Sides
Eagles -3.5
Although the line has moved off of a key number, I still feel there is value left on the table for Eagles bettors, as the market continues to not fully quantify how poorly this Jets team is (or simply are predicting a turnaround in which I don’t see happening any time soon). Reid’s teams have had had a history of bouncing back strong coming off bye weeks, as well as coming embarrassing losses- two intangible variables working in the Eagles favor. The Eagles will also get back Westbrook who could exploit a Jets defense that has been having trouble stopping the pass as well as the run. McNaab’s protection should also improve this week facing a Jets team that has managed just three sacks all season. With a DVOA ranked last on defense, the Jets lack the necessary skill set to curtail the Eagles ability to beat up on bad defenses- something the Lions were unable to do a few weeks back as well.
The Jets offense has also struggled all season, in large part thanks to Pennington’s regression. At the same time, the Eagles defense has been getting progressively better and holds a decisive edge in the passing game. The Jets lack of running game should make it hard for any adjustments against a Johnson defense that demands such. The Jets are not a good come from behind team, while the Eagles feed off one dimensional offense- making a backdoor cover less probable.
This is one of the rare times in which I will jump on an NFC team going up against an AFC team. Value has been created from the Jets being overrated and the Eagles being underestimated coming into this game with a 1-3 record and a blowout loss on primetime last time out. However, the decisive fundamental advantages they hold across the board, coupled with some favorable intangibles makes me think this came won’t be that close.
Totals
Dolphins/Browns Over 44.5
Normally I wont take an Over set this high when two very mediocre offenses are involved, but in a case like this, they are also two underrated offenses that have quietly been getting better.
Anderson is an ideal Over quarterback. Not only does he take a lot of shots downfield, but his propensity to making mistakes has lead to easy scores by opposing defenses or good field position for their opponent’s offense. I see nothing changing this week against a Dolphins pass defense that is much worse than it appears on the surface, as their DVOA would contest. Despite playing five sub par passing offenses, they have yet to show ability to shutdown an opponents passing game. The Browns multi-weapon passing attack should allow them to continue their upward momentum and putting a lot of points on the board. The Dolphins lack of run defense should allow the Browns to remain two-dimensional and opponent up more opportunities downfield. The Browns have played just one sub par defense all season- in week 2 against the Bengals when they put up 50 plus points. Although I don’t see the same thing happening this week, the Dolphins struggling defense should allow their fair share of points on the board.
Although Lemon is not the most ideal quarterback to have for an Over, with the way Green was playing, he should be an upgrade to the Dolphins offense. His arm strength that Green lacked should also allow him to open up the vertical game the Dolphins have the tools for, but have yet been able to establish. Brown has been the hottest running back in the league, and has shown an ability to get yards in bunches, rather than employing a grind-out mode that could be detrimental to the Over. The Browns rank last in the league in yards allowed, and have allowed over 26 points in four of their first five games. Allowing over 20 should send this game over the posted total.
Vikings/Bears Under 37
I probably can not think of a game in which will have more rushing attempts than this one. The Bears offense has struggled all season. Although Griese is an upgrade over Grossman, this upgrade at the quarterback spot doesn’t correlate to being a better Over quarterback. Being less prone to mistakes and taking less shots downfield curtails the chances of fast scoring opportunities for the Bears offense and the opponents defense in which made the Bears one of the most profitable Over plays for the last year and a half. The Bears offense is highly dependent on a running game to be effective. However, going up against the best run defense in the league that will more than likely be stacking the box at a high rate should make the Bears running game completely overmatched and over dependent on an inefficient passing game to put up points. The Bears are one of the few teams to refuse to abandon the run game when ineffective, which should lead to a lot of stalled drives. I would be surprised if the Bears get in the 20’s.
The Vikings offense has been of the few in the league playing as poorly as the Bears. Neither of their quarterbacks has been able to establish themselves, and simply lack a receiving corps to turn things around any time soon. Expect them to pound the ball as much as possible in order to limit the mistakes Jackson is prone to making, especially against a defense like the Bears who are masters of creating turnovers. The Bears run defense has struggled at times, but with a lack of passing game, should prevent the Vikings from being dominant on the ground and force them into grind it out mode. It has been their pass defense that has been underachieving, but should return to form against Jackson this week. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings don’t end up in the end zone. This one should be a field goal fest.
Rams/Ravens Under 37
Both the Ravens offense and defense has been underachieving this season. But it has been their defense that has appeared to turn the corner and have the talent to continue to get better. The Rams offense has been one of the most disappointing units in the league, and a unit that should not get any better any time soon. With Bulger, Jackson, and Bruce all out, they simply lack the weapons to be able to move the ball on the road against a defense as talented as the Ravens. Ferrotte proved to be mistake prone in his first start of the season, and also proved he could not lead an offense without a running game. Expect the Rams to run as much as possible in order to prevent the Ravens from teeing off on Ferrotte and forcing him into costly errors. But that won’t matter much, as the Rams are simply overmatched in every fundamental offensive facet of the game.
The Ravens offense has been a major disappointment, but probably won’t get much better as long as McNair is under center. He clearly is not the same quarterback he once was, and his effectiveness has also been diminished by playing hurt. Having an injured and ineffective offensive line has only made matters worse. Expect the Ravens to continue to predominantly throw first level passes and employ a grind it out running game, and allow their defense to win the game for them. This appears to be another field goal fest in the makings.
Titans/Bucs Under 37.5
In just three of both teams’ nine total games, has the final score surpassed the 37 point barrier. I see no fundamental reason for this trend to stop in this game. Although the Bucs to their top two running backs diminishes the talent and efficiency in their running game, don’t expect it to detour them from employing a heavy dose of running, as that is what this offense is predicated on. This holds especially true when going up against the most underrated and most efficient pass defense in the league year to date. Teams have their best chance of moving the ball on the ground against the Titans, but they still possess a solid enough run defense to prevent an injured backfield from moving the ball at will. Garcia has been efficient under center, but is an ideal Under quarterback, as his game is predicated on first level passes while he does a great job at limiting mistakes the Titans defense has done a good job creating. Although they have the vertical threats downfield, the injury to the Bucs starting left tackle coupled with the Titans pressure they have put on opposing quarterbacks leads me to believe the Bucs will employ a conservative passing game that chips away at the field, and eats up a lot of clock time.
The Titans defense is not the only defensive unit playing surprisingly well this season, as the Bucs defensive unit has made a huge upgrade in performances this season. This holds especially true in their two home games where they allowed just 17 combined points in. The Titans offense is also highly dependent on a running game, as Young continues to show the consistency and ability to move the ball with his arm Although the Titans running game has been solid, the Bucs ability to stack the box and the effective play they have been getting out of their front should force the Titans to grind out yards and have a high rate of stalled drives. Kiffen’s ability to confuse young quarterbacks should force the Young into a conservative passing game that allows him to get the ball out quickly. Neither offense holds an edge in the end zone, forcing this game to come down to field goals and clock demanding drives.
Panthers/Cardinals Under 40.5
Although both back up quarterbacks are two of the better ones in the league, I don’t see either one having particularly good games. Warner is at his best when coming off the bench, employing up tempo passing plays, and not having a defense have a full week to prepare for his downfalls. This is the first week in quite some time that he will not have the luxury of having this intangible working in his favor. Although the Panthers defense has played poorly this season, they have the talent to improve off current form, especially against an immobile quarterback their ends can feed off of. Without Boldin, the Cardinals passing game will suffer greatly, and will also make them depend on the running game more. This bodes well for the Under, as it is a running game that lacks explosiveness and demands clock time. The Cardinals should be able to move the ball relatively well, but Warner is no longer the quarterback that can make yards and points commensurate. Don’t expect them to put up points at the rate they have been the last four games.
The Panthers offense has underachieved all season, and will continue to do so until Carr gets more acquainted with this offense. Expect him to play this week, but his role and efficiency should be curtailed by his injury. His first level propensity coupled with an inefficient running game that Panthers are committed to is the ideal offense to have for an Under. The Panthers have put up a combined 23 points in both of Carr’s starts, while surpassed that total in two of Delhomme’s starts. Expect the Panthers offense to remain dormant and conservative.
Patriots/Cowboys Under 53
Once again, I feel that both top tier offenses are fully being quantified in the line, while both solid defenses are not. This total is simply too high with the caliber defenses that will be on the field. I can not find a decisive (although both offenses posses advantages) fundamental advantage either offense has that should allow them to move the ball consistently downfield with the relative ease they have been accustomed too. Romo has shown a propensity to be streaky, and is coming off one of his worst performances ever. Belichick is a master and curtailing the efficiency of young quarterbacks, and should not have much of a problem with Romo. Don’t expect the Cowboys to put Romo in a lot of situations where he is prone to mistakes, leading to a lot more shorter passes and a heavy dose of running that usually isn’t commensurate with totals in the 50’s.
The Cowboys defense has gotten much better since opening day, especially against opponents passing games. Opposing defenses have been using more zone coverages in recent games against the Patriots, forcing them to employ clock demanding drives, and limit their big play potential. Expect more of the same this week. The advantages both teams posses on offense should allow them to move the ball well, but they simply lack enough advantages to turn this into the shootout necessary to send this total over the mark.
Eagles -3.5
Although the line has moved off of a key number, I still feel there is value left on the table for Eagles bettors, as the market continues to not fully quantify how poorly this Jets team is (or simply are predicting a turnaround in which I don’t see happening any time soon). Reid’s teams have had had a history of bouncing back strong coming off bye weeks, as well as coming embarrassing losses- two intangible variables working in the Eagles favor. The Eagles will also get back Westbrook who could exploit a Jets defense that has been having trouble stopping the pass as well as the run. McNaab’s protection should also improve this week facing a Jets team that has managed just three sacks all season. With a DVOA ranked last on defense, the Jets lack the necessary skill set to curtail the Eagles ability to beat up on bad defenses- something the Lions were unable to do a few weeks back as well.
The Jets offense has also struggled all season, in large part thanks to Pennington’s regression. At the same time, the Eagles defense has been getting progressively better and holds a decisive edge in the passing game. The Jets lack of running game should make it hard for any adjustments against a Johnson defense that demands such. The Jets are not a good come from behind team, while the Eagles feed off one dimensional offense- making a backdoor cover less probable.
This is one of the rare times in which I will jump on an NFC team going up against an AFC team. Value has been created from the Jets being overrated and the Eagles being underestimated coming into this game with a 1-3 record and a blowout loss on primetime last time out. However, the decisive fundamental advantages they hold across the board, coupled with some favorable intangibles makes me think this came won’t be that close.
Totals
Dolphins/Browns Over 44.5
Normally I wont take an Over set this high when two very mediocre offenses are involved, but in a case like this, they are also two underrated offenses that have quietly been getting better.
Anderson is an ideal Over quarterback. Not only does he take a lot of shots downfield, but his propensity to making mistakes has lead to easy scores by opposing defenses or good field position for their opponent’s offense. I see nothing changing this week against a Dolphins pass defense that is much worse than it appears on the surface, as their DVOA would contest. Despite playing five sub par passing offenses, they have yet to show ability to shutdown an opponents passing game. The Browns multi-weapon passing attack should allow them to continue their upward momentum and putting a lot of points on the board. The Dolphins lack of run defense should allow the Browns to remain two-dimensional and opponent up more opportunities downfield. The Browns have played just one sub par defense all season- in week 2 against the Bengals when they put up 50 plus points. Although I don’t see the same thing happening this week, the Dolphins struggling defense should allow their fair share of points on the board.
Although Lemon is not the most ideal quarterback to have for an Over, with the way Green was playing, he should be an upgrade to the Dolphins offense. His arm strength that Green lacked should also allow him to open up the vertical game the Dolphins have the tools for, but have yet been able to establish. Brown has been the hottest running back in the league, and has shown an ability to get yards in bunches, rather than employing a grind-out mode that could be detrimental to the Over. The Browns rank last in the league in yards allowed, and have allowed over 26 points in four of their first five games. Allowing over 20 should send this game over the posted total.
Vikings/Bears Under 37
I probably can not think of a game in which will have more rushing attempts than this one. The Bears offense has struggled all season. Although Griese is an upgrade over Grossman, this upgrade at the quarterback spot doesn’t correlate to being a better Over quarterback. Being less prone to mistakes and taking less shots downfield curtails the chances of fast scoring opportunities for the Bears offense and the opponents defense in which made the Bears one of the most profitable Over plays for the last year and a half. The Bears offense is highly dependent on a running game to be effective. However, going up against the best run defense in the league that will more than likely be stacking the box at a high rate should make the Bears running game completely overmatched and over dependent on an inefficient passing game to put up points. The Bears are one of the few teams to refuse to abandon the run game when ineffective, which should lead to a lot of stalled drives. I would be surprised if the Bears get in the 20’s.
The Vikings offense has been of the few in the league playing as poorly as the Bears. Neither of their quarterbacks has been able to establish themselves, and simply lack a receiving corps to turn things around any time soon. Expect them to pound the ball as much as possible in order to limit the mistakes Jackson is prone to making, especially against a defense like the Bears who are masters of creating turnovers. The Bears run defense has struggled at times, but with a lack of passing game, should prevent the Vikings from being dominant on the ground and force them into grind it out mode. It has been their pass defense that has been underachieving, but should return to form against Jackson this week. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings don’t end up in the end zone. This one should be a field goal fest.
Rams/Ravens Under 37
Both the Ravens offense and defense has been underachieving this season. But it has been their defense that has appeared to turn the corner and have the talent to continue to get better. The Rams offense has been one of the most disappointing units in the league, and a unit that should not get any better any time soon. With Bulger, Jackson, and Bruce all out, they simply lack the weapons to be able to move the ball on the road against a defense as talented as the Ravens. Ferrotte proved to be mistake prone in his first start of the season, and also proved he could not lead an offense without a running game. Expect the Rams to run as much as possible in order to prevent the Ravens from teeing off on Ferrotte and forcing him into costly errors. But that won’t matter much, as the Rams are simply overmatched in every fundamental offensive facet of the game.
The Ravens offense has been a major disappointment, but probably won’t get much better as long as McNair is under center. He clearly is not the same quarterback he once was, and his effectiveness has also been diminished by playing hurt. Having an injured and ineffective offensive line has only made matters worse. Expect the Ravens to continue to predominantly throw first level passes and employ a grind it out running game, and allow their defense to win the game for them. This appears to be another field goal fest in the makings.
Titans/Bucs Under 37.5
In just three of both teams’ nine total games, has the final score surpassed the 37 point barrier. I see no fundamental reason for this trend to stop in this game. Although the Bucs to their top two running backs diminishes the talent and efficiency in their running game, don’t expect it to detour them from employing a heavy dose of running, as that is what this offense is predicated on. This holds especially true when going up against the most underrated and most efficient pass defense in the league year to date. Teams have their best chance of moving the ball on the ground against the Titans, but they still possess a solid enough run defense to prevent an injured backfield from moving the ball at will. Garcia has been efficient under center, but is an ideal Under quarterback, as his game is predicated on first level passes while he does a great job at limiting mistakes the Titans defense has done a good job creating. Although they have the vertical threats downfield, the injury to the Bucs starting left tackle coupled with the Titans pressure they have put on opposing quarterbacks leads me to believe the Bucs will employ a conservative passing game that chips away at the field, and eats up a lot of clock time.
The Titans defense is not the only defensive unit playing surprisingly well this season, as the Bucs defensive unit has made a huge upgrade in performances this season. This holds especially true in their two home games where they allowed just 17 combined points in. The Titans offense is also highly dependent on a running game, as Young continues to show the consistency and ability to move the ball with his arm Although the Titans running game has been solid, the Bucs ability to stack the box and the effective play they have been getting out of their front should force the Titans to grind out yards and have a high rate of stalled drives. Kiffen’s ability to confuse young quarterbacks should force the Young into a conservative passing game that allows him to get the ball out quickly. Neither offense holds an edge in the end zone, forcing this game to come down to field goals and clock demanding drives.
Panthers/Cardinals Under 40.5
Although both back up quarterbacks are two of the better ones in the league, I don’t see either one having particularly good games. Warner is at his best when coming off the bench, employing up tempo passing plays, and not having a defense have a full week to prepare for his downfalls. This is the first week in quite some time that he will not have the luxury of having this intangible working in his favor. Although the Panthers defense has played poorly this season, they have the talent to improve off current form, especially against an immobile quarterback their ends can feed off of. Without Boldin, the Cardinals passing game will suffer greatly, and will also make them depend on the running game more. This bodes well for the Under, as it is a running game that lacks explosiveness and demands clock time. The Cardinals should be able to move the ball relatively well, but Warner is no longer the quarterback that can make yards and points commensurate. Don’t expect them to put up points at the rate they have been the last four games.
The Panthers offense has underachieved all season, and will continue to do so until Carr gets more acquainted with this offense. Expect him to play this week, but his role and efficiency should be curtailed by his injury. His first level propensity coupled with an inefficient running game that Panthers are committed to is the ideal offense to have for an Under. The Panthers have put up a combined 23 points in both of Carr’s starts, while surpassed that total in two of Delhomme’s starts. Expect the Panthers offense to remain dormant and conservative.
Patriots/Cowboys Under 53
Once again, I feel that both top tier offenses are fully being quantified in the line, while both solid defenses are not. This total is simply too high with the caliber defenses that will be on the field. I can not find a decisive (although both offenses posses advantages) fundamental advantage either offense has that should allow them to move the ball consistently downfield with the relative ease they have been accustomed too. Romo has shown a propensity to be streaky, and is coming off one of his worst performances ever. Belichick is a master and curtailing the efficiency of young quarterbacks, and should not have much of a problem with Romo. Don’t expect the Cowboys to put Romo in a lot of situations where he is prone to mistakes, leading to a lot more shorter passes and a heavy dose of running that usually isn’t commensurate with totals in the 50’s.
The Cowboys defense has gotten much better since opening day, especially against opponents passing games. Opposing defenses have been using more zone coverages in recent games against the Patriots, forcing them to employ clock demanding drives, and limit their big play potential. Expect more of the same this week. The advantages both teams posses on offense should allow them to move the ball well, but they simply lack enough advantages to turn this into the shootout necessary to send this total over the mark.
