this game should reach the 40’s, but the artificial inflation (Public betting day and misperception of both teams being much better on the offensive side of the ball) has created value on the Under.

[buffettgambler]

Adding a play

Jets/Cowboys Under 47.5
(Recommend waiting until kickoff before placing the before in expectations for a better price)

With the health status of two solid starting receivers more definitive, there has now become enough value to warrant a play on the Under. Once again, it appears bookmakers are inflating the total in this game in expectation for heavy volume public bettors, and I will gladly go the other way.

Although the Jets have been playing much better in their last three games, the success has predominantly come from a substantially improved defensive quality of play and some solid special team’s plays that should not be deemed sustainable on a game by game basis to help out their still struggling offense. Although Clemens got some high praise for beating the Steelers last week, too much credit has been going his way, as completing 14 for 31 passes and getting sacked seven times does not deem well against having to go up against a potent defense on the road. The Jets know quite well that they have no chance of staying in this game if it turns out to be a shootout. The past couple of years, they have been one of the better teams at employing game plans that slow the tempo of the game down substantially. Although the Cowboys hold a definitive advantage on defense, the Jets conservative, slow tempo game plan that lacks big play ability should favor the Under regardless. The absence of Coles should hurt significantly, as he is their best offensive weapon. I am not expecting anything more than low digit points out of the Jets, making it hard for a total set this high to go Over the posted line.

Although the Cowboys have consistently proved betting the Under in their games is a dangerous proposition, it seems that the line has more than compensated for their Over trend, as hanging high 40’s no matter their opponent and predicted fundamental match up appear to give opportunity for bettors seeking value on the Unders in games. The Jets defense has been struggling this year, yet has been getting progressively better, and are coming off three straight solid performances, including their last two against respectable offenses. The biggest improvement has defiantly been the play of their pass defense, while their suspect run defense still encourages opponents to employ a heavy dose of running. If the Cowboys do elect to come out passing aggressively and it become successful, don’t expect such a game plan to last long, as the Jets lack the offense to keep pace, thus putting the Cowboys in a position to eat up clock early on. With Crayton out, an expected early comfortable lead, and a big game next Thursday possibly influencing a curtailment of openness in their playbook should lower the expected point total and aggressiveness of a dangerous Cowboys offense.