Thanksgiving Day Picks & Predictions

SBR Andy · 11-26-25, 01:38 PM

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the opening game in his Packers vs Lions prediction:

Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

Game prediction: Packers +2.5 (-102 via BetMGM)

"While the Lions have the sixth-best offensive DVOA, John Morton's unit has been disproportionately over-reliant on Gibbs in recent weeks. Gibbs scored two touchdowns in each of the Lions' last three wins while averaging 166 rushing yards.

Even in the away loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Gibbs accounted for 54% of the Lions' total offensive yards.

The Packers have the ninth-best run defense, via EPA per play, allow the fifth-fewest yards per attempt (tied with three teams) and were responsible for Gibbs' worst rushing game of the season. He had just 19 yards on nine attempts in the 27-13 Week 1 defeat to the Packers.

Gibbs' second-worst performance came at home in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings, which also ended in defeat.

If the Packers can again nullify Gibbs' time and space, it could be a frustrating evening for a Lions offense that has struggled recently to find alternative answers.

In addition, Detroit's perceived aura of invincibility at Ford Field looked shaky in the last two weeks, with Dan Campbell's team escaping embarrassment against the New York Giants while allowing 27 points in the previous game to a Vikings team that hadn't scored that many since Week 3."

Best prop bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 74.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365)

"I'm backing the Packers to frustrate Gibbs for the second time this season. Green Bay's defensive game plan will likely focus on preventing the Lions' superstar from breaking it open and gaining chunk yards. If successful, they will force Detroit to find alternative solutions.

Gibbs went under 74.5 rushing yards in four of the previous seven games and six of 11 overall."

Packers vs. Lions odds

Packers vs. Lions betting trends

SBR Andy · 11-26-25, 01:41 PM

SBR's Matt Jacob shares his best bets in his Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 52 (-110 via BetMGM)

Game prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

"Both the Chiefs and Cowboys overcame double-digit deficits in Week 12 to pull out season-saving home victories against first-place opponents. And both have near-identical records (Kansas City is 6-5; Dallas is 5-5-1). Translation: This is a difficult handicap.

In the end, though, I trust the Cowboys and their offense more than I do Kansas City. That's a somewhat crazy statement, considering Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is healthy. The fact is, the Cowboys have scored 24 points or more in eight of 10 games since Week 2. Conversely, since averaging 30.8 points during a 5-1 surge from Weeks 3-8, the Chiefs have only tallied 21, 19, and 20 points in regulation.

The Cowboys also have been profitable as an underdog this season, going 4-1 ATS. The only hiccup: a 44-22 road loss to the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, Kansas City hasn’t covered a single point spread in exactly a month and hasn’t covered a point spread on the road since a 22-9 win at the Giants on Sept. 21. The Chiefs’ record in their other four games away from Arrowhead Stadium? 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS - all as a favorite."

Best prop bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"The Cowboys’ front seven has tightened things up over the past two weeks, limiting the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders to 90 total net rushing yards. But QB Jalen Hurts got loose for a team-high 33 yards last week, this after compiling 62 yards in the season opener.

In between, Dallas struggled to contain Green Bay QB Jordan Love (three carries, 28 yards); Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (eight carries, 35 yards); and New York Jets QB Justin Fields (seven carries, 26 yards). Even old men Russell Wilson and Geno Smith turned seven combined totes into 37 yards.

So my Thanksgiving prediction is that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will utilize his legs multiple times - be it on designed runs or improvisational escapes from the pocket.

Keep in mind that four teams - the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Broncos - held Mahomes to 15 combined rushing yards. His rushing yards in his other seven starts? 303 - including at least 28 in each contest."

Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds

Chiefs vs. Cowboys betting trends

SBR Andy · 11-26-25, 01:45 PM

SBR's Phil Wood previews the late game in his Bengals vs Ravens prediction:

Game prediction: Ravens -7 (+100 via bet365)

Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 (-110 via bet365)

"With Joe Burrow returning for the Bengals on Thursday night, the total has gone up from 51.5 to 52.5 at most betting sites. Considering how bad the Bengals’ defense has been, and how explosive the offense has been at times, even without Burrow, I’m still expecting this game to go Over the projected total.

Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three consecutive games, managing just one touchdown and two interceptions during that span. However, the Bengals are allowing 259.8 passing yards per game, and they’ve given up a league-high 26 passing touchdowns.

If Jackson struggles again, the Ravens will still score plenty, as Derrick Henry will have no problem exploiting a rush defense that is allowing 156.0 yards per game (31st).

The only reason this isn’t a five-star play is that it’s still unknown just how healthy Burrow is. Plus, the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 20 points since Week 5, but they’ve also played four consecutive opponents ranked 24th or worse in scoring."

Best prop bet: Mark Andrews to score a touchdown (+115 via bet365)

"The Bengals rank 32nd in yards allowed (962), touchdowns allowed (13), yards allowed per reception (12.6), and they’re tied for last in receptions allowed (76) to tight ends this season.

Andrews is second on the Ravens with 33 receptions and 285 yards. He leads the team in touchdown receptions with five. Andrews has just one game with more than 34 yards receiving this season, but oddsmakers are so confident in him that they have his total set at 37.5 receiving yards anyway."

Bengals vs. Ravens odds

Bengals vs. Ravens betting trends

️Bengals vs. Ravens weather

It will be windy and cold in Baltimore on Thursday night. Wind gusts are expected to reach up to 29 mph, while temperatures are expected to dip into the 20s with a RealFeel of 15 degrees.

SBR Andy · 11-27-25, 10:56 AM

SBR's Esten McLaren shares his Thanksgiving anytime touchdown scorer predictions:

Packers vs Lions TD Picks:

Christian Watson, WR, Packers (+200 FanDuel)

"Watson scored twice two weeks ago - in his fourth game of the season - before being held to 49 yards on five catches (seven receptions) against a much stronger Minnesota Vikings defense. Well, the competition steps down once again against the Detroit Lions and their "break, don't bend secondary".

The Lions have held receivers to a 57.7% catch rate but have allowed 15 touchdowns to the position - more than all but one team. Green Bay's a short underdog in a game with a 48.5-point Over/Under, suggesting a pass-heavier game script than usual for QB Jordan Love in the friendly confines of Ford Field."

Ross Dwelley, TE, Lions (+550 Caesars)

"Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (back) remains out due to injury and is likely to miss the rest of the season. Backup Brock Wright was ruled out later Wednesday afternoon, so in steps veteran Ross Dwelley.

The Packers allow a 76.4% catch rate to tight ends and have given up five touchdowns to the position through 11 games, and the defensive unit is stronger against receivers. I'm turning to my attention to a big body in the red zone for this key NFC North rivalry game, as both teams still vie for the division title alongside the Chicago Bears."

Chiefs vs Cowboys TD Picks:

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs (+220 FanDuel)

"I contemplated taking six Chiefs players for this article, but ultimately opted to mix up my anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 18 touchdowns, 9.75 yards per target, and a 69.3% catch rate to receivers. They're also in a prime letdown spot at home on Thanksgiving after beating the rival Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday."

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (+220 FanDuel)

"The Chiefs' 82.5% catch rate allowed to tight ends is worse than all but one team. Somehow, they've held the position to three scores through 11 games, but Ferguson has turned six of his 19 red-zone targets into touchdowns.

The fourth-year pro already has a career-high seven touchdowns on the season on an 84.4% catch rate. He scored two weeks ago, and I'm betting on him to get in the end zone again in the game with the highest betting total of the day."

Bengals vs Ravens TD Picks:

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (-120 DraftKings)

"Yes, I'm taking the minus-money odds for Chase to score in his return from suspension. How strange it is that his return aligns with QB Joe Burrow's injury recovery, and that both happen on Thanksgiving night? Ratings, schmatings.

The NFL's best bromance reunites not in time to salvage the team's lost 3-8 season, but it could be in time to deal a harmful blow to the rival Baltimore Ravens' playoff hopes. Baltimore enters Thanksgiving at 6-5 and atop the AFC North, but they'll face the best Bengals team that's taken the field yet this season."

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (+230 Caesars)

"I was surprised to find out that Jackson has just two rushing touchdowns against the Bengals in his career. But they're yet to meet on Thanksgiving night, with the Ravens having won four straight games.

Jackson hasn't scored a touchdown himself since returning from injury, and has just one on the year (Week 1). While he's far removed from the NFL MVP odds race, he and his teammates will surely take the opportunity to beat a hated division rival handily, and try to keep us from slipping into our tryptophan-induced early bedtimes."

NFL anytime TD scorer parlay

Christian Watson, WR, Packers: +200
Ross Dwelley, TE, Lions: +550
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs: +220
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys: +220
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals: -125
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens: +220

Best odds: +94183 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9,418.39)

SBR Andy · 11-27-25, 11:01 AM

SBR's Liam Fox has his best Thanksgiving player prop bets ready to go:

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 108.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118 via FanDuel)

"Jahmyr Gibbs just about single-handedly won last week's game for the Detroit Lions against the New York Giants. It was his second game of the season of 200-plus yards from scrimmage. And the star running back has gone Over this total in five of his last six games.

After totalling just 50 yards in the first matchup against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, I'm backing an in-form Gibbs to play with an attitude this time around in a huge NFC North tilt."

Rashee Rice Over 6.5 receptions (-106 via FanDuel)

"Rashee Rice landed on the injury report early this week but was a full participant in Tuesday's practice. With the Chiefs still in must-win mode, I expect him to suit up and receive a heavy workload in Dallas on Thursday.

Rice has gone Over this total in three of his five appearances this season, including an eight-reception, 141-yard performance last weekend. He has a team-leading 25.97% target share, more than 7 percentage points higher than the next-closest Chiefs pass-catcher (Travis Kelce). And Rice gets a favorable matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 25th or worse in completions and completion percentage allowed."

Ja'Marr Chase To score anytime touchdown (-120 via FanDuel) 

"Joe Burrow returns for his first start since mid-September, just in time to play the rival Ravens. That's welcome news for Ja'Marr Chase, who has an excellent track record against Baltimore with eight touchdowns in eight career games against his AFC North rivals - including a three-touchdown performance last season in Baltimore.

While Burrow may not be at his best in his first game back, you know he's going to give Chase plenty of chances to score on Thursday night, especially with Tee Higgins missing the prime-time contest with a concussion."

NFL Thanksgiving player prop parlay:

1st leg: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 108.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)
2nd leg: Rashee Rice Over 6.5 receptions (-106)
3rd leg: Ja'Marr Chase to score anytime touchdown (-120)

Best odds: +558 via FanDuel ($10 to win $55.80)

SBR Andy · 11-27-25, 11:06 AM

The SBR betting analysts have combined to cook up a Thanksgiving parlay for FanDuel's 'Pass the Leg' promo:

Best Thanksgiving parlay bets:

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers: To score anytime touchdown (-120)
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions: Over 109.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs: 60+ receiving yards (+230)
George Pickens, WR, Cowboys: To score anytime touchdown (+145)
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals: Over 251.5 passing yards (-114)
Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens: To score anytime touchdown (+270)

Parlay odds: +13693 via FanDuel ($10 to win $1,369.30)

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers: To score anytime touchdown (-120)

LJ Blut: "Jacobs will be returning as the bell-cow back for the Packers on Thanksgiving. He’s been a red-zone monster this season and has already rushed for 11 touchdowns in only 10 games. He has scored in eight of those 10 contests - including in Week 1 against Detroit - and he was injured in the first quarter of one of those two outlier games. The Lions allowed 27 points to the lowly Giants last week, and I expect the Packers to put up points on this defense, too. That should give Jacobs plenty of opportunities to cash the first leg of this parlay."

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions: Over 109.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)

Liam Fox: "Gibbs just about single-handedly won last week's game for the Lions against the Giants. It was his second game of the season of 200-plus yards from scrimmage, and the star running back has gone Over this total in five of his last six games. After totaling just 50 yards in the first matchup against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, I'm backing an in-form Gibbs to play with an attitude this time around in a huge NFC North tilt."

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs: 60+ receiving yards (+230)

Esten McLaren: "Worthy's standard receiving line is set at 39.5 yards against the Cowboys with equal -114 odds on either side. While he's topped that line just four times this season and hit 60+ just once, he was targeted seven or more times in three of his last four games and had a long of 31 yards en route to a 59-yard game last week. The Cowboys allow receivers to haul in 69.3% of their targets and average 9.75 yards per target (and 14.1 yards per reception). The 52.5-point Over/Under is the highest on the entire Week 13 slate, so I'm expecting Worthy to play his part as QBs Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott exchange deep shots in the second half."

George Pickens, WR, Cowboys: To score anytime touchdown (+145)

C Jackson Cowart: "While CeeDee Lamb is the spiritual No. 1 receiver in this offense, Pickens has looked like the best receiver in football the last two weeks with at least nine catches for 144 yards and a touchdown in each contest. He's been a touchdown machine all season long, ranking third in the NFL with eight TDs and scoring in seven of his 11 games thus far. So I'm surprised to see him dealing at these odds, which imply a roughly 40% chance that he'll reach the end zone in what should be a high-scoring affair."

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals: Over 251.5 passing yards (-114)

Dustin Saracini: "Yup, I'm drinking the Burrow Kool-Aid in his first game back. He couldn't have asked for a better spot, either, going up against a bottom-10 pass defense allowing 22 completions per game. It helps that Lamar Jackson and Co. are primed to put up a ton of points against the Bengals’ pass defense, too. With Ja'Marr Chase back for a game projected for 52 points, Burrow should fly over this number."

‍Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens: To score anytime touchdown (+270)

Andrew Reid: "You'd like to see higher odds for a player who hasn't found pay dirt all season, but this is likely the week for the Ravens tight end. Cincinnati has been abysmal against tight ends all season, giving up twice as many scores per game on average to the position (1.2 per game) as the next-worst team. Likely had a respectable six regular-season TDs last year, so his presence in the end zone isn't unheard of. He's been targeted a couple times inside the 5-yard line already this season, so this could be the week he cashes in."

SBR Andy · 11-27-25, 11:59 AM

Updated NFL Thanksgiving betting at BetMGM:

Most bet props ️
1. Christian Watson Over 54.5 Receiving yards
2. Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions made
3. Isiah Pacheco Under 32.5 Rushing yards
4. Jahmyr Gibbs Over 36.5 Receiving yards
5. Xavier Worthy Over 38.5 Receiving yards

Most bet players to score a TD ️
1. Jahmyr Gibbs -165
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown +105
3. Kareem Hunt +130
4. Patrick Mahomes +450
5. Christian Watson +210

Most bet players to score 1st TD ️
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) +400
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +650
3. Jameson Williams (DET) +1000
4. David Montgomery (Det) +900
5. Josh Jacobs (GB) +550

SBR Andy · 11-27-25, 12:03 PM

Thanksgiving Day betting insights from DraftKings:

Vene1616 · 11-27-25, 01:32 PM

The early game is going WAY under