Lions ML for Thanksgiving.

[imgv94]

I'm strongly considering this and the 3.5 points.

Packers have had problems in Detroit before and the Lions won't lose two in a row @ Home will they?

[pico]

I'm strongly considering this and the 3.5 points.

Packers have had problems in Detroit before and the Lions won't lose two in a row @ Home will they?

there are bunch of other posters who thinks packers will blow them out. but i am a man of superstitution, i think there is something magical about thanksgiving day game in detroit. so i think lions ml might be a good bet here.

[imgv94]

This is one of the "few" times I think the books know what they are doing with this line.

I'm predicting this a trap game.

[dwaechte]

I think the Packers show up ready to go and we get a very solid game. Detroit is a solid team, but they've got more holes than GB.

I don't think they're going to catch Favre on an off-game, and I don't see them being able to stop him if he's playing at the top of his game.

[azgrande18]

I think this game will go over with the Packers winning.

[mark wahlberg]

love the packers here lions are a fraud dude

[Doc JS]

Packers have had problems in Detroit before

Yes, the Packers and Brett have had problems in most domed stadiums in the past.

and the Lions won't lose two in a row @ Home will they?

Gabe, I'm not saying the Lions will lose. I'm saying this is how they could lose.

The Lions are not good defensively. They're 26th in the NFL in total defesne giving up 354.7 yards/game. They are 30th in pass defense at 256.7 yards/game.

Green Bay is 4th in the NFL in total offense at 376.2. And guess who is first in the NFL in passing offense? That's right! The Green Bay Packers are first in the NFL in passing offense at 298.8 yards/game.

So, the thing that the Lions are worst at just happens to be the thing the Packers are best at.

One of the few things the Lions are good at defensively is interceptions. They're second in the NFL with 15 INT's this season. And a +7 in turnover differential.

Here's how the Lions win:
If the Lions can get pressure on Brett and cause him to throw a couple up for grabs (as Brett will from time to time). Create a couple of defensive/special team touchdowns or short field opportunities for their offense then they can win the game.

Otherwise 3.5 points may not be enough for the Lions.

Doc JS

[mark wahlberg]

exactly what doc js said

[Doc JS]

I'm predicting this a trap game.

Gabe,
It is certainly a could be a trap game if Green Bay rolls into Detroit thinking about Dallas instead of the Lions.

But it's a division game. It's on Thanksgiving Day. Historically, that has been a big deal. The Packers know they'll get the Lions best shot on Turkey Day. The Packer coach will certainly be reminding them that it could be a trap game.

So, while it has the potential to be a trap game, I'm not sure if that will actually be the case come Thursday.

Doc JS

[The Seer]

Throw out the stats in this game and look for Detroit to win outright.

[Doc JS]

Throw out the stats in this game and look for Detroit to win outright.

Based on what?

I'm not saying the Lions can't win or cover. A cover wouldn't surprise me at all and an outright win is not out of the question. But what are you basing this on???

FWIW, I think the line is pretty close to right. GB -3.5

Doc

[cartay]

I just keep waiting for the dream to end for Favre/Green Bay - I mean, do we really think they're 9-1 good? Thanksgiving in Detroit would seem to be the ideal setup for a loss

[Doc JS]

I just keep waiting for the dream to end for Favre/Green Bay - I mean, do we really think they're 9-1 good?

Philadelphia Eagles W, 16-13
@ New York Giants W, 35-13
San Diego Chargers W, 31-24
@ Minnesota Vikings W, 23-16
Chicago Bears L, 20-27
Washington Redskins W, 17-14
@ Denver Broncos W, 19-13
@ Kansas City Chiefs W, 33-22
Minnesota Vikings W, 34-0
Carolina Panthers W, 31-17

When you look at who the Packers have played you can make the following arguments:
1. They haven't played the elite of the NFL. Now, who is "elite" other than New England is another question for another day.

2, You can also argue that they got teams at the "right time" - like the NY Giants. The Giants were a defensive mess when GB hung 35 on them in the second game of the season.

3. You can argue that they got teams who were supposed to be good but have turned out to be not so good - like San Diego.

At the end of the day, as the Big Tuna said: You are what your record says you are. The Green Bay Packers are 9-1. They'll get the opportunity in about ten days when they tangle with Dallas to prove they really are as good as their record.

Doc

[The Seer]

Based on what?

I'm not saying the Lions can't win or cover. A cover wouldn't surprise me at all and an outright win is not out of the question. But what are you basing this on???

FWIW, I think the line is pretty close to right. GB -3.5

Doc

It is mostly a gut feeling with this one. However, it is a dome game for Farve. I also like the fact that this Detroit team can score and they are at home. Although GB has played on Thanksgiving before, it is a pain in the ass for a team to get ready for another and travel in 3 days time.

[dwaechte]

Philadelphia Eagles W, 16-13
@ New York Giants W, 35-13
San Diego Chargers W, 31-24
@ Minnesota Vikings W, 23-16
Chicago Bears L, 20-27
Washington Redskins W, 17-14
@ Denver Broncos W, 19-13
@ Kansas City Chiefs W, 33-22
Minnesota Vikings W, 34-0
Carolina Panthers W, 31-17

When you look at who the Packers have played you can make the following arguments:
1. They haven't played the elite of the NFL. Now, who is "elite" other than New England is another question for another day.

2, You can also argue that they got teams at the "right time" - like the NY Giants. The Giants were a defensive mess when GB hung 35 on them in the second game of the season.

3. You can argue that they got teams who were supposed to be good but have turned out to be not so good - like San Diego.

At the end of the day, as the Big Tuna said: You are what your record says you are. The Green Bay Packers are 9-1. They'll get the opportunity in about ten days when they tangle with Dallas to prove they really are as good as their record.

Doc

I certainly don't buy the "you are what your record is" theory. If this was the case, we could use the gravely unrealistic power rankings given by ESPN to tell how good teams are.

But in this case, I can certainly agree the Packers deserve their record. Have they won a really impressive game? No, but they haven't had the chance as you say. I think they've clearly proved themselves to be a top-5 team capable of beating most teams in the league.

You could even argue they are closer to deserving a 10-0 record than an 8-2 record, as they outplayed Chicago in that loss and haven't really gotten all that lucky or been outplayed by anyone else.

They have a great defense, and an offense that can move the chains, get field position, and score an adequate amount of points.

[pavyracer]

Play the over, grab a turkey drumstick and a cold beer and enjoy the game.

[shaunovery]

take the points and the lions this week, martz got it wrong on sunday running the ball in the 1st half in the 2nd decided to air it out and could have won, packers not a great pass defense, lions +3.5 for me

[Thomasha7]

The pack win big like they have been doing as of late. They are starting to finally get a bit of a running game. And with Farvre being able to pass, I say they win by at least 14. IMO.

[Dark Horse]

I have the Lions in a 104-81 ATS situation; a 56% shot to cover.

[GatorFan]

No play for me on this game. Good luck to you all guys

[SBR Lou]

Lions give up too many sacks, aren't going to be able to run the ball enough, just not a good match for them. The fact that its Thanksgiving is even more reason to believe the Pack won't look ahead. I'm not saying this is going to be a blowout type game, but IMO the Packers aren't going to relinquish the lead.

[durito]

I have the Lions in a 104-81 ATS situation; a 56% shot to cover.

I'm a big user of situational analysis myself, so I'm not questioning that.

But, an angle that's hit 56% in the past, can hardly be expected to hit 56% in the future. I've come across plenty of angles that are 75%+, but I certainly don't expect them to cover at that rate going forward.

[MJFtheGenius]

love the packers here lions are a fraud dude

the packers are the fraud here

[mgcolby]

Can we really use strength of schedule or the "who have they played" card this year with any team? Only 12 teams are over .500 this season, that means 20 teams, nearly 2/3 of the league are at .500 or below.

[stump]

I'm taking the Lions +3.5 here, I'd like to take the ML, but gonna play it safer and take the pts

[durito]

i think there is something magical about thanksgiving day game in detroit.

lions are 11-12 ATS since 1985 on thanksgiving

[Dark Horse]

A pass for me. Could only bet Lions, but scared off by GB's ATS record so far.

[area51steve]

I'm strongly considering this and the 3.5 points.

Packers have had problems in Detroit before and the Lions won't lose two in a row @ Home will they?

I like the Lions to win the game as well but thats only because i'm a fan. I've been to many thanksgiving day games in Detroit and I can tell you anything can happen. GB is the toughest team they will have played so far and it comes on a short week off of a loss. It's best to take the 3.5 points just in case. I hope the GB gets their asses handed to em.. Go Lions!!!!

[jvsan12]

it don't matter about what happened in the past.. right now the packers are looking better and better every week and the lions are looking worse. packers can throw the ball and the lions can't stop the pass. the lions can't rush the ball and the packers can stop the rush. the PACKERS will win straight up

[pokernut9999]

GB has only won 13 of their last 14 going back to last year. Hard to call them a fraud.

[mgcolby]

it don't matter about what happened in the past.. right now the packers are looking better and better every week and the lions are looking worse. packers can throw the ball and the lions can't stop the pass. the lions can't rush the ball and the packers can stop the rush. the PACKERS will win straight up

The Lions can throw the ball and the Packers can't stop the pass. Both teams can throw it and both teams suck against the pass. I think the over is the play. I lean towards the Pack and maybe by tomorrow I will sell myself on them. But I really like the over.

[WestsidePete]

GB has only won 13 of their last 14 going back to last year. Hard to call them a fraud.

They're not a fraud but I think they become average tomorrow and lose...

[SBR Lou]

The Lions can throw the ball and the Packers can't stop the pass.

WTF are you talking about? The Packers are giving up 217 yds per game through the air, that's respectable. They have very good corners. Saying they can't stop the pass and are so vulnerable against the pass seems odd.

[MJFtheGenius]

GB has only won 13 of their last 14 going back to last year. Hard to call them a fraud.

I just did it, it's a 16 game season, not 10.

[imgv94]

WTF are you talking about? The Packers are giving up 217 yds per game through the air, that's respectable. They have very good corners. Saying they can't stop the pass and are so vulnerable against the pass seems odd.

Very,Very good corners. That was one of the reasons I liked them @ +6550 to win the SB.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/25429-making-bold-prediction-superbowl-42-a.html