I think they may be worse than Oakland's offense last year.
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No question.
Without a strong D, Baltimore is a joke. Billick has allowed the Offensive line to age, and the injuires to the Raven secondary have killed this team this year. Why Boller is still there (while allowing players like Derek Anderson to leave) is a mystery to many.Comment -
Do you think Billick comes back next year or do think he gets fired?Comment -
Which is the most unsual ?
21-0 with no TD's or Bengals shutting someone out ?Comment -
And another pick....Comment -
Unreal.
I'm lovin' it though! lolComment -
I had the Bengals scoring at least 21 but I didn't think it would be by 7 FG's.Originally posted by pokernut9999
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Worst defense against the worst offense. Somethings gotta give. I guess the defense will prevail.Comment -
That is exactly what I predicted in another thread. I just have seen to many idiotic things from the Ravens offense this season.Originally posted by vanillagorillaComment -
It should be one of those "mutual" decisions that he leaves. It's time for a change. He's been great for the franchise, and still has what it takes, but after a while things get stale in the same place.Originally posted by mgcolbyComment -
He's definately gone. They gave him a million chances to fix the offense because of the superbowl win but enough is enough. The last two weeks (coming off a bye no less) we've hit bottom.I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomyComment -
He's gone.Originally posted by mgcolbyComment -
Billick has wooed the Raven's owner and probably has this year and the next to turn things around regardless of how stale the offense is.....
With Boller starting this weekend against former Raven Derek Anderson, Billick should hear the boos loud and clear if Baltimore can't score.
Billick has made his bed with Kyle Boller, and, with the kid feeling the pressure this weekend, CLE is a decent value at -3.Comment -
Love Cleveland at -3. I should have jumped on the 2.5 yesterday, but I'm not big on early week bets. To many crazy things can happen during the week.Comment -
Between them and San Fran for sure. They played and it was 9-7 earlier this year with Ravens on top.Comment -
If you're a believer in DVOA, San Fran's is much worse. And actually, San Frans is one of the most inept of all time.Comment -
Let's not forget the Tampa Bucs of 0-14 fame (or infamy) under John McKay when asked about his teams execution said, "I'm in favor of it!"Comment -
I am on the Browns too. I hate betting on teams with bad D, but man, the Raven's O is horrid. Give the fact that their D isn't great against the pass, and I think the browns will win. However, it is a divisional game, and both teams will play their hardest. GLComment -
I always respected McNair as a competitor even as a Colts fan...but my God he's hard to watch now. He's like a cross between Rex Grossman (minus the nice once a month TD bomb) and Muhammed Ali (current version)! I realize Billick and the overall lack of offensive talent is to blame as well but McNair is the weakest link imo! The Brownies are on a decent run this year and will beat the Boller Ravens too!Comment -
How the hell do you compare Grossman and McNair lol?Comment -
They reached their climax last year, and blew a great opportunity. Now they're falling fastComment -
San Fran is worse but have had injuries. Ravens have a good back in McGahee who ave 4.3 per rush but only gets the ball 19 rushes a game. Then they pass 35 times a game with 2 crappy QBs. Billick is done.
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Don't really follow Football Outsiders (FO) anymore. FO has nice stats, but don't care (or are afraid to?) to turn them into bottom line game predictions. Two years ago, I emailed Football Outsiders as to why they don't post game predictions and/or compare them with other stat predictors and received the following reply:Originally posted by dwaechte
"I think that before I put my system on a site that is designed to
compare game-to-game predictions, I should do the research required to
make it into a system that does game-to-game predictions. I've always
said that you shouldn't use DVOA to pick games without taking into
consideration a number of other issues as well. And I already have
enough of a problem with people who say "team X didn't win this week
so clearly you suck."
--
Aaron Schatz
President, Football Outsiders, Inc.
NFL Analyst, FOXSports.com / Lead Author of Pro Football Prospectus
2006
Many stat predictors understand that the stats provide only a potential for game outcomes at best, and are only the groundwork for properly handicapping any game. Schatz seemed unwilling (afraid?) to put DVOA up against the rest of the stat game predictors to see how reliable DVOA was, and Schatz appeared to be unwilling to take the heat (risk?) if DVOA didn't meet some standard besides his own.
Besides, what is the point of DVOA if it cannot be used to provide a baseline statistical game prediction?
In the past I had used DVOA in my own game predictions by incorporating DVOA values into my game stat spreadsheet; however I did not see the point of using DVOA if Football Outsiders did not have the courage to produce game predictions using DVOA as a basis. Besides, How can you improve DVOA if you don't use DVOA for something besides team rankings, generalizations and speculations regarding team performances, and are afraid to see how well DVOA can be used to predict NFL games on DVOA's own merits (or are you afraid to show the public how good DVOA really is in this respect)?
I could be wrong (and usually am), but there it is, and sorry for the minor rant.......
-------------------------------
Looking a little more closely at this game:
Most stat guys (free prediction site) have the Ravens covering this game (at +3), and losing by only 2 points or so. However Sagarin has the Browns covering at -3.5
There are plenty of situational aspects that favor a Raven cover (A team with 2 straight blowout losses provides good line value, fade the public play the home dog, Ravens offense should play better(!) with a reduction of turnovers and a new (?) QB against a poor Browns D.... ), and I have a feeling a lot of the smart money will be on the Ravens to cover this week.
However, a decent (amusing) fade the public capper likes the Browns:
I have watched too many Ravens games this year, and am totally biased against Baltimore (regardless of the stats). This looks like a minimum value game at best, and I will likely avoid this game as it could go any way. However, if I had to make a play it would be for CLE (-3) at 0.5 units right now.
GL to both sides.Comment -
Originally posted by jon13009Don't really follow Football Outsiders (FO) anymore. FO has nice stats, but don't care (or are afraid to?) to turn them into bottom line game predictions. Two years ago, I emailed Football Outsiders as to why they don't post game predictions and/or compare them with other stat predictors and received the following reply:
"I think that before I put my system on a site that is designed to
compare game-to-game predictions, I should do the research required to
make it into a system that does game-to-game predictions. I've always
said that you shouldn't use DVOA to pick games without taking into
consideration a number of other issues as well. And I already have
enough of a problem with people who say "team X didn't win this week
so clearly you suck."
--
Aaron Schatz
President, Football Outsiders, Inc.
NFL Analyst, FOXSports.com / Lead Author of Pro Football Prospectus
2006
Many stat predictors understand that the stats provide only a potential for game outcomes at best, and are only the groundwork for properly handicapping any game. Schatz seemed unwilling (afraid?) to put DVOA up against the rest of the stat game predictors to see how reliable DVOA was, and Schatz appeared to be unwilling to take the heat (risk?) if DVOA didn't meet some standard besides his own.
Besides, what is the point of DVOA if it cannot be used to provide a baseline statistical game prediction?
In the past I had used DVOA in my own game predictions by incorporating DVOA values into my game stat spreadsheet; however I did not see the point of using DVOA if Football Outsiders did not have the courage to produce game predictions using DVOA as a basis. Besides, How can you improve DVOA if you don't use DVOA for something besides team rankings, generalizations and speculations regarding team performances, and are afraid to see how well DVOA can be used to predict NFL games on DVOA's own merits (or are you afraid to show the public how good DVOA really is in this respect)?
I could be wrong (and usually am), but there it is, and sorry for the minor rant.......
-------------------------------
Looking a little more closely at this game:
Most stat guys (free prediction site) have the Ravens covering this game (at +3), and losing by only 2 points or so. However Sagarin has the Browns covering at -3.5
There are plenty of situational aspects that favor a Raven cover (A team with 2 straight blowout losses provides good line value, fade the public play the home dog, Ravens offense should play better(!) with a reduction of turnovers and a new (?) QB against a poor Browns D.... ), and I have a feeling a lot of the smart money will be on the Ravens to cover this week.
However, a decent (amusing) fade the public capper likes the Browns:
I have watched too many Ravens games this year, and am totally biased against Baltimore (regardless of the stats). This looks like a minimum value game at best, and I will likely avoid this game as it could go any way. However, if I had to make a play it would be for CLE (-3) at 0.5 units right now.
GL to both sides.
I really didn't say anything about using it to predict anything. I used it to make a claim that San Francisco's offense, to date, has been historically inept.Comment -
The Ravens offense SUCKED when they won the super bowl but Trent Dilfer didn't turn the ball over... As a matter of fact I don't think they scored a TD in something like 5 games... Steve McNair is obviously not as good as Trent Dilfer... People rip Trent but what most people don't know is (wel anything in short) you don't need to be a high flying QB to manage a game well...
a little off topic... I feel like throwing a bowling ball in these people mouth that say sh*t like no one can throw that pass like P. Manning... My f*ckin' as*... Any throw P. Manning (possibly the biggest dork of all time) can make ..ANY NFL QB can make... As you saw on Sunday night he is below average like anyone else when he has no time... He usually has all day and his recievers are wide open.. I mean he has the luxury of having FULL THROWING MOTION in the pocket as opposed to most snappin' their arm foreward because of pressure...
Comment -
Dwaechte,Originally posted by dwaechte
Nothing against your use of DVOA......
No question that DVOA can be used to compare offensive and defensive production, and that is no slant on your use of DVOA or DVOA's statistical potential.
I am just infuriated that Football Outsiders thinks DVOA is so above everyone (and everything else) that it refuses to do anything so demeaning (or useful) with DVOA - like provide meaningful game predictions for everyone who could possibly benefit from it. I still feel Football Outsiders are afraid to compare those DVOA numbers against the other stat predictors (and their predicted NFL game results) who have the guts to do so in the public light because it will somehow shine some negative light on their baby - DVOA.
GL.Comment -
Originally posted by jon13009
I think you're missing the point of it. DVOA is simply not meant to be predictive. It was not created that way. It was created to measure the true efficiency of the results of games. Game prediction systems deal with so many other variables than DVOA does. DVOA uses what happened in the game. Most prediction systems use trends from years and years of data.
Now, if you were to take the DVOA teams had going into games in the past and the results from those games, then compared and found some sort of trend, that would be a predicition system. FO doesn't do that because that's not what they want to do. If somebody else bought the data and used it in that matter, a really doubt that they'd object.
I will admit that they do use it as a predictor for future seasons success, but on a game to game instance, they have not attempted this.
And, I will note that their season prediction system consistently comes out on top of almost every other system.Comment -
DVOA "measure(s) true efficiency of game results" and at the same time not meant to be predictive? What is the point of that stat to someone who wants to predict possible outcomes? What is the point of DVOA to a NFL handicapper who wants to use this information to see if a team is likely to cover the spread in next weeks game?Originally posted by dwaechte
FO claims DVOA is the best means of comparing NFL team efficiency. Fine. Now what? Gee, maybe I could use DVOA to predict the game outcomes..........otherwise what purpose does DVOA serve, besides telling an NFL team that their offensive efficiency sucks so far this year - like some glorified grading system with little use or purpose?
Dr. Bob tries to do the same thing DVOA does in trying to weed out the pointless and biased statistical numbers; however, Bob goes a step further and gives us a prediction. FO just stands there, points to DVOA, and looks for praise and glory and this single non predictive stat (or group of stats) is the basis for their entire site.
I have seen the DVOA numbers, and you could easily convert those numbers into a power ranking (or team by team comparison), determine home field advantages, and generate a prediction for the next week's games based on DVOA's numbers. Perhaps FO could use another stat (or a combination of stats) such as Yards Per Point or Team stat rankings, to generate game predictions based on those stats using similar methodology and see if DVOA is a better predictor than the stats it is being compared to.
I am not talking using trends or historical data here, and I am talking about using the most current, up to date DVOA data that FO claims to say how efficient these NFL teams have been during the current season to give us a potential outcome for the upcoming game.
If FO could use DVOA to predict the games then put it out there. Are they afraid to show how it can be used to predict the games, or are they just afraid of the results? Let's see their "season prediction system" (what the heck -or point - is that?) results (numbers?) for ourselves before you say it comes out on top. FO has not attempted game predictions? Yes, because they realize the pitfalls of doing so, and can't stand the heat when they fail.
Most stat guys will rely on current seasonal stats to predict the games because until the 4th week arrives, and until the 4th week most stat guys will not even release predictions because those predictions are based on current seasonal statistics.
Perhaps you are right, DVOA is too simplistic to be used as a game predictor on its own merit, but I want to see DVOA compared to something concrete before I can say exactly how useful or valuable a measure of efficiency it really is.
Tell FO to stop hiding and stand up and be counted like the rest of the stat guys like Sagarin, Greenfeld....., and produce a predictive system using DVOA or a combination of DVOA and other factors because, if they have as much statistical insight as they claim, FO could produce something truly meaningful to the NFL handicapper - besides a non predictive and pointless efficiency stat like DVOA.Comment -
You're still not getting the point.
""Measure true efficiency of game results" and at the same time not meant to be predictive? You could say that about ANY stat that is generated regarding the NFL."
Exactly. You've hit on the point right there. You CAN say that about any stat regarding the NFL. Like Yards Allowed, FGM, and Return Yardage. DVOA is like a super stat that measures the results of games. It combines all of those elements and throws out the ones that don't matter to the outcome of the game.
So you can say it about any stat, none of the others do as good of job.
"FO claims DVOA is the best means of comparing NFL team efficiency. Fine. Now what? Gee, maybe I could use DVOA to predict the game outcomes..........otherwise what purpose does DVOA serve, besides telling an NFL team that their offense efficiency sucks so far this year - like some glorified grading system with little use or purpose?"
Why does everything even need a purpose? They're aiming for true fans of the game. They're not aiming for gamblers to buy their book or read their site. Many of the contributors have made claims that they are very much against gambling on sports.
If you're a true fan of the game, you want to know why your team sucks offensively, and how much it sucks offensively. DVOA is not just for teams, it's for players as well. Your offense may suck, but what's the DVOA of your QB? Is he the problem? Or is it your offensive line?(In which case they use Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate)
The whole purpose is to greater inform people about why things have happened the way they have on the field. So that you can look at a game beyond the score of Seattle 24, SF 0
"Dr. Bob tries to do the same thing DVOA does in trying to weed out the pointless and biased statistical numbers; however, Bob goes a step further and gives us a prediction. FO just stands there, points to DVOA, and looks for praise and glory."
Dr. Bob uses trends in addition to picking out meaningless stats.
And last time I checked, they are not looking for praise. That's not how things work. They are simply providing a product. You can choose to use it, or you can choose not to. Many fans have decided that they enjoy the content that FO provides and choose to spend time and money on their services. The FO guys are just doing something they enjoy in order to make a living. Just because it doesn't fit your needs doesn't mean it's worthless.
"I have seen the DVOA numbers, and you could easily convert those numbers into a power ranking (or team by team comparison), determine home field advantages, and generate a prediction for the next week's games based on DVOA's numbers. Perhaps FO could use another stat (or a combination of stats) such as Yards Per Point or Team stat rankings, to generate game predictions based on those stats using similar methodology and see if DVOA is a better predictor than the stats it is being compared to.
I am not talking using trends or historical data here, and I am talking using the most current, up to date DVOA data that FO claims to say how efficient these NFL teams have been during the current season to give us a potential outcome for the upcoming game.
If FO could use DVOA to predict the games then put it out there. Are they afraid to show how it can be used to predict the games, or are they just afraid of the results? Let's see their "season prediction system" (what the heck -or point - is that?) results (numbers?) for ourselves before you say it comes out on top. FO has not attempted game predictions? Yes, because they realize the pitfalls of doing so, and can't stand the heat when they fail."
Orrrr, you could do that. All the info is right there on the site. By no means should anyone be jumping to the conclusion that they're afraid of their stats failing. Why? Because they believe their stats would fail, and admit it. They are not doing these things because it is simply not important to them.
"Most stat guys will rely on current seasonal stats to predict the games because until the 4th week arrives, and until the 4th week most stat guys will not even release predictions because those predictions are based on current seasonal statistics.
Football Outsiders are just a bunch of cowards (hiding behind their glorified stats that are compared to nothing quantative in nature) and to say DVOA is not meant to be predictive because "most prediction systems use trends from years and years of data" is a cop out.
Tell FO to stop hiding and stand up and be counted like the rest of the stat guys like Sagarin, Greenfeld....., and even Dr. Bob, because until FO does so, their claims to DVOA's importance or significance (versus any other team efficiency stat - like Yards per Point) to the typical football handicapper is unsubstanciated.
Perhaps you are right, DVOA is too simplistic to be used as a game predictor on its own merit, but I want to see DVOA compared to something concrete before I can say exactly how useful or valuable a measure of efficiency it really is."
If you don't believe in it as what it's meant to be, thats fine. It's certainly your right. But then just say so. Don't go off on a rant about how you hate it because it doesn't fit this or that need.
I believe it is a very accurate representation, and it is being tinkered with everyday in order to make it better, and more logical. Aaron is a very logical guy, and I trust his results.
I seem like a fanboy, and maybe I am, but not overly. I use a variety of things to analyze football. DVOA is one of those. It has it's faults, as all systems do.
Anyways, when you attack something without understanding the purpose, the methodology, or the results, it doesn't make you come off very well.Comment -
I'm not attacking DVOA, and I am not attacking DVOA's potential.
I have used DVOA in my own NFL handicapping analysis.
You don't seem to get the point of what I am saying - and I am sorry if I look like a moron because I am not as intelligent as you.
Let's try again.
Football Outsiders doesn't want to produce anything but a non-predictive stat like DVOA because they are afraid to do anything that will tarnish their glorified kingdom of DVOA and produce something that could be used to scrutinize their methodology.
1. Football Outsiders - give us predictions on the games - otherwise you are limiting yourselves. You have developed DVOA now take the next step. You are cowards for not doing so regardless of your pure and noble goals of enlightening the "fans" out there.
2. Football Outsiders - put DVOA on an equal statistical testing ground with other NFL stats that measures team efficiency and lets see the results. Otherwise DVOA is just another "non predictive?" stat that has no quantative measure of substance. Is it a "super stat?" Give me some numerical/statistical measure of that claim so I can properly allocate value to DVOA in my statistical analysis of the games.
3. "Aiming for true fans of the game?"
Well good for them - and that is the heart of my problem with Football Outsiders. They claim to be doing this for the "fans" of the game? Please. Their site is there for handicappers to use that data to generate game predictions. "Fans" go to ESPN or Yahoo for their sports insights. A non-predictive stat? (What is this fantasyland?) Don't want praise? (Are you serious?) Does everything have to have a point? (It would be nice! I am here to make a profit - not wonder at the beauty of an impressionistic painting)
I am a gambler - not a friggin fan - and am looking to make money off these games. I want to use that data to make money. I have, you have. That is why I am here, and why I assume you are here as well.
Football Outsiders are actually producing a measure (DVOA) that handicappers can use in their analysis, but Football Outsiders are pussies for not producing game predictions because they are afraid to stand up in the light of the harsh public criticism of true gamblers and want to stay in the safe and fuzzy realm of being a "fan" site.
Schatz may be noble in his development of DVOA, but he is a hypocrite to say that DVOA is not to be used as a predicitive tool, and a coward for not producing game predictions.
As a ruthless and degenerate gambler looking to make a profit, I have a problem with Football Outsiders and Schatz claim to nobility, not with DVOA's usefulness.
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Finally, I may be wrong, but I also respect your point, and point of view, and telling me that "....when you attack something without understanding the purpose, the methodology, or the results, it doesn't make you come off very well." - doesn't make you look any better because at no point in my discussion did I try to belittle you or your opinion (unless you are employed by FO or are Schatz himself)
If I did then I apologize.
Enlighten me, don't tell me how I come off, because insulting me just means that this discussion will degenerate into nothing of value anyway.
You may post further on this matter, but I am done at this point discussing Football Outsiders or Schatz, and agree to disagree because neither of us want to understand the other........
Defend Schatz all you want, but telling me he is some kind of angel is a joke. Produce game predictions Football Outsiders otherwise you are just hiding behind DVOA and acting like a bunch of gutless cowards.Comment -
Interesting read on DVOA I thought I'd bump.
FO has begun actually releasing picks against the spread this season.Comment
