Sides
Ravens +3
It appears that no one wants to monetarily back the Ravens thanks to their heavily scrutinized and poorly performing offense. It also appears that the Browns have become the “flavor of the month”, as their overachieving play has allowed them to cover four straight and seven of their last eight games. Although it genuinely appears both teams are going in opposite directions, such a notion is more than compensated in the line, thus, I have no problem playing the role of contrarian in this spot.
One really has to question how good the Browns are, as they have only been able to out gain three opponents all season (by a meager 5, 28 and 23 yards). Their success on offense is heavily predicated on their passing game, a facet that may have troubles against the Ravens defense and potential weather variables that may be counterproductive to a teams passing game. Although Anderson has been performing well, he is still mistake prone, and does not match up well against defenses that offer variable looks. With the Ravens still having what I view as the best run defense in the AFC, they should have no problem taking out the Browns running game and putting extra pressure on Anderson to make things happen on the road. This is a notion I question backing as a team having to lay points in a hostile environment.
The Ravens were dead money with McNair is under center. Although Boller has not proved much during his time taking over McNair, he has a lot more upside potential than downside risk of the current productivity level of McNair. He taking over the offense adds value to the Ravens not reflected in the market price. With the Ravens now on the brink of playoff extinction, expect them to have a drastic makeover on offense this week that allows them to take more chances downfield, which attacks the Browns biggest weakness on defense. Successful or not, it can’t get much worse than their current state of production. Also, a change of identity will open things up for McGahee, as such a strategy should result in less stacked fronts.
The Ravens are no longer a team that could make blowing out opponent’s common practice. The Browns are no longer a pushover. However, not only has the market place fully adjusted to both teams’ makeovers, but now appear to be expecting too much out of the Browns and too little out of the Ravens. I have no problem backing a team no one else wants to back as long as I am being fairly compensated for it.
Vikings -5
Sure, Petterson’s injury will hurt the production of the Vikings offense. But don’t think for one second his absence will not fully be discounted in the market price. In fact, in my opinion, his absence has actually created value for Vikings betters, as the decrease in production should not be as material as the lowered spread suggests.
This is one game in which his absence will not be severely missed, as not only is the combination of Taylor and the Vikings offensive line more than adequate, the Raiders run defense is one of the worst in football and should still be at a major disadvantage when defending the run this week. Expect the Vikings game plan to not change one bit without Peterson, while they should still move the ball effectively on the ground against a stacked Raiders box. The return of Jackson also adds dimensions to the Vikings offense and more mobility to defend the edge rushes the Raiders are employing effectively. The Raiders bread and butter on defense is defending the pass, a strength that will not be fully used against a pass shy offense.
The Raiders offense is as bad as it gets and is slowly regressing. No matter who is under center, their passing game appears to be lost. The lack of effort their receivers are putting forth, the lack of protection their line is offering the quarterback, and the slow regression of both quarterbacks leaves a lot to be desired in the Raiders passing game. It also makes them heavily dependent on a solid running game to get things going offensively. This does not bode well for their chances this week, as they are up against what might be the best run defense in the NFC, which should have no problem completely shutting down the Raiders running game. The return of Winfield should also shore up an ailing secondary.
The Raiders are showing more effort for Kiffen than they have for their former two coaches. Nonetheless, they lack the talent to keep games close where they hold decisive disadvantages. Expect the Vikings to run away with this game (pun intended) even without Petterson for a double digit victory.
Bucs -3
I am going to continue to ride the Bucs until the market fully reflects their worth, which may not occur all season. I especially like them in this spot, as they are a well coached team coming off a bye week, and hold a decisive fundamental advantage in almost every facet of this game. Don’t let the last couple of weeks fool you, as the Falcons defensive performance was heavily influenced by getting to face two of the more dormant offenses in the game. They still possess many exploitable holes a well balanced attack like the Bucs could take advantage of. The Falcons inconsistencies defending both the run and the pass should allow a heavily dependent system quarterback like Garcia to work within his means. The solid play of Graham has allowed the Bucs to mask any ill effects to the injuries to Pittman and Williams. Expect the Bucs to once again quietly put forth a solid, efficient offensive performance that grinds out yards and wears down an undersized Falcons front.
The Bucs defense may have some downward mobility, but I still like their chances against this Falcons offense in which has had trouble getting things going on a consistent basis. The Bucs ability to shutdown an opponents running game, especially one as inefficient as the Falcons should put pressure on Leftwich to make things happen in the air. His inconsistencies and lack of receiving options should not be a problem for the Bucs pass defense to contain. The Falcons possess one of the weakest home field advantages in all of football.
The Bucs hold a solid enough edge in every facet of the game. These edges across the board should make it hard for the Falcons to keep this game close.
Niners +3
The Niners may appear to be dead money, as they may have given up on the season and their coaching staff. Having said that, there is no way I will not take a position against a 1-8 team laying a field goal on the road.
The entire world got to see how pathetic the Niners offense was Monday Night. Don’t think for one second that such a weakness is not overly compensated in this line. I also expect the Niners offense to come into this game with a bit more pride and redemption on their mind. The Rams defense gives them the ability to achieve such redemption, as they have been struggling all season, and lack the ideal run defense to put pressure on the non existent Niners passing game. The Niners have nowhere to go but up on offense, and contrary to public belief, they do have some young talent on that side of the ball to make an upward push. They have also shown one of the higher disparities of quality of play at home compared to the road, as they seem to put less pressure on themselves in their own back yard. Dilfer does not add any long term value to the Niners offense, but he reclaiming the starting position due to Smith’s “injury” may pay immediate dividends as he could rally the troops behind him and should improve off of Smith’s current form.
The Niners defense once again was able to show their talent last week, and have always raised the intensity level against the Rams. Although the Rams are coming off what might be their best offensive performance all season, their inconsistency and injuries should continue to prolong their ineffectiveness on that side of the ball. New injured starter Bruce’s absence should hamper the rhythm the offense was starting to pick up. The Rams lack any fundamental advantage on this side of the ball against the Niners to warrant this price tag.
Bad teams sometimes make good bets. So do underachieving teams as long as their underachievement is discounted. This holds true for the Niners this week in my opinion, as last weeks win by the Rams and last weeks embarrassing loss of the Niners has taken this line completely out of fundamental fairness.
Bills +16
Not many people are going to want to bet against the Patriots coming off a bye week. However, I have no problem doing such as long as bookmakers continue to artificially inflate their price in anticipation of one-sided action. Although I am not a big fan of betting on the Bills, as I feel they have been playing a bit over their heads of late, as long as this overachievement status is not being recognized in the market place in context of a betting premium, I have no problem backing them.
The Bills come into this game with a lot of fundamental disadvantages, and I am not going to claim otherwise. However, are these disadvantages commensurate to a 15 point underdog? That is something I don’t believe. The Bills defense has been performing well, and appears to be getting better as the season progresses. Their ability to put pressure on the quarterback with their four man front should allow them to put seven back in coverage and defend the Patriots spread attack. Their run defense has also been getting better, and is a defense that has shown to play with a lot more intensity at home. Their first meeting, the Bills defense hung in well against the Patriots offense in the first half despite constant unfavorable field position. Since that game, the Bills defense has improved substantially.
The Bills offense will surely suffer with the absence of Lynch. However, his absence I feel is a value creator, as the line shift has over adjusted. His recent improvement in my opinion has been more of a product of the improved play of his offensive line, making him more interchangeable than the market suggests. Expect the Bills to run constantly to slow down the pace of the game, and magnifying the effects of a three possession spread.
Intangibles favor the Bills as well, as their success has been more of a product of momentum and confidence than talent. Their intensity level against Dallas (a prime time home game) was clearly picked up a notch, which surely indicates the same this week. They have shown a lot of heart this year, increasing the chances of a backdoor cover, as they are less likely to pack it in if a blowout occurs.
Totals
Panthers/Packers Over 37.5
When people think of the Panthers, they think of a bad offense and a good defense. Although the former holds true, the latter may have become a misconception. Expect an overrated Panthers defense to have their hands full against a dangerous and improving Packers offense this week. The Packers come into this game with back to back 30 plus point performances, while the Panthers defense has allowed at least 20 in their last three despite facing two straight inferior offenses. With the Packers running game improving, they have actually become a more dangerous Over team, as the better balance substantially improves the efficiency of their passing game. Although the Packers offense is playing a bit over their head, I don’t expect their upward trend to come to a halt this week, as the Panthers sub par run defense and pass defense should allow them to execute balance on offense yet again. Expect the Packers to turn up the tempo of this game as they know the struggling Panthers offenses only chance is to win a grind out game. Whether successful or not, such a tempo is favorable for the Over.
Ideally, the Panthers would like to employ a grind out game. However, their defense is no longer talented enough to dictate the tempo of the game, especially against a quality offense like the Packers. Expect the Panthers offense to be forced into an up tempo game that will be heavily dependent on the passing game, as they may be forced to play catch up early on. The Packers weakest link on defense is their pass defense. Their corners like to take a lot of risk, while the Panthers have proven incapable of chipping away at the field successfully. This leads me to believe that they will take a lot more chances downfield than originally assumed. Both teams’ offensive game plans should compliment the Over.
Good value on the Over, as the Packers have a good chance of covering enough of it to only need low single digits out of the Panthers. Even the Panthers offense can accomplish such a task.
Chiefs/Colts Under 43
I still feel the Unders in Colts games continue to provide some of the best value in the marketplace, as the market has yet to fully adjust to the structural change in the make up of their team.
Although the Colts defense may be overachieving a bit year to date and should witness a drop off in productivity with the absence of Freeney, don’t be surprised it they yet again put forth a dominant performance. It is a defense that has always played much better on the turf that allows their biggest strength to be magnified, and it is a defense that absolutely embarrassed a similar (and better) Chiefs offense last year in the playoffs. Croyle should be a long term improvement from Huard, but I am not sure if it will pay immediate dividends, as playing against what might be the best pass defense in the AFC on the road in a hostile environment may be too much for a first time starter. Expect the Chiefs to counter such weaknesses by utilizing a conservative playbook heavily dependent on the running game and short passes that demand a lot of clock time. However, the Colts defense simply holds too many advantages over the Chiefs offense to allow them to be successful at chip away mode. The Chiefs should have a hard time reaching the end zone in this game.
The Colts offense is no longer the high octane offense of recent years, especially with key skill players. The absence of Harrison and Clark (who will play this week) proved costly, as their replacements looked lost on the field. Accompanying Harrison is Gonzalez and possibly Moorehead, leaving the Colts with little passing options for Manning. The Chiefs ability to defend the pass well leads me to believe the Colts will be running the ball at a much higher rate in this game compared to most. Both teams play Cover 2, forcing their opponents to have to chip away at the field and use clock time during their successful drives. The Colts should be able to move the ball effectively, but expect most of their success to come from the ground game and short passing game, to variables favorable to the Under.
The Colts should score, but not as much as most people think. The Chiefs should not be able to score enough to send this game into the 40’s. Good value on the Under in this game.
Dolphins/Eagles Over 40
I am not sure if Beck will provide an immediate boost to the Dolphins offense, but I feel pretty confident that he will provide an immediate boost to the Over. The Eagles are a blitz happy defense that has knack for making life difficult for young quarterbacks. However, they have also shown a major weakness defending the passing game this year that they have not shown in recent years, giving some upside for a strong arm quarterback like Beck. Expect the Dolphins to take a lot more shots downfield, while also being more prone to sacks and turnovers that set up points for the Eagles. Either way, the change should favor the Over. The Dolphins solid run blocking proved that Brown may be more interchangeable that originally assumed, which should also allow some success on the ground for the Dolphins again this week and prevent the Dolphins passing game from being completely ineffective. The Dolphins predicted game plan should favor the Over, especially if they have to play catch up early, which is probable.
The Eagles have a huge advantage on the offense side of the ball. The Eagles passing game has not been much of a force this year. However, they have shown to play the role of bullies in the passing game as well as any other team in the NFC, meaning that they could really beat up defenses that lack an adequate pass defense. This does not bode well for the Dolphins, who have been struggling all season defending the pass. The Eagles hold another decisive advantage running the ball, as they may have the most underrated running game in the league. Westbrook can get yards in chunks, which does not bode well for a struggling run defense prone to allowing the big play. The bottom line is that they Eagles should have solid success on the ground as well as in the air. They have a good chance of reaching the 30’s, and not demanding much out of the Dolphins offense.
Bucs/Falcons Over 35.5
Good value on the Over as the market is over adjusting to short term unsustainable trend of both teams being biased to Unders, as they come into this game a combined 5-13 on Over bets. Six of the first nine Falcons games have been against offenses that should be deemed well below par, which has masked their defenses true vulnerability against the run, pass, and especially well balanced attacks. Expect the Falcons defense to be more prone in showing their true worth in this game, as they face one of the more underrated and efficient offenses in the league that have been leaving points on the board in unsustainable ways that have been masking their fire power. Expect the Bucs decisive edges on the ground and in the air allow them to have scoring opportunities throughout, and put up more points than market expectations.
I am not sure whether or not the switch to Leftwich improves the Falcons or depreciates their worth, but I feel comfortable in stating that his presence is favorable to the Over. Harrington’s first level propensity and chip away philosophy favors Unders, while Leftwich’s second level dependency and inconsistencies are favorable to Overs. With the Bucs run defense holding a clear cut edge over the Bucs running game and the likelihood of having to play catch up, expect the Falcons to pass more than originally planned.
I think the Bucs surprise the market and should reach the mid 20’s in points scored. The Falcons should score enough to send this game into the low 40’s. 35.5 is a bargain in my opinion for Over bettors.
Giants/Lions Under 49
I am not surprised in the least that the total in this game is one of the most inflated on Sunday’s card, as market perception of both teams worth are skewed on their offensive productivity. The Giants improvement on defense has simply not gotten the credit it deserves for the recent success of the team. Their ability to defend the run well has forced opponents into pass happy attacks that allow their pass rush strengths to be magnified. The Lions offense has been getting progressively less effective, and has now become one of the more underrated ones in the league. Kitna has been becoming less efficient and has not shown an ability to put the ball in the end zone in recent games, throwing just four touchdowns in his last five games. The Lions once again proved last week they are more productive utilizing better balanced attacks than using the pass happy style that skews Over bias. Expect them to be more dependent on the run this week, that should demand more clock time out of their drives and keep the Giants offense off the field. Simply put, the Lions do not hold an edge on offense to warrant a total this high.
Much like the Giants defense, the Lions defense has not been getting much credit. This holds especially true at home, where they have allowed over 17 points just once this season. Although the Giants passing attack is dangerous and holds the slight edge over the Lions pass defense, expect them to try to turn this game into a slow pace slugfest and avoid the shootout mentality the Lions are most comfortable getting in to. However, the Lions run defense is their most improved facet, which should force the Giants into a grind out mode that is clock dependent. The expected slow pace will still be favorable to the Under (with a total this high) even if highly successful, as it simply will not give the necessary high rate of drive opportunities.
Both teams have the ability to put points on the board, but this game simply does not appear to have the makeup of a shootout the market price is dictating. Expect a slower pace of this game by the Giants offense, and the Lions regressing offense to keep this one under the posted total.
Redskins/Cowboys Under 47.5
It is going to take a lot for me to turn down an Under opportunity with a total posted in the high 40’s with two of the leagues top ten defenses involved in this game. Although the Cowboys offense is talented enough for one to shy away for an Under bet, the overmatched Redskins offense and expected game plans creates too much value on the Under in this game.
Although the Cowboys offense passed the test last week against a hot Giants defense, they have a tougher challenge this week against a better suited and more effective defense. In my opinion, the Redskins still hold one of the better pass defenses in the league, giving their opponents best chance on the ground for offensive success. I also feel that the absence of Taylor in the secondary will only encourage the Cowboys to run more rather than pass more, as not only was Taylors biggest asset defending the run, but the Redskins will now be forced into more zone coverage, rather than stacked boxes, making it harder to throw the ball downfield and allow for quicker drives. Romo’s propensity to make mistakes coupled with the Redskins defenses ability to create them could also make some of the effective drives end with nothing. Although the Cowboys offense should be effective, most of their success will come on the ground and demand clock time. I view the Redskins recent defensive regression not terribly sustainable, therefore a value opportunity rather than a concern.
The Cowboys defense is a highly underrated unit that has been overshadowed by their offense. The Redskins offense is inconsistent units that may have their injuries catch up with them with the absence of Lloyd, Moss and Thrash. Not only will their passing game suffer, but the effectiveness of their biggest offensive threat will also suffer due to these injuries, as Portis will constantly being stacked boxes throughout the game. Having said that, the Redskins will be highly committed to the running game throughout, as they have proven incapable of running a one dimensional passing attack. Simply put, I don’t see much upside on the Redskins offense in this spot, and reaching 20 would be surprise.
Patriots/Bills Under 46.5
I will continue to go against the grain in Patriots games, as artificial inflation has created as much value on Unders in their games as it has on the opposition. There probably isn’t a defense in the league that could match up well against the Patriots, but the Bills could be one of the better ones at containing them to a certain degree they are not used to. There well coached defense does a good job creating turnovers and pressure on the quarterback, and force the opposition to pick away at the field to have success in the air. Their ability and reliance at consistently rushing four gives them better leverage at doubling offensive threats and playing more zone than the Patriots are accustomed to seeing. The weather may also be detrimental to an over reliance in the passing game and force the Patriots to depend more on the running game than they would like.
The Bills offense may run into some big problems in this game, as Losman’s inconsistencies and the absence of Lynch leaves a lot to be desired. The Bills are expected to be heavily committed to the running game, shorten the clock and prevent Losman from having a huge bearing on the outcome of the game. They will be committed to the running game throughout, and Losman is not the ideal candidate to score garbage points and lead a one dimensional offense to a backdoor Over cover.
Ravens +3
It appears that no one wants to monetarily back the Ravens thanks to their heavily scrutinized and poorly performing offense. It also appears that the Browns have become the “flavor of the month”, as their overachieving play has allowed them to cover four straight and seven of their last eight games. Although it genuinely appears both teams are going in opposite directions, such a notion is more than compensated in the line, thus, I have no problem playing the role of contrarian in this spot.
One really has to question how good the Browns are, as they have only been able to out gain three opponents all season (by a meager 5, 28 and 23 yards). Their success on offense is heavily predicated on their passing game, a facet that may have troubles against the Ravens defense and potential weather variables that may be counterproductive to a teams passing game. Although Anderson has been performing well, he is still mistake prone, and does not match up well against defenses that offer variable looks. With the Ravens still having what I view as the best run defense in the AFC, they should have no problem taking out the Browns running game and putting extra pressure on Anderson to make things happen on the road. This is a notion I question backing as a team having to lay points in a hostile environment.
The Ravens were dead money with McNair is under center. Although Boller has not proved much during his time taking over McNair, he has a lot more upside potential than downside risk of the current productivity level of McNair. He taking over the offense adds value to the Ravens not reflected in the market price. With the Ravens now on the brink of playoff extinction, expect them to have a drastic makeover on offense this week that allows them to take more chances downfield, which attacks the Browns biggest weakness on defense. Successful or not, it can’t get much worse than their current state of production. Also, a change of identity will open things up for McGahee, as such a strategy should result in less stacked fronts.
The Ravens are no longer a team that could make blowing out opponent’s common practice. The Browns are no longer a pushover. However, not only has the market place fully adjusted to both teams’ makeovers, but now appear to be expecting too much out of the Browns and too little out of the Ravens. I have no problem backing a team no one else wants to back as long as I am being fairly compensated for it.
Vikings -5
Sure, Petterson’s injury will hurt the production of the Vikings offense. But don’t think for one second his absence will not fully be discounted in the market price. In fact, in my opinion, his absence has actually created value for Vikings betters, as the decrease in production should not be as material as the lowered spread suggests.
This is one game in which his absence will not be severely missed, as not only is the combination of Taylor and the Vikings offensive line more than adequate, the Raiders run defense is one of the worst in football and should still be at a major disadvantage when defending the run this week. Expect the Vikings game plan to not change one bit without Peterson, while they should still move the ball effectively on the ground against a stacked Raiders box. The return of Jackson also adds dimensions to the Vikings offense and more mobility to defend the edge rushes the Raiders are employing effectively. The Raiders bread and butter on defense is defending the pass, a strength that will not be fully used against a pass shy offense.
The Raiders offense is as bad as it gets and is slowly regressing. No matter who is under center, their passing game appears to be lost. The lack of effort their receivers are putting forth, the lack of protection their line is offering the quarterback, and the slow regression of both quarterbacks leaves a lot to be desired in the Raiders passing game. It also makes them heavily dependent on a solid running game to get things going offensively. This does not bode well for their chances this week, as they are up against what might be the best run defense in the NFC, which should have no problem completely shutting down the Raiders running game. The return of Winfield should also shore up an ailing secondary.
The Raiders are showing more effort for Kiffen than they have for their former two coaches. Nonetheless, they lack the talent to keep games close where they hold decisive disadvantages. Expect the Vikings to run away with this game (pun intended) even without Petterson for a double digit victory.
Bucs -3
I am going to continue to ride the Bucs until the market fully reflects their worth, which may not occur all season. I especially like them in this spot, as they are a well coached team coming off a bye week, and hold a decisive fundamental advantage in almost every facet of this game. Don’t let the last couple of weeks fool you, as the Falcons defensive performance was heavily influenced by getting to face two of the more dormant offenses in the game. They still possess many exploitable holes a well balanced attack like the Bucs could take advantage of. The Falcons inconsistencies defending both the run and the pass should allow a heavily dependent system quarterback like Garcia to work within his means. The solid play of Graham has allowed the Bucs to mask any ill effects to the injuries to Pittman and Williams. Expect the Bucs to once again quietly put forth a solid, efficient offensive performance that grinds out yards and wears down an undersized Falcons front.
The Bucs defense may have some downward mobility, but I still like their chances against this Falcons offense in which has had trouble getting things going on a consistent basis. The Bucs ability to shutdown an opponents running game, especially one as inefficient as the Falcons should put pressure on Leftwich to make things happen in the air. His inconsistencies and lack of receiving options should not be a problem for the Bucs pass defense to contain. The Falcons possess one of the weakest home field advantages in all of football.
The Bucs hold a solid enough edge in every facet of the game. These edges across the board should make it hard for the Falcons to keep this game close.
Niners +3
The Niners may appear to be dead money, as they may have given up on the season and their coaching staff. Having said that, there is no way I will not take a position against a 1-8 team laying a field goal on the road.
The entire world got to see how pathetic the Niners offense was Monday Night. Don’t think for one second that such a weakness is not overly compensated in this line. I also expect the Niners offense to come into this game with a bit more pride and redemption on their mind. The Rams defense gives them the ability to achieve such redemption, as they have been struggling all season, and lack the ideal run defense to put pressure on the non existent Niners passing game. The Niners have nowhere to go but up on offense, and contrary to public belief, they do have some young talent on that side of the ball to make an upward push. They have also shown one of the higher disparities of quality of play at home compared to the road, as they seem to put less pressure on themselves in their own back yard. Dilfer does not add any long term value to the Niners offense, but he reclaiming the starting position due to Smith’s “injury” may pay immediate dividends as he could rally the troops behind him and should improve off of Smith’s current form.
The Niners defense once again was able to show their talent last week, and have always raised the intensity level against the Rams. Although the Rams are coming off what might be their best offensive performance all season, their inconsistency and injuries should continue to prolong their ineffectiveness on that side of the ball. New injured starter Bruce’s absence should hamper the rhythm the offense was starting to pick up. The Rams lack any fundamental advantage on this side of the ball against the Niners to warrant this price tag.
Bad teams sometimes make good bets. So do underachieving teams as long as their underachievement is discounted. This holds true for the Niners this week in my opinion, as last weeks win by the Rams and last weeks embarrassing loss of the Niners has taken this line completely out of fundamental fairness.
Bills +16
Not many people are going to want to bet against the Patriots coming off a bye week. However, I have no problem doing such as long as bookmakers continue to artificially inflate their price in anticipation of one-sided action. Although I am not a big fan of betting on the Bills, as I feel they have been playing a bit over their heads of late, as long as this overachievement status is not being recognized in the market place in context of a betting premium, I have no problem backing them.
The Bills come into this game with a lot of fundamental disadvantages, and I am not going to claim otherwise. However, are these disadvantages commensurate to a 15 point underdog? That is something I don’t believe. The Bills defense has been performing well, and appears to be getting better as the season progresses. Their ability to put pressure on the quarterback with their four man front should allow them to put seven back in coverage and defend the Patriots spread attack. Their run defense has also been getting better, and is a defense that has shown to play with a lot more intensity at home. Their first meeting, the Bills defense hung in well against the Patriots offense in the first half despite constant unfavorable field position. Since that game, the Bills defense has improved substantially.
The Bills offense will surely suffer with the absence of Lynch. However, his absence I feel is a value creator, as the line shift has over adjusted. His recent improvement in my opinion has been more of a product of the improved play of his offensive line, making him more interchangeable than the market suggests. Expect the Bills to run constantly to slow down the pace of the game, and magnifying the effects of a three possession spread.
Intangibles favor the Bills as well, as their success has been more of a product of momentum and confidence than talent. Their intensity level against Dallas (a prime time home game) was clearly picked up a notch, which surely indicates the same this week. They have shown a lot of heart this year, increasing the chances of a backdoor cover, as they are less likely to pack it in if a blowout occurs.
Totals
Panthers/Packers Over 37.5
When people think of the Panthers, they think of a bad offense and a good defense. Although the former holds true, the latter may have become a misconception. Expect an overrated Panthers defense to have their hands full against a dangerous and improving Packers offense this week. The Packers come into this game with back to back 30 plus point performances, while the Panthers defense has allowed at least 20 in their last three despite facing two straight inferior offenses. With the Packers running game improving, they have actually become a more dangerous Over team, as the better balance substantially improves the efficiency of their passing game. Although the Packers offense is playing a bit over their head, I don’t expect their upward trend to come to a halt this week, as the Panthers sub par run defense and pass defense should allow them to execute balance on offense yet again. Expect the Packers to turn up the tempo of this game as they know the struggling Panthers offenses only chance is to win a grind out game. Whether successful or not, such a tempo is favorable for the Over.
Ideally, the Panthers would like to employ a grind out game. However, their defense is no longer talented enough to dictate the tempo of the game, especially against a quality offense like the Packers. Expect the Panthers offense to be forced into an up tempo game that will be heavily dependent on the passing game, as they may be forced to play catch up early on. The Packers weakest link on defense is their pass defense. Their corners like to take a lot of risk, while the Panthers have proven incapable of chipping away at the field successfully. This leads me to believe that they will take a lot more chances downfield than originally assumed. Both teams’ offensive game plans should compliment the Over.
Good value on the Over, as the Packers have a good chance of covering enough of it to only need low single digits out of the Panthers. Even the Panthers offense can accomplish such a task.
Chiefs/Colts Under 43
I still feel the Unders in Colts games continue to provide some of the best value in the marketplace, as the market has yet to fully adjust to the structural change in the make up of their team.
Although the Colts defense may be overachieving a bit year to date and should witness a drop off in productivity with the absence of Freeney, don’t be surprised it they yet again put forth a dominant performance. It is a defense that has always played much better on the turf that allows their biggest strength to be magnified, and it is a defense that absolutely embarrassed a similar (and better) Chiefs offense last year in the playoffs. Croyle should be a long term improvement from Huard, but I am not sure if it will pay immediate dividends, as playing against what might be the best pass defense in the AFC on the road in a hostile environment may be too much for a first time starter. Expect the Chiefs to counter such weaknesses by utilizing a conservative playbook heavily dependent on the running game and short passes that demand a lot of clock time. However, the Colts defense simply holds too many advantages over the Chiefs offense to allow them to be successful at chip away mode. The Chiefs should have a hard time reaching the end zone in this game.
The Colts offense is no longer the high octane offense of recent years, especially with key skill players. The absence of Harrison and Clark (who will play this week) proved costly, as their replacements looked lost on the field. Accompanying Harrison is Gonzalez and possibly Moorehead, leaving the Colts with little passing options for Manning. The Chiefs ability to defend the pass well leads me to believe the Colts will be running the ball at a much higher rate in this game compared to most. Both teams play Cover 2, forcing their opponents to have to chip away at the field and use clock time during their successful drives. The Colts should be able to move the ball effectively, but expect most of their success to come from the ground game and short passing game, to variables favorable to the Under.
The Colts should score, but not as much as most people think. The Chiefs should not be able to score enough to send this game into the 40’s. Good value on the Under in this game.
Dolphins/Eagles Over 40
I am not sure if Beck will provide an immediate boost to the Dolphins offense, but I feel pretty confident that he will provide an immediate boost to the Over. The Eagles are a blitz happy defense that has knack for making life difficult for young quarterbacks. However, they have also shown a major weakness defending the passing game this year that they have not shown in recent years, giving some upside for a strong arm quarterback like Beck. Expect the Dolphins to take a lot more shots downfield, while also being more prone to sacks and turnovers that set up points for the Eagles. Either way, the change should favor the Over. The Dolphins solid run blocking proved that Brown may be more interchangeable that originally assumed, which should also allow some success on the ground for the Dolphins again this week and prevent the Dolphins passing game from being completely ineffective. The Dolphins predicted game plan should favor the Over, especially if they have to play catch up early, which is probable.
The Eagles have a huge advantage on the offense side of the ball. The Eagles passing game has not been much of a force this year. However, they have shown to play the role of bullies in the passing game as well as any other team in the NFC, meaning that they could really beat up defenses that lack an adequate pass defense. This does not bode well for the Dolphins, who have been struggling all season defending the pass. The Eagles hold another decisive advantage running the ball, as they may have the most underrated running game in the league. Westbrook can get yards in chunks, which does not bode well for a struggling run defense prone to allowing the big play. The bottom line is that they Eagles should have solid success on the ground as well as in the air. They have a good chance of reaching the 30’s, and not demanding much out of the Dolphins offense.
Bucs/Falcons Over 35.5
Good value on the Over as the market is over adjusting to short term unsustainable trend of both teams being biased to Unders, as they come into this game a combined 5-13 on Over bets. Six of the first nine Falcons games have been against offenses that should be deemed well below par, which has masked their defenses true vulnerability against the run, pass, and especially well balanced attacks. Expect the Falcons defense to be more prone in showing their true worth in this game, as they face one of the more underrated and efficient offenses in the league that have been leaving points on the board in unsustainable ways that have been masking their fire power. Expect the Bucs decisive edges on the ground and in the air allow them to have scoring opportunities throughout, and put up more points than market expectations.
I am not sure whether or not the switch to Leftwich improves the Falcons or depreciates their worth, but I feel comfortable in stating that his presence is favorable to the Over. Harrington’s first level propensity and chip away philosophy favors Unders, while Leftwich’s second level dependency and inconsistencies are favorable to Overs. With the Bucs run defense holding a clear cut edge over the Bucs running game and the likelihood of having to play catch up, expect the Falcons to pass more than originally planned.
I think the Bucs surprise the market and should reach the mid 20’s in points scored. The Falcons should score enough to send this game into the low 40’s. 35.5 is a bargain in my opinion for Over bettors.
Giants/Lions Under 49
I am not surprised in the least that the total in this game is one of the most inflated on Sunday’s card, as market perception of both teams worth are skewed on their offensive productivity. The Giants improvement on defense has simply not gotten the credit it deserves for the recent success of the team. Their ability to defend the run well has forced opponents into pass happy attacks that allow their pass rush strengths to be magnified. The Lions offense has been getting progressively less effective, and has now become one of the more underrated ones in the league. Kitna has been becoming less efficient and has not shown an ability to put the ball in the end zone in recent games, throwing just four touchdowns in his last five games. The Lions once again proved last week they are more productive utilizing better balanced attacks than using the pass happy style that skews Over bias. Expect them to be more dependent on the run this week, that should demand more clock time out of their drives and keep the Giants offense off the field. Simply put, the Lions do not hold an edge on offense to warrant a total this high.
Much like the Giants defense, the Lions defense has not been getting much credit. This holds especially true at home, where they have allowed over 17 points just once this season. Although the Giants passing attack is dangerous and holds the slight edge over the Lions pass defense, expect them to try to turn this game into a slow pace slugfest and avoid the shootout mentality the Lions are most comfortable getting in to. However, the Lions run defense is their most improved facet, which should force the Giants into a grind out mode that is clock dependent. The expected slow pace will still be favorable to the Under (with a total this high) even if highly successful, as it simply will not give the necessary high rate of drive opportunities.
Both teams have the ability to put points on the board, but this game simply does not appear to have the makeup of a shootout the market price is dictating. Expect a slower pace of this game by the Giants offense, and the Lions regressing offense to keep this one under the posted total.
Redskins/Cowboys Under 47.5
It is going to take a lot for me to turn down an Under opportunity with a total posted in the high 40’s with two of the leagues top ten defenses involved in this game. Although the Cowboys offense is talented enough for one to shy away for an Under bet, the overmatched Redskins offense and expected game plans creates too much value on the Under in this game.
Although the Cowboys offense passed the test last week against a hot Giants defense, they have a tougher challenge this week against a better suited and more effective defense. In my opinion, the Redskins still hold one of the better pass defenses in the league, giving their opponents best chance on the ground for offensive success. I also feel that the absence of Taylor in the secondary will only encourage the Cowboys to run more rather than pass more, as not only was Taylors biggest asset defending the run, but the Redskins will now be forced into more zone coverage, rather than stacked boxes, making it harder to throw the ball downfield and allow for quicker drives. Romo’s propensity to make mistakes coupled with the Redskins defenses ability to create them could also make some of the effective drives end with nothing. Although the Cowboys offense should be effective, most of their success will come on the ground and demand clock time. I view the Redskins recent defensive regression not terribly sustainable, therefore a value opportunity rather than a concern.
The Cowboys defense is a highly underrated unit that has been overshadowed by their offense. The Redskins offense is inconsistent units that may have their injuries catch up with them with the absence of Lloyd, Moss and Thrash. Not only will their passing game suffer, but the effectiveness of their biggest offensive threat will also suffer due to these injuries, as Portis will constantly being stacked boxes throughout the game. Having said that, the Redskins will be highly committed to the running game throughout, as they have proven incapable of running a one dimensional passing attack. Simply put, I don’t see much upside on the Redskins offense in this spot, and reaching 20 would be surprise.
Patriots/Bills Under 46.5
I will continue to go against the grain in Patriots games, as artificial inflation has created as much value on Unders in their games as it has on the opposition. There probably isn’t a defense in the league that could match up well against the Patriots, but the Bills could be one of the better ones at containing them to a certain degree they are not used to. There well coached defense does a good job creating turnovers and pressure on the quarterback, and force the opposition to pick away at the field to have success in the air. Their ability and reliance at consistently rushing four gives them better leverage at doubling offensive threats and playing more zone than the Patriots are accustomed to seeing. The weather may also be detrimental to an over reliance in the passing game and force the Patriots to depend more on the running game than they would like.
The Bills offense may run into some big problems in this game, as Losman’s inconsistencies and the absence of Lynch leaves a lot to be desired. The Bills are expected to be heavily committed to the running game, shorten the clock and prevent Losman from having a huge bearing on the outcome of the game. They will be committed to the running game throughout, and Losman is not the ideal candidate to score garbage points and lead a one dimensional offense to a backdoor Over cover.
