Thanksgiving Day Picks & Predictions

SBR Andy · 2025-11-26T18:38:36+00:00

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the opening game in his Packers vs Lions prediction:

Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

Game prediction: Packers +2.5 (-102 via BetMGM)

"While the Lions have the sixth-best offensive DVOA, John Morton's unit has been disproportionately over-reliant on Gibbs in recent weeks. Gibbs scored two touchdowns in each of the Lions' last three wins while averaging 166 rushing yards.

Even in the away loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Gibbs accounted for 54% of the Lions' total offensive yards.

The Packers have the ninth-best run defense, via EPA per play, allow the fifth-fewest yards per attempt (tied with three teams) and were responsible for Gibbs' worst rushing game of the season. He had just 19 yards on nine attempts in the 27-13 Week 1 defeat to the Packers.

Gibbs' second-worst performance came at home in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings, which also ended in defeat.

If the Packers can again nullify Gibbs' time and space, it could be a frustrating evening for a Lions offense that has struggled recently to find alternative answers.

In addition, Detroit's perceived aura of invincibility at Ford Field looked shaky in the last two weeks, with Dan Campbell's team escaping embarrassment against the New York Giants while allowing 27 points in the previous game to a Vikings team that hadn't scored that many since Week 3."

Best prop bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 74.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365)

"I'm backing the Packers to frustrate Gibbs for the second time this season. Green Bay's defensive game plan will likely focus on preventing the Lions' superstar from breaking it open and gaining chunk yards. If successful, they will force Detroit to find alternative solutions.

Gibbs went under 74.5 rushing yards in four of the previous seven games and six of 11 overall."

Packers vs. Lions odds

Packers vs. Lions betting trends

SBR Andy · 2025-11-26T18:41:54+00:00

SBR's Matt Jacob shares his best bets in his Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 52 (-110 via BetMGM)

Game prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

"Both the Chiefs and Cowboys overcame double-digit deficits in Week 12 to pull out season-saving home victories against first-place opponents. And both have near-identical records (Kansas City is 6-5; Dallas is 5-5-1). Translation: This is a difficult handicap.

In the end, though, I trust the Cowboys and their offense more than I do Kansas City. That's a somewhat crazy statement, considering Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is healthy. The fact is, the Cowboys have scored 24 points or more in eight of 10 games since Week 2. Conversely, since averaging 30.8 points during a 5-1 surge from Weeks 3-8, the Chiefs have only tallied 21, 19, and 20 points in regulation.

The Cowboys also have been profitable as an underdog this season, going 4-1 ATS. The only hiccup: a 44-22 road loss to the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, Kansas City hasn’t covered a single point spread in exactly a month and hasn’t covered a point spread on the road since a 22-9 win at the Giants on Sept. 21. The Chiefs’ record in their other four games away from Arrowhead Stadium? 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS - all as a favorite."

Best prop bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"The Cowboys’ front seven has tightened things up over the past two weeks, limiting the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders to 90 total net rushing yards. But QB Jalen Hurts got loose for a team-high 33 yards last week, this after compiling 62 yards in the season opener.

In between, Dallas struggled to contain Green Bay QB Jordan Love (three carries, 28 yards); Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (eight carries, 35 yards); and New York Jets QB Justin Fields (seven carries, 26 yards). Even old men Russell Wilson and Geno Smith turned seven combined totes into 37 yards.

So my Thanksgiving prediction is that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will utilize his legs multiple times - be it on designed runs or improvisational escapes from the pocket.

Keep in mind that four teams - the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Broncos - held Mahomes to 15 combined rushing yards. His rushing yards in his other seven starts? 303 - including at least 28 in each contest."

Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds

Chiefs vs. Cowboys betting trends

SBR Andy · 2025-11-26T18:45:06+00:00

SBR's Phil Wood previews the late game in his Bengals vs Ravens prediction:

Game prediction: Ravens -7 (+100 via bet365)

Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 (-110 via bet365)

"With Joe Burrow returning for the Bengals on Thursday night, the total has gone up from 51.5 to 52.5 at most betting sites. Considering how bad the Bengals’ defense has been, and how explosive the offense has been at times, even without Burrow, I’m still expecting this game to go Over the projected total.

Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three consecutive games, managing just one touchdown and two interceptions during that span. However, the Bengals are allowing 259.8 passing yards per game, and they’ve given up a league-high 26 passing touchdowns.

If Jackson struggles again, the Ravens will still score plenty, as Derrick Henry will have no problem exploiting a rush defense that is allowing 156.0 yards per game (31st).

The only reason this isn’t a five-star play is that it’s still unknown just how healthy Burrow is. Plus, the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 20 points since Week 5, but they’ve also played four consecutive opponents ranked 24th or worse in scoring."

Best prop bet: Mark Andrews to score a touchdown (+115 via bet365)

"The Bengals rank 32nd in yards allowed (962), touchdowns allowed (13), yards allowed per reception (12.6), and they’re tied for last in receptions allowed (76) to tight ends this season.

Andrews is second on the Ravens with 33 receptions and 285 yards. He leads the team in touchdown receptions with five. Andrews has just one game with more than 34 yards receiving this season, but oddsmakers are so confident in him that they have his total set at 37.5 receiving yards anyway."

Bengals vs. Ravens odds

Bengals vs. Ravens betting trends

️Bengals vs. Ravens weather

It will be windy and cold in Baltimore on Thursday night. Wind gusts are expected to reach up to 29 mph, while temperatures are expected to dip into the 20s with a RealFeel of 15 degrees.