Sides
Rams +3
I can see the rebuttal now. How can one bet on an 0-7 team that has covered just one spread all year, and has shown no heart or fight in recent games? The final product of the handicapping process is deriving a price; which implies that there is no such things as bad teams to bet on, rather just bad prices. Factoring in all the “wrong” that has been going on with the Rams this year, I still think they warrant a play as a home dog against a new and improved Browns team. Books no that they could slap on any price tag on the Rams right now, and a majority of bettors simply won’t touch them. They also no there are a lot of people out there that will blindly go against them until they prove to be a consistent threat to cover lines. Hence, there is no surprise value exists on the home dog in this spot. The return of Jackson should spark a motivational upswing that they are in dire need of. It will also allow them to play with Jackson, Bulger, Holt and Bruce all at the same time for over a month, and allow them to have the necessary weapons to take advantage of a suspect defense. The Browns have already allowed 30 plus points in four games this season, a problem not usually commensurate with a road favorite.
The Browns offense has undeniably improved since Anderson has been under center, and it has resulted in scoring points at an impressive rate. However, I question the efficiency of their passing game, and don’t feel it is as nearly as potent the “surface” stats would make one believe. Actually, the Browns best chance of winning this game is by having success on the ground, something that is questionable to accomplish if Lewis is unable to go or not 100 percent.
In my opinion, this game is a toss up (fair value is a pickem). I will go against the artificially inflated line even if it means I have to back the Rams.
Lions +5
This is the first time I am betting on the Lions all season (think they are a long-term go-against) but am willing to do so at this price, as an anchoring bias an inflow of “public” money send the Bears at a market price not warranted by fundamentals. The Bears defense is still injured and underachieving, and not any better than they were the first time they met up with the Lions. In that game, Kitna showed no problems picking apart the Bears defense, only throwing four incompletions throughout. Having a healthier and better shaped Jones in this game should allow the Lions to employ a better balanced attack compared to the first meeting, and also gives them the weapon to take advantage of the Bears biggest weakness, their run defense. The Bears were able to get away with their lack of depth in their secondary due to injury last week by facing an Eagles team without a receiving corps. This week, it will be much harder to mask this deficiency.
The Bears offense is less mistake-prone with Griese under center, but far from an offense that strikes fear in their opponent. Their running game they are in dire need of establishing continues to be the least efficient in the league. The Lions front seven should have no problem containing the running game, and forcing this into a potential shootout that will favor the Lions club.
The Bears lost to the Lions by ten first time out because the Lions were the better team at the time. Although both teams “worth” has changed since that meeting, I don’t feel it is enough to make the Bears a five point favorite. Value is on the underdog in my opinion.
Vikings +1
The Eagles are the NFC’s Broncos. Perception simply is not reality- a perception tainted by recent year’s ability that no longer exists. This has lead to the Eagles carrying a 2-4 ATS that usually isn’t commensurate to ongoing inflated price tags. Until the market adjusts, I anticipate going against them for some time.
McNaab is overrated, inconsistent, and has shown a continual inability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns. These problems would be highly scrutinized if it weren’t for Westbrooks efficient running game. However, this game, Westbrook will not be able to carry the offense on the ground, as he is up against the best run defense in the league. This will put a struggling McNaab at the forefront. Although the Vikings have some exploitable holes in their pass defense, I don’t expect the Eagles to be able to exploit such weaknesses in their opponents until the return of Smith. This holds especially true in the red zone.
The public does not like offenses that lack a passing game. The Vikings brought their lack thereof to another level last week when Jackson simply proved to be overwhelmed by a Cowboys defense. However, the effectiveness of the Vikings running game will allow them to get away with a lack of a passing game more times than not, especially when they are up against an opponent struggling to put points on the board. The Eagles defense is a decent one, but their lack of size upfront makes them vulnerable to the power running game that they will have to defend. Expect the Vikings to be effective enough on the ground to not have to rely on Jackson. I also expect them to pull out a victory by a small margin.
Redskins +16.5
It appears to be dead money betting against the Patriots at this point of time. Books have slapped inflated price tags on them all season, and they in return have made bookmakers appear clueless by covering these spreads in their sleep. So why would someone continue to torture themselves by betting against them? Because one has to treat them as an ongoing concern, and as an ongoing concern, no team can continue to cover such inflated price tags for a long period of time.
Lets also not get carried away here. Although the Patriots have looked amazing so far, they have only played one team with a winning record- an overrated Cowboys club. The Patriots have octane offense will face their biggest challenge to date, as they are up against the most underrated defense in the league that has defended the pass as well as any other in the league. It is also a pass defense that matches up relatively well against the Patriots style of passing attack, as where they have struggled the most is covering opponents tight ends and running backs, while the injury to Watson curtails this deficiency. I expect the Patriots to witness a bit of a reality check in this game.
The Redskins are not the ideal team to pull off an upset in this spot, but they are the ideal team to keep this game close thanks to their top tier defense committed running game (the ideal combination for a double digit underdog). Although the Patriots have one of the best defenses in the league, they continue to show some exploitable facets to their game.
Although the Patriots are the last team prone to a look-ahead, I would much rather bet against the Patriots when playing the Colts next week than any other team in the league. Their defense also proved to be more prone to the backdoor cover last week than originally anticipated.
Titans -7.5
The Titans are the only favorite I will be on this week, which happens to be a favorite the market place doesn’t appear to like, as they have bid them down a couple points off the open. Was it due to their fourth quarter meltdown last week? I am not sure, but I don’t see the Raiders keeping this within single digits.
No matter who is under center for the Raiders, their passing game will be overmatched by what I feel is the most underrated pass defense in the AFC. Neither quarterback appears to have fully grasped the playbook, which is not ideal going up against a team that knows how to counter it very well. The Raiders offense is better suited for dealing with games within one possession or as favorites. This is due to relying heavily on their running game to be effective- a more likely to be abandoned in games consisting of multi-possession spreads.
The return of Young may not improve the Titans passing game, but does improve their offense. The Raiders pass defense in their strong suit, a facet unlikely exploitable by either Titans quarterback. Young’s scrambling and improvisation allows the Titans to counter when nothing is their. More importantly, the Titans strength on offense, their running game, is matched up with what I feel is one of the worst (if not the worst) rush defense in the league. This should prevent many stalled drives, and also makes a backdoor less probable.
In my opinion, the Titans should quietly dominate throughout. Their definitive advantage on the ground and defending the pass coupled by the backdoor wakeup call from last week should provide little hope for the Raiders keeping this within a touchdown.
Totals
Detroit/Chicago Under 44.5
Both teams have been in games in which the total has flown over the posted mark, including their first meeting that included the famous 4th quarter. However, the sustainability of the derivation of both teams past scoring just doesn’t appear to be their in my opinion. The Bears have heavily relied on special teams and defense to score over the last year and a half. With their defense making fewer and fewer big plays coupled with teams simply taking less and less chances with Hester, the Bears will more than likely have to rely more on their stagnant offense to put points on the board. Although the Lions are known to have one of the best passing games in the league, in reality, it is not nearly as efficient as it is made out to be. It is also a passing attack whose points are not as commensurate to their yards when compared to most other teams in the league. The Lions passing attack has also been getting progressively less effective, as teams have been employing more suitable game plans against it. This will force the Lions to rely more on the run and shorter passes in the future, making them a more attractive Under play. The final score of their first meeting also may be pushing this total up unjustifiably, as it was an Under game with consisting of fluke plays. The score of 13-3 at one point in the 4th supports such a claim.
Both teams should move the ball well, but in order to do so, will have to grind out the clock. The Bears will do such with a power running game, while the Lions will use a lot of short, high percentage passes. If special teams and defensive scores don’t occur, there is just nothing their in the offense vs. defensive match up to make me think it goes Over.
Oakland/Tennessee Under 40.5
In my opinion, this will more than likely be the lowest scoring game in the week, and simply an Under to appealing to pass up despite being negatively correlated to my Titans bet. Oakland’s defense is not as bad as it is made out to be. They showed a lot of improvement in last weeks game, and is a defense that plays with a lot of energy. Also working in their favor is the notion Kiffen knows the Titans (Chow’s) playbook inside and out, and should not how to counter it. Although Young improves the Titans offense, I also feel he increases the chances of Titans games going Under. He is less of a gunslinger compared to Collins, and prefers to chip away at the field and grind out yards. Last weeks shootout being replicated is much less probable with Young behind center. With the disparity of quality the Raiders pass defense has over their rush defense, expect the Titans run oriented offense to run that much more. This should lead to a lot of prolong drives and limited chances of mistakes that set up the Raiders offense.
The Titans quality pass defense and Raiders lack of passing game means a heavy dose of running out of the Raiders as well. With the Titans knowing the Raiders playbook as well, expect them to employ a simple smash mouth style they are suited well for. However, the Titans rush defense is simply too good for an unimpressive Raiders running game to get an upper hand. Points or yards won’t come easy, and will demand a lot of time out of Raiders drives.
Buffalo/ Jets Over 37.5
Both offenses are widely known for having a lack of playmakers, suffering injuries, and having problems at the quarterback spot. Although I am not denying these concerns do exist, I feel the market is overlooking the concerns both defenses have. Pennington’s “struggles” have been overblown, and actually put forth one of his better games last week. It was the Jets lack of defense that once again put them in the loss column. The Jets defenses inability to stop both the run or pass, allows a struggling offense like the Bills to remain balanced throughout, something they are in dire need of. Edward provides more consistency to the Bills offense. Despite only being able to put up 17 points against the Jets in Edwards first meeting against them, it was his first career start, which forced the Bills to play close to the vest, allowed the Jets to stack the box, and forced Lynch to be a non factor. Since that meeting, Edwards has two starts under his belt against top of the line pass defenses. Also since the meeting, the Jets defense has regressed substantially, making it hard for me to believe the Bills won’t surpass that 17 point mark.
The Bills defense has always been a defense that played with more intensity at home. It is also a defense that has overachieved in their last two games (coincidentally at home), and simply lack the talent to keep long stretches of solid performances sustained. The Jets offensive performances are heavily dependent on the opponent’s defense, and they have proved capable of putting up points on poor defenses. Pennington’s competitive nature makes me feel he is primed for a statement game. The Jets will also play with a nothing to lose mentality, thus increasing the likelihood of taking more shots downfield.
Although on the surface and their first meeting would say otherwise, I feel both teams should reach the 20’s, and therefore sending this game over the posted total.
Jaguars/Bucs Over 32.5
The market is clearly blowing Garrard’s injury and both teams reputation of being defensive teams out of proportion, as they bid down an already miss-priced opening line to a price rarely seen in pro football. I am not buying into the misperceived notions, and will not hesitate taking the Over in this spot.
The best thing that could have happened to this total was allow the entire world to see how ineffective Gray was filling in for Garrard. However, it was not Gray being inadequate that made the Jaguars fail miserably, rather the role he was forced to play in that game. Backed by a two dimensional offense from the onset and not having to play catch up from his first snap on should better allow him to showcase his potential. So why aren’t the Jaguars the play here? Garrard’s still substantially diminishes the Jaguars chances here even though Gray is predicted to perform better than expected. However, Garrard’s absence actually increased the likelihood of this game going Over. With Garrard behind center, the Jaguars were a smash mouth football team that ran on first and second down, and allowed for more manageable third downs for Garrard to execute. Their offense was efficient, yet very demanding on the clock. With Gray behind center, expect the Bucs to constantly stack the box with 8 or 9 men, making it much more difficult for the Jaguars to employ such a game plan. Rather expect them to go down field early and often to keep the Bucs safety’s honest and open up things up for the running game. The result will be an increase in big play potential, less time demanding effective drives, more three and outs, and increase proneness to mistakes that set up easy points for the Bucs- all variables favoring the Over.
The Bucs are known for their defense, but their offense has been quietly efficient, and sooner or later, their ability to move the ball as efficiently as they have will result in more points. The Jaguars defense has actually been somewhat of a weakness (in relation to years past) and more exploitable for well balanced offenses like the Bucs. Also expect more risk out of the Jaguars defense this week to allow their offense to work with shorter fields. Whether execution of such a strategy is successful or not, the result is favorable to the Over.
Redskins/Patriots Under 48.5
The Over in Patriots games have been covering at a rate as impressive as the Patriots teams own cover rate. Scoring at least 34 points in every single game will surely do that for a total. The result is books are forced to counter by slapping a price tag over what they feel is fair, for the expectations of blind money that lacks elasticity will put on the Over. Although recent Patriots games would clearly say otherwise, this line is significantly miss-priced skewed for recent (unsustainable) trends. In fact, although this may sound bold and illogical, this game appears to be one of the lower scoring games of the week. What is clearly being disregarded in this game how good the Redskins defense actually is. Everyone automatically assumes the Patriots could run through any defense and are not prone to an “off” day. However, the quality of defenses they have faced year to date is simply not there, especially a quality pass defense that can counter the Patriots biggest strength. Although the Patriots offense is simply too good to shutdown, in my opinion, the Redskins are one of the few defenses in the league that could make this offense look mortal (which is also a defense that has allowed 20 or more just once this year, and has allowed the Redskins to be the most profitable Under play in football year to date).
The Redskins know their best chance of winning this game (or realistically keeping this game close) is to slow down the tempo, run as much as possible, and keep the Patriots offense off the field. Bellichick is one of the best at frustrating young quarterbacks like Campbell, which should only increase the likelihood of the Redskins keeping their game plan simple. Don’t expect the Redskins to be effective enough on offense to where they score a lot of points, rather effective enough to keep their opponents offense off the field more than other teams. More importantly, expect their defense to be effective enough to not allow the Patriots to run away with this game early, forcing the Redskins to abandon the run, and increase the likelihood of “garbage” points that have occurred in other Patriots blowouts this season. Being positively correlated to my Redskins bet is also a plus.
Rams +3
I can see the rebuttal now. How can one bet on an 0-7 team that has covered just one spread all year, and has shown no heart or fight in recent games? The final product of the handicapping process is deriving a price; which implies that there is no such things as bad teams to bet on, rather just bad prices. Factoring in all the “wrong” that has been going on with the Rams this year, I still think they warrant a play as a home dog against a new and improved Browns team. Books no that they could slap on any price tag on the Rams right now, and a majority of bettors simply won’t touch them. They also no there are a lot of people out there that will blindly go against them until they prove to be a consistent threat to cover lines. Hence, there is no surprise value exists on the home dog in this spot. The return of Jackson should spark a motivational upswing that they are in dire need of. It will also allow them to play with Jackson, Bulger, Holt and Bruce all at the same time for over a month, and allow them to have the necessary weapons to take advantage of a suspect defense. The Browns have already allowed 30 plus points in four games this season, a problem not usually commensurate with a road favorite.
The Browns offense has undeniably improved since Anderson has been under center, and it has resulted in scoring points at an impressive rate. However, I question the efficiency of their passing game, and don’t feel it is as nearly as potent the “surface” stats would make one believe. Actually, the Browns best chance of winning this game is by having success on the ground, something that is questionable to accomplish if Lewis is unable to go or not 100 percent.
In my opinion, this game is a toss up (fair value is a pickem). I will go against the artificially inflated line even if it means I have to back the Rams.
Lions +5
This is the first time I am betting on the Lions all season (think they are a long-term go-against) but am willing to do so at this price, as an anchoring bias an inflow of “public” money send the Bears at a market price not warranted by fundamentals. The Bears defense is still injured and underachieving, and not any better than they were the first time they met up with the Lions. In that game, Kitna showed no problems picking apart the Bears defense, only throwing four incompletions throughout. Having a healthier and better shaped Jones in this game should allow the Lions to employ a better balanced attack compared to the first meeting, and also gives them the weapon to take advantage of the Bears biggest weakness, their run defense. The Bears were able to get away with their lack of depth in their secondary due to injury last week by facing an Eagles team without a receiving corps. This week, it will be much harder to mask this deficiency.
The Bears offense is less mistake-prone with Griese under center, but far from an offense that strikes fear in their opponent. Their running game they are in dire need of establishing continues to be the least efficient in the league. The Lions front seven should have no problem containing the running game, and forcing this into a potential shootout that will favor the Lions club.
The Bears lost to the Lions by ten first time out because the Lions were the better team at the time. Although both teams “worth” has changed since that meeting, I don’t feel it is enough to make the Bears a five point favorite. Value is on the underdog in my opinion.
Vikings +1
The Eagles are the NFC’s Broncos. Perception simply is not reality- a perception tainted by recent year’s ability that no longer exists. This has lead to the Eagles carrying a 2-4 ATS that usually isn’t commensurate to ongoing inflated price tags. Until the market adjusts, I anticipate going against them for some time.
McNaab is overrated, inconsistent, and has shown a continual inability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns. These problems would be highly scrutinized if it weren’t for Westbrooks efficient running game. However, this game, Westbrook will not be able to carry the offense on the ground, as he is up against the best run defense in the league. This will put a struggling McNaab at the forefront. Although the Vikings have some exploitable holes in their pass defense, I don’t expect the Eagles to be able to exploit such weaknesses in their opponents until the return of Smith. This holds especially true in the red zone.
The public does not like offenses that lack a passing game. The Vikings brought their lack thereof to another level last week when Jackson simply proved to be overwhelmed by a Cowboys defense. However, the effectiveness of the Vikings running game will allow them to get away with a lack of a passing game more times than not, especially when they are up against an opponent struggling to put points on the board. The Eagles defense is a decent one, but their lack of size upfront makes them vulnerable to the power running game that they will have to defend. Expect the Vikings to be effective enough on the ground to not have to rely on Jackson. I also expect them to pull out a victory by a small margin.
Redskins +16.5
It appears to be dead money betting against the Patriots at this point of time. Books have slapped inflated price tags on them all season, and they in return have made bookmakers appear clueless by covering these spreads in their sleep. So why would someone continue to torture themselves by betting against them? Because one has to treat them as an ongoing concern, and as an ongoing concern, no team can continue to cover such inflated price tags for a long period of time.
Lets also not get carried away here. Although the Patriots have looked amazing so far, they have only played one team with a winning record- an overrated Cowboys club. The Patriots have octane offense will face their biggest challenge to date, as they are up against the most underrated defense in the league that has defended the pass as well as any other in the league. It is also a pass defense that matches up relatively well against the Patriots style of passing attack, as where they have struggled the most is covering opponents tight ends and running backs, while the injury to Watson curtails this deficiency. I expect the Patriots to witness a bit of a reality check in this game.
The Redskins are not the ideal team to pull off an upset in this spot, but they are the ideal team to keep this game close thanks to their top tier defense committed running game (the ideal combination for a double digit underdog). Although the Patriots have one of the best defenses in the league, they continue to show some exploitable facets to their game.
Although the Patriots are the last team prone to a look-ahead, I would much rather bet against the Patriots when playing the Colts next week than any other team in the league. Their defense also proved to be more prone to the backdoor cover last week than originally anticipated.
Titans -7.5
The Titans are the only favorite I will be on this week, which happens to be a favorite the market place doesn’t appear to like, as they have bid them down a couple points off the open. Was it due to their fourth quarter meltdown last week? I am not sure, but I don’t see the Raiders keeping this within single digits.
No matter who is under center for the Raiders, their passing game will be overmatched by what I feel is the most underrated pass defense in the AFC. Neither quarterback appears to have fully grasped the playbook, which is not ideal going up against a team that knows how to counter it very well. The Raiders offense is better suited for dealing with games within one possession or as favorites. This is due to relying heavily on their running game to be effective- a more likely to be abandoned in games consisting of multi-possession spreads.
The return of Young may not improve the Titans passing game, but does improve their offense. The Raiders pass defense in their strong suit, a facet unlikely exploitable by either Titans quarterback. Young’s scrambling and improvisation allows the Titans to counter when nothing is their. More importantly, the Titans strength on offense, their running game, is matched up with what I feel is one of the worst (if not the worst) rush defense in the league. This should prevent many stalled drives, and also makes a backdoor less probable.
In my opinion, the Titans should quietly dominate throughout. Their definitive advantage on the ground and defending the pass coupled by the backdoor wakeup call from last week should provide little hope for the Raiders keeping this within a touchdown.
Totals
Detroit/Chicago Under 44.5
Both teams have been in games in which the total has flown over the posted mark, including their first meeting that included the famous 4th quarter. However, the sustainability of the derivation of both teams past scoring just doesn’t appear to be their in my opinion. The Bears have heavily relied on special teams and defense to score over the last year and a half. With their defense making fewer and fewer big plays coupled with teams simply taking less and less chances with Hester, the Bears will more than likely have to rely more on their stagnant offense to put points on the board. Although the Lions are known to have one of the best passing games in the league, in reality, it is not nearly as efficient as it is made out to be. It is also a passing attack whose points are not as commensurate to their yards when compared to most other teams in the league. The Lions passing attack has also been getting progressively less effective, as teams have been employing more suitable game plans against it. This will force the Lions to rely more on the run and shorter passes in the future, making them a more attractive Under play. The final score of their first meeting also may be pushing this total up unjustifiably, as it was an Under game with consisting of fluke plays. The score of 13-3 at one point in the 4th supports such a claim.
Both teams should move the ball well, but in order to do so, will have to grind out the clock. The Bears will do such with a power running game, while the Lions will use a lot of short, high percentage passes. If special teams and defensive scores don’t occur, there is just nothing their in the offense vs. defensive match up to make me think it goes Over.
Oakland/Tennessee Under 40.5
In my opinion, this will more than likely be the lowest scoring game in the week, and simply an Under to appealing to pass up despite being negatively correlated to my Titans bet. Oakland’s defense is not as bad as it is made out to be. They showed a lot of improvement in last weeks game, and is a defense that plays with a lot of energy. Also working in their favor is the notion Kiffen knows the Titans (Chow’s) playbook inside and out, and should not how to counter it. Although Young improves the Titans offense, I also feel he increases the chances of Titans games going Under. He is less of a gunslinger compared to Collins, and prefers to chip away at the field and grind out yards. Last weeks shootout being replicated is much less probable with Young behind center. With the disparity of quality the Raiders pass defense has over their rush defense, expect the Titans run oriented offense to run that much more. This should lead to a lot of prolong drives and limited chances of mistakes that set up the Raiders offense.
The Titans quality pass defense and Raiders lack of passing game means a heavy dose of running out of the Raiders as well. With the Titans knowing the Raiders playbook as well, expect them to employ a simple smash mouth style they are suited well for. However, the Titans rush defense is simply too good for an unimpressive Raiders running game to get an upper hand. Points or yards won’t come easy, and will demand a lot of time out of Raiders drives.
Buffalo/ Jets Over 37.5
Both offenses are widely known for having a lack of playmakers, suffering injuries, and having problems at the quarterback spot. Although I am not denying these concerns do exist, I feel the market is overlooking the concerns both defenses have. Pennington’s “struggles” have been overblown, and actually put forth one of his better games last week. It was the Jets lack of defense that once again put them in the loss column. The Jets defenses inability to stop both the run or pass, allows a struggling offense like the Bills to remain balanced throughout, something they are in dire need of. Edward provides more consistency to the Bills offense. Despite only being able to put up 17 points against the Jets in Edwards first meeting against them, it was his first career start, which forced the Bills to play close to the vest, allowed the Jets to stack the box, and forced Lynch to be a non factor. Since that meeting, Edwards has two starts under his belt against top of the line pass defenses. Also since the meeting, the Jets defense has regressed substantially, making it hard for me to believe the Bills won’t surpass that 17 point mark.
The Bills defense has always been a defense that played with more intensity at home. It is also a defense that has overachieved in their last two games (coincidentally at home), and simply lack the talent to keep long stretches of solid performances sustained. The Jets offensive performances are heavily dependent on the opponent’s defense, and they have proved capable of putting up points on poor defenses. Pennington’s competitive nature makes me feel he is primed for a statement game. The Jets will also play with a nothing to lose mentality, thus increasing the likelihood of taking more shots downfield.
Although on the surface and their first meeting would say otherwise, I feel both teams should reach the 20’s, and therefore sending this game over the posted total.
Jaguars/Bucs Over 32.5
The market is clearly blowing Garrard’s injury and both teams reputation of being defensive teams out of proportion, as they bid down an already miss-priced opening line to a price rarely seen in pro football. I am not buying into the misperceived notions, and will not hesitate taking the Over in this spot.
The best thing that could have happened to this total was allow the entire world to see how ineffective Gray was filling in for Garrard. However, it was not Gray being inadequate that made the Jaguars fail miserably, rather the role he was forced to play in that game. Backed by a two dimensional offense from the onset and not having to play catch up from his first snap on should better allow him to showcase his potential. So why aren’t the Jaguars the play here? Garrard’s still substantially diminishes the Jaguars chances here even though Gray is predicted to perform better than expected. However, Garrard’s absence actually increased the likelihood of this game going Over. With Garrard behind center, the Jaguars were a smash mouth football team that ran on first and second down, and allowed for more manageable third downs for Garrard to execute. Their offense was efficient, yet very demanding on the clock. With Gray behind center, expect the Bucs to constantly stack the box with 8 or 9 men, making it much more difficult for the Jaguars to employ such a game plan. Rather expect them to go down field early and often to keep the Bucs safety’s honest and open up things up for the running game. The result will be an increase in big play potential, less time demanding effective drives, more three and outs, and increase proneness to mistakes that set up easy points for the Bucs- all variables favoring the Over.
The Bucs are known for their defense, but their offense has been quietly efficient, and sooner or later, their ability to move the ball as efficiently as they have will result in more points. The Jaguars defense has actually been somewhat of a weakness (in relation to years past) and more exploitable for well balanced offenses like the Bucs. Also expect more risk out of the Jaguars defense this week to allow their offense to work with shorter fields. Whether execution of such a strategy is successful or not, the result is favorable to the Over.
Redskins/Patriots Under 48.5
The Over in Patriots games have been covering at a rate as impressive as the Patriots teams own cover rate. Scoring at least 34 points in every single game will surely do that for a total. The result is books are forced to counter by slapping a price tag over what they feel is fair, for the expectations of blind money that lacks elasticity will put on the Over. Although recent Patriots games would clearly say otherwise, this line is significantly miss-priced skewed for recent (unsustainable) trends. In fact, although this may sound bold and illogical, this game appears to be one of the lower scoring games of the week. What is clearly being disregarded in this game how good the Redskins defense actually is. Everyone automatically assumes the Patriots could run through any defense and are not prone to an “off” day. However, the quality of defenses they have faced year to date is simply not there, especially a quality pass defense that can counter the Patriots biggest strength. Although the Patriots offense is simply too good to shutdown, in my opinion, the Redskins are one of the few defenses in the league that could make this offense look mortal (which is also a defense that has allowed 20 or more just once this year, and has allowed the Redskins to be the most profitable Under play in football year to date).
The Redskins know their best chance of winning this game (or realistically keeping this game close) is to slow down the tempo, run as much as possible, and keep the Patriots offense off the field. Bellichick is one of the best at frustrating young quarterbacks like Campbell, which should only increase the likelihood of the Redskins keeping their game plan simple. Don’t expect the Redskins to be effective enough on offense to where they score a lot of points, rather effective enough to keep their opponents offense off the field more than other teams. More importantly, expect their defense to be effective enough to not allow the Patriots to run away with this game early, forcing the Redskins to abandon the run, and increase the likelihood of “garbage” points that have occurred in other Patriots blowouts this season. Being positively correlated to my Redskins bet is also a plus.