Week 4 NFL - The Chart

[nep1293]

Week 3 Record (4-9-3 , 30.77%)
Yearly Record (21-21-6 , 50.00%)

Week 3 sucked. The Ravens, Raiders, Redskins, Colts all blew big leads. The Vikings and the Bengals could have easily been winners too. The only luck that was on our side was the Dolphins coming back for the push against the Jets. I usually like to look back at the week and measure the lucky wins vs bad losses. There aren't going to be too many weeks when all those teams blow the covers. So I really don't feel too bad about Week 3.

WEEK 4 PICKS
Raiders (+5) @ Dolphins ..... 57.80%
Texans @ Falcons (+3) ..... 51.62%
Ravens (-4.5) @ Browns ..... 65.54%
Bears @ Lions (+3) ..... 51.62%
Packers (-1) @ Vikings ..... 60.09%
Rams (+11) @ Cowboys ..... 56.34%
Jets @ Bills (+2.5) ..... 54.34%
Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Panthers ..... 61.65%
Seahawks (-1.5) @ 49ers ..... 60.09%
Steelers @ Cardinals (+5) ..... 66.88%
Chiefs (+12) @ Chargers ..... 53.31%
Broncos @ Colts (-9.5) ..... 56.30%
Eagles @ Giants (+3) ..... 51.62%
Patriots (-6) @ Bengals ..... 72.03%

[nep1293]

Barring some wild finishes in these late games, It's a 10-2 week. No crap like last week, just a bunch of winners that looked good from start to finish. Hopefully some of you guys got in on these.

[austintx05]

nice man...i still dont understand the %'s

[nep1293]

They are the expected win % of each game. The higher the percent the more success those point spreads have had in the past. Home +3 has been almost 50-50, Road -1 has been a 60% winner.

[austintx05]

ok...so just based on the opening number?

and how for back does your data go to support this?

[nep1293]

Yeah, just based on the opening lines. This is the 6th season of data. The first year was 2002, when they expanded to 32 teams.

[pokernut9999]

looks good so far nep,good job again

[nep1293]

looks good so far nep,good job again

thanks poker, just got to keep plugging away each week and keep the faith in the system.