Best Week 5 NFL Eliminator picks

Mackenzie Kraemer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.


To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.


This week, six different teams are atleast 72 percent favorites to win. Two of those teams -- the Ravens and Chargers -- did not make the list, largely because of their remaining schedules. But each of the other four are strong selections on paper. The Patriots are the most obvious choice, but if you believe in Andrew Luck's chances of pulling off the upset, each of the three other options are shaping up to be under-selected.
Top Picks

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts
Everything is pointing toward New England in this Thursday night game. Teams on three days' rest favored by at least seven points are 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread since 2016. Tom Brady is 7-0 outright and 5-2 against the spread on three days' rest in his career. The Colts are coming off an overtime game on a short week. They rank 29th in the NFL in rushing, while their best wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, will likely miss the game. The Patriots will be larger FPI favorites only twice the rest of the season -- in Weeks 16 and 17, against the Bills and Jets. This is a fine spot to use them in Eliminator, though they will be very popular.


Line: Patriots -10.5
FPI chance to win: 77 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 37 percent selected
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
In a matchup of 3-1 teams, FPI gives a clear preference to the Bengals. The Bengals beat the Colts, Ravens and Falcons for their three wins, including two on the road, while the Dolphins beat the Titans, Jets and Raiders, two at home. The Bengals' offense ranks fourth in offensive efficiency, with Tyler Boyd's breakout adding another dimension to the passing game. Now they get Vontaze Burfict back to help defensively. This is the most the Bengals will be favored in a game this season, but home games later in the season against the Raiders, Broncos, Buccaneers and Browns yet remain on the schedule. For those who like to avoid the chalk, the Bengals are the next-best pick on the board after the Patriots.


Line: Bengals -6.5
FPI chance to win: 76 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 4 percent selected
Other Options

Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants
On paper, this should be a great matchup for Carolina. The Panthers lead the NFL in rushing, while the Giants' defense ranks in the bottom seven in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry. The Panthers have been vulnerable to big plays (nine plays of 30 or more yards allowed), but the Giants have produced just three 30-yard plays this season -- tied for second-fewest in the NFL. The Panthers have won seven straight home games, covering in six of them. They've also covered the spread after their bye week in each of the past three seasons. While the Giants did pull off an upset as a 6.5-point underdog in Week 3 against the Texans, it's hard to see them doing it again.


Line: Panthers -7
FPI chance to win: 73 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 10 percent selected
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are a team to fade virtually every time they go on the road. Facing a 49ers team led by C.J. Beathardputs a test to that theory, but FPI still rates the 49ers as the third-biggest favorite of the week. The Cardinals are 8.7 points worse than the average team and 2.1 points behind than the next-worst team (Buffalo Bills), according to FPI. This pick is risky, as the 49ers have failed to cover in nine straight home games. But the 49ers played the Chargers tough last week on the road, and this is the only chance the 49ers will be usable in Eliminator.


Line: 49ers -4
FPI chance to win: 76 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 5 percent selected