I guess it's widely believed that teasing across the 3 and the 7 can be a slightly good deal in the NFL. Well, I think I have an even better plan, if you have an account at a book that deals strange lines in the vicinity of these numbers.
Specifically, suppose your book offers something like +3 -125 or even as much as -135 when the market is +2.5 -110. I have seen a couple of these recently at Bodog (yeah, I know, but it's worth it for the strange lines sometimes). If you were to include this line in a parlay you'd have to pay extra to buy the line to -110 before the payout was calculated, but I gather that it's normal to find fixed odds on teasers. In other words, if +3 -135 is roughly equivalent to +2.5 -110 (which the half-point calculator confirms), by teasing this number you get the benefit of a free half point -- you tease it to +9, getting the same odds as the rest of the world going to +8.5. If +8.5 is a slightly good deal, then +9 should pay for itself in the long run.
Have I missed something here?
There's a variant available right now for MNF on Bodog, which has SF +10 -125 and the total at u37 -115. Teasing these to +16 and u43, or +17 and u44, should be good because it effectively crosses the 10, 13, and 14 (and gets onto 17 in the latter case); further, these two results should be positively correlated.
Again, what am I missing (other than having to put money on a terrible 49ers team)? This seems too good to be true.
Specifically, suppose your book offers something like +3 -125 or even as much as -135 when the market is +2.5 -110. I have seen a couple of these recently at Bodog (yeah, I know, but it's worth it for the strange lines sometimes). If you were to include this line in a parlay you'd have to pay extra to buy the line to -110 before the payout was calculated, but I gather that it's normal to find fixed odds on teasers. In other words, if +3 -135 is roughly equivalent to +2.5 -110 (which the half-point calculator confirms), by teasing this number you get the benefit of a free half point -- you tease it to +9, getting the same odds as the rest of the world going to +8.5. If +8.5 is a slightly good deal, then +9 should pay for itself in the long run.
Have I missed something here?
There's a variant available right now for MNF on Bodog, which has SF +10 -125 and the total at u37 -115. Teasing these to +16 and u43, or +17 and u44, should be good because it effectively crosses the 10, 13, and 14 (and gets onto 17 in the latter case); further, these two results should be positively correlated.
Again, what am I missing (other than having to put money on a terrible 49ers team)? This seems too good to be true.
