How About an NFL System that is at 57.3% over 460 Plays?

durito · 09-29-07, 11:20 PM

There are some other angles against those teams. teams that start 3-0 SU and ATS are 5-17 ATS as a road favorite or small dog (less than 3) since 1985. (applies to pitt and ne)

Also, home underdogs are 185-136-9 ATS if they won straight up as a dog the week before. (applies to nyg)

I'm not playing any games though this week.

nevadaside · 09-29-07, 11:31 PM

I already liked NYG & CINCI anyways.

LargeMouthBass · 09-30-07, 12:52 AM

Rudi Johnson out for Monday night...

LLXC · 09-30-07, 01:29 AM

Already against PIT and NE, couldn't pull trigger against PHI.

LT Profits · 09-30-07, 11:39 PM

2-0 with Bungals pending.

nevadaside · 10-01-07, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by LargeMouthBass

Rudi Johnson out for Monday night...

Roger that......scratch CINCI.

Been too busy w/NCAAF, but I at least I only said I "liked" 'em.

Good thang I liked NYG though....now it's

time.

dwaechte · 10-01-07, 12:16 AM

Sounds like a very decent system. Personally though, I can't force myself to be objective enough and actually use one of these unless it's a high number of games each week. With just one or two plays per week, I'd always scrutinize each of them way too much and refuse to play any I didn't agree with.

jon13009 · 10-01-07, 05:47 AM

So far...

Well Pitt lost, Phla lost....Will NE follow the trend? But if the system is 57% accurate, looks like NE will cover. Besides this is a MNF game and I wonder if the MNF game follows trends as well.

slacker00 · 10-01-07, 06:44 AM

Originally posted by jon13009

Well Pitt lost, Phla lost....Will NE follow the trend? But if the system is 57% accurate, looks like NE will cover. Besides this is a MNF game and I wonder if the MNF game follows trends as well.

You mean, if the system is 57% accurate, NE will tend NOT to cover. I know, I'm nitpicking a silly typo.

I wasn't really sure about this trend, but it seem to work for the two games on Sunday. I really can't see NE not covering on MNF, but now I'm starting to scratch my head. lmao

LT Profits · 10-01-07, 08:48 AM

My gut feeling is that this angle works BETTER in Monday Night games because those lines are generally already skewed against the favorites anyway. That said, I will take a look at this in a bit.

durito · 10-01-07, 11:16 AM

I have found that a lot of angles don't work as well on monday nights for whatever reason.

But, there are a few specific monday night angles I'm researching.

Rollins08 · 10-01-07, 11:36 AM

Monday nights seem to throw everything off. Maybe its more emotion.

pokernut9999 · 10-01-07, 11:50 AM

Even more encouraging is the fact that this angle went a phenomenal 16-2-1 ATS last season, and it is already 2-0 ATS this year.

Just a reminder , Dallas won by double digits at home first week and followed up a big win as road favorite 2nd week.
So it was 2-1 this year going into Sunday.

Still good stuff here LT. Keep up the good picks.

jon13009 · 10-01-07, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

You mean, if the system is 57% accurate, NE will tend NOT to cover. I know, I'm nitpicking a silly typo.

I wasn't really sure about this trend, but it seem to work for the two games on Sunday. I really can't see NE not covering on MNF, but now I'm starting to scratch my head. lmao

No not a typo.....Just over thinking - the system has fulfilled it's minimal 57% requirement and NE will cover the spread because the other teams (Steelers, Eagles) failed to cover. If the system was successful greater than 67% of the time, I would bet on the Bengals to cover. 57% success means 43% failure. Silly, but it is rare for any system to work 100% of the time, and this is a rather unusual play. True the sampling period is small, but if the 16-2-1 figure from last year is correct, this system is looking harder to stand up to such a large win rate looking towards tonite's game. Just looking at this from a illogical paranoid view.

durito · 10-01-07, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by jon13009

No not a typo.....Just over thinking - the system has fulfilled it's minimal 57% requirement and NE will cover the spread because the other teams (Steelers, Eagles) failed to cover. If the system was successful greater than 67% of the time, I would bet on the Bengals to cover. 57% success means 43% failure. Silly, but it is rare for any system to work 100% of the time, and this is a rather unusual play.

Sure, but if this angle is truly going to hit 57% going forward (and my thought would be that it won't, though it most likely will be profitable) -- Then it doesn't matter what happened with the other 2 games this weekend, it's still a 57% play.

If you flip a quarter and it lands heads 12 times in a row, the odds of heads hitting the next flip (assuming a fair coin) are still 50%

LT Profits · 10-01-07, 02:16 PM

pokernut,

You are right and i just checked to see why Dallas was not picked up in my records when it hit me: The record posted is for road faves that won their last game at home by MORE THAN 10 points.

OOOPS!

That means this angle is actually for teams that won their last game by 11 points or more, and Dallas won by exactly 10 on opening week. FYI, if we refine the system to be purely double-diigt wins (i.e., by 10 points or more), the fade record is 286-214-12, 57.2% ATS.

LT Profits · 10-01-07, 02:19 PM

I corrected the wording in post #1.

jon13009 · 10-01-07, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by durito

Sure, but if this angle is truly going to hit 57% going forward (and my thought would be that it won't, though it most likely will be profitable) -- Then it doesn't matter what happened with the other 2 games this weekend, it's still a 57% play.

If you flip a quarter and it lands heads 12 times in a row, the odds of heads hitting the next flip (assuming a fair coin) are still 50%

Ah the Gambler's fallacy! I knew I was wrong somewhere.....

Thanks for the clarification.

LT Profits · 10-01-07, 02:34 PM

This Angle works GREAT on Mondays!

Originally posted by LT Profits

My gut feeling is that this angle works BETTER in Monday Night games because those lines are generally already skewed against the favorites anyway. That said, I will take a look at this in a bit.

Using the "won by 11 points or more" criteria, this angle is 25-9-1, 73.5% on Mondays!

In fact, the angle is 29-22-1, 63.9% in all non-Sunday games.

SBR Lou · 10-01-07, 05:36 PM

Cool thread bro. I think it should be noted though, just for people newer to betting, these trends shouldn't make a decision for you. This is a very streaky game with few games per year. It's advisable to keep very detailed records, but approach each bet by itself. Consider some of the intangibles, try to correlate the data you've recorded to the game in your own unique way. Just blindly following the same information everyone else can access is a bad idea.

MJFtheGenius · 10-01-07, 06:02 PM

i dont like trends like this personaly.

durito · 10-01-07, 06:14 PM

LT, I notice this trend doesn't perform at all, if the team won by more than 21 the week before. about 50% i think.

Which would mean it works especially well against teams that won by 11-21pts.