NFL Lines for Week 1

[TJ EasyStreet]

Rule of thumb: no one can cap in the NFL until the first 4 weeks of regular season is played and somewhat of identity is made, any NFL capping before this is just being on the lucky side of the coin flip

Judging by my success in suicide pools, I agree.

[brooks85]

well i hope i get "lucky" again this year

[slacker00]

Some have changed already. Dallas is now -4 in some books. Tennessee is -8 against the Raiders. Unless there is an unforseen circumstance, there lines will NOT change drastically because books do not want to put themselves in a position of getting middled.

Dallas moving from -3 1/2 to -4 isn't a huge change. No different than any typical NFL week line movement.

The only thing that will shift the lines around is an injury to a major player before week 1. I don't even think there'll be any more major trades or free agent signings that will move any of these lines very much. That's probably why they released the lines after the draft, because the teams are pretty well established now and there won't be any more major roster fluctuations barring a major injury or possibly even an unexpected retirement or suspension.

[GunShard]

Colts -3 is a trap bet. The Colts haven't covered the spread in Week 1 since the 07-08 season. I'm avoiding all Raiders game, they are the hardest to handicap.

Ravens, Cowboys and Packers are good spots to bet on.

[BigdaddyQH]

Colts -3 is a trap bet. The Colts haven't covered the spread in Week 1 since the 07-08 season. I'm avoiding all Raiders game, they are the hardest to handicap.

Ravens, Cowboys and Packers are good spots to bet on.

The fact that the Colts have not covered a week 1 line in two years is statictically meaningless. That is like saying to take them in week 2 because they have covered twice in a row. If you want a meaningful stat, try these. Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in week 1 for the past 5 seasons. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in week 1 for the past 5 seasons. St. Louis is 1-9-1 ATS in their past 10 opening weeks. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 openers. Miami is 1-6 ATS on opening day in the last 7 years.

Now Cleveland goes to Tampa Bay in week 1, so those two cancel each other out, but Miami goes to Buffalo. So those two stat's become meaningful and useful. Add on the fact that Miami is now a 1 point favorite, and are 2-4 ATS as away favorites in the past 5 seasons, and you have a little more fuel thrown into the Buffalo fire. Now Buffalo is 11-6 ATS as a Home Dog for the past 4 years. Now we have some meaningful trends to work with. That is how you use angles and trends.

[jbrent95]

HOU +3 for me.