[WillyBoy]

Dogs remain the way to go against the spread, hitting it at a 61.3% clip. And dogs are killing the Limper as well, which may be why the model has (at least for the moment) gone dog-crazy, expecting 13 to cover this week. Also, FWIW, home teams, on the other hand, are underperforming at 50% ATS, and only 52.4% SU; and (against opening lines, at least) unders are winning vs overs at 62.5% to 35.9%.

Personally, I’ve been riding teasers for the pros, and parlays for college, losing on the former, and making up losses with latter. (I know nothing about college football, but I have a nerd-guru (who costs me an arm and a leg) who seldom steers me wrong.)

Good luck this week.

[WillyBoy]

Bear in mind, the Power Rankings below are based strictly on numerical data gathered thru Week 4. My own eye-testing tells me the Vikings are not better than the Chiefs (although their secondary made Matt Ryan look 10 years younger, and their special teams are a joke), and the Bengals belong ahead of both the Bucs and the Rams. The Eagles and Bills are more like 1A and 1B, with the Chiefs and Cowboys very close behind – IMO.

[WillyBoy]

[OldBill]

kinda wacko taking steelrs with rookie qb 1st road they all have failed except one i recall rookie qb vs rookie qb 1st home game

then when when rookie road winner came home wk 2 he got smoked

[WillyBoy]

kinda wacko taking steelrs with rookie qb 1st road they all have failed except one i recall rookie qb vs rookie qb 1st home game

then when when rookie road winner came home wk 2 he got smoked

Not being “wacko” myself, especially with my numbers showing a 12.2 Bills’ advantage (Team Rankings has it at 13.7), even with Knox questionable, so I’m not getting anywhere near Pittsburgh. Thing is, the model – this week, anyway – seems loathe to project blowouts (even though the Bills have 2 this season already). Nevertheless, I see the line dropping by game time (it opened at -8), and the sharps are bound to move in. GL

[WillyBoy]

Out of pretty much, nowhere, Jacksonville has improved itself on both sides of the ball this season. Instead of fighting for last place with the likes of Chicago in terms of team salaries, they’re up there with the grownups at #9 – and it shows in the results. Detroit (#14) also has loosened the purse strings, after decades of fielding minimum wage teams, and they’re doing something right on offense. Now, if they could only draft even semi-competently, they might have a defense – but, of course, it’s still Detroit.

By “popular demand” (sort of), I’ve brought back a ranking of rankings column – FWIW.

BTW – I’ve seen better looking barf than what Broncos showed last night. Russell Wilson is making Pete Carroll look like a genius. It’s kind of the reverse Brady/Belichick thing when Brady went to Tampa. Wilson is a pudgy, slow and inaccurate version of himself. Geno Smith in Seattle has better numbers than Wilson – across the board! And that’s against tougher opposition! I feel for Al Michaels having to sit through such garbage; and – next up – Washington at Chicago – retch.

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

Some odds & ends you might find useful.

[WillyBoy]