Interesting theories LT.
Betting against NFL teams off a loss in September
09/20/2007 09:24 AM
By: LT Profits Sports Group
Playing against home favorites after a loss in September has proven to be a lucrative angle over the years, winning at a 58.5 percent clip since 1985. Tightening up this simple angle with a couple of qualifiers improves that winning percentage even more, and there are enough plays each week to keep bettors happy.
Many times, September NFL lines are the loosest lines of the whole year, as many of them are set more on reputation until the oddsmakers get a better read on the teams in the months ahead.
To that end, you will oftentimes see teams that are coming off of a loss set as favorites, especially at home, particularly if they are public teams or teams perceived to be better than they performed the previous week. While at times this is true, and those clubs do improve once in a while, 22 years of data supports the theory that for the most part, teams that lost their previous game during the month September are terrible bets as home favorites in their next game.
We have found three scenarios that have produced a winning percentage of over 58 percent against the spread since 1985, and believe it or not, all of these angles were perfect in Week 2 of the NFL season last week!
Theory 1: Play against all home favorites in September coming off of a straight up loss.
Yes this angle seems quite simplistic, but it is still one of the best early season approaches we have ever come across, going a wallet filling 158-112-11, 58.5 percent since 1985. Simple or not, 58.5 percent over 270 decisions in 22 years is nothing to scoff at. Furthermore, their were six qualifying plays for this angle last week, as Baltimore, Chicago, Jacksonville, the New York Giants, Philadelphia and St. Louis were all home favorites after losing outright on opening weekend. Well, fading these teams like the angle said produced a perfect 6-0 mark ATS.
Theory 2: Play against all home favorites in September coming off of a SU and ATS loss.
The difference between this angle and the first one is that the teams must have lost both on the field and against the spread in the previous week. Fading these teams in September has produced a 128-88-9 record ATS since 1985 for an excellent 59.3 success rate. While it is true that has fewer plays than the first angle, we still feel that 216 decisions in 22 years is a large enough sample to be significant. Also, since all six teams that qualified last week under Theory 1 also lost ATS in Week 1, Theory 2 produced an identical 6-0 ATS mark in Week 2.
Theory 3: Play against all home favorites in September coming off of a SU loss of 10 points or more.
This angle is almost the same as Theory 1, except that the loss the prior week had to be by double-digits. Well, fading these double-digit losers as September home favorites has produced a 79-50-6, 61.2 percent ATS mark since 1985. Some may consider 129 decisions a borderline sample size for 22 years worth of data, but that phenomenal win rate is certainly encouraging. Of the six fades that qualified under our first two angles, three of them (Chicago, New York Giants, St. Louis) lost by double-digits in Week 1, meaning Theory 3 went 3-0 ATS last week.
Well, there are still two more NFL weekends left in September 2007, so it is not too late to take advantage of these simple yet very effective angles. For the record, there are six more qualifiers this coming weekend under Theory 1 (play against Kansas City, New Orleans, New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia and Seattle if they remain favorites), three qualifiers under Theory 2 (fade New Orleans, Philadelphia and Seattle) and two qualifiers under Theory 3 (Kansas City, New Orleans).
09/20/2007 09:24 AM
By: LT Profits Sports Group
Playing against home favorites after a loss in September has proven to be a lucrative angle over the years, winning at a 58.5 percent clip since 1985. Tightening up this simple angle with a couple of qualifiers improves that winning percentage even more, and there are enough plays each week to keep bettors happy.
Many times, September NFL lines are the loosest lines of the whole year, as many of them are set more on reputation until the oddsmakers get a better read on the teams in the months ahead.
To that end, you will oftentimes see teams that are coming off of a loss set as favorites, especially at home, particularly if they are public teams or teams perceived to be better than they performed the previous week. While at times this is true, and those clubs do improve once in a while, 22 years of data supports the theory that for the most part, teams that lost their previous game during the month September are terrible bets as home favorites in their next game.
We have found three scenarios that have produced a winning percentage of over 58 percent against the spread since 1985, and believe it or not, all of these angles were perfect in Week 2 of the NFL season last week!
Theory 1: Play against all home favorites in September coming off of a straight up loss.
Yes this angle seems quite simplistic, but it is still one of the best early season approaches we have ever come across, going a wallet filling 158-112-11, 58.5 percent since 1985. Simple or not, 58.5 percent over 270 decisions in 22 years is nothing to scoff at. Furthermore, their were six qualifying plays for this angle last week, as Baltimore, Chicago, Jacksonville, the New York Giants, Philadelphia and St. Louis were all home favorites after losing outright on opening weekend. Well, fading these teams like the angle said produced a perfect 6-0 mark ATS.
Theory 2: Play against all home favorites in September coming off of a SU and ATS loss.
The difference between this angle and the first one is that the teams must have lost both on the field and against the spread in the previous week. Fading these teams in September has produced a 128-88-9 record ATS since 1985 for an excellent 59.3 success rate. While it is true that has fewer plays than the first angle, we still feel that 216 decisions in 22 years is a large enough sample to be significant. Also, since all six teams that qualified last week under Theory 1 also lost ATS in Week 1, Theory 2 produced an identical 6-0 ATS mark in Week 2.
Theory 3: Play against all home favorites in September coming off of a SU loss of 10 points or more.
This angle is almost the same as Theory 1, except that the loss the prior week had to be by double-digits. Well, fading these double-digit losers as September home favorites has produced a 79-50-6, 61.2 percent ATS mark since 1985. Some may consider 129 decisions a borderline sample size for 22 years worth of data, but that phenomenal win rate is certainly encouraging. Of the six fades that qualified under our first two angles, three of them (Chicago, New York Giants, St. Louis) lost by double-digits in Week 1, meaning Theory 3 went 3-0 ATS last week.
Well, there are still two more NFL weekends left in September 2007, so it is not too late to take advantage of these simple yet very effective angles. For the record, there are six more qualifiers this coming weekend under Theory 1 (play against Kansas City, New Orleans, New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia and Seattle if they remain favorites), three qualifiers under Theory 2 (fade New Orleans, Philadelphia and Seattle) and two qualifiers under Theory 3 (Kansas City, New Orleans).
