Another good read their LT
Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys top YPP standings
11/15/2007
By: LT Profits
This is not your father’s NFL, as the passing game has now become more important than the running game in determining who wins the game. More specifically, net yards per pass has become a key predictive statistic in 2007, as betting on teams with the better YPP difference has produced a 59 percent success rate.
It has been a long-standing belief among NFL experts that the teams with the best rushing yard differentials would be the best clubs to bet on.
Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys top YPP standings
This theory was based on the belief that the team that runs the ball well on offense and stops the run on defense dominated the line of scrimmage on both side, and thus controls the outcome of the game. This was actually true for a very long time, even as late as the early 90s. However, with the advent of more creative offensive coordinators over the last 15 years or so, it has now come to the point where teams that can pass the ball effectively on offense and can contain the pass defensively have gotten the upper hand on teams with an effective running game. Just take a look at the defending Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts, who had one of the worst run defenses ever last year, yet were usually not burned by the long pass, while of course winning with the passing of Peyton Manning on offense.
Now what does this have to do with gambling you may ask? Well, what would you say if we told you that beginning with Week 2 of this season, if you blindly bet the team with the better net yards per pass differential year-to-date in every game, you would be 63-44-5, 58.9 percent against the spread? Now, we have to admit that net YPP was not this good of a predictive statistic in past years, but then again, that may have had a lot to do with stubborn veteran coaches that continued to subscribe to the “three yards and a cloud of dust” theory.
Another drawback is that using this angle as is does not take the actual point spread into consideration, as it merely says to play on the team with the better net YPP regardless of the spread. In all of our attempts to develop a correlation between net YPP and the spread, we were not able to improve on the nearly 59 percent success rate of the whole population. Thus, we will track this angle as is for now, as it has not really shown signs of slowing down yet, going a very nice 8-4-1 in Week 10.
So how do you determine net YPP differential? Well, net offensive and defensive YPP are calculated as gross passing yards minus sack yardage, and dividing this result by pass attempts. This is different from gross YPP, which is merely passing yards divided by attempts. Be careful to pull the right figures, as many sites post gross rather than net. If the site you use posts gross YPP, but also supplies sack yardage, you can calculate net YPP using the formula given above. Finally, to determine net YPP differential, you take the offensive net YPP for each team and subtract its defensive net YPP. To determine which team to bet in a particular game, take the team that has a net YPP differential of at least .10 better than its opponent. If the difference between the differentials of the two teams is .09 or less, pass the game.
In closing, here are the net YPP differentials for each team through Week 10 (offensive, defensive, difference). Use this chart to track Week 11 results, and then adjust the figures with each passing week.
11/15/2007
By: LT Profits
This is not your father’s NFL, as the passing game has now become more important than the running game in determining who wins the game. More specifically, net yards per pass has become a key predictive statistic in 2007, as betting on teams with the better YPP difference has produced a 59 percent success rate.
It has been a long-standing belief among NFL experts that the teams with the best rushing yard differentials would be the best clubs to bet on.
Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys top YPP standings
This theory was based on the belief that the team that runs the ball well on offense and stops the run on defense dominated the line of scrimmage on both side, and thus controls the outcome of the game. This was actually true for a very long time, even as late as the early 90s. However, with the advent of more creative offensive coordinators over the last 15 years or so, it has now come to the point where teams that can pass the ball effectively on offense and can contain the pass defensively have gotten the upper hand on teams with an effective running game. Just take a look at the defending Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts, who had one of the worst run defenses ever last year, yet were usually not burned by the long pass, while of course winning with the passing of Peyton Manning on offense.
Now what does this have to do with gambling you may ask? Well, what would you say if we told you that beginning with Week 2 of this season, if you blindly bet the team with the better net yards per pass differential year-to-date in every game, you would be 63-44-5, 58.9 percent against the spread? Now, we have to admit that net YPP was not this good of a predictive statistic in past years, but then again, that may have had a lot to do with stubborn veteran coaches that continued to subscribe to the “three yards and a cloud of dust” theory.
Another drawback is that using this angle as is does not take the actual point spread into consideration, as it merely says to play on the team with the better net YPP regardless of the spread. In all of our attempts to develop a correlation between net YPP and the spread, we were not able to improve on the nearly 59 percent success rate of the whole population. Thus, we will track this angle as is for now, as it has not really shown signs of slowing down yet, going a very nice 8-4-1 in Week 10.
So how do you determine net YPP differential? Well, net offensive and defensive YPP are calculated as gross passing yards minus sack yardage, and dividing this result by pass attempts. This is different from gross YPP, which is merely passing yards divided by attempts. Be careful to pull the right figures, as many sites post gross rather than net. If the site you use posts gross YPP, but also supplies sack yardage, you can calculate net YPP using the formula given above. Finally, to determine net YPP differential, you take the offensive net YPP for each team and subtract its defensive net YPP. To determine which team to bet in a particular game, take the team that has a net YPP differential of at least .10 better than its opponent. If the difference between the differentials of the two teams is .09 or less, pass the game.
In closing, here are the net YPP differentials for each team through Week 10 (offensive, defensive, difference). Use this chart to track Week 11 results, and then adjust the figures with each passing week.
Code:
[B]All Figures are NET (subtract sack yardage)[/B] # TEAM OFF DEF NET 1. New England Patriots 8.74 5.73 3.01 2. Pittsburgh Steelers 7.49 4.90 2.59 3. Dallas Cowboys 8.45 5.90 2.55 4. Indianapolis Colts 7.35 5.18 2.17 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.23 5.72 1.51 6. Green Bay Packers 7.55 6.36 1.19 7. Houston Texans 7.44 6.60 0.84 8. Seattle Seahawks 6.85 6.10 0.75 9. Washington Redskins 6.31 5.80 0.51 10 Arizona Cardinals 6.50 6.01 0.49 11 Detroit Lions 6.87 6.49 0.38 12 Cleveland Browns 7.15 6.94 0.21 13 Tennessee Titans 5.52 5.46 0.06 14 Philadelphia Eagles 6.77 6.89 -0.12 15 Cincinnati Bengals 7.24 7.37 -0.13 16 San Diego Chargers 6.38 6.54 -0.16 17 New York Giants 5.92 6.11 -0.19 18 Buffalo Bills 6.38 6.62 -0.24 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 6.72 6.98 -0.26 20 Denver Broncos 6.93 7.37 -0.44 21 Atlanta Falcons 5.94 6.44 -0.50 22 Kansas City Chiefs 6.04 6.58 -0.54 23 Chicago Bears 6.01 6.66 -0.65 24 Carolina Panthers 5.35 6.38 -1.03 25 Oakland Raiders 5.65 6.73 -1.08 26 Minnesota Vikings 5.61 6.92 -1.31 27 St. Louis Rams 5.84 7.18 -1.34 28 New Orleans Saints 6.47 7.93 -1.46 29 Miami Dolphins 5.83 7.69 -1.86 30 Baltimore Ravens 5.19 7.09 -1.90 31 New York Jets 6.05 7.98 -1.93 32 San Francisco 4.09 6.49 -2.40