A slave to boredom, I have a full slate of games this week. I'm probably breaking a cardinal rule of sports betting, but the NFL is one of the few games I've fared well at.
Two units
New England -15.5
Indianapolis -14.5
Cleveland -2.5
I'm a little concerned about giving up the big numbers, but you have to go where the talent lies:
New England off a bye, and Buffalo without Lynch, sealed that game for me.
Indy off two losses and KC with a rookie QB sealed the other. And looking back, I'm 8-2 when I spot teams nine points or more this season.
The Cleveland bet is as much about Baltimore's offence as it is about the Browns.
One Unit
Jacksonville -3. I'm a Chargers fan, but any team that goes on the road and allows Minnesota to hang 35 on them can't be trusted. And what will SD have left in the tank after surviving Indy last week? Jaguars D can make things tough for Rivers.
Oakland +5.5. The Raiders have been competitive on the road, and Minnesota is just too one-dimensional. Take away Peterson, and add in the Culpepper revenge factor, and you have to like the chances of the underdog. I've managed to go 6-1 this season picking road dogs, which simply means I should be picking more. (I think the Raiders are also worth a moneyline bet.)
NY Giants -3. Eli Manning is a bum, but he's a bum going against the Lions' 30th ranked pass defence. That's the difference, along with the Giants ability to cause problems with the pass rush. I like Kitna, but without a running game, he'll be on the run all day.
Tampa Bay -3. I like that they are off a bye, and lost two games to Atlanta last year. I'm a little leary about this pick, but don't think the Falcons are good enough to win three straight.
San Francisco +3. The 49ers got embarrassed on national TV by Seattle, I think the team has more confidence in Dilfer at this point, and St. Louis has got their win out of the way. And the Rams are a slower team on the grass.
Washington +11.5. Just too many points for an intense divisional rivalry. There have only been three games decided by double digits between these teams since 2001, and besides, the Redskins have been alternating wins and losses since week two.
Miami +10. Philadelphia shouldn't be spotting any team 10 points, even an 0-9 squad starting a rookie QB. The Dolphins have enough close calls, and will play that much harder with a rookie at the controls. Phillie is just too Jekyll and Hyde. And I've been lucky picking road dogs.
Seattle -5.5. Going with the revenge factor, two losses to Chicago last season, and the fact Chicago is making a second straight trip to the west coast. Seattle appears to be finding its offensive stride, and this ain't the Bears defence of yesteryear.
Over-unders (12-16 on the season).
Cleveland/Baltimore under 43.5
StLouis/San Fran under 39.5
Oakland/Minnesota under 36
For the record, I'll also be taking Tennessee on Monday, but am hoping the line moves back to three points. Snooze you lose, I guess.
Good luck to everyone today.
Two units
New England -15.5
Indianapolis -14.5
Cleveland -2.5
I'm a little concerned about giving up the big numbers, but you have to go where the talent lies:
New England off a bye, and Buffalo without Lynch, sealed that game for me.
Indy off two losses and KC with a rookie QB sealed the other. And looking back, I'm 8-2 when I spot teams nine points or more this season.
The Cleveland bet is as much about Baltimore's offence as it is about the Browns.
One Unit
Jacksonville -3. I'm a Chargers fan, but any team that goes on the road and allows Minnesota to hang 35 on them can't be trusted. And what will SD have left in the tank after surviving Indy last week? Jaguars D can make things tough for Rivers.
Oakland +5.5. The Raiders have been competitive on the road, and Minnesota is just too one-dimensional. Take away Peterson, and add in the Culpepper revenge factor, and you have to like the chances of the underdog. I've managed to go 6-1 this season picking road dogs, which simply means I should be picking more. (I think the Raiders are also worth a moneyline bet.)
NY Giants -3. Eli Manning is a bum, but he's a bum going against the Lions' 30th ranked pass defence. That's the difference, along with the Giants ability to cause problems with the pass rush. I like Kitna, but without a running game, he'll be on the run all day.
Tampa Bay -3. I like that they are off a bye, and lost two games to Atlanta last year. I'm a little leary about this pick, but don't think the Falcons are good enough to win three straight.
San Francisco +3. The 49ers got embarrassed on national TV by Seattle, I think the team has more confidence in Dilfer at this point, and St. Louis has got their win out of the way. And the Rams are a slower team on the grass.
Washington +11.5. Just too many points for an intense divisional rivalry. There have only been three games decided by double digits between these teams since 2001, and besides, the Redskins have been alternating wins and losses since week two.
Miami +10. Philadelphia shouldn't be spotting any team 10 points, even an 0-9 squad starting a rookie QB. The Dolphins have enough close calls, and will play that much harder with a rookie at the controls. Phillie is just too Jekyll and Hyde. And I've been lucky picking road dogs.
Seattle -5.5. Going with the revenge factor, two losses to Chicago last season, and the fact Chicago is making a second straight trip to the west coast. Seattle appears to be finding its offensive stride, and this ain't the Bears defence of yesteryear.
Over-unders (12-16 on the season).
Cleveland/Baltimore under 43.5
StLouis/San Fran under 39.5
Oakland/Minnesota under 36
For the record, I'll also be taking Tennessee on Monday, but am hoping the line moves back to three points. Snooze you lose, I guess.
Good luck to everyone today.
