The "L" Word Fade

rm18 · 10-03-07, 03:23 AM

I'm putting 10k on the Pats ML, riding 3k into 300k on the ML this year when they go 19-0. Then I will keep 200k and ride the under 100k into 7 million when they go 38-0. The Browns game is a lock if there are no injuries, but it is not a lock

EJandV · 10-03-07, 04:44 AM

In the NFL taking a home team that is -16 pts to win straight up does not really fit into a true category to me and I cant even describe how stupid it really is with words .
To say it is a LOCK that the Pats will win has plenty of holes .

99.9 % of all the cappers in the world would say of course the Pats will PROBABLY win outright .
Why does the majority think this way ? because of what they have seen right . Because of the big spread too .
What does that really mean ? we like to think the unthinkable will not occur ........... it may be a learned behavior .

It could mean beware of a fix for one thing .

It only takes one man to sink a ship alot of times .

Example : 365 days ago the Colts were at home favored by 19 pts over the Titans . The result was 14 - 13 Colts got lucky to pull out the win .

Were you at all thinking along the lines that the Colts could possibly lose outright as 19 pt favs ?

What is the difference in this matchup in question that people seem to think the fav would and could not lose , what is the difference ?

oooh this is the Pats and they have looked sooo good this year is the biggest reason .

What is really funny about sports is all it takes is one key player to have a bad nights sleep , or not to sleep at all , like Dirk (Mavs) 2 years ago in the playoffs , that was his excuse and boy did it show in his performance .
Too many things to list that occur in normal life with these guys >>> that can drain your wallet backing them ....

With all this said , the Pats game rolls not in the direction of the upset but in simply if they will cover ? why ? , just because I typed this on here ? NAHHHHHHH !!!

I actually see a surprise game boiling here . Whyyyy ?
One reason is because this could be a let down game for the Patriots and would make the Browns season to get the W .

I also like it when someone stands to gain so much if a big dog wins (+1200 ) . Lets add up what a 500 grand wager straight up would pay with a Clevland Browns win ? (is just 1 game)

I cant count that high , so that factor can be someone's motivation . You dont think so !!!
We never think like that . hahaha

rm18 · 10-03-07, 04:53 AM

There is a huge difference...

Vince Young was making his first career start. Most bettors including myself thought he would suck in, not to mention the first game. Now I know it wasn't a shootout but he played well. Colts last year were not that good Titans just seen as horrible.

The Pats are the best in the league on both sides of the ball. Most of the all time great teams Steelers, Bears, 49ers, Cowboys were very average on one side of the bwall.

rm18 · 10-03-07, 04:57 AM

Let down? Are you serious? This is the first game against Crennel, and Belichick used to coach this franchise.

EJandV · 10-03-07, 05:09 AM

( A who knew Letdown ) , playing down the competition is pretty normal in sports . If it will occur in this matchup remains to be seen .

The fact the game is at 1pm bodes well for the big dog .
If the game was on sunday night or monday night primetime I would peg the Pats to kill them UNDER THE LIGHTS AND IN THE SPOTLIGHT , but it is early in the day time.

Nobody expects Clev to be shi# from 1 pm to 4 pm on a sunday in oct at FoxB >>> when in reality they are all pros dressed up in uniforms , all guys that have played football since they were kids ......

What I am saying ALWAYS APPLYS to every matchup in every sport .
If it did not ? We would be rich and $ would be like water .
The fact is we do not know the agenda of the refs ,players , coaches , we just always like to think we do .
We take alot of things for granted , give people the benefit of the doubt more or less . We will see .

EJandV · 10-03-07, 05:48 AM

ML on Pats is power move but crazy !

Originally posted by rm18

I'm putting 10k on the Pats ML, riding 3k into 300k on the ML this year when they go 19-0. Then I will keep 200k and ride the under 100k into 7 million when they go 38-0. The Browns game is a lock if there are no injuries, but it is not a lock

I would feel very good (before the game started ) to have the Pats erasing the spread .
When it came on and things looked fishy I would wonder if I had lost my mind or not for wagering like that .

Why would I feel good before gametime ? just because the oddsmakers have them being better by 2 tds and 2 pts .

Fact > the #s are equated TOTALY IN THEORY , BY PAST PERFORMANCE ( is that sound or solid ? answer is no since the #s show better for the dogs) .

How much weight do these oddmakers carry ?

Lets see , so far in 2007 the oddsmakers have been no better than a blind man with no hearing with the relase of the pointspreads , they have IN FACT crashed and burned one after the other ...

Is this the norm in the NFL ? ahhh , the answer is yes it has been the norm for the oddsmakers to not be worth a shi# and their spreads totaly off with the dogs being $ .

I want to tell you Pats will win outright since you have that crazy bet ......... Pats beat the Jets , Chargers , Bills , and the Bengals . 2 of those on primetime under the lights .

So , lets say they lost 1 of those and narrowly escaped with a victory in another , would this really mean anything ?

Brady is Ali , okay , maybe he will be like Ali oct 7th between 1pm and 4pm .

Conclusion : on the surface of course everyone would think a 16 pt fav would win outright , esp when its a team ( with recent successful history) like the Pats that everyone has watched THIS YEAR since they were on primetime tv 2 of the 4 games . . .

If I were you ? I would not worry about a Browns win outright , all I have said is just real life and a heads up if nothing else .

EJandV · 10-03-07, 06:41 AM

Note in the Patriots favor :
Pats could be safe as I see week 5 as a breakout fav week just like week 5 of last year was favs 14 - 0 straight up .

I had a Tenn Titans piece before the season started , that they would be $ big time , I knew this !!! I just didnt share it on here .
So far they r riding perfecto ats .

jon13009 · 10-03-07, 08:02 AM

I think, being a superstitious person, the work "Lock" is too much of a jinx. I would rather use words like "Highly Probable" or "It looks like...."

Pats are on a serious roll, and Belichick holds grudges. While the other "L" word -letdown- is possible - Almost everything points to the Pats winning big. But +17? That is just a bit too much for me.

This is the NFL, and how many times have you watched a game in total disbelief thinking was that the same team that looked unstoppable last week? While NE is not as schizophrenic as CHI under Rex Grossman, it is a team composed of human beings (I think - Belichick may be the exception) Any spread over 14 points is something to be wary of, regardless of the notion that the oddsmakers know what they are doing. Remember, the spread is there to specifically even out the betting for each team, and I would watch how the spread changes with all the vibes going to NE (if no unforseen injuries pop up - remember this is B. Belichick.). With all the people here saying NE is going to cover +16.5, +17 easily, the spread may go up even higher, but I think most linesmakers will hold this one to +17.5 to even +18 at the most.

forex · 10-03-07, 08:06 AM

fellas, I like the brows spread on this 16.5 does not seem bad. However I REALLY like the over 49 on this. Browns offense is very good now and very underrated by the mainstream especially when playing at home. This game is going to be high scoring and I think it could be close, I don't expect a blowout and I would actually favor cle if they were at home for an upset win.

EGGY6199 · 10-03-07, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by forex

fellas, I like the brows spread on this 16.5 does not seem bad. However I REALLY like the over 49 on this. Browns offense is very good now and very underrated by the mainstream especially when playing at home. This game is going to be high scoring and I think it could be close, I don't expect a blowout and I would actually favor cle if they were at home for an upset win.

wow I won't ever go on that vibe but I believe the Browns on the points is a good bet. My thought below and then another tipper:

Browns V New England: Okay the Pats are the class act. The browns are surprising and a team which can move the ball against the weaker D. The browns will do something here and only lose by 10-14 and cover the spread. Which is +17 possible PASS

Browns at Patriots – Thanks for the Practice
I actually have a game on tape of the Browns versus the Redskins in 1991 and guess who was coaching the Browns? Yep, Bill Belicheck. It seems to have gotten lost in an illustrious coaching career that Bill cut his head coaching teeth with the Browns. Not much has gone right for Cleveland over the years while it's all gone right for the Pats over the same period. As for the actual game, while it's nice to see the Browns playing some exciting football and causing a few shocks, I don't see the trend continuing here. Offensively, they'll put up some points but the defense is still pourous and the Brady to Moss connection will get plenty of chances to build on its excellent start.
Prediction: Patriots by 10

SBR Lou · 10-03-07, 11:44 AM

Yeah, I'm not so much into this game because of the huge spread obviously. I'm just wondering with the people who like to fade every posted pick, would you really fire at Cleveland straight up here because you think New England is "due for a loss"? I really don't think this is wise, New England may not cover but you can pretty much make the case that they aren't going to lose.

EJandV · 10-03-07, 12:08 PM

Pats in week 5 ?

Originally posted by crazyl

Yeah, I'm not so much into this game because of the huge spread obviously. I'm just wondering with the people who like to fade every posted pick, would you really fire at Cleveland straight up here because you think New England is "due for a loss"? I really don't think this is wise, New England may not cover but you can pretty much make the case that they aren't going to lose.

OOOHHH yeah , no doubt , is just not worth risking a crazy amount of money for a small return to find out ........that was the main reason for everything I wrote above .

slacker00 · 10-04-07, 01:49 AM

How are the Browns going to stop Brady to Moss?

All of the rest of this discussion is juvenile until you answer the critical question. The Browns, of all teams, will be unable to cope with the Pats passing attack.

Sure, "every dog has it's day". Sure, "crazy things happen in sports". If you bet money based on these principals, you are losing money or you are incredibly lucky.

I'm on the Pats with this one, but I'm never happy laying these kinds of points. It's not a lock, but I think it covers more often than not. If you're a Browns backer, you gotta hope for some kind of act of God to cover in this game. Crennel surely doesn't have the formula to stop Brady right now.

EJandV · 10-04-07, 02:01 AM

10 grand to make $500 ? UPSET NOT IN YOUR VOCAB

Originally posted by slacker00

How are the Browns going to stop Brady to Moss?

All of the rest of this discussion is juvenile until you answer the critical question. The Browns, of all teams, will be unable to cope with the Pats passing attack.

Sure, "every dog has it's day". Sure, "crazy things happen in sports". If you bet money based on these principals, you are losing money or you are incredibly lucky.

I'm on the Pats with this one, but I'm never happy laying these kinds of points. It's not a lock, but I think it covers more often than not. If you're a Browns backer, you gotta hope for some kind of act of God to cover in this game. Crennel surely doesn't have the formula to stop Brady right now.

So you would wager 10 grand that the mighty Pats win straight up to make 500 dollars ?

You watched the Pats on 2 prime time games this year and they happened to do very well , so you are sold on them . ( THEY HAVE PLAYED 4 GAMES AGAINST NOBODY )

Nothing wrong with that in concept really . win one here lose one there , is not complicated , streak here , streak there .

One question you must answer though . IF THE BROWNS PULL THE UPSET SUN BETWEEN 1 PM AN 4 PM WHAT WOULD YOU POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO SAY ?

EJandV · 10-04-07, 02:20 AM

Deeper note : 3 hours out of these guys lives is not like talking about would Winnie the Pooh possibly be able to defeat Godzilla .
These teams are all just male athletes , they are not goliaths, or a literal heavyweight vs a lightweight in 15 rounds . shit happens is the bottom line .

Anyone can ride the bandwagon , that is more juvenile than any other opinion really , we learn that in younger years , to jump onto the great team and any talk we would have with friends or even people walking down the street we would defend our team that we jumped on , all the while not knowing shi# about what was really going on .

With word assocaition I say Patriots you say great , I say Browns you would say ? crap or scrub , you tell me what you would say in one word ?
What does this really mean ? it means jack , people have a learned behavior of riding a teams jock and thinking they are more than what they really are at times (sometimes Superman looks drunk )

))))))))))))))))))))) buutttttttttt stilll >>> made of steel !!!

King Kong doesnt play football either .

There are more factors involved within that 3 hour time frame than anyone could ever truly know .

I may have just talked to a key lineman on the Pats , he is a relative of mine , the list is too long of shi# that occurs in a potentially crooked , in an unknown state of affairs , in a simple ass game that lasts 3 hours and its done .
Players are not die hards these days , they are sploiled mfers .
I could go on and on with real life occuring in sports . (the true human condition and THE HEART OF MAN to overcome a 17 pt spread in a bs football game , how about to beat cancer

, the struggle man the struggle , the struggle and will and desire to overcome ) ( some players have big lives outside of football and are thinking more about whats for dinner that night ) haha

How about a key inj 30 sec into the game , 5 min into the game ?
The whole point is that it is not smart to wager alot of $ for a lil return , and it damn sure is not smart to wager alot giving up 16 or 17 pts in an NFL football game , that is the main point .
If you dont think 1 2 3 4 or even 5 guys can have a breakout game of thier life in one game between 1pm and 4 pm ( because they are playing a certain team ) then I understand .

I also understand there are people that ride the bandwagon when things are looking good for that team .
When they want to jump off , they may have missed my info piece and it may have cost them big $ when they should have never went there in the first place .

sorry is sporadic piece , just truth to screen man .

Of course I would not be rooting against you if you had the Pats -16.5 .
but you knew that already

EJandV · 10-04-07, 03:06 AM

Dogs have been having their day thus far in 07 :

Originally posted by slacker00

How are the Browns going to stop Brady to Moss?

All of the rest of this discussion is juvenile until you answer the critical question. The Browns, of all teams, will be unable to cope with the Pats passing attack.

Sure, "every dog has it's day". Sure, "crazy things happen in sports". If you bet money based on these principals, you are losing money or you are incredibly lucky.

The dogs have been having thier day thus far in the NFL .
The count is Dogs 33 Favs 23 ATS .

So ? This is one of the favs that is money ? I gotcha . I cant wait !!!!!!!!
Note : I am forecasting week 5 to belong to the favs .

EJandV · 10-04-07, 12:17 PM

Brady to Moss for 6 ?

Originally posted by slacker00

How are the Browns going to stop Brady to Moss?

I absolutely loveeeee banking on a team because of certain stand out players on that team , then watching it come to fruition right before my eyes !!!!!

The answer to your question ? that would be where the big spread comes in , if Moss does get 2 tds and catch after catch keeping drives alive , that would account for a nice chunk of the -16.5 pts the wonderful , accurate oddsmakers have released . rofl
The team total of o/u 32 pt for the mighty Patriots is not an illusion , they will neeeeeeeeeeeeeed that Brady to Moss connection to be successful sure enough to reach the o/u team total on sunday .

EJandV · 10-04-07, 03:26 PM

Perplexed by the illogical

Originally posted by rm18

There is a huge difference...

Colts last year were not that good

The Pats are the best in the league on both sides of the ball.

So you are saying that the Colts were not that good last year ????????? but the Pats are great this year ? When in reality the Pats have played nobody thus far this year for you to declare them a team worthy of covering a ridiculous spread. (4 games shows one fourth of the big picture )

Colts won the Super Bowl , they steam rolled teams .

The Colts beat the mighty PATRIOTS 27 - 20 in NE .
But you are right , the Colts were not that good , they just stomped Brady and went on to win the Super Bowl .

You wanna talk about a mighty team like the Patriots , last year they got shut out at Miami 21 - 0 in week 14 , WTF HAPPENED ?????????????????? pATS WERE 4 PT FAVS CLOSING AT MINUS 3.5

Another good 1 , there were too many for me to list , I will post this one though >>> Pats beat the Lions 28 - 21 at -13.5 up to -14.5 pts favs . Dont tell me a bunch of bs about the Lions being this and that either as a defense , Lions went on to lose 3 of their last 4 games after the nice effort at the Pats .

rm18 · 10-04-07, 07:25 PM

not the same roster at all, I never said the Patriots were any good last year.

rm18 · 10-04-07, 07:32 PM

Thomas is the best player in the NFL. Moss, Stallworth, and Welker are maybe not an unprecedented trio, but last years receivers were the worst I have ever seen, so the ungrade is tremendous.

EJandV · 10-05-07, 02:38 AM

OOH my God !

Originally posted by rm18

not the same roster at all, I never said the Patriots were any good last year.

Man come on , we both know you had the Pats as something great last year , a forecast is just that , a forecast .
You thought NEW ENGLAND was one of the elite teams , you know you did .

Second : how can you say the Colts were not that good if they won the Super Bowl ? You saying that actually proves what I am tryin to convey a little more . Is deep , please tell me you get it ?

slacker00 · 10-05-07, 12:23 PM

NE overachieved last year. They lost the AFC championship, and it was a marked "down year" for them. That just shows how tremendous the upgrades they made in the offseason will be. Nobody did more this offseason in acquiring the hottest free agents. I'm still scratching my head about how they did it. I guess some sweet talking and fantastic cap management. They are poised to win NOW. They are healthy, have momentum and have the Browns coming to town. Please tell me how the Browns will achieve ANYTHING against the Pats?

EJandV · 10-06-07, 12:18 AM

trap game

Originally posted by slacker00

NE overachieved last year. They lost the AFC championship, and it was a marked "down year" for them. That just shows how tremendous the upgrades they made in the offseason will be. Nobody did more this offseason in acquiring the hottest free agents. I'm still scratching my head about how they did it. I guess some sweet talking and fantastic cap management. They are poised to win NOW. They are healthy, have momentum and have the Browns coming to town. Please tell me how the Browns will achieve ANYTHING against the Pats?

I guess I'm done talking about it . I HOPE THE pATS WIN SO IT WILL NOT BE SUCH A BIG BLOW TO HOW PEOPLE THINK INSIDE THEIR BRAINS AND HEARTS . LMAO

add: by one team overachieving and the other doing the opposite is 1 way .