Week 8 NFL - The Chart

nep1293 · 10-24-07, 08:31 AM

The last 3 weeks have just been treading water. It's better than having bad weeks but I'm still a little disappointed. I think a few big weeks are right around the corner, but maybe not this week. I have a feeling another .500 week is likely.

Giants/Dolphins is not included due to the neutral site. If the Chargers game gets moved that will also not be included.

Again, there isn't a lot of data on the Patriot game. Huge spreads like this are generally uncommon. I'm just taking the Pats until they fail to cover a spread. I think they are a team that trends shouldn't apply to.

cobra_king · 10-24-07, 11:17 AM

Nep, as far as the chart is concerned i think you are doing a disservice to it by picking the patriots because you "think trends don't apply to them". If there isn't enough data i think it would be better to just classify it as a non-play rather than using a personal opinion to justify the play. If you decide to just bet them that's one thing, but it shouldn't be included as a "chart" play. Just my opinion and GL to you.

LT Profits · 10-24-07, 11:24 AM

Actually cobra, they are a light chart play at 50.88%.

I don't know if nep has a minimum cutoff like he does in college.

cobra_king · 10-24-07, 11:28 AM

I thought his cutoff to make it an official play was 55%? I could be wrong about that tho and it does just apply to college.

nep1293 · 10-24-07, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by cobra_king

I thought his cutoff to make it an official play was 55%? I could be wrong about that tho and it does just apply to college.

I use the 55% barrier more in College just to weed out the games. I can justify betting all the NFL games even if they are 53% according to the chart. It is probably the gambling addict in me but I love to have action on all the NFL games.

The NFL percents in general have less meaning just based on the total # of games in the history. A lot of the NCAA spreads have a database of 100+ games. NFL has significantly less games in the system.

You are probably right that I shouldn't even count it for the system since the game doesn't really fit any pattern. It's something to consider for the future.

Strangely, the below 55% picks are 15-5-1 on the year, they are making up almost the entire profit. The below 55% picks in College are 102-116-4. So weeding them out looks to be the smart thing to do.